 |
| It was always colder when we were young. In 1947, Britons couldn't heat their homes from May to October. |
R_. C_.,
Oriental Club,
London,
England.
Dear Father:
Well, if you won't leave London, I am going to leave this bed, and that will be the last you hear of me for a few months, as I shall have a fourth on hand to go with the three I've already produced. (Really, what was I thinking? Oh! That your son is so handsome and funny. Never mind. . . It's a girl's weakness.) I am handing the letter over to Reggie, as the Navy is not keeping him that busy this summer. He will forward it to me from Hawaii, and I will act as final editor and perhaps comment on the particular delicates. (For example, it is not true that Fat Chow aimed for the eye. He used that compact parachutist's carbine we procured in '43, and the power of the rifle cartridge popped the man's eye out, he tells me. Although I suspect that he's not averse to it adding to its legend, and I am certainly not looking at monocles for the next time he drives me up to see the Engineer!
So there we have it, a long-delayed message about the dangers of crossing our family, but unfortunately muddled, as we can hardly stop Italian men of respect from taking credit for it.) And speaking of long-delayed family business, I suppose I should mention that the Engineer's bastard is now the president of his union. He may not be able to make money doing the job, but I have a feeling that he will find a way to make a career out of representing those who can.
"GRACE."
A reimagined Forties novelty song, in honour of this post's technological Next Big Thing --Silly Putty. I'm not sure I like the video. I'm working on the principle that I might as well give a living artist the exposure. If you want to hear something closer to the original "'m a lonely little petunia in an onion patch," go here.
Flight,
1 May 1947
Leaders
“Proving the Turbines” Americans are
terrible because they are always talking about their aircraft and power plants
before proving them. But the English are doing the same with turbines, which
may not be on commercial aircraft for several years yet. This may sound like
criticism, but it’s not, or it’s not criticism of unnamed people who exaggerate
unnamed things optimistically. Rather, it is the fact that there aren’t enough
testbed planes for the new Bristol Theseus, says someone at Bristol.
 |
| Flight really, really has gone crazy on the subject of flying boats. Note that this is a post-war phenomena, contrary to Correlli, etc. |
“Dollars and Sense” The English
government says that it is not buying any more American civil planes. BOAC is
disappointed. The paper points out that American planes cost dollars, and the
English havent’ enough dollars, so it is just good sense. The paper points out
that it is not impartial in the decision, but instead of going on to talk about
how it gets all its advertising from plane-makers, it is on about, what else?
flying boats.
“One More?” The paper thinks that
the Government is BUNGLING statistics. Unlike The Economist, it thinks that “the totalitarian bosses” are
collecting too many.
“High Performance Amphibian: TheSupermarine Seagull with Variable-incidence Wing: Griffon Engine and
Contra-rotating Airscrew” The Seagull hasn’t actually flown yet, so the fact
that it is off the secret list probably tells you how much the Admiralty
actually cares about it, but it is some very nice engineering, although this is
not described in any detail. (On top of the swinging, folding and flapping arrangements in the wing, it also has
retractile floats.)
“Rotor Testing: Spinning Tower at
Filton the Largest in the World” Filton has a brand-new, 50ft spinning tower
for testing airscrew blades (enough for rotors of up to 60ft diameter to be
tested without “ground cushion” effects.) It is a steel mast attached to a
spherical base by spring-loaded bolts, with six bracing guy ropes with
adjustable slack. This allows the rotors to not only be spun, but also given
lateral movements and resonances depending on how the bolts and ropes are
adjusted.
“Check List,” “Bonanza or Navion:
In-the-Air Characteristics of Two Leading American Aircraft” English
distributors let “Check List” fly both planes. He doesn’t have a
recommendation, but I think that he prefers the Navion. In shorter news, French
enthusiasts are organising a running of the Montana Cup.
Here
and There
A Meteor has flown
Brussels-Copenhagen at 1000km/h (average speed of 630mph, “assisted, of course,
by a stiff wind.”) Work continues on the Consolidated-Vultee XC-99, which will
have a gross weight of 265,000lbs and be able to carry 400 troops or 100,000lbs
cargo. The airline version will have a gross weight of 320,000lbs, require 6
5000hp engines and be designated the CV-37. Gloster test pilot, Lt. James Bridge, late of the FAA, has been killed test-flying a Meteor. The Institutions
of Mechanical and Automobile Engineers have amalgamated. United Whalers factory
ship Balaena is on its way home from
Capetown after a very successful trip in which its Walrus amphibians logged
many hours of flying [totally off topic, note tags]. This year’s Segrave Memorial Trophy went to Geoffrey de
Havilland. Lockheed believes that it has defeated the “choking” problem in wind
tunnels between Mach 0.9 and 1.2 1ith a well-positioned “hump.” A new company,
under the name “British Messier,” has been formed to deal with Societe Messier
products, with Bristol taking an
interest. Rolls Royce held its seventh annual ball this week.
“Vertigo,” “Stormy Weather: Are We
Overlooking that Vital Link Between the Dashboard and the Controls –The Pilot?”
I don’t want to be critical. This is a very nice piece of writing, and it is
very illuminating about the experiences of pilots flying in bad weather, but
it’s hard to find any concrete recommendations in it, apart from a suggestion
that cockpits could be better arranged.
“The Prevention of Fire in Aircraft:
A Comprehensive Analysis of Causes and Remedies: Precis of a Talk Given to the
Royal Aeronautical Society by W. G. Glendinning and J. W. Drinkwater” The
authors researched causes of fires onboard. Electrical fires, engine failiures,
coolant failures, overheating in problem points like fire traps were all
considered. Lacking anything more dramatic, most of the precis focusses on the
authors’ failure to definitively establish whether air-cooled engines actually
were more prone to fire, as some, it seems, claim. They did conclude that
direct fuel injection is an improvement over natural-draft, not least because
it allows the use of low-volatility safety fuels. They also recommend
methyl-bromide fire extinguishers.
In shorter news, the paper mentions
a civil version of the Vickers-Supermarine Sea-Otter, and an experimental,
Nene-powered de Havilland Vampire, which apparently didn’t work very well –says
the company, which predicts that a future Ghost-powered Vampire will be the
best thing ever. Speaking of de Havilland, new production Hornets and Sea
Hornets have been given an extended tail fin to improve directional swing; and
J. v. and J. E. G. Eurich have a new fractional horsepower electrical motor,
the “Electrotor,” “based on novel principles,” and manufactured by Revmotors,
Ltd., of Knowsdley House, Bolton.
 |
| Google turns up nothing more. They might have gone back to Germany? |
D. W. Weaver, “Congo-Bound: Story of
a 10,000-mile Flight in an Auster: Some Light on ‘Darkest Africa’” Flight
Lieutenant Weaver was hired to deliver a new Auster Autocrat (100hp Cirrus
Minor engine, 730lbs luggage with spare fuel and spare parts, hitch-hiker
included) to Leopoldville this winter. It was an adventure, and foreigners are
excitable. The Congo is less exotic than expected.
 |
| "Dash it all, Biggles!" |
“Airborne in the Theseus Lincoln:
Flight Impressions of Bristol Airscrew-Turbine: New Technical Facts” The
desperate, rear-guard action against “turboprop” continues. Flying on the
outboard Theseus engines only, the Lincoln was very quiet and comfortable due
to lack of vibrations. The Theseus-powered makes of the Handley-Page Hermes
will be wonderful, when they are available. The Theseus engines used on the
Lincoln did not have the heat-exchangers that have been such a prominent part
of the engine’s publicity, but heat-exchanger-equipped Theseus engines will
appear in due course. De Havilland has a new four-blade Hydromatic airscrew
specifically for turboprops. Stressmeters show “abnormally low” stresses in the
airscrew root, thanks to turboprops being so wonderful. Future turboprop
airscrews will have thinner roots, and be even lighter, with lower drag.
Civil
Aviation News
“Aircraft for British Airlines” The
parliamentary statement that no more American aircraft will be bought for
British airlines is expanded upon. The government does not intend to cancel the
Tudor I. “Jupiters” (re-named Ju-52s) will continue to fly on domestic routes
for the time being, because there has been a nice export order for the new
production de Havilland Doves.
 |
| By RuthAS - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11692542 |
In shorter news, the Ministry is
discussing “soft spots” in airfield perimeters, where emergency vehicles can
crash through to quickly reach accident sites outside the fences. Also, several
organisations have sprung up to provide centralised booking for charter
flights; the Air Registration Board has issued new requirements for de-icing
installations; the Colonial Civil Air Service conference was a valuable
opportunity to talk about talking about civil aviation; and the Lancashire
Aircraft Corporation has bought some freighter versions of the Halton for
charter. If you’re wondering, the “Halton” is a new name for the Halifax when
it is not dropping bombs, because why should the Sunderland have all the good
aliases? Various new services and increased service rates celebrate the coming
of summer. The Wolverhampton Flying Club has bought a Miles Messenger.
 |
| Another approach to adding enough fuselage to one of the big bombers to create a transport: Handley Page Halton. source: https://www.flying-tigers.co.uk/2016/handley-page-halifax-the-latest-hobbymaster-pre-order-models/ |
“Fairey Flying Club Opens: Low Rates
for Employees: Display of Service Aircraft” This isn’t quite a full page
article, because there is another long bit about Mr. J. M. Gwinn, Jr.,’s
“Simplifying Aircraft for the Private Owner.” After you’ve bought a private
plane is a great time to pick up the SAE’s new pamphlet on making flying
simpler!
Correspondence
“A Belgian Reader” thinks that an
easy way to make landings easier is to cover the entire runway with a good
radar-reflecting material. Or how about putting it on wheels, so it can move to
somewhere where the weather is good? That would work, too! Ned Dearborn,
President of the National Safety Council, writes to correct M. Blondin’s
comments about how the passenger-miles metric distorts aviation safety records.
Dennis Powell is upset that the Percival Merganser is being held up by
non-delivery of the latest D. H. Gipsy Queen engine, and says that English
technical inefficiency should be remedied by importing some American engines. The paper replies that it isn’t technical
efficiency so much as lack of labour and coal that is holding things up.
The
Economist, 3 May 1047
Leaders
“Mr. Marshall’s Round” The paper
liked Mr. Marshall’s radio address, thinks that Henry Wallace is terrible, and
has doubts about the “provocative and flamboyant” presentation of the Truman
Doctrine. It also thinks that the Russians have a point about Germany, and so
do the French; so “everything depends –at the next level on the more efficient
organisation of the fused British and American zones,” since if the Germans can
be got to working at full tilt, all the problems of Russia and eastern European
rehabilitation and French coal supplies can be addressed.
“A Statute of Liberty?” The
Government is BUNGLING not being totalitarian. Also, the Liberal Party (you may
have heard of them) is right about stuff.
“The Birth Rate” 241,421[?] births
were registered in the first quarter of 1947. This gives a birth rate of 22.8
per thousand, highest since the June quarter of 1921, and comparable to the
average of 16.1 per thousand for the March quarters 1941—45. This means that
the high birth rates of 1946 are continuing. The paper asks: Does this mean
anything? Is it a short-term check to a steady trend, or the beginning of a
change in the long-term trend? The paper points out that there was also a short
upward tick in 1919, “Merely compensation for the abnormally large fall during
the war,” and asks whether that is what is happening now.
I’ll break here and remind you that
James and I did a slide rule estimate of the number of children “lost” to
families like our tenants during the Great Depression, and what it might look
like if they “realised their gains” from wartime income windfalls, and
concluded that that pretty much explained the surging birth rate in America in
1944/45. We haven’t redone the numbers in two years, as who cares how many houses might sell when we're selling all the houses we can? Overall, the problem with any theory that says that the birth surge is because of the war has to deal with the fact that post-1945 does look different to post-1918. Is it because there were more "losses” in the Thirties to be made up? Our theory
does, however, fall under the “short term check to a steady trend” category. does the paper think we need to throw this category out? On with the article!
Looking to other data, the paper
sees changes in the marriage rate that suggest to it that “there is a real
decline in celibacy.” Now, that is
definitely not included in our slide rule estimate. We just didn't think of “Families that never were.” Any
families that were formed earlier because
of the war, however, are just borrowing children from the future –implying a
lower birth rate in the future than otherwise.
The paper goes on to add that we can calculate the
reproduction rate, by taking births, deaths and marriage rates into account.
This shows that births from 1933 were about 25% below a population-replacement
rate, while in 1946 they were 10% above. This is a laborious way of climbing
back to where we were at the start of the article –that if 1946 is typical of
the new trend, then there is no population problem—but that’s how the paper
likes to write its articles –climbing the same hill again and again, until we
finally get to the little valley at the end where it hides its unsupportable
(if probably correct) prediction: 1946 and 1947 are like 1920, and the
population problem will be back.
“1157 And All That” When Russia
conquered Poland and Germany in 1944/45, it solved the border problems by
shoving Poland west. All of White Russia now belongs to regular Russia
(confusing!) and Poland gets the chunk of what used to be Germany that lies
east of two rivers called the Oder and Neisse. That reminds the paper of
something awful that happened in 1157. No, it doesn’t. The Poles are awful, and
Germany needs the “food surplus” areas east of the rivers.
Notes
of the Week
“Dollars” It is now officially to be
expected that England will run out of dollars before the end of 1948, due to
inflation, deflation, reflation, self-flation and nonflation. (Actually, it is
mainly the rise in price of primary imports and lack of coal. I’m being
facetious because the paper pronounces a worldwide slump in commodity prices as
being England’s future salvation, when the country still has to sell its
exports. Has the paper’s title changed? Nope, still, The Economist, and not The
Not-Thinking-It-Throughist) The paper anticipates either mass unemployment
or mass starvation as a result, and is very concerned for the Government and
reminds it that it should publish an Official Plan to solve the crisis at the
earliest possible moment. Since, as the
Earl explains, the plan is that the Government will devalue the pound, and even
the paper must understand this, I think it is just being mischievous.
“The Transport Bill” The Government
is BUNGLING democracy by BUNGLING transportation by “ramming” the
nationalisation bill through the House of Commons. The paper hopes that the
Conservatives in the House of Lords will get democracy right by holding the
bill up.
 |
| Bad legislation is always being RAMMED through the legislature. |
“Reconstruction in Europe” The Economic
Commission for Europe is a good thing, and should talk about talking about
reconstruction. In related talking about talking about news, Geneva, tariffs.
“Industrial Delinquency” London
stevedores and lightermen have gone out on strike in support of Glasgow dockers, and it is terrible.
“The Domestic Fuel Scheme” The
summer fuel not-rationing rules are out. No space-heating with gas or
electricity from 5 May to the end of September. (“Cast ne’er a clout until May is oot,” James shouts.) Industrial and commercial premises can’t heat their
shops until Halloween. All domestic users are asked to restrict gas and
electricity use by 25%, voluntarily. Households with babies or invalids may get
an exemption from the heating restrictions with a doctor’s note. The paper
discerns various ways in which this has been BUNGLED.
“Fair Compensation for Land” The
1944 Planning Act has been somewhat de-BUNGLED.
“Report on Greece” Eleven very
important countries appointed very serious people to report on Greek frontier
incidents, but their report is taking longer than expected, as there is much to
talk about talking about, and communism is terrible, and the civil war in
Greece will probably go on as long as the one in Spain.
Palestinians of all religion, Jewish
terrorists, Uno delegates, New York Jews and English civil servants are
excitable. American citizens will
surely soon wake up to . . . uhm, let’s phrase this exactly, the paper thinks
to itself, because while Jews are obviously not “clubbable,” saying that provokes peculiar reactions
these days, what with Hitler and all, and so, uhm, something something –Wait, I
know, communism is terrible! Czechs are also excitable about communism being
terrible.
 |
| He's Jewish? I had no idea, and, of course, it's not important, anyway. What's important is that he's doomed us all. |
“The Bankside Station” The decision
to build a power station on the Thames bank at Southwark has been BUNGLED.
“War Damage to Defective Property”
There was a court case leading to a court order; there’s a commission, and an
appeal. Obviously, this is important, but it is also beyond boring, and the
paper is no help. A good rule of thumb: lead sentences should not begin “It had
been generally hoped that. . . “
“The Viceroy’s Perplexities”
Partition has been accepted as inevitable, and the Viceroy flew up to Peshawar
to be yelled at by tribal leaders who are upset about being stuck in
“Pakistan,” before flying down to Delhi to be yelled at by Indian Army officers
who are upset about being stuck in the Indian Army.
“The Japanese Elections” Japan had
an election, and the centre-left won over the far left, which was a surprise as
the polls showed the Social Democrats gaining ground.
Those Japanese sure are strange!
“Wait until 1950” The debate on
civil aviation was “muddled,” due to the Government’s scientific-technical
crystal ball being broken. If only we had full technical efficiency, the
Ministry would have a splendid crystal ball that would tell us exactly what
planes would be flying in 1950, and they would all be English! The paper uses
some interesting arguments to show that buying American planes might save
dollars, because they would be more efficient than the planes in use now, which
spend dollars in operations in various ways.
Letters
C. L. Wrenn[?], of the School of
Slavonic and Eastern European Studies (I’m told that this is part of the
University of London, but the University of London has special protocols that
mean that you never say anything so clearly; need I add that it is where the
paper’s journalists go to learn to read and write?) says that just because they
cooperate with the Polish government doesn’t mean that they are terrible
communists. The paper replies that they are, in fact, terrible communists. H.
A. John Green makes an obscure joke about a “Marshallian approach to the
problem of cutting down consumption of cigarettes.” Harry Norris[?], of 26 North
Circular Road, N. 13, writes to talk about the amount of national income
required for capital replacement. It’s either less than the paper thinks, or
possibly more. Stefan Roland, of the Polish embassy, writes to point out that
the paper was too hard on the Russians in the matter of the European Coal
Organisation., while R. C. Hazel, of 52 Long Acre, W.C. 2, thinks that the new
Fire Service Bill is too expensive, and John Monroe, of 13 Old Square,
Lincoln’s Inn, thinks that the
Government is BUNGLING profits taxes.
From
the Economist of 1847 Something called “the voluntary system [in
education]” has not been given a fair trial, and its critics are awful. I happened
to mention this to Father Murphy in a telephone conversation the other morning,
and it turns out that the paper is just making excuses for the inexcusable
again. .
At least the paper has made some progress in a century, from thinking that
compulsory education is evil, to thinking that it is necessary to achieve full
technical efficiency. (Just so long as the poor aren’t allowed to get ideas
above their station and go to Oxford.)
Books
The paper’s major book of the week
is Oliver Franks’ Central Planning andControl in War and Peace. The paper likes it because Franks says that
planning could be good, but the Government is BUNGLING it. Harold Wincott’s The Stock Exchange is just the book for
people who like reading about stock exchanges.
A book in French about exchange controls is very interesting, and
reviewing it shows that everyone concerned with writing and reading the paper
is as fluent in French as you, and ever so much smarter than me, who can barely
put my tongue around the languages of my childhood. Thomas Skinner’s The Bankers’ Almanac and Year Book for
1946—7 is for light reading in the bath.
 |
| Oliver Franks |
American
Survey
“The States and Labour” From a
Correspondent in Iowa
While the Senate struggles to revise
the Hartley Bill, many states are taking the lead in advancing anti-labour
legislation, which is very popular among the core eastern Republican voters,
“employers, black-coated workers, rural and small-town people.” The latter are
particularly important, the paper points out, because of the way that
representation is weighted in favour of rural districts.
“Prices on the Balance” Everyone is
against rising prices, but no-one can agree on what is to be done, and strict
measures are unlikely, because everyone is petrified of another depression.
“To Veto or Not” Whatever form the anti-labour bill takes, it will reach the White House shortly, along with Congress’ tax
reduction bill, and the one banning “portal-to-portal” pay. The President must
decide whether or not to veto them, especially in light of the “awkward
appearance of a budget surplus” instead of the expected deficit.
“Gagging the Voice of America” The
Office of War Information did a good job of spreading the American official
position, but now the Senate seems determined to eliminate its budget. The
paper is upset, and thinks that General Marshall will be, too.
Also excitable, the Federal Trade
Commission on big mergers, which it would like to slow down, for fear of
monopoly, and wool farmers, who are determined to get a price support at 42
cents a pound (still too low for our tenants, alas), over and above the current
34 cents import tariff.
The
World Overseas
“Russian Power Moves East” The
Russians are on about moving all of their industry and power generation east of
the Ural Mountains again, and the paper is once more reminded that Russian
eastward interior colonisation is just like American interior westward
colonisation. And it is! Montana is just as awful a place as central Siberia,
and will probably end up with about the same population. Now, there is the tiny difference that at the end of
America is California, which is quite nice (and the Oregon country, too),
whereas at the end of Russia is Vladivostok, and if the war hasn’t improved on
the town I saw in the spring of 1939, all I can do is pull the coverlet up over
myself and shiver theatrically in a Santa Clara day that is far too hot for
bedrest.
 |
| Look at all the virgin land that can be opened up! |
“Northland of Canada, II: Oil, Gold
and Uranium” Speaking of awful places with very small populations that are like
to stay that way notwithstanding the boosters, now talking about “radical new
techniques of soil heating in Arctic regions by atomic energy.” Though there
does seem to be a prospect of an oil rush.
 |
| The story of Canadian postwar oil and gas, as I understood it, was that someone just struck oil one February 1947 day in southern Alberta, so all this talk of a Northwest Territories pre-rush is new to me. |
“China’s Check on Imports” Father
says that the Koumintang has choked off Chinese imports and investment with
runaway corruption. Which is also what the paper thinks. Although it does hold
out the prospect of an American loan easing the problem –Never mind selling
sheep farms for houses and house-trailer parks; if that goes through, we need
to think about selling the Benevolent Association Hall! We could build
something in the valley for the younger generation, and put in a covenant
allowing for a senior’s centre on the main floor –our elders might be suspicious
of all the rich immigrants in the tony new apartments, but I think they could
be persuaded to go along with it. What do you think?
Great dexterity is needed to navigate the China scene.
Oh, wait, no, the American loan is
supposed to be spent in China, not Chinatown. My mistake.
The
Business World
“Prosperity for Wool” Demand for
wool product continues to go up while the available labour remains 15% below
the prewar level. The paper thinks that the only solution is to --somehow-- recruit the labour force back up to 200,000 workers.
Business
Notes
“Nationalisation and Steel Policy” I
skipped a story about food subsidies (the paper is against them, and thinks
that they are driving up the cost of living), or I would have skipped this one,
too. Which covers a new press controversy over the new strip roll mill in Wales. (Not enough,
too-expensive steel, coddled workers, etc.)
Several stories on the Bank of
England, lending rates, bond issues and the profit tax follow that make an
intricate tapestry of a thousand careful knots if you are a City man, and an
early nap if you are not, before the paper moves on to “Drawings on the loan,”
which points out that last month’s £62 million draw on the line of credit
was the largest ever, although pressure on the Canadian loan has relaxed
somewhat. The paper concludes, again, that the loan will run out next summer.
As for the relief on the Canadian loan, this probably has a great deal to do
with the revaluation of the Canadian dollar to parity with the American last
year; but growing strain on Canadian exchange is currently being addressed by
strict exchange controls which are hard to reconcile with Bretton Woods, ITO, (and
a three thousand mile open border.) The Canadians will probably run down their
gold reserves, declare an emergency, and introduce import controls, rather than taking the radical step of devaluation. In
other Imperial news, the English and Australians are negotiating a preliminary
settlement of Australia’s sterling surplus before moving on to free exchange
within the sterling area, and the rupee is under pressure due to massive Indian
silver imports. Private import is now banned, the price of silver is rising on
the Bombay exchange, and is touching on the “melting point,” where it is
profitable to melt down the rupee. Because the rupee is now only 50% fine, it
is much more difficult than in the previous crisis of 1920, when it was still
11/12ths fine, and when the price of the rupee advanced over 2s. Nowadays, the
“melting point” will not be reached until the rupee hits 200 (to the ounce, I think?)
Tis could happen, and the government’s reaction is to extend the use of nickel
for silver into higher denomination coins; investors’ response has been to
hoard high silver coins, with the result that the rupee is becoming more dear,
making it harder to hit the “melting point,” but thanks to the ban on private
imports. . .
I see why people are so jealous of
bullion coinage. Once they understand what is going on, they are like members
of a special priesthood who can tell you what a change in the alloy content of
a coin on the other side of the world must mean for prices here; and presumably
make a great deal of money on it.
Or not, for from the Texas City
explosion aftermath comes word that this will be the largest disaster to hit
the London insurance market since the San Francisco earthquake, due to the
Monsanto plant not having adequate coverage against the possibility of being
levelled by a single blast. Even the most painstaking calculations of the
actuaries of London did not get that one right!
In business news, ICI’s annual
returns have been hit by the profits tax, the London Rubber Exchange is far too
cheerful considering that the world is facing a 200,000 ton shortfall this
year, and the London Passenger Transport Board has had a swinging year due to
everyone taking the bus again.
Flight,
8 May 1947
Leaders
“Two More Records” English “aviation
prestige rose again last week” When various English airplanes flew very fast to
new places.
 |
| What does a Transport Command Mosquito transport, anyway? |
“Time for Segregation?” The paper
takes a victory lap over the presumed imminent arrival of the ShortS-NotGoingAnywhereFast on all Imperial routes due to the Government deciding
not to buy any more American aircraft. However, it then worries, what about
airmail? Air passengers all have a secret desire to take leisurely air-sea
cruises to Australia, but letters don’t. The answer is specialised mailplanes,
or “segregation.” Sure, it has never worked in the past. Sure, they would have
to be designed, built, flight tested and put into service, by which time Short
Brothers will have long since run out of new names beginning with “S” for the
Sunderland. But all these problems could
be fixed in an alternate dimension, where The T’ai Ping Rebellion was just a
bunch of grousers at the village tea shop, and the speed of light is 7 miles
per hour. This time could be the charm!
“Dropping the Payload” BEA is
following the Air Safety Board’s recommendation to reduce the takeoff weight
limit for the Dakota. The paper congratulates it for taking a financial loss
just so that some people can not die.
“Two London-Capetown Records” Two
planes flew to Capetown very fast; more details.
Basil Jackson, AMIAeS, ARAeS,
“Servicing and Maintenance: Planning for Practical Requirements: Meeting the
needs of High Utilisation: The Importance of Comprehensive Manuals” Designers
should take more care over maintenance.
D. W. Weaver, “Congo Bound, Part II:
Flying in the Congo: A Visit to Lagos: Airfield Facilities, Lympne to
Leopoldville, Summarised” Congo actually is quite exotic. D. W. Weaver flew 10,000
miles in the course of his trip. A sentence or two on each if the airfields he
used, ends the story.
“Italian Transports: Useful Designs
by S.I.A.I.-Marchetti” The former Savoia-Marchetti is marketing three transport
variants with wooden wings and welded-steel tube construction. The largest is a
four-engined type, the S.M. 95.
 |
| Get your vital air transport sector working again with the planes you have, instead of expensive imports. Makes sense, you'd think. |
Here and There
The USAAF is building an airfield in
Maine with 10,000ft runways, a Meteor is on show in Sweden, and BOAC is opening
new sales offices in Chicago and New York. A ship’s engineer is flying from
Glasgow to Sydney because the engineer died, and a ship cannot leave port
without him. See? Flying to Australia (fast) is useful! Air Marshal Harris said
in Montreal that the war could have ended in 1944 if only all the bombers had
dropped bombs on Germany all the time instead of wasting their efforts on this
and that diversion, such as D-Day.
G. H. Parkes, “Blind-Approach
Presentation: Stereoscopic Range Indication Combined with Essential Flight Information”
“Indicator” and “Vertigo” have both emphasised that the information available
to pilots for blind landings could be presented to them in a more useful way,
making landings safer and less stressful. As I understand it, a stereographic
movie is taken of a perfect landing at a given airfield. This movie is then
shown to the pilot making a blind landing, with the speed of the film and the
moment it starts, chosen by the aircraft’s position in the navigation beam,
speed and such. It’s all very elaborate, and the image of the pilot flying
while staring into a little stereoscope is a bit ridiculous. The thing is that I’m
not convinced that it could be implemented any faster than a good, light,
aircraft radar. Maybe the stereoscope box could show a projection of the CRT in
a corner, or something? In shorter news, the new Cessna has a nice
undercarriage, one of the King’s Flight Vikings might be going to New Zealand,
and a pilot is trying to fly a photoreconnaissance Spitfire from London to
Buenos Aires (but not direct).
“Britain’s Test Pilots, No. 22:
Captain H. A. Brown” Captain Brown fought in the World War, spent the Twenties
as an air adventurer before getting on with Avro. He got a gong in 1946 for
flying so many Lancasters in so many modifications, but probably deserved it
for surviving crashing a prototype Avian in 1929 in spite of breaking every
bone in his body.
 |
| A surprisingly large number of test pilots in this series have had very serious crashes in the past, breaking more bones than people should break, for their own good. Also, they all retire early in 1947, basically the first chance they get after the war. I don't think that it is a coincidence. By Brorsson - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=16924050 |
In shorter news, Boeing is
experimenting with folding tails on the various B-29 developments such as theC-97, so that they will fit in standard airline hangars.
“DIM Types –And Their Habits: Some
Backchat About the Backroom Boys in MAP Days” Some boffins the writer knew back
in the day, were actually quite dim, and didn’t know things, and it is all
hilarious now that you think about it.
In shorter news, the accident report
on the September Renfrew Airport accident concludes that the captain of the
crashed aircraft confused bearing instructions for another plane as being for
his, and that blame is due all around for various lapses in radio manners.
“Private Enterprise: Scotland
Welcomes Opening of New Renfrew Factory” The new King Aircraft Factory in
Renfrew, Scotland, is a miracle of free enterprise.
 |
| Oh, I'm sorry. I thought it said, "Herald of free enterprise." |
Civil
Aviation News
“Air Traffic Control for Europe” Has
been agreed upon by a conference that met quietly enough recently that this is
the first I’ve heard of it.
“North Star Performance” The paper
reminds us that the Canadair North Star might be a DC-6 in disguise, but it has
English engines and runs fine, although it is very noisy.
“BEA Safety Standards” The paper
covers the reduction in permissible takeoff weights at a slightly greater
length.
In shorter news, Air Marshal Bowhill
is wandering England, looking for a good flying boat base. Air Commodore C. S.Cadell has left the RAF to join International Aeradio.
The United States is opposing holding open a seat on ICAO for the Russians on
account of communism is awful, and the Russians don’t seem to want it, anyway.
The Atlantic powers have agreed on who pays for the LORAN station in Iceland.
BOAC is inaugurating a weekly service from England to the Trucial states using “Plymouth-class” flying boats, which
are a technical extension of Sunderlands from having “S” names to having “P”
names. Mr. John Brancker, who coincidentally has the same name as a famous
English air-person of a previous generation, has been promoted at BEA. A new
medical insurance plan that pays the cost of dependents travelling abroad to
take care of Merchant Navy persons falling ill in foreign ports, will pay for
air tickets.
Correspondence
Martin Sharp, of de Havilland,
thanks the paper for scolding Mr. Powell, last week. G. N. J. Robinson thinks
that contra-rotation airscrews would be even more efficient with differential
reduction gearing on top of the current pitch-changing gear on the constant
speed unit, and servos that coordinate both “halves.”
R. Mulders, of the
Netherlands, remembers various fast mailplanes of the past, such as the Pander Panderjager. J. C. Correy has Theories about the defence implications of the
air carriage of freight that involve an admiral named Mahan that I mainly bring
up because I can’t resist teasing James. (James is of the opinion that he was
“fatuously slight,” and “obsessed with coaling stations at the expense of
diplomacy.” That being said, you will have heard Uncle George dilate on the
“disaster of 1898,” ((you probably agree with him!)) and that may be where this
is coming from.)
The
Economist, 10 May 1947
Leaders
“Is Britain Finished?” The
paper asks whether England has ceased to be an imperial power, and, if it has,
whether this means that it is no longer a great power. And if it is still a
great power, does that mean that the Empire was always only a handicap, as some
think? The paper concludes that Britain is great, that the Empire is great, and that the Government is BUNGLING and there is a lack of full technical efficiency. (The
English are simply too self-indulgent and frivolous to save money and build up
capital for reinvestment and increasing productivity, and the Government is
ruining the spirit of free enterprise with all of its socialism.) Fortunately,
once the postwar Depression is well on, the price of primary products will
fall, and England will be in the clover.
“Planners Opportunity” Morphine
is being taken off the market, alcohol is not nearly as effective as people
say, and counting sheep doesn’t work at all. But there's still economic planning!
“Divided Dominion” South Africans used to be divided, but now the Nationalists have invented “apartheid” to unify it. From now on, all White South Africans will be smashing non-White South Africans in the face with truncheons for looking
funny, while non-White South Africans will be trying very hard not to look funny. The paper hopes that in this bright new future, they can at least remember that England is
their best trading partner.
Notes of the Week
“The First Five Days” Miners
have got off to a flying start on their new five day schedule, and even taken
offence at the unofficial winders’ strike in the Nottinghamshire coal fields.
The paper predicts that it won’t last.
The Government is BUNGLING
National Service.
“Horse Sense in Lewisham”
Herbert Morrison gave a very nice speech to his constituents in Lewisham. It
wasn’t so much what he said, as the reasonable tone, which contrasts with the
“class war catcalls” of Shinwell and Summerskill. Of course, the Opposition has
been quite rude, too; but everyone can at least agree that it is worse when the
Government is rude, because it is calling for national unity. (Whereas the
Tories are calling for civil war, which is better? Is that what the paper means
to imply?)
Latins and Arabs are excitable. Dockers are boring.
(Glasgow dockers go back to work.) Talking about talking about tariffs and
trade at Geneva is going well, as it talking about talking about civil aviation
at ICAO, the former PICAO.
“Greater Syria” Iraq and Transjordan are ruled by princes of
the same dynasty, and they have had a nice meeting and agreed to talk about
talking. This has caused King ibn Saud of Saudi Arabia to blow a gasket, as he
hates the Hashimites and has a plan for a “Greater Syria,” in which Syria would
become a monarchy and be associated with his own kingdom, a scheme for which
Syrians have no more time than Hashimites.
 |
| So the idea is to destabilise Syria to drive Iraq and Jordan apart. The problem is that Wahhabi firebreathers do not get on well with westernised Syrian moderates. Oh, well, I'm sure they'll work it out, somehow. |
“Automobile Vital Statistics” Given rising incomes and
not-so-quickly rising car prices, it seems like that England will soon have 4.5
million cars, an advance of 500,000 over previous totals; and that since this
cannot possibly be made up from new production, the fleet is going to continue
to become more dangerous and also more expensive. (Because second-hand prices
will remain high.)
“Half-Cooked Tripe” The paper objects to the idea of
statutory closing hours for retail businesses on general principles, but is
cautiously encouraged by the prospect of expanded hours. There are also notes on
the problem of underemployment in the British Zone of occupied Germany, and on
the future distribution of population within the greater London area. The paper
concedes that Mr. Silkin’s defence of the Bankside Power Station was
convincing, and claims for the family allowance are coming in at an increasing
rate, with 4 million children now covered.
Letters
David Eccles has opinions about profit taxes and bonus issues. Several people
elaborate on John Green’s incomprehensible joke. Edward Glendinning, of Tanfield Mills,
Huddersfield, suggests that the wool industry might be able to cope with its
own problems, although the paper’s helpful advice is always welcome. A. P.
Ashford thinks that the Government BUNGLED the Italian settlement, especially
compared with the “niggardly treatment” of Denmark; while John Horner, General
Secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, writes to point out that R. C. Hazell has
no idea what h e is talking about.
 |
| Did you know that Marriner Eccles was the son of a fabulously wealthy Anglo-American businessman, who also has a business school named after him? I assume that this David Eccles is another member of this clan of pure talent. (Seriously: check out the biography. That's one heck of a story.) |
From The Economist of 1847
Apparently there was a bank panic in the spring of 1847? I
couldn’t find out very much about it, but the paper is in the full swing of panic. I gather that there was also a harvest failure. The country is in an awful
predicament; “a hundred millions of
people which inhabit these islands and adjacent countries” cannot be fed;
artisans cannot be eomployed; the public revenue cannot be maintained; the
country must set aside party and all other considerations and [do something].
Since “a hundred
million” people didn’t starve, I suppose that something was done, but as
far as I can tell, it was just a matter of suspending payments in gold for a
few months?
Books
Count Ciano’s diary has been published, and is apparently
quite the read. N. Sinai, Odin W. Anderson and Melvin L. Dollar, Health Insurance in the Unnited States
is probably equally entertaining. I’m not going to do that joke again for a new edition of a procedures
book for the House of Commons. J. Hampden Jackson has published The Between-Wars World, which is a
re-issue of a 1935 book and is at once far too leftist for the paper (at least
there’s no allegation of “communism”) and too out of date. And speaking of
books with no time for communism, the National Association of Manufacturers
have brought out The American IndividualEnterprise System: Its Nature, Evolution and Future, through the
McGraw-Hill publishing house. Even the paper thinks that it is a bit much.
American Survey
“Waging World Peace” Walter Lippman has explained General
Marshal’s mind to the US Chamber of Commerce. Germans must eat to be good
democrats, and therefore restrictions on German industry will be lifted.
American forces will remain in Europe for the time being, in case Europeans
lack the guts to fight Communism. For better fighting communism, there needs to
be higher defence spending. So as not to actually have to fight communists,
Congress has to approve the very high foreign aid spending proposed to it.
“Mechanisation in Coal Mining” Someone has been reading Fortune! More coal needs to be produced
with less labour, therefore more mechanisation. The paper notes larger mine
cars, more powerful locomotives, and a timber-setting machine, which is much
less dramatic than Fortune’s
imaginings.
American Notes
“The Truman Doctrine in Practice” Mr. Stassen’s tour of
Europe explaining America was a smashing success; Congress’ cut to UNRRA relief
spending from $350 million to $200 was not.
“Peace in Industry” With the second round of wage increases
complete, strikes have all but stopped –because the telephone strike is
“crumbling.” (The paper’s correspondents are not, I think, the talking sort of
men.) Labour peace might be interrupted by a coal strike, and might not be. On
the “not” side is increasing coordination between the AFL and CIO that might
make things difficult for the UMW.
“Constructional Activity” Predictions of a business slowdown
have come true, at least for building. The Department of Commerce has revised
its estimate from $15 billion in 1947 to $13 billion due to rising cost of
materials and shortages of key materials and skilled labour. Lumber prices are
beginning to decline. However, the GNP for 1947 has been revised from $205
billion to $210, so it is not all bad news. Unless increasing inventories means
that it is; and the costs of the Texas City explosion are likely to be
staggering, and to lead to supply bottlenecks.
The World Overseas
“The Scramble for Power in India” The Prime Minister’s
shocking statement that the English would be out of India by June 1948 has
triggered a scramble for power in the last two months, not well-noticed in a
thoroughly miserable England, or self-involved America. The main struggle is
for provincial office, since if the English have to devolve power to the
states, in the absence of a decided “India” and “Pakistan,” the boundaries may
depend on who controls the provinces and princely states. In Punjab, no
civilian ministry has been able to be formed, and there is virtual civil war in Punjab. The violence has spreads
to the Northwest Frontier, where the governing ministers are Muslim, but
members of Congress. Nehru is cozying up to the princes, and there are constant riots in Calcutta and Bengal.
Latins remain excitable. Germans, at least Ruhr miners, are also excitable.
The Business World
“Coal and Industry” The coal
situation continues to improve. The summer coal budget is now 93 million tons,
up from 89. “Planning” is for industrial consumption to be at the same level as
last year from June to October, but the paper thinks that there has not been
enough planning. And, anyway, there are more workers, doing more, so that still
won’t be enough.
“Convertability Ahead” The
paper reminds us that convertibility begins on 15 July, that it cannot possibly
be maintained, and that therefore there will be some terrible, vague disaster
next summer. The paper tentatively suggests not going to convertability at all,
but that is not nearly complicated enough, so it goes on to talk about
Americans and sterling balances.
Business Notes
“The Debtor Speaks Out” When
you owe the bank $1000, you have a problem. When England owes the world
umpti-illion pounds, the world has a problem, Mr. Dalton points out,
“unambiguously” pointing out that sterling balance holders need to accept a
“substantial scaling down of the sterling debts owed to them.” That is
understood to specifically mean Indians and Egyptians, as well as the
Brazilians Mr. Dalton was addressing.
“Light on the Profits Tax –And
on Bonus Issues” So here is light –You know where to find it!
“Fuel Crisis Post-Mortem” We
now have an idea about how much production England lost during the fuel crisis.
It was quite a lot.
“Drive for Generating Plant”
The English are now on a drive to increase diesel generating capacity by
200,000 kw by March and 300,000 kw by August, 1948. Subcontracting and
standardisation will ease the manufacturing effort, and heavy plant is being
sought in Germany. To reach the Central Electricity Board’s targets, new capacity
must be installed at a rate of about 1 million kw a year for the next three
years, or 1.5 million when industry is taken into account.
“Tea Prices and Supplies” The
retail price of tea will be increased by 4d/lb, a minor shock to consumers but
not enough to make up the shortage, and the Government is considering
subsidies. Wool stocks are also lower than expected, but it is not quite the
crisis expected, as manufacturers do turn out to know what they are doing. Also
turning out to be not quite the expected crisis is the US lead supply, which is
expanding even as substitutes are found in construction. Sisal supplies are also down, and prices up.
The setting up of the Steel
Company of Wales, which has required the import of expensive American equipment
for cold reduction (and so controversy) is going about as well as expected, and
the regulations restricting emigrants’ access to their sterling-denominated
savings have been slightly revised, but remain onerous.
Aviation, May 1947
This is the paper’s engineering and production
research issue. That means that there is a special insert on “aircraft
fasteners.” You know the weight, space, wear or cost-saving alternatives to
bolts and rivets they sometimes use on planes? There is a glossy paper insert
on them.
Aviation Editorial
“Third Rate: That’s U.S.A.”
John Foster, Jr., is a lower-cost editorial alternative to Leslie Neville. Just
as dumb, but he’s twenty years younger, so his health insurance costs less.
(I’m making this up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were true.) Anyway, he
starts off with the observation that, today, America has less air power than
Britain or Soviet Russia, making it “third rate.” I think he means “third
place,” as third rate means something completely different. I also think that
he means that he is so nuts he belongs in colour cells with a talking bunny before the
movie. What he means is that the air
force needs the deficiency bill, I won’t quarrel with that. Unintentionally, he
also means that, whatever you say about American air power, this paper looks
third rate –and that’s comparing it to Flight’s
smudgy austerity paper and stories about flying private planes to Darkest
Africa.
“Simple, But Costly and
Necessary” What does the air force need? It’s simple: it needs everything. It
needs compound turbines for a “simple up and down job,” turboprops, turbojets,
“airborne jets,” ramjets and rockets. Who knows what will turn out to be
useful? The point is, all that money spent is the best guarantee of the
nation’s security.
What’s New continues to be an embarrassment, with spots for a new
chair, a 21 ½ lb battery, and a “radar altimeter switch,” which is only more
sophisticated than it sounds because it is on a coaxial cable. There is an ad
for a Federal Telephone and Telegraph selenium rectifier, which is neat,
because I know from reading about them in Radio
News and talking to Bill and Dave, who think that, given that turning
direct current to alternating is basically just switching, you can do more with
them. This particular rectifier is actually a stack of selenium plates arranged
radiator style, with cooling by forced air at 200 ft per minute. The total
assembly ways 17lbs, is 15”x4 ½”x6 ½”, and can output 240v 25 amp current from
an input of 200 amps at 30v d.c.
 |
| It's important to remember that the Shockley group invented the semi-conducter transistor with pure SCIENCE in 1947, and that they in no way just developed long standing work with rectifiers, because rectifiers are boring and have nothing to do with Information Technology. |
Aviation News
General Eisenhower told the
National Press Club that the air force must be ready, and it is disturbing that
both the English and Russians have larger air forces than America. (Counted
how!? This is like those old numbers of Flight
where Romania has more aeroplanes than the RAF, isn’t it?) The paper adds
that most builders haven’t large enough contracts to keep to heir skills up,
which reminds me also of old newspapers where the English dockyards have to
build more ships (whatever is in the Estimates), or the shipwrights will all
emigrate to Australia. The Defence Department bill is still hanging fire.
“Some” say that America has no air policy, and now there is to be a
Congressional Committee to look in the closet to see if that’s true. American airlines aren’t dominating the world enough. Remember how America lost
out on surface shipping? That could happen again, somehow! People are still talking about the “Chosen
Instrument Bill,” although even Pan Am wants to get its merger with TWA
through, first. Sperry is offering another blind approach system, It is centred
on an electronic gyropilot that receives automatic bearing in formation from
either ILS or GCA. It is also designed for microwave-frequency radar rather
than the current VHF, since microwaves have more stability and sharpness. The
ATA has published a plan for the future of air traffic control. Either more
services will be granted on some routes due to not enough competition, or other
services will be canceled on other routes due to excessive competition, or
both. CAB and the airlines have agreed on a 10% fare increase. Light plane
makers are cooperating with the CAA to build small fan propellers and casting
undercarriage wheels, but did they wait too long, asks Blaine Stubblefield, who
is either still with the paper, or has agreed to do this column freelance,
which seems more likely. If, as I’ve heard someone say, Stubblefield has moved
back to Idaho, that makes this column especially sad, since he’ll be compiling
it out of the news wires.
Worlddata notices that Trans Canada is using DC-6s,that some people are talking
about putting Centaurus engines on Constellations, that China is trying to get
the CNAC running again, that Chile is planning a trans-South-Pacific servicevia Easter Island to Sydney, that Australia’s Council of Scientific and
Industrial Research has designed a line of automatic radar distance-meters for
Trans-Australia’s Sydney-Melbourne route that is “superior to anything produced
in other countries.”
There follows the fastener
feature.
Theodore P. Hall, Development
Engineer, Consolidated Vultee, “Service-Provoing Certfired This Integral Tank” What
Engineer Hall means is that the Convair 240 takes another swing at the integral
tank concept previously proven in the Catalina.
“How New Douglas Skystreak Will
Probe the Transonic” It’ll go fast without falling apart, which will allow the
pilot to tell everyone what going fast is like, on account of him not being
dead. Douglas did a terrific job of designing an aircraft that looks like it
will go fast without falling apart. Unless it does fall apart, in which case it
is all Fred’s fault. Fred is the one over there. You should go bother him.
Again, I am probably being unfair in my facetiousness, but this is a silly
article that describes the dimensions of the Skystreak and predicted
overpressures on various parts of the plane.
A short article by some United
Aircraft engineers (Wright, Curtiss-Wright) makes the case for model wind
tunnels as saving time and money ahead of tests in full-size tunnels.
Ralph Upson ends his series on
“Simplifying Personal Plane Design.” I would suppose that the next number of Aviation would be all ads, if this one weren’t already mostly
excerpts of another McGraw-Hill publication this month, for which see below.
James H. McGraw, Jr., “World
Leadership: Our Duty and Our Opportunity” America needs to spend money on aid
and relief, and, more than that, send experts overseas to show the natives how
to really screw things up. Germany needs “skilled supervisors,” for
example(!!!)
“North American Grooms XB-45
J-P Bomber” This is that strange North American jet bomber with the twin
turbojets in the same nacelle. They are indicated to be the GE/Allison J35, a
4000lb axial engine.
“Novel Four-Place Satellite
Readied in Britain” “Newly-formed Planet Aircraft” is going to produce an
all-magnesium private plane. the Satellite, with a
pusher prop in the tail and butterfly empennage, powered by the Gipsy Queen 31,
just as long as the laws of physics and chemistry have been repealed by a new
government before they get funding.
 |
| So it turns out that Gordon's Gin is behind this? Seriously? |
“Fleetwings Navy Bomber
Revealed” The above is just some boys in England with a nice hand with the
pencil and more enthusiasm than sense. This
is filler, a discussion of Uncle Henryy’s hopeless XBTK-1, yet another of
the late war dive bombers that were fine at dive bombing as long as they didn’t
have to pull out, afterwards.
 |
| To be fair to Aviation, these pictures and details seem to be new. "NATC recommended replacement of the novel exhaust system with a more normal system. . . " Recommended. |
“Searching Drag Studies Check
Speed Impeders, Part 1” It turns out that someone at NACA Langley had the
notion of putting aircraft in wind tunnels and measuring their drag. This part
explains work on engine coverings. (This is one of the articles listed under
the “Engineering and Production Research” label. My guess is that the paper
wrote to Langley for some free science, and got this filler.)
“Cathode Tube Improves Compass”
This is actually pretty neat. It’s Minneapolis Honeywell’s “Cathotron,” a
cathode gun with a ray that is arranged to deflect in the Earth’s magnetic
field, so that it illuminated a compass dial on the CRT with the direction. It
is more reliable than a regular compass since there is no lag, no iron needle,
which produces some distortion in regular compasses and no northerly turning
error. It is also more precise, and can be used to control large coils to
create a magnetic field-free space. (And to correct a gyrocompass, although it
does hunt a bit.) The article goes into a little more detail on the way that
Cathotrol correction on the gyrocompass corrects autopilot deviations, as you’d
expect from Honeywell, but the basic concept is clear enough, and very neat.
I’m not going to talk about
Eastern Airline’s new battery hoist, which looks like every hoist ever, and is
somehow the very cutting edge of full technical efficiency.
 |
| Either we get the Cold War going, or we're just going to have to give up on scientific progress. |
Raynor F. Sturgis, “Factors in
Helicopter Economics”
 |
| Note that America's population in 1960 will be 180.7 million, not 155. |
“USA: 1950—1960: Precis of a
Report by the 20th Century Fund” The Century Fund published a very
impressive forecast of America’s next decade and a bit, and editors across the
land seized on it as free content. Fortune’s
coverage is a series of very nice graphics, so I am going to rely on those. However,
the summary says that there will be twice as many Americans in 1960 as in 1900
(155 million compared with 70); but three times as many families, as family
size is falling. The population will have more older people, more city dwellers
and slightly more small town residents, but fewer farmers. The labour force will be more skilled, more
women will be working, and farming will shrink at the expense of all the other
slices in a pie graph. (That is, “manufacturing and construction,” “trade and
services,” and “other” will all grow at the expense of farming, but the graphic
doesn’t show how much. Perhaps the one in Fortune
will. This is slightly important
to people looking to build houses on farmland, so you’d wish for a bit more
precision, but since it is all crystal-ball gazing anyway, I fear that more
precise numbers will just lead to misplaced confidence.) Unemployment is
expected to be about 5%; and that the average work week will continue to
shrink, down to 38 hours a week in 1960 in non-farm employment. With vacations,
absenteeism and sickness included, the US will put in 121 billion man hours of
work in 1950 and 118 billion in 1960, compared with 105 billion in 1940 and 154
billion at the peak of the war. (No wonder we were all so tired and washed
out!) How much will be produced? That depends on productivity. There was a
five-fold increase in productivity, measured in value per hour, from 1860 to
1940. This is expected to continue, as the Fund predicts that energy
consumption will rise from 289.4 billion horsepower-hours in 1940 to 489.8
billion in 1960, and more energy per man-hour means more productivity. The Fund
also points out that this improvement in productivity will not lead to
“technological unemployment.” Machines “Do not kill jobs,” or, at least,
haven’t yet. (Although the example of trucks replacing horses isn’t entirely
heartening, since they certainly killed horses’ jobs.) In constant dollar
terms, the Fund predicts that productivity per person will rise from $1.22/hour
in 1940 to $1.44/hour in 1950 and $1.70 in 1960. Living standards will rise,
people will eat better and consume more,
taxes will have to remain high
to cover war debt, and there will be a trend of decline in the ratio of
investment to total output. People will
also travel more. “In 1916, the average person traveled 490 miles. By 1940 the
average had grown to 2400 miles. The Fund predicts that this will continue to
increase, but does not give a number. It does predict that there will be 36
million cars on the road and 100,000 private planes in the air in 1950, and
that the auto industry will be able to sell 5 million hew cars a year after
1950; 4 million for replacement and a million for population growth. It also
projects demand for capital goods, but this is less certain due to new
industries producing goods not yet widely available but sure to have broad
appeal, such as synthetic fibres.
Cost of government will also
rise, as will the cost of increasingly scarce primary products.
America will not be a utopia in
1960, but it will be richer.
Fortune, May 1947
This will be an unusually brief
entry, because the May number has major articles on Henry Ford II’s new management
team at Ford; the holding company created by the infamous Mark Hanna, which
owns a number of stodgy, gilt-edged, blue-chip stocks, and keeps a board of
high Republican worthies barely in work in a very nice office building in
Cincinnati; the Sylvania Electric division of GE; a large coal owner; and Royal
Little’s “Textron” initiative in cotton. None of these are particularly interesting
from a technical standpoint, notwithstanding that “Textron” sounds positively
science-fictional, and Sylvania makes electronics. The paper took some nice
pictures at Rouge River, but if I included every nice picture of the last two
weeks, the envelope wouldn’t close!
Leaders
“Can Prosperity Last?” The Economist is on board with an
American business recession with its usual more-in-sorrow-than-in-Oh-Hell-We’re-Over-the-Moon-To-Report-Bad-News
style. Fortune is less certain,
thinking that the current “gloom” is just a Puritanical reaction to too much
boom. The paper can’t help bringing up Henry Moore’s sunspot-cycle theory (when
sunspots go away, the Sun cools down, harvests fail, and hard times follow),
even to say, oh, pshaw, we don’t believe it, but there’s the numbers! I think
the relevance is that sunspots are down? Even the paper thinks that rising
inventories and falling consumer spending are more reliable tells of a business
recession, and they are rising and falling a little bit, respectively.
Consumers aren’t exactly spending less, but their purchasing power is falling
with rising prices, and that is a concern. Savings are also falling, to 10% of
income, and the usual sort of worrywarts think that this is too low to provide
sufficient capital investment.
The Fortune Survey
This week’s survey is of
factory workers, who mostly like their jobs, feel secure in their employment,
but not necessarily respected by their management.
“The Rebirth of Ford” Henry
Ford II has quite the challenge ahead of him!
 |
| The River Rouge plant is huge, is the point. |
“Hanna is as Hanna Does” What
Hanna does, is own a great many stocks in a great many staid businesses –mostly
banks, but also one each utility, iron, rayon, plastics and oil company as
well. Owning stocks employs Carl N. Osborne, Joseph H. Thompson, James
Predergrast, N. L. Ireland, and William Collins as well as the current Hanna
scion. They all dress well, and spend many hours at the office watching their
stocks go up and down and doing –something. The company has $50,501,00 in investment, and
produces an investment in come of $3,833,000.
 |
| It turns out that the Hearst press, as the voice of populist conservatism, didn't have much time for the business conservatives exemplified by Mark Hanna. It's like they were Republicans in terminology solely, or something like that. |
“Mr. Young and his Company”
Roger Ralph Young has combined a railroad and some coal mines into a very big
company. It is doing well, so far.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silly_Putty
This, on the other hand, is
very interesting. As well, there are many possible plastics applications for
which phenolics, vinyls and cellulose are not suitable. There are many modern
lubrication applications where heats run too high for conventional oil
lubricants. For example, a pioneering use of silicone plastics was in the
gasket for Navy searchlights, which are not like a conventional flashlight in
the sense that a conventional flashlight won’t cook a person standing in front
of them. (Or the gasket that keeps water out of the filament). Silicon has the
same chemical structure as carbon (although on further reading I find that that
is a gross exaggeration, and that it took forty years of laboratory work to find
silicones analogous to hydrocarbons), but a much higher molecular disassociation
energy, which means that it can be used to make the same kinds of substances as
hydrocarbon plastics and lubricants. (You could make gasoline out of it, too,
but the combustion byproduct is sand, which is hard on engines.) A million
pounds of silicone plastics were produced this year, mainly as hydraulic fluid.
We are told that U.S. chemists Eugene Rochow and Winton L. Patnode “carried the
silicones out of the laboratory,” but the story actually starts, not
surprisingly, in England, were Dr. Frederick Stanley Kipping, of University
College, Nottingham, England, did the most important work after 1900. (I say
not surprisingly because, as James pointed out, the Admiralty got into
extreme-condition hydraulics with the Hele-Shaw pumps on the new naval gun
turrets at that time.) The US work, we are told, turned European science into
practical engineering at Cornell, which needed new lubricants for making Fiberglas.
GE also tried to get into silicone production, but the war ended before its
factory was up and running.
Because the silicones have
analogues to all organic (that is, carbon-based) molecules, the paper says, eventually
there may be as many silicone plastics as regular ones. Given the bad news at
the head, I’m not as convinced, but I am convinced that this is going to be a
growing industry. Who knows what kind of things could be done with silicones?
“Sylvania Electric” Sylvania
makes lightbulbs and fuzes. It made proximity fuses, which used to be impressive.
“The Airline Squeeze” The paper
covers the fact that the airlines are over-extended and in trouble. 
“Mr. Wilson at Work” General
Electric’s President invited a correspondent to follow him around work for a
few days. It turns out that he is a regular business tycoon.
“How Well Can Americans Live?”
The paper covers the 20th Century Fund Report.
“Textron” Royal Little, of Textron,
did very well out of making parachutes for the war effort.
20170624_224450857_iOS.jpg
“The Great Oil Deals” The paper
covers the big oil deals signed by American oil companies in the Middle East
recently at great length. This is far too important a subject for me to just
dash off a facetious summary, so I’ve appended a separate report, below.
 |
| This is not the place for a potted history of American oil deals in the Middle East. But it is a nice map. |
Shorts and Faces This month’s people that the paper would really
like to know better are Charles Willoughby, who runs a financialish company in
New York, Olive Ann Beech, of Beechcraft, and Bing Crosby, as an example of the
ongoing American music boom that everyone was expecting to be in retreat by now
due to overproduction, unions, the Chicago
mob, bad sound quality and who knows what else.
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