R.C.,
General Delivery,
Nakusp,
Canada.
Dear Father:
Thanks for yours of last week. Uncle George has made arrangements at Prince Rupert. First special consignment will come on the river per your arrangement with Chief Richards from Boat Encampment. From there by road to the border. Pickup at the Nakusp safe house will be by a truck in smelter livery although drivers will be your dacoits. I have forwarded your rough of the restaurant lease to our solictors in Vancouver, as it would be a shame if the Chews lost money on the cover venture due to excessive rent.
You asked about our vacation. Uncle Henry has been thrusting a flying vacation down to Rio by Pan Am on us for months, but we have persuaded him that this would be far too much of a bus man's holiday after all the flying we have done during the war. Instead, I will be going on one of ours to Hongkong. James will join me there after the postmortem on the last bomb shot of the year. (This is a secret. The Americans are being a bit evasive about just how large their inventory of a-bombs is.) He apparently cannot be spared, as this will be the underwater shot, and everyone is very interested in the effects of the shock on machinery. One of the German cruisers with the finicky steam pipes will be in the target area, so potentially quite interesting with all the talk of high pressure steam.
So James and, in a late addition to the plan, your younges, will join me probably on the 11th, and we will all see the old town before taking a more leisurely cruise home courtesy of Canadian Pacific. This will have us back in San Francisco in time to send the boy off to the Institute, and hover uselessly as "Miss V.C." moves back into her college residence.
Speaking of your youngest, I had a rather nice compliment directed his way last week. The Engineer's youngest's step-brother up in the Bay area stopped by to pick up the Lincoln, which he had agreed to drive down to LA for his brother, who apparently feels some need to put on airs. (And, understandably, he is a little attached to the car he bought with his first acting job!) Your youngest, I suppose, knew that this day would come. I'm told that he was downright philosophical when James broke the news. However --the compliment! The step-brother said that Lincoln is running better than it did when his brother brought it to Des Moines in '39! I know that I have enjoyed driving it, and it is quite the let-down as I make the rounds of the dealerships in Lieutenant A's old Model T trying on the sad offerings of 1946. (Uncle George thinks I should bring a Rolls over, but that is far and away too ostentatious for me!)
I will be bringing the twins with me to meet their grandfather, but Victoria is too young to travel, and we are leaving her with Judith. I am torn about this, as a mother should be, but I will be in no position to travel next year!
"GRACE."
Flight, 4 July 1946
Leaders
“And Tails You
Lose” The Government is BUNGLING charter airlines.
“Prices and
Passports” The cost of long-distance air travel is not excessive, as proven by
the fact that a first-class fare on Queen
Elizabeth will be £90, while the current single air fare is £93, at which
point the only reason to take a boat is that you’re afraid of flying and the
fuss over passports at the airport, which is why the paper hopes that we can
get rid of this rubbish of passports and visas, and go back to letting anyone
who looks like they deserve to travel, travel, while everyone else sneaks
around in the holds of ships.
By Queen_Elizabethaa.JPG: Roland Godefroyderivative work: User:G-13114 - Queen_Elizabethaa.JPG, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=19493288 |
“At
Farnborough” The paper is put out that
the unwashed masses of regular newspapers were invited to the Farnborough show
and now have almost as much formerly top secret “gen” as the paper. Also, these
tricycle undercarriages might be here to stay.
“Farnborough
Display” the paper saw a Short Sturgeon. From Rolls-Royce came a Trent,
complete with its new Rotol airscrew. Bristol showed a sectioned Centaurus and
Hercules 230 engines, which will give 2500hp, “as soon as better fuels become
available.” The Theseus was also shown. De Havilland had a Goblin and the new
Gipsy Major, which was fitted with a “small, manually operated variable-pitch
airscrew.” Alvis showed its 500hp Leonidas, and Blackburn its Cirrus Minor and
Major. Metrovick had its F2 axial-flow gas turbine, and a model of the F3, with
ducted-fan thrust augmentor. Napier had a sectioned Sabre VII. Saunders-Roe had
models of a massive, six-engined flying boat, and a single-seat jet fighter
flying boat, to use two of the Metro-Vick axial-flow units under the wing
roots.
Oh, sure, why not? |
Handley Page showed a mock-up of the fuselage of the Hermes, and Miles a
model ofo its M.52 experimental transonic research projectile. “A model showd
it to have square-cut wings with no sweep-back, the design having been prepared
before the results of German research became available.” There is also
apparently a Vickers rocket-propelled transonic research rocket.
Various guns were
shown, ranging from the Lewis Gun through the Mark V Hispano, which various
oddities such as the 40mm Vickers “S” and Rolls-Royce guns. Hangar exhibits
included the Bristol B.17 turret with twin Hispanos. There were gyro
gun-sights, “carrier units,” and a smoke screen bomb, but it was not possible
to “show the mechanism of the remotely controlled barbettes, each with two 20mm
cannons, as fited to an experimental Lancaster . . . .” Radios, cameras,
“speed-printing” units, a mobile decompression chamber, supply containers, and
radios including a Consol unit were shown, as well as the A.S. 60 high-speed
transport development of the Ambassador.
Vickers S gun mounted in Hawker Hurricane |
Here and There
An Argentinian
airline has ordered three Tudor IIs and three Yorks to compete over the same
Atlantic route as British South American. The Aeronautical Engineers
Association of Whitby has petitioned to be recognised as a trade union. The XB-35 has had its first
test flight, and the XB-36 exists some more. The paper is taken with the fact
that the office equipment of the European and Cetnral Inland Transport
organisation of Cooks was recently flown from London to Paris in three Ju52
trips. H. F. King has been given an OBE, although not for his articles,
thankfully.
“High Altitude
Research: German Decrompression Chambers: The Medical Aspect” The Germans built
a decompression chamber for experimenting with the medical effects of low
atmosphere. Pictures are included.
“Cierva ‘Air
Horse’” Cierva has built a helicopter with three rotors out on booms, driven by
a Merlin XXI in the centre through two drives. It is for eliminating “pests,”
which is a very cruel thing to say about helicopter pilots. “There is every
prospect of success with this seemingly ambitious project,” the paper loyally
says. The paper goes on to point out that the unusual use of the “Air Horse”
justifies its unorthodox design. Specifically, it dumps all the pesticide
quickly and then gets back to the ground again before any of its
rapidly-spinning bits fails. Although the paper then goes on to speculate on
scaled up versions that presumably will be expected to stay in the air for a
longer time.
It's not that funny given that the W. 11 did crash, and did kill three men, but they really should have seen it coming. I think even Flight does. |
Next, the paper
scheduled a story about “Models in Britain,” but all the good ones got
accreditation to Bikini along with Charm,
so instead the paper had to run a bit about grown-up boys playing with toy
planes.
B. J. Hurren, “Cairo
Cameo: Suez Canal and Three-Dimensional Defence: Cyprus as an Aircraft Carrier:
More Passengers by Air than Ship” Good old B.J, as I like to call him, is tired
of starting articles about the Fleet Air Arm in the war by talking about things
that happened in the 1920s until he only has a paragraph to fill. So off he
goes to Egypt, where he can start with pyramids! But this can only distract him
for so long, as he has been waiting for his airplane to leave for six hours
now, and he is getting hot and bothered. So he wanders around his various
points: atomic bombs can blow up the Canal; they can only come from Russia;
Cyrpus is between Russia and the Canal, so Britain should keep it; Egyptians
think that the English are obnoxiously racist; lots of airlines may be routed
through Egypt in the future; people should invest in hotels in Cairo; Egyptians
are likely to be impressed by giant factories; Cairo is nice, except for the
squalid native quarters. Oops! There’s my plane! The End.
Civil Aviation
BOAC’s Constellations restart its Atlantic
service on Monday, 1 July. KLM will start a Holland-Buenos Aires service in
July. Several charter airlines and airfields are now operational. Transcanada
promises to continue to land at Prestwick on its flights from Montreal to London. Several companies are running car hire
services at London Airport and Northolt. The Meterological Service is in
trouble in Parliament for “misleading the public.” American airlines lost money
last year. Northwest Airlines has ordered forty Martin 303s. There might be an
international airworthiness certificate in the future.
“The Navarro Naiad” Someone no-one has ever heard of proposes to build an amphibian of
unusual design. He has a model!
“Fedden Engines”
Roy Fedden proposes to develop an airscrew-turbine and Flat-Six engine, if
people will just give him enough money. They will be very good engines, he
promises!
Correspondence
R. J. Sullivan
thinks that a decompression chamber would be ideal for treating respiratory
complaints such as whooping cough. “A.E.O.” explains how speed and thrust are
related. Several correspondents think “Indicator” knows what he is talking
about. “SGT,” a sergeant-fitter of ten years experience, explains why the RAF
is having difficulty retaining skilled tradesmen. It is because civilian
work pays more. It is because the RAF is horrible to them!
The Economist, 6 July 1946
Leaders
“Warning from the
West” This week, the paper reports, President and Congress failed to agree on
price controls again. Next week, the House votes on the British loan. (Excuse
me, the “British dollar credit.”) The paper thinks that it would be a mistake
to think that the one was more important than the other, because both are
important, and both will lead infallibly to disaster. “Unless the United States
is willing to buy or lend as much as it sells, no international monetary system
. . . can be expected to work. And unless the United States can achieve a reasonable
degree of relief from the disastrous alternation of booms and slumps. . .”
other countries will be forced to erect tariff barriers to protect them from
American instability. If the OPA is abolished without some kind of price
controls, there will be disaster. So there will be some kind of price controls
until a new OPA act can be passed. In the meantime, America is having a boom.
(The paper proceeds to pull out its copy of the June Fortune and reads from the article about the boom.)
Boom! |
After the boom,
of course, will come the bust, and unless something is done, it will be as bad
as the boom was good. The dangers of inflation will recede, and give way to the
“more permanent enemy of the American way of life, deflation.” At that point,
since there are no other plans, America will lean on its exports, and so
“export unemployment” to the rest of the world. The loan, meanwhile, means that
Britain must “march in lockstep with the American economy.”
In other words,
the fact that everything is going right at the moment means that everything
will be een more horrible soon. Probably before 1950, specifically.
“Housing
Decisions” The government is BUNGLING housing.
“Philippine
Independence” Filipinos want to be independent, but, secretly, like other Latin
Americans (which they really are) not that
independent. The election, which saw the victory of the “Spanish-Tagalog”Roxas over the “Chinese-Visayan Osmena,” was influenced by the suspicion that
Roxas is the preferred American candidate, and will be able to make a better
trade deal.
“Russia’s
Industrial Outlook” The fourth Five Year Plan continues to emphasise heavy
industry above everything else, with a special focus on interior districts. It
also promises a consumer good abundance, but, peering through the numbers, the
paper discerns that projected output is of the order of one pair of shoes and
three pairs of socks or stockings per person per year. The available industry
cannot provide this cornucopia of light goods unless the east Saxon industries
are incorporated in the economic plan, which may well be the Russian objective.
Also, rehabilitation of the devastated regions continues slowly, and oil
production is not projected to recover to its prewar levels until 1949, which
explains Russian forwardness in Iran.
Notes of the Week
“Is Parliament
Overworked?” The Government is moving much too quickly on the Labour Party
election platform, and should slow down and let the MPs all have a breather,
hopefully until after the next election brings the Tories back and saves the
iron and steel industry from terrible, awful nationalisation.
“Better Results
at Paris” Why, it looks as though we shall manage not to have WWIII over theItalian peace treaty. Russia will not get bases in Libya thanks to a Mandate,
nor will Jugoslavia get Trieste and “virtual control of the Adriatic.” On the
other hand, the Russians will probably now expect its allies to stop pushing so
hard in eastern Europe.
“Rebellion in Palestine”
Since the English are going to have to capitulate to American demands for
hundred thousand Jews for Palestine, the paper thinks that it is nice to see
that the British authorities have launched a series of raids against the
Zionist underground, just to show them that the English are still the boss. As
for the Arabs, who are flabbergasted that Britain will take a hundred thousand
Poles, but no Jews, and instead foist them off on Palestine, perhaps some
American money would sweeten their mood.
“The Polish
Revolution” The Polish people have overwhelmingly approved the Government’s
left-wing agenda in the recent “Three Times Yes Poll.” So the British and
American loans and guarantees have been stopped.
“The Broadcasting Decision” Is to put off any changes for another five years. In the mean time,
the BBC can go on being the BBC, only with more money, thanks to the increasing
number of licenses and rising license fees. The paper is pleased by the
prospect of better programming, but would prefer to see unspecified changes.
“The Atom Tests”
“Dressed in all the trappings of an exaggerated and sometimes frivolous
publicity, the first Bikini atom bomb experiment has left rather the impression
of a firework display which slightly misfired.” Also, the Navy probably faked
the results somehow. Also more, the fate of battleships attacked by atomic
bombs matters a lot less than the fate of cities!
“Appeasement in
the Mines” The paper is appalled by the Government’s concession of a five day
week and full pay public holidays, although happy that at least the extra week
of annual vacations has been fought off. The paper admits that these are
reasonable demands that should have been granted eventually, but, right now, in our current critical situation, with
this severe shortage of mining labour, the right solution would have been to
keep all the miners on the job forever.
I hope Mr.
Crowther doesn’t have children.
“The Bread Ration
Debated” The paper is very pleased that the Government is brave enough to
embrace bread rationing, even though it will come back to haunt them in the
general election. Yes, very brave, very necessary, look at the poor Germans,
etc.
Household rationing. Source |
“Disillusion in
Italy” Italy has had a new government for a month, so it is probably time for
those excitable Latins to be disillusioned with the world.
“Bidault Calls an
Economic Conference” Also excitably Latin, the French. (The rapid rise in food
prices might have something to do with it.)
“Friends of the Algerian Manifesto” An Algerian nationalist party made unexpected gains in the
June elections. The paper thinks it might have something to do with the fact
that actual Algerians can vote now. It cautions the French that actual
Algerians might prefer not to be a French colony, and this new “AML” Party
might turn into a pro-independence party, and independence for Algeria would be
BAD.
“New Dutch
Government” Speaking of countries which have had independence movements, let us
move on to one where independence is GOOD. The Catholic Party is in power, and
the Labour Party has agreed to join it in coalition rather than take the
opposition benches with the Communists, as this might legitimate Communism,
which would be bad. Now the new government can get on with the Indonesian
problem, since independence there would be BAD. It is supposed that the Dutch
attempt to scrape up pro-Dutch groups on the outer islands will enjoy very
little support on Java, and so will fail, at which point the Dutch will have to
think of something else to do.
“Operation
Cuckoo?” On consultation, I find that “cuckoo” is the English name for the
ku-chua bird, which the English think is remarkable for stealing nests. In this
case, the British Army is evicting between 20 and 30,000 Germans from the
limited habitable space in Hamburg to make room for army dependents, and the
Germans are most upset, and are having a demonstration, where they sang various
Nazi songs, which shows that if the British don’t treat the Germans better, the
Nazis will be back in no time. There have been 126 hospital admissions for
famine edema in Hamburg in ten days. . . (Also, the paper points out that the
Army is also “reneging on promises” to return housing to assorted people in
Britain.) It’s probably only because I am so sour about Mr. Crowther that I am
imaging him, personally, not being able to get back into his house because some
Colonel Blimp and his wife won’t leave. (If Colonel Blimp has a wife. All that
time he spends in a Turkish bath wrapped in a towel and exercising. . . .)
Shorter Notes
Parliamentary
questions bring out the poor treatment of German prisoners-of-war and interned
civilians. Although treatment has been reasonable given current shortages, a
lack of clothing and blankets led to a rise in the death rate in the coldest
months, and crowding, a meagre diet and a low state of morale is still damaging
health. It was not until March that everyone had a bath, and washing
facilities are still inadequate. The paper wants an inquiry. In happier news,
the London County Council has agreed to preserve the Regent’s Park terraces on
the grounds of architectural distinction.
Seems nice. Source. |
American Survey
“What Price
Housing?” Now that Fortune has had at
the Wyatt plan, I suppose the paper must follow suit. The paper repeats Fortune’s facts, with its own special
brand of callousness. Apparently, the “housing shortage” only turned into a
“Veteran’s Housing Crisis” because all of the newlywed wives want to move out
of “their parental shelters.” Mr. Wyatt is a terrible grandstander
who stole his plan from Chester Bowles, and the real problems are construction
materials, labour, union and contractor featherbedding, and a shortage of
builders willing to build to rent. Prices and rents must rise for the veterans
to find permanent homes, and with the $6000 dollar homes of 1941 selling for
$10,000 in some markets, that rise will be politically painful. An
“administered boom” might not be preferable to a “free market boom.”
American Notes
“Inflation by
Statute” The paper provides a bit more detail on the President’s veto of the
new Federal Price Control Act, and the resulting time-limited enabling act
pushed through Congress. The shutdowns of the Chicago Exchange last week show
just how uncertain the market is. This part of the paper thinks that doing away
with price controls probably won’t be catastrophic.
“Loan Debate
Postponed” The paper again pretends to believe that the loan might not pass.
This time, it is because of the “Zionist lobby.”
“Apathy in the
Primaries” So far, the primaries have been very boring, except for Nebraska.
The paper is hoping for something more lively in Minnesota, where Stassen has
to win if he has any hope of being at the Convention in ’48 to be steamrollered
by the Governor.
“Sherman vs.
Hollywood” The Department of Commerce is getting ready to push antitrust action
against the big studios, but the paper sees that as a bit of a last hurrah for the
Department’s old antitrust activism, which it expects to diminish over the next
few years.
The World Overseas
“Republican
Italy” Italy is a republic, it may soon finally have a peace treaty, and it
gets to keep Trieste. On the other hand, it is still being treated as a country
cousin economically. The paper runs down the new cabinet, and throws in one bit
of good news: the harvest is going to be good.
Free Territory of Trieste |
“Castles in Eire”
The paper’s Dublin correspondent weighs in with a bit about English visitors
coming to enjoy a bit of the old Ireland and buy castles there as summer homes. The
paper ODC that these new “landlords” are a good thing. Instead of extracting
rents from the associated farms and exporting them from Ireland, they will have
just the house, and import money to pay for new (any) plumbing.
“Trade in
Shanghai” Unfortunately, we are still spectators, noses pressed to the glass,
etc. Although Father says that things are going well in Singapore, and there is
now hope for Hong Kong, as Cousin Easton is now there, although he still wants to bring his wife from Canton. . .
The Business World
“Wanted –A Base
Metal Policy” The Government is BUNGLING zinc, copper, etc.
“Canadian
Exchange Controls” Fearing that its current accounts deficit in US dollars
would turn into a flood with the
beginning of the war, Canada imposed exchange controls. Now, a report (already
mentioned by Time) shows how it all
worked out. Swimmingly, the paper says, since Canada was able to lend a great
deal of money to Britain while maintaining and increasing its gold reserves,
and isn’t that the point? The paper is very impressed with this way of dealing
with a trade deficit with the United States.
Hint, hint.
Business Notes
“Tap Holiday
Again” Blah blather interest rates bonds offerings blah. “It is now seen to be
an entirely rational pattern, based on the Daltonian version of the Keynesian
interest rate theory.” I’ve read the whole thing, and all I get from it is that
the Government will pay its way by printing pound notes, but this isn’t a bad
thing, as grumpy old men say in their clubs, because of the “tap” of interest
rates bonds blather blather. I am pretty sure that I would understand what was
going on perfectly well if the paper would just explain it instead of using all
of these metaphors that assume that I have been following the column for
twenty years or more.
“Falling Expenditure”
ON the other hand, it is perfectly clear that Government expenditures are
falling faster than expected, and that revenues are surprisingly high. (A gain
of £17 million against an anticipated decline of 123!
In other news,
railway directors and stockholders turn out to be against nationalisation.
Industry is still “distorted” by the war, with employment still low in textiles
and high in metals and engineering. Oil production has risen from 270 million
tons in 1938 to 372 million tons in 1945, says Shell, mainly on the strength of
the Americans, and Shell’s retiring director takes the occasion to call
for the end of the Petroleum Board and free trade in oil. The recent
raise in seamen’s wages in the United States is a further indication that the
Americans are not going to drive us off the seas tomorrow with overpriced,
badly built ships sailed by men who would much rather be working in a factory
in Los Angeles and going home to their families at night. (Possibly in their
in-laws basements.) Argentina cannot sell its linseed
oil, because America has an option on the rest of its production after the
10,000t sale to Russia, and America is not offering anywhere near the same
price as Unrra negotiated for the Russians, who are eager to buy more at the
same price because THE RUSSIANS ARE STARVING HELLO WHAT IN HEAVEN’ S NAME IS
WRONG WITH YOU?
Hmm, Linoleum tiles, or starving peasants? Tough call! |
Wool auctions are resuming.
Flight, 11 July 1946
Leaders
“Transonic Research
by Rocket and Radar” Rockets, perhaps unmanned and radio-controlled, will make
short work of transonic research.
“Transatlantic
Service” The paper says what it said last week, again. (It also works in the
promise that the Constellations will be joined by Tudor IIs early in the New
Year.)
“No Room at the
Inn” The Government is BUNGLING airport building.
The Dutch have
bought some Fireflies.
The Firefly. Everything folds. |
Maurice A. Smith,
“Atlantic Journey: Impressions of a Constellation Proving Flight: To New York
with BOAC” It’s been several pages since the paper pointed out that BOAC now
flies Constellations from London Airport to La Guardia, so it is time to say it
again some more again more. It turns out that it still can take a long time if
the wind is against you, and be quite quick if it is with you. Weather
cancellations are annoying, and so are airports and passports. The supercharger
had to be disconnected on Saturday night on CAB orders, and it was very
annoying that it took a full two-and-a-half hours from arrival at Victoria
Terminal to takeoff at 10:00PM due to an unwarranted delay examining passports
and such.
Two-and-a-half hours. Unbelievable!
Takeoff, with its loud noise and dimming lights, was disconcerting,
and Commander Smith really does not like the Constellation’s cabin lighting.
Gander airport was memorable for the “blinding whiteness” of the new bread, and
New York for the 65-minute wait for harried immigration officials, during which
orange juice was served.
White bread's social signification has changed. |
“Viking Visits
the Norse” A Vickers Viking was shown around Norway. Now that’s a plane with
room for loot and captives!
Here and There
SBAC is going to
have a show! The first Vickers Vikings in Argentina consist of a “Vickers
Vanguard!”
No, not this Vanguard. |
Lt. Colonel C. A. Hart, for the Directorate of Military Survey, gave
a talk to the Royal Society’s Scientific Conference at Oxford, where he
explained that they used radar to survey the Far East because they hadn’t
bothered to do it before the war because it was all just Wog-Land. Sir
Frederick Handley Page has appealed for an endowment to provide for a
headquarters of the institute of Transport in London. So far, £40,000 of the
needed £100,000 has been pledged. Sir Ben Lockspeiser is pictured, showing off
an Athodyd proposal.
“Transonic
Research: Details of the Vickers Rocket-Propelled Model for Investigating Sonic
Speed Flight” Based on a 0.3 scale version of the Miles M.52,
Miles M.52 with Power Jets W.2/700 |
the Vickers rocket
is a light steel cylindrical shell with nose and tail cones, a wooden wing,
tailplane and fins. It is 11.83ft long, 19” diameter, 8.1ft span. It is a
hydrazine-water/hydrogen-peroxide rocket, like the Me163, and will be launched
from a specially modified Mosquito, and is expected to reach Mach 1.3 before
the fuel is exhausted. A six-channel telemetering transmitter allows the flight
to be monitored from the ground. Future models of the 18 proposed will have
swept-back wings, butterfly wings, swept-back tailplanes, etc.
“Notes from
Farnborough: Further Observations on Developments Shown at RAE” The press was
shown the Hawker Fury I, with Napier VII, which the paper is sure is faster
than the American “special” Thunderbolt claimed to have exceeded 500mph in
level flight. The Martin Baker F18/39 was also shown, and the Bristol Brigand,
as well as fourteen assorted models of various planes. The Supermarine
Spiteful XIV seems to be a bit of a disappointment, and various annular intakes
for jet engines were shown.
Short Sturgeon |
In shorter news,
Frederick Koolhoven has died, and the first Bristol Wayfarer dispatched to South
America had to be ditched after going off course due to a radio compass error and
spending 15 ½ hours in the air. It sounds as though the crew is fine, however.
N. D. Ryder, “Handling
Air Cargoes: Saving Time on the Ground is the Basic Requirement: Some of the
Problems Involved: Special Equipment” Like forklifts and trucks! At least it
beats having to beg an article from B. J. Hurren. And it is interesting to hear
just how difficult cargo handing is on some planes. The DC-3’s high door
necessitates scissor-lift platforms for loading, and a chute for unloading. The
DC-6 and Constellation both have under-passenger cabin cargo holds with head
room of 36”, and cargo is dragged in and out by loading crews on their hands
and knees! A modification, involving monorals running the length of the
compartments, with special containers, has recently been implemented by the
airlines for both aircraft. This is why level fuselages, front-loading doors, etc.,
are so attractive on the Fairchild Packet, Miles Aerovan and Bristol Freighter.
Civil Aviation
BOAC’s New York
Terminal at La Guardia is almost complete, while construction continues at
Idlewild. De Havilland Doves and Short Sandringhams have been delivered. Aer Lingus has taken over Eire-England
routes. The Government is still BUNGLING charter airlines. Parliament has swung
into some vigorous talking about talking about civil aviation with its latest Civil
Aviation Debate. The Anglo-Italian agreement, cabotage, and Irish routes came under
discussion.
“Approach by
Ground Control: The G.C. A. System Described: ‘Search’ and ‘Precision’
Indicators: Talking the Pilot Down” The same subject, again. Although there’s a
nice picture of the GCA ground crew’s van, which has lots of shiny instruments
that are paying us a dividend! Actually, the whole arrangement serves as a
vindication for Uncle George, with its radio beacons and radars and radios. Who
would have though in 1939 that all of these gadgets were necessary for just nipping
over to New York?
Very shiny dieselpunk. |
Correspondence
P. J. Croft is
upset that runway controllers have to be over 25, as he is 23 ½. Various people
think that Training Command’s complaints about not being included in the
Victory Fly-past are sour grapes. E. G. Smart thinks that the Government has
been BUNGLING Heathrow and airliners for a very long time.
The Economist, 13 July 1946
Leaders
“The Eastern
Question at Paris” Last week, it was the western question! This week we are
–giving a history lesson, in the style of Flight.
Apparently, Russians have differed from the English, the French, and
presumably the Icelanders and the Portuguese and the Moroccans about the great
questions of the east, such as who cares about Serbia, and why is Bulgaria
named after a fat person, and is it possible to talk about the Turkish straits
without someone saying something off-coloour. Hopefully, all of this will be settled in
Paris this summer. (And by “hopefully,” the paper means, “It really didn’t have
anything to talk about, so here is what my encyclopedia says happened in
1878.”)
See all the bits Russia has annexed? You could be next! From Fortune, which is why it is in colour. |
“The Climate of Work” The first in a several
part study of industrial relations. It concludes that there is a bad climate in
the British factory, which is really everyone’s fault, but mostly labour’s. If
only British workers were hard workers like Americans, or could be shot for not
fulfilling their quotas, as in Russia. The paper calls
for vast and cloudy, unspecified administrative and management changes.
“Palestine
Dilemma” It turns out that there are no easy answers on whether there should be
a Jewish state, an Arab state, or both, or neither in Palestine. Also,
Americans are quite obnoxious about it. So while there is no solution obvious
for Jews, Arabs and Americans, it might seem that there is one for the English, getting out. But the English cannot leave until everyone is satisfied.
“Outlook for the
Colonies” Speaking of places the English cannot possibly leave until everything
is perfect. . . At least we can all agree that the problems are the low
productivity of the native and the difficulties of their incomprehensible local
politics.
Notes of the Week
“Germany is Under
Discussion” When the foreign ministers meet to discuss whether we are to have
WWIII or not, they will also talk about talking about Germany. Molotov does say
that the Ruhr cannot be detached from Germany, so at least there is progress of
a kind, since the French will never be able to get the Ruhr free state through,
now.
“Vetoes and
Procedures” The United Nations is to talk about talking about talking about
itself. Although it is agreed that Russia vetoes too much.
“Pressure of
Business” Parliament is meeting very frequently to get all the Government’s
bills through.
“Negotiations
with Egypt” The next stage of negotiations coincide with British withdrawals,
which the paper hopes that the Egyptians will take as shows of goodwill, rather
than weakness. When the Egyptian position is that the British should get out,
and the british position is that we should get out a little, but not too much.
. .
“Potsdam and Austria”
Something about German property in Austria being subject to Russian reparations
demands.
“China Waits”
Unrra won’t distribute relief supplies in China on account of corruption, and Washington
is withholding the export credit until the civil war is sorted out.
“Indonesian
Deadlock” Philippine independence has inspired Indonesian envy. Soekarno is
rising at the expense of Sjrahir, as have Tan Malakki and Soebardjo. The
Indonesian press is talking about “purges” of the “radicals” of both the left
and pro-Dutch right.
“Conservative
Policy” The Conservatives had their annual party meeting and had some talks
from Anthony Eden. The paper thinks that the Tories are BUNGLING being in
opposition.
“The Cost of
Living Index” The way that the cost of living is calculated in Britain is not
very good, statistically speaking, but replacing it with a more accurate index
would show that the cost of living is up 40—50% rather than 30%, and since the
cost of living is attached to many wage settlements, would lead to rising
wages, and the end of the world.
“Milk Lessons
from America” Milk is good for children and the most important product of English
agriculture. The paper notes that American east-coast dairy farms are much more
productive than English. This goes to show that the English dairy industry has
to achieve full technical efficiency. (Mainly by using specially-bred milkers.)
“Rehabilitation
of Vagrants” During the war, vagrants all but disappeared. Now they are back,
albeit in small numbers –this might be related to full employment he paper
supposes. This has inspired new work on rehabilitating vagrants. The paper
supposes that there is need for “sterner measures” against the “hard core of
intractables,” and that they would probably appreciate some good old fashioned neglect more than all the
attention from Good Samaritans.
The Mexican
elections will change nothing, Belgium has no government again, and the
Government is BUNGLING the rehabilitation of played-out mines.
American Survey
“The End of Price
Control” The day before
H.R. 6020, the bill to extend the powers of the OPA, was to be voted on in the
House, Chester Bowles resigned in protest at the “booby trap amendment”
introduced by Senators Taft and Wherry, and Representative Crawford (R.,
Michigan), in line with the interests of the National Association of
Manufacturers. This led the President to veto it, and the last minute emergency
extension is only for two weeks, so the lapse of the OPA’s power at the end of
the month will probably lead to the end of price controls by the end of the
month.
It is supposed
that strikes will be kept at bay if wages keep pace with the cost of living, so
that this particular drag on the economy (apparently greatly overestimated,
anyway, when the total hours worked are counted up, and the high profile
strikes ignored) could be held in check by price controls. It is also feared,
or suggested that the “pent up demand” is far less than is sometimes supposed,
as 60% of all liquid assets are held by the top 30% of income earners, who have
everything they could ever possibly want, and so will just hold onto the money,
anyway, so that only between $5 and 6.7 billion of $81—107 billion of private
savings might be in play.
Meanwhile, production
is coming along. Cars are still well short of the 405,000 monthly of 1941, but
vacuum cleaners, washing machines, gas ranges, water heaters and automobile
tyres are all coming along. Freight car loadings have reached 85% of the March
1945 peak, when war production was going full blast. I guess the
conclusion is that inflation may not be that great, as the NAM is saying.
This montage is supposed to show how General Tires |
American Notes
“Stassen or
Bricker?” Neither! Stassen has won in Minnesota, as he had to do. The paper
thinks that Bricker is a cinch to win the nomination –except that Taft is
making a name for himself. He is as conservative as Bricker, more conversant
with national affairs, and is a solid opponent of the President. The
paper also likes Vandenberg –my eyes are rolling.
“The Labour Vote”
The Republicans are sure that the President has lost the labour vote, and that
the midterms will see a heavy swing to the GOP. The paper is not so sure that
Labour is willing to vote against its own interest.
“Output and
Controls” Bill, veto, interim powers, resistance to interim powers in the
Senate. Interim powers maybe maybe not, check in week next. And after that forever.
“The Loan in the
House” It will be another week of waiting.
“Budget Curbs in
Congress” The new budget proposal has been discovered to contain a rider,
introduced by the Dixie Democrats, requiring the President to approve any
increase in the national debt, with the concurrence of both houses of Congress.
Critics say that this will put a heavy burden on the Administration in ordinary
times, and be a disaster during national emergencies. The Dixie Democrats just
say that debt is bad.
For the fourth
consecutive year, the Department of Agriculture is aiming for a wheat crop
above 1000 million bushels, with acreage set at 71,700,000. This is above the
optimum level for soil conservation, but has been set with an eye to export
requirements.
The World Overseas
“Greek
Reconstruction Problems” Greek agriculture is primitive, but the crops are
expected to be good. The rest of its economy is industrial, and very small, and
practically prostrate, because Greeks are excitable, and because of
transportation difficulties.
When the Germans invaded in 1940, the Greeks had to immobilise one of their two national railways to have enough line to withdraw their rollling stock ahead of the German advance. This isn't a picture from that era, unfortunately. It is from this very nice Pinterest account, though. |
“The Fourth
Estate” French trade unions are too powerful.
The Business World
“London’s
Transport Problems” Is that it needs to raise fares, and probably can’t raise
them enough to recover its tender financial position, caused by the war.
“Natural v.
Synthetic Rubber” Before the war, the paper says, natural rubber was “our” most
profitable export. The world’s total production capacity seems to be about 4.5
to 4.8 million tons, including the American, Russian and European synthetic
industries. Three-fifths to two-thirds of natural rubber production is by
native shareholders, which makes the calculation of the cost of rubber production a bit nonsensical. Most of it will be
marked down as “nil,” even though there may well be “several hundred thousand
tons of native rubber at 1d/lb delivered at Singapore.” Rehabilitation costs
for estates have yet to be estimated, and wages for workers will have to go up,
with the result that natural rubber will probably run around 8-9 cents US/lb at
American ports. The cost of synthetic rubber being 14—20 cents/lb, the main
hope of the synthetic industry is that the Americans will subsidise it for
strategic reasons.
Business Notes
“The Tap Closes”
The “operation” to reduce the interest the Government pays on the national debt
by issuing new debt at lower interest rates is over.
Canada has
revalued its dollar at parity with the American. Britain, with considerable
Canadian dollar credit, will not be affected. The Coal Nationalisation Bill has
passed, with various amendments, some of which Mr. Shinwell resisted, and
others which the paper supported, so it is feeling very full of itself, for a
change. Britain’s overseas deficit is shrinking, Mr. Dalton says. Britain’s
coal reserves have been estimated again. There is enough for at least a hundred
years, but good seams keep being exhausted, and the price will continue to
rise.
“Shipbuilding
Costs” Costs continue to rise, even as the yards work to capacity. There are
now 1.665 million tons of shipping under construction in English yards, while
2.735 million tons lie in the yards waiting for reconversion. Meanwhile, the
labour force has fallen from 272,300 to 227,000, mainly as a result of women
leaving, but not entirely, and the yards are having increased difficulties finding
apprentices for the skilled trades. The price for a notional 7,500 ton ship has
risen from £24 to 26 8s over the last six months, and by 97% since 1939. This
falls far short of the 360% increase from June 1914 to June 1919, but we have
also not see the price crash that followed then, and hopefully won’t. Still, it
is worth remembering that in 1920, just before all the cancellations, a labour
force of 330,000 was working on 3.709 million tons of new construction plus
reconversion. That is, about 11 tons per worker, compared with 7 tons today.
While this is because the industry contracted too much in the 1930s to
accommodate this production, nevertheless it is also because the English worker
is soft, disobedient, truculent, lazy and probably smells bad.
Still a lot more productive than American shipyard workers, Geoff. |
“Anglo-Russian
Trade” The paper hopes there will be some, and especially that the English can
get their hands on some Russian non-ferrous metals. You will no doubt be hoping
that their plywood and pulp is held back a little longer.
“Black Lists to
Go” The Black Lists of the economic warfare days are going. English
manufacturers will finally be able to meet all those Portuguese buds for
advanced radar sets, aeroengines, high explosives, etc.
“Uncontrolled
Bullion Prices” Something about the expiry of the OPA making it possible for
Mexico to sell gold at $41/oz. It is being bought by the Middle East with US
dollars, much to the satisfaction of Mexicans and Middle Easterners and to the
chagrin of the paper, which points out how irresponsible the Mexicans are
being, and how there will be a reckoning once they're brought firmly into the World Bank.
Aviation, July 1946
Down the Years in AVIATION’s Log
Twenty five years
ago, The Aeronautical Journal advocated
large bombers with no external wing bracing. The Navy’s bombing tests on
obsolete battleships continued.
Airliner Engineering Corporation built an airliner weighing 8600lbs, seating 30 passengers. Packard built a V-12 capable of delivering full power at 6000ft. Sadi Lecointe set a 220mph record with a Hispano-engined Nieuport, Lts. Macready and Langham one of 34,150ft with a Moss-supercharged engine. Fifteen years ago, a Packard Diesel-engined Bellanca, flown by W. Lees and F. A. Brossy, broke a “non-refuelling record” by flying 84hr 48 minutes,
while French Lts Paris and Gonard set the seaplane record at 36hrs, 48min, covering 3230 miles. Frank Hawks flies Paris-London-Berlin-Paris in 7hr 31min. C. W. A. Scott flies Australia-England in 20 days 3 hours, and the Dornier DoX flew across the Atlantic at 100mph, while the Air Corps made 35,000 flying hours without an accident, and NACA opened a new wind tunnel. Kellett, Pitcairn and Buhl all produced autogiros. Ten years ago, North American’s Pacific Coast factory started producing, UAL passed the 100 million miles flown mark, the Navy order 191 new planes and the Army 77.
Airliner Engineering Corporation built an airliner weighing 8600lbs, seating 30 passengers. Packard built a V-12 capable of delivering full power at 6000ft. Sadi Lecointe set a 220mph record with a Hispano-engined Nieuport, Lts. Macready and Langham one of 34,150ft with a Moss-supercharged engine. Fifteen years ago, a Packard Diesel-engined Bellanca, flown by W. Lees and F. A. Brossy, broke a “non-refuelling record” by flying 84hr 48 minutes,
while French Lts Paris and Gonard set the seaplane record at 36hrs, 48min, covering 3230 miles. Frank Hawks flies Paris-London-Berlin-Paris in 7hr 31min. C. W. A. Scott flies Australia-England in 20 days 3 hours, and the Dornier DoX flew across the Atlantic at 100mph, while the Air Corps made 35,000 flying hours without an accident, and NACA opened a new wind tunnel. Kellett, Pitcairn and Buhl all produced autogiros. Ten years ago, North American’s Pacific Coast factory started producing, UAL passed the 100 million miles flown mark, the Navy order 191 new planes and the Army 77.
The Dornier Do X. |
The Line Editorial is missing this month,
but Leslie Neville’s editorial for the paper is “So . . . Don’t Write Off
Piston Engine Development.” “It is still too early to think of discarding reciprocating
engine development, which must continue side-by-side with the work on gas
turbine design until the sphere of each type is more clearly defined, and every
possible combination is considered and tried in specific airplane designs.”
You guys take all the time you need. No hurry. If you're lucky, the De Havilland Comet will start falling out of the sky before it takes all your sales. |
Kenneth R.
MacDonald, Manger, Aviation department, San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, “Soldier
Beware” Veterans returning to peacetime life and looking for work in aviation
should realise that there are far more ex-airmen than aviation jobs. Also, it
is likely to be more boring and businesslike than you expect. Also, if you
worked with fabric and wood as a rigger, your skills are not likely to be
applicable.
Illustrated: boring people with boring jobs at an airport. Not a stock photo. I swear! |
George M.
Galster, Latin American Analyst, “Will Gliders Close South America’s Transport
Gap?” No. Of course not. I hope this isn’t the standard of Latin America
analyzing in the Latin America analysis business!
A bit racist? A bit racist.
Willis L. Nye,
“Why Not Check Lists for Private Pilots?” If we could only get private pilots
to do checklists before flight, they might find and replace that faulty bit
before it is too late, and then the industry will make more sales!
“War Baby Flight
School Becomes Focal Servicing Base” The AAF built a training base, Hawthorne
Field, at Orangeburg, N.C. After the war, it didn’t need it, and operator Beverly Howard took it over for Hawthorne Airmotive, and he is sure to be rich
and famous soon.
In case you're wondering what they do at an "operating base." |
Paul H. Stanley,
Chief Engineer, Autogiro Company of America, “Practical Engineering of Rotary
Wing Aircraft” Stanley spends three pages explaining how autogiros work, before
reaching helicopters, where he discusses Focke and Weir developments, before
moving on to the exciting future of the gyrodyne, with the actual Sikorsky and
Bell helicopters briefly mentioned in passing along the way. Boring! He then
throws in the mathematics of stressing “hub-driven rotors” at great length.
Making rotors capable of lifting heavy, fast helicopters will be hard!
V. S. Kupelian,
Project Engineer, Goodyear Aircraft Corp, “Positive Action Lube System for
Goodyear F2G” Goodyear built a version of the Corsair. It had positive
lubrication.
“Supersonic Plane
and Jet Bombers Revealed by Army” The Northrop XP-79 exists more. The Bell XS-1
is the American Army’s entry into the supersonic test plane race.
Jet bombers under development include the North American XB-45, Consolidated Vultee XB-46, Boeing XB-47, Martin XB-48, Northrop XB-49. Other jet fighters under development are the North American XP-86 and Curtiss-Wright XP-87. General Curtis Lemay also revealed an appropriation request for a six-hundred-million-dollar Air Force Research Centre to take over some of NACA’s work, and for rocket and jet aircraft proving fields. Vannevar Bush thinks that the money should be spent on more scientists than Air Force things, but that the money should be spent, regardless.
Apparently we're steering straight for controversy here. |
Jet bombers under development include the North American XB-45, Consolidated Vultee XB-46, Boeing XB-47, Martin XB-48, Northrop XB-49. Other jet fighters under development are the North American XP-86 and Curtiss-Wright XP-87. General Curtis Lemay also revealed an appropriation request for a six-hundred-million-dollar Air Force Research Centre to take over some of NACA’s work, and for rocket and jet aircraft proving fields. Vannevar Bush thinks that the money should be spent on more scientists than Air Force things, but that the money should be spent, regardless.
“British Airliner
Pressurisation Inaugurated on Tudor I” The paper reads Flight.
R. E. Maier,
Plastics Division, Chemical Department, E. I. du Pont de Nemours Corp, “See
promise in Low-Density Core for Aircraft Laminate Components” Aircraft should
use more plastics. Plastics are light, and reasonably strong, and available in
extruded shapes to any dimensions required. They can be laminated to form
stronger pieces, and machined with simple woodworking tools.
“Roller Mounted
Maps Expedite Position Finding” The American version is a “simplified chart
holder,” while the British version is a map on a roller, a “self-contained
unit” for assisting passengers in following the aircraft’s flight. I am pretty
sure we’ve heard of both before.
K. R. Jackman,
Chief Test Engineer, Consolidated Vultee Aircraft Corp, San Diego, “Aircraft
Acoustical Problems and possible Solutions, Part 1” Now that the war is over,
we can notice that aircraft are extremely loud, and that people who live near
airports are upset about it, while passengers are discouraged. A 2200hp engine
in each wing is equivalent to flying between two locomotives! “Few of us would
expect to read a magazine comfortably and in extreme quiet in a room adjacent
to a railroad track and separated from it by a wall composed of 0.030 inch
aluminum sheeting and some fluff on rather flimsy uprights.” Jackman provides a
discussion of sound abatement, and more importantly for the moment, also of
frequencies of particular concern, since initial abatement measures should
focus on the most obnoxious parts of the total sound spectrum.
Charles A.
Parker, “Keep That Overhead Under Your Thumb, Part VI of a Series,” Charlie
Parker, of Robinson Aviation, continues to explain how to run a business, but
with planes involved.
“Tagging the
Bases: Emphasis on Service Pays Off, Rounding /reports Show”
Raymond L. Hoadley,
“Profits Balanced by Reconversion Costs, Part 1” Reconversion and reseach and
development are draining the coffers of Fairchild, Beech, Glenn L. Martin and
Curtiss-Wright, and some of these firms may not stay in the civilian market.
“New Accuracies
Attained with Radio Altimeters” Radio altimeters are those simple radars that
just ping off the ground and give an altitude reading. Bell Telephone has two
new, FM models out, and each one is better than the other.
“Doman-FrazierReveals New ‘Copter Projects” Doman-Frazier, now currently not making one
helicopter, will in the future not make two more helicopters. Unless people
give it money, in which case it will make all three, and they will be the best
helicopters ever.
“Improved Funk
Two-Placer Goes into Production” Funk Aircraft, of Coffeyville, Kansas, will
soon have an even better plane out than the one it has now.
“Speedy C.A. 15
Fighter Built in Australia” The CA-15 Boomerang exists more. This is such old
news that I can’t even bring myself to make fun of the name anymore!
“Percival
Three-Seater is New RAF Trainer” Speaking of old news. . .
Sideslips
“Sideslips” tells
illustrative, if not hilarious, stories about the pilot who had to fly on
instruments for four hours on a clear day because “he lost the railroad 300
miles back,” the pilot who flew home to his newlywed through no-visibility
conditions, the B-29 crew which lost an engine, which then came back on,
throwing its airscrew, which then smashed the next screw in, which threw
fragments that gashed the fuselage, at the same time that the plane lost right
rudder control. Also, it makes fun of a ”slick” that describes the P-38 as
having “twin tail, twin engines, twin fuselages,” and advertising copy that
describes a “rocket jet powered vacuum cleaner.”
Aviation News
The Veterans
Administration is setting a ceiling of $20/hour for instrument training in
GI-Bill funded schools. The Air Force is talking about talking about its
governance. The Navy is working on high speed ramjets. Experiments on
swivel-wheel landing gears continue. Now that the AAF has tested a V-2, it is
time for the Army, AAF and Navy to argue over who gets what rocket-related
blowing-people-up business. Liquid-fueled rockets might have a future as
aircraft weapons. The first radar-equipped civilian air traffic control tower
has been unveiled by CAB in Indianapolis. The new AAF budget is down a lot year
over year, but R&D spending is maintained at the same level. Allison is now
taking the lead in aero-engine manufacture, and wartime production efficiencies
are vanishing with postwar contracts. 1682 aircraft were manufacture in April,
148 were “military ships.” Caltech is testing airfoils with rockets, and the
Department of Commerce has issued a report on turbine alloys. The Vought XF5U-1
“Skimmer” has a top speed of 425mph and a low speed of 40, finally beating the
“speed range bogie,” thanks to its unconventional, buried-engine design. IATA
has determined that North Atlantic fare cuts are needed. Airline and manufacturing losses continue to mount.
The aerodynamics of this unlikely claim are discussed at Wikipedia. |
The Washington Windsock
A Supreme Court
decision awarding damages to a farmer who lost chickens due to noise of a
low-flying aircraft doesn’t change the law that the Feds are in charge up
there, and you can’t have an injunction against low-flying, although you can be
awarded damages. “The British claim their Rolls-Royce Nene is the world’s most
powerful . . . American engineers fear English will arrive here one day with first
jet or turbine transport aircraft.” Talking about talking about Railseaair
continues. It might be ten to fifteen years before the Russians give up on this
whole “national sovereignty” thing and just allow American airlines to fly into
their airports willy-nilly.
Not to worry. If they go in for their De Havilland materials science tricks, they might end up making such a hash of it that the industry doesn't come back to composites until the 787. |
Worlddata by Vista
It is reported
that the British are shifting to all jet power plants, with new engines for the
Brabazon and Saunders-Roe giant liners, the Hermes, Tudor II, and new Miles
transport. The RAF is working on the DH Swallow, the Ghost now hits 5000lb
thrust, and the Nene will soon attack the world speed record of 606mph. France
is also “sparing no efforts to regain her former position in world aviation.”
Mostly with American planes, but French ones are coming on. The Miles M.63B jet
mailplane exists more.
Fortune, July 1946
Leaders
“For a Free Democratic Russia” Russia
is communist, and that’s bad, Americans agree in the latest "Fortune Survey."
“Mr. Wyatt Builds
His Castle” Mr. Blanding’s Dream Home turns into a bit of a nightmare, what
with all the complications and his own confusion. The same is true of the Wyatt
Plan! Linoleum is short due to lack of Argentinian linseed oil, two key gypsum
plants remain shut because the Government won’t release their ore boats, a
builder in Brooklyn is building only 400 units instead of a 1000 due to
shortage of prefabricated houses, and many of the ones he does build are
completing without radiators and pipes. Other contractors are going short on
electrical supplies, cinder blocks and hardwood for flooring.
“Good
Trade-Unionism” Trade unions used to be good, you know, back in the old days.
Nowadays they’ve gone too far, and all those strikes are counterproductive.
Because who needs skilled tradespeople, right? These things probably grow on a tree somewhere. |
“Back to What
Convention” The paper notices that while Uncle Henry used to promise that the
Kaiser-Frazier cars would embody all sorts of new technology, such as
front-wheel drive, they will now be “conventional” cars. The paper objects.
What kind of “convention” are we talking about? Too many fenders, grills,
“bulbous bows, overhanging sterns”? Will they be terrible cars? The paper says
that the automobile makers should work harder on achieving a true and simple
style.
The Fortune Survey
The paper asks:
WWIII, or not? The answer is, WWIII. Interestingly, the better-educated the
respondents, the more likely they are to think that the Russians are spreading
world communism, that it is bad news, and that they have fellow travellers in
America in radio, Government, education, and that America should broadcast
radio programmes to Russia to counter Communist propaganda, so that America and
Russia can be friends again. After WWIII.
“The U.S. Foreign
Service” If we are to avoid WWIII (or win it?) we will need a much more
“potent” foreign service. The paper’s foreign correspondents supply many, many
stories about how it is not “potent” right now. And a joke about the
foreign-service office who was recalled to Washington for a special tour "drafting replies to the telegraphs I’ve been sending for the last three
months.” Also, some of our political ambassadors are not very good.
“Morris Motors
Ltd,” Protected by protection, Morris is humming along, but protection has led
to the English mostly making small cars, which is bad, because small is bad. Or
is it that bad is small?
Also, Lord Nuffield is the “Henry Ford of Britain.” But his workers can’t afford cars, so he’s not, really.
Maybe they use short models for these ads? |
Also, Lord Nuffield is the “Henry Ford of Britain.” But his workers can’t afford cars, so he’s not, really.
"Meanwhile, in the Third World," etc. |
“U.S. Debt, 1946”
The US debt reached the “fantastic level of $279 billion this February.” New
Deal deficits, usually on the order of $3 billion or so, gradually raised the
national debt to $45 billion, WWII added $203 billion. It has now stopped
growing, and actually shrunk by $10 billion since February. While further
reductions in the next fiscal year are likely, there is no realistic prospect
of the debt falling below $200 billion in the next generation. Fortunately,
national debt does not have to be paid off; America has been in debt since
1837, Britain since the Napoleonic Wars, but with interest payments of $5
billion, or 3.3% of national income, and this is a lot. It is not a “net loss”
to the economy, since the payments come back as taxes and spending, but it
might feed inflation. The 30 to 40% increase in the cost of living is due in no
small part to the increase in the money supply, and the national debt is the
main source of all this money sloshing about. The paper explains how this
happens, mainly through the creation of new bank deposits, against which the
banks can lend money –the main way in which this newly created money reaches
the economy and stimulates inflation.
What to do? The
paper urges the running of a Federal surplus, which will be used to buy back
bank-held debt, and shrink their deposits, reducing the money supply.
“Government economists who are the first to cry for public deficits in time of depression should be the first to advocate surpluses in time of boom.” This will not solve the potential inflationary effects of the Victory and other savings bonds issued during the war, but Professor Henry Simons of the University of Chicago proposes replacing them with consoles, and eliminating government bonds for the public entirely. His scheme would allow the Government to control the money supply by buying consoles at a premium in a Depression, and selling them during a boom.
"With any luck, we'll be back to secular stagnation by 1950!" |
“Government economists who are the first to cry for public deficits in time of depression should be the first to advocate surpluses in time of boom.” This will not solve the potential inflationary effects of the Victory and other savings bonds issued during the war, but Professor Henry Simons of the University of Chicago proposes replacing them with consoles, and eliminating government bonds for the public entirely. His scheme would allow the Government to control the money supply by buying consoles at a premium in a Depression, and selling them during a boom.
“Medicine from
the Earth” Penicillin, streptomycin, and the other antibiotics now in
development were discovered in the dirt. (Well, where is there more bacteria
than in the dirt?) It has been noted that where heavy doses of penicillin are
prescribed, penicillin-resistant staphylococcal bacteria soon emerge. “Staph”
infections can be quite serious, so to fight this rise in penicillin-resistant
bacteria, medical science is looking for new antibiotics, and they are looking
at the dirt. The paper points out that bacteriologists have been looking for
“antibiotics” in the soil for a century now, and Pasteur thought he had one,
pyocyanase, but it was not until Fleming’s discovery of penicillin that the
long-theorised “anti-biotics” that have maintained the balance of life in the
soil since the Archaeozoic times 3 billion years ago were found in a form that
could be turned into medicine. It was the Oxford Group, working with Fleming’s
decade-old discovery, which finally cracked the problem of extracting
penicillin from its culture medium in 1940—1 so that they could test it in
humans. Realising that large-scale production of penicillin in war-torn Britain
would be impossible, they included it in the 1941 release of British
scientifici secrets to the United States, where it was soon put into mass
production. 21 billion Oxford units were produced in 1943, 1633 billion units
in 1944, and, in 1945, thanks to the discovery of a new strain of
penicillin-producing bacteria, 7,000 billion units in 1945. Yet even that was
not enough, especially after the discover of the oral form, which takes five
times as much penicillin as the injected form to reach the bloodstream in
adequate amounts. Last January, the CAB had to put penicillin back on the
restricted list, and it is only this summer that it has come off, allowing for exports.
Mass producing penicillin circa 1946. |
Yet there
remained many “Gram-negative bacteria,” including tuberculosis, tularemia and
meningitis and the late 1943 discovery of Streptomycin
by Selman Waksman, of the New Jersey Agricultural Experimental Station at
Rutgers, offered hope against these ancient scourges. Public demand for a cure
for tuberculosis soon reached a “hysterical” pitch, and, last month, the CAB
put streptomycin on allocation. Unfortunately, treating even 300 tuberculosis
patients with the massive amount of streptomycin needed would exhaust the
nation’s supply of only 30,000 grams a month. Merck, which will have $3,500,000
plants operational in Rahway, New Jersey and Elkton, Virginia by the end of the
year, will triple production, by which time we may even know if streptomycin
actually is a cure for tuberculosis, since the long-term dosages require build
up bacterial resistance.
Now we have news
of Bacitracin, which may be even more effective than penicillin. However, there
is also ominous news, and the “tide may have turned.” Besides bacterial
resistance, new analysis shows that penicillin is not a single, homogenous
chemical, but rather contains several variant forms, of which one, at least, Penicillin
K,. seems largely ineffective –and it is “K” which is produced in larger quantities
with the new mass production methods. This means that mass-produced penicillin
may be less effective than doctors realise, and that may patients may not be
getting large enough doses. Government wartime security regulations, which prevented
the research from reaching doctors, may be to blame.
So the end of the
penicillin era may be in sight, streptomycin may never fulfill its promise, and
we should go on studying dirt for new forms of antibiotics, and re-evaluating
the old sulfa drugs.
“Red Star Rising”
Russia is a very large country which is always getting bigger, because it is
annexing its neighbours. It is communist, made peace with the Nazis once, and
is interested in promoting world revolution, which is bad for non-communist countries.
“General Tire on
the Loose: Lusty Bill O’Neill Has Plumped His Conservative Company Into a
Hubbub of Growth and Diversification” It makes tires, hospital beds, blimps,
Jato units, rockets, and, of course, tires.
“Charles Luckman:
At 37, A Self-Trained Soap Salesman Assumes the Presidency of British-Owned
Lux, Rinso, Lifebuoy and Pepsodent” That is, of Lever Brothers’ American
brands, which also include Lipton’s Tea and /Chicken Noodle Soup.
“Mass: Precision:
Symmetry: Striking Patterns Unconsciously Achieved in the Manufacture of Small
Objects: Captured in Seven Photographs by Ezra Stoller”
“Postscript: The
Aothecary’s Art” Apothecaries are old time medicine. The paper points its
finger and gently mocks.
“Adam Smith: The
Patron Saint of Freedom in Enterprise and Trade Has Been Badly Misinterpreted:
It is Time to Reconsider What He Really Said” Adam Smith was an old-time
Scottish economics writer. Surprisingly, he was actually a Professor of
philosophy at Edinburgh University, and had strong opinions about morality. His
doctrine of “laissez-faire” was actually a rebellion against the “mercantilism”
of his day, and perhaps the pendulum has swung too far, etc. For example, there
should be tariffs to protect strategic industries and against rich nations
which might otherwise be made too powerful in war.
Shorts and Faces
The paper is impressed
with Gimbel pens, but not to the extent of wanting to go to one of Mr. Gimbel’s
parties. Milton Reynolds is another matter entirely. By the way, everyone is
suing everybody over the ball-point pen patents. It is as though you can’t
trust a self-proclaimed inventor any more!
John S. Bugas is the new Vice-President in charge of industrial relations at Ford, and is a worthy sort, but not the go-to-his-party sort of worthy. Likewise, Jack Keeshin, of the interstate trucking company. The paper notices that this “pressurisation” stuff is a lot harder than it looks. It is also excited by the three-wheeled Motorette, launched by three young Curtiss-Wright men who might be party-worthy some day.
Henry Justi, of Philadelphia, makes false teeth, now using acrylic plastics, and is making money in his crusade against porcelain teeth. Unfortunately, he is 82 [92?], rather too old for parties.
This John Bugas seems to have been a fairly colourful figure. And if being a Ford crony isn't enough to earn you half of Wyoming, what is? |
The Farm Column
Ladd Haystead
notes that the number of farms with electricity have risen from 11% in 1935 to
50% today, which is solid progress. Unfortunately, pressure water systems lag
behind, at 37%,and so has sewage. Farmers are conservative, but there is some
sense that electricity is underselling its promise. Electrifying farm work only
goes so far, and the rest of demand comes from household consumption. Electric
motors are not very useful for field work, and tractors can be substituted. But
electricity can also supply pressure water, invaluable in dairy operations for
cleaning, and statistics show that the general assistance electricity supplies
frees farmers up to plant more crops and so make more money. Electric welders,
which seemed to promise convenient repairs, have been “knocking the
transformers off the poles.” On the other hand, the home freezer may take off,
and they would need that domestic electricity, promoting it to a much higher
priority.
Business Abroad
While the United
States is “driving through the automotive age,” Europe has reverted to the
bicycle era, and Russia hasn’t even reached it. The Five Year Plan visualises
the production f 1.8 million bicycles in 1950 for 202 million soviet Russian
citizens. That is why it is trains, foot and animal cart for Russians, still.
British credits to France are inadequate, but the most the British can afford
until the American loan comes through. The paper notices an odd business, the
75 big diesel trucks of the Netherlands-Czechoslovakia line, which belongs to
the Netherlands Railways, but operates in lieu of trains, which have still not
started running on this route. Switzerland is open to tourists, and hopes that
America will start granting passports again. Mrs. Shipley, of the State
Department, says no. No passports for tourists yet, because there is just not
the transport yet. Generals MacArthur and McNarney have become advocates for
Japanese and German exports, respectively, as the best cure for “disease and
unrest” in their fiefdoms.
…And no book
section means that I will make my lunch date, after all!
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