Postblogging Technology, September 1945, I: Family Atomics

From Nyrath's Atomic Rockets site. Best webpage ever!

R_. C_. (Group Captain, RCAFVR, Ret.),

The Athenaeum,

London, U.K.

Dear Father:

Please accept everyone here's congratulations on taking the bull by the horns and tendering your resignation. I had the feeling that with all the atomic fever these days, you might have been held in limbo for as long as you chose to delay your decision, and you are needed far more in Vancouver than in endless meetings, trying to peer in through the clouds that hide the future of our new atomic age.

You will be glad to know that I am out of hospital and fully ambulatory, although I shall not be able to ride until after surgery and rehabilitation, which Doctor Rivers has me down for in December. And that is probably as much as you, a man, wants to know! I have been introducing the twins to their baby sister, who was in such a hurry to see the world, and making their acquaintance again. Thank Heavens for Fanny and Judith!

Thank Heavens, too, for  Uncle Henry, who visited me repeatedly in hospital. Ironically, he could not see me during my time in Permante, Oakland, although I was in no shape to entertain visitors! Still, he is enormously pleased at the work done by his hospital, and has been working up a speech on the importance of health and highways in the postwar world. Ideally, he needs a few more alliterating desireables for his "Post-War Four Points," but Permanente and an American autobahn are a good start. Now if only I can persuade him to leave the Satsuma money where it is. The last thing anyone needs to hear is of Japanese investors in Frazer-Nash.

As for our business here, Miss v. Q., your correspondent of the last month, has at last made her much-talked of journey to Virginia, to gingerly feel out just what kind of work might be available for a polyglot of her talents in the new work of no-more-Pearl-Harbours. It was very much a rush, as she had to be back in town for the beginning of classes, so she will be return in December, hopefully this time as a married woman, for Fat Chow is now expected at the end of the month. Your youngest practically flew over us in his haste to reach MIT and "real engineering" classes, with so little time in San Francisco on the layover that we ended up sending "Miss V.C." out with a care package. She has since been amusing us with unladylike improvisations of a chant which begins "Rooty-toot, rooty-toot, we are the girls [lads] of the Institute. . . "

Speaking of "Miss V.C." she is now fully roped into Lieutenant A_.'s round of San Francisco visits around the Gold Coast. As he is perhaps not the most charming of spokesmen for this oh-so-sensitive business, our old friend, the Engineer's natural son, is in for the ride as well. (Actually, he is charming enough, if he can avoid making a bad impression by breaking an antique vase. Just ask your cousin about that, as any excuse to talk about it. . . ) This makes "Miss V.C." all the more important. Not only does she have working tyres on her car, but she is the only one of the three who is actually attending the university! To the extent that the mortgage holders are at all motivated by the Governor's oh-so-noble goal of educating the youth of California with ill-got British investors' money, perhaps a representative of the new generation will help. 

If, on the other hand, it is a matter of the interest rate which the university can afford to pay on the instruments, probably not. I hear that the Trustees are increasingly focussed on the paper held by this general in Berlin. It's the Harriman stake, and might be enough to cover the university's needs, with stringent economy. Will "Miss V_.C_." might soon be taking her European grand tour under the most unusual circumstances?

The thought of "Miss V.C." having a Berlin adventure is, almost, enough to make me hope for the success of the project. After all, if exchange controls are maintained in Britain, we shall not need to take up another line of work to keep the Earl and his friends in sorts, after all. 

The Economist, 1 September 1945

Leaders

“Dollar Crisis” As of last Friday, the United Kingdom was spending £2000 million a year outside the sterling area, and selling £350 million in exports to them. That’s why it does not have the dollars to buy American wheat, oil, nylon stockings and Frank Sinatra records. An American credit at 30 years, 2 3/8 interest is proposed, but this seems to dear to the paper, which suggests taking the smallest possible loan at the best possible terms at the expense of the most hardship possible. More exports, more privation, faster demobilisation, less foreign involvement, and lower prices for our exports, hence full technical efficiency. Possibly also continuing exchange controls. Which would be a boon to us, so let us see.

“Second Battle of Europe” The last battle of Europe was a war. This is a war, too –against starvation! The Unrra needs more resources, more manpower and of course full administrative efficiency. Otherwise, there might be social collapse in Europe this winter.

“Releasing the Surplusses” There are some surpluses of things which might be released for public consumption in Britain this winter, to make up for all the things the British do not have. The picture is unclear, and the paper helps by releasing a cloud of words on various subjects such as whether machine tools are included, or whether village shops might get a share of any surplus of things which might be sold through village shops. And on and on.

“Balkan Governments” The Balkans are excitable. And increasingly communistic.

Notes of the Week

Japan has surrendered officially. The Japanese, as Orientals, are inscrutable. For example, they seem more pleased than disappointed by the end of the war. It’s almost as though they were losing it. Though the wily Japanese might just be feigning.

“Russo-Chinese Pact” The published pact is deemed surprisingly favourable to the Chinese, and it is supposed that the Communist cause is thus collapsing, and that Yenan will shortly give up.

“The Rate of Release” The Government is BUNGLING demobilisation. BUNGLING, the paper says.

“Post-War Forces” The only part of this which can be excused is that the forces are uncertain about what they will need after the war. The paper suggests a 750,000 target, down from 5 million at the end of hostilities in Europe.

“Bomber Harris” Air Chief Marshal Harris has retired. The paper says good riddance to bad rubbish, as apparently strategic bombing did not work.

“Fathers and Sons” Now that the election is more than a month past, it is time to speculate on huge realignments within the traditional parties. Left wing Conservatives, right wing Labourites, and who knows what will happen in the very near future, except that it will be very exciting. But not excitable. See also, “The Charter Debated,”  the inter-party talks on parliamentary reform, the Transitional Powers Act, and talks about a Nordic Union.  

“Shanghai and Hong Kong” Shanghai has been liberated by Chinese troops, and that is all right, as it is almost a Chinese  city. The same, of course, cannot and will not be allowed to happen to Hong Kong. And speaking of obstreperous wartime allies, de Gaulle is in Washington doing French things. Australians are also out and about, afraid of being “cold-shouldered” by the powers, but might not count as obstreperous. Well, Australians are always obstreperous, so there is a double standard? No, the French are obstreperous, too. But as they are foreigners, it is to be expected? Nigerians, not being allowed to be obstreperous, as they are colonials, so they are striking, instead. They cannot be given way to, lest inflation strike.

“The Morris Report” House prices are up 60% over 1939 in London, 127% in Wales over the last two years. It is suggested that sale price be controlled for the next five years to prevent further run-ups.

“Labour for Building” A postwar target of 1.25 million has been accepted, against a prewar 1 million. As at present the total is only 600,000, up from a March 1945 low of 337,000, there is a long way to go. The paper goes on to repeat its concern that in the vast and distant future when Britain is cutting the prices of all of our exports to compete with Albania and Norway, this will be too many, and the industry will be overstaffed and overtrained, and it will be a disaster. Hence we should have the right kind of training, in “civil engineering,”as opposed to “construction,” right now.

American Survey

“Confidence” (From Our Washington Correspondent) Uncle Henry wrote a guest column for Drew Pearson on the subject of free enterprise, open markets, no rationing, fewer controls, etc. After his visits, I could have written it myself. A “four-point post-war programme . . . of homes, health, highways and transportation.” Have I mentioned how please he is with his hospitals? I'm sure I have. He glowed! Although that is to be expected of Uncle Henry, at least at times. . . James A. Farley, of the New York City Committee for Economic Development, estimates a quarter million more jobs in the city than before the war. The Washington Post covers six veterans who have joined together to create a new business, “Reproducers, Incorporated,” which is interested in all the various new ways of making business records. A sobering note is the Bureau of the Census’s report on the labour force, which is at 52.66 million, 600,000 more than in June, but which, without seasonal adjustment, would be 400,000 less, an early pointer to the rise in unemployment everyone is expecting. Willow Run is closed, the Saturday Evening Post points out, and 24,000 are on the unemployment lines. Leon Henderson warns that if the fight against inflation isn’t won, the war savings will be lost with it.

One way of looking at this ad is that it is a War Loans advertisement. The other is that I liked the image.

American Notes

The abrupt termination of Lend-Lease is considered perfectly appropriate by Americans, and even the six billion tiding-over grant is controversial, with some Americans upset that they are giving money to socialists. Reconversion is deemed “uncontrolled” heading into Christmas. American conservatives are pleased by all this liberty, while British observers think Americans are soft and spoiled by all the unrationed gas and meat. Unemployment may be expected, and Republicans are setting their sights on major gains in the 1946 Congressional elections if it is serious and protracted.

The Business World

“Short Commons for Livestock” The herd in Europe and Britain is in decline, and this is largely due to the decline in feed grain. Argentina, Canada and the Danubian countries are traditionally the major suppliers, and the failure of the 1943 Argentina corn crop did not help. This year’s estimate is for only 2.9 million tons, against an average of 7.5 million in 1939—44. America, on balance a feed grain importer, has its maize crop down from 82 to 71.1 million. Barley is down to 5.9 from 6.2. Canada, overwhelmingly the major supplier to both Britain and the United States, has seen a modest increase of barley 185,000 to 416,000; oats, 100,000 to 879,000. This is very small compared with the increase in the Argentinian corn crop, and must be maintained. This leaves the DAnubian countries on the one hand, and oilcake on the other. The paper has an estimate for oilcake imports (2.7 million tons for Britain; 3 million for western Europe, but not of  exports from exporting countries. So in the near term we can expect the pressure of feeding the human population to lead to a further decline in herd populations and more meat and dairy shortages.

“The Organisation of Dock Labour”: Will there be a strike on the London docks, and, if so, whose fault will it be? Yes, is the answer to the first, and no-one cares but the paper and the politicians to the second.  At least the paper is willing to concede that shortage of dock workers is an argument for higher wages. Now what about coal miners?

On the other hand, wages are falling because there is less overtime, so workers' reaction is going to be a bit ambiguous. Overtime tends to lose its appeal after a while.

Business Notes

“US Coal For Europe” America is currently committed to sending six million tons of coal to Europe per month contingent on transportation being available. The end of the Pacific War releases transportation, and the end of Army contracts is expected to relieve a deficit of 25 million tons/year in American domestic supply. This may allow an increase in American exports to Europe to 8 million/month. Also, more fuel oil will be sent. Britain is sending 200,000t/month, and together with the fuel oil, this will meat minimum European requirements. European production is recovering, but not rapidly, and the same problems of lack of investment and of labour are in play.

Finance news includes the failure of the City to collapse in the face of Labour rule, a scheme to reorganise Alberta’s public debt, and a rise in French share values. Not strictly financial is news of rapidly increasing American productivity per man hour in many industries, but notably coal mining, where is has declined in Britain, and in steel and textiles, in which Britain and America compete. Also, ice-cream making, because it is “amusing.”

“Currency Chaos in the East” The catastrophic Chinese inflation is surely worth a paragraph or two. Unrelated,surely, is news of Southeast Asia Command’s rapid intervention in Malaya to ensure tin and rubber exports to the United States, which is key to salvaging the sterling area, however much or little actual Malayans want nylon stockings and Frank Sinatra records. A hydroelectric scheme is going ahead in Scotland, International Tea has record profits, diamonds have prospects, and there is another short bit about edible oil and oilseed imports into Britain. Palm kernels, ground nuts and cocoa are up, copra and butter have been down, lard is up. 

Flight, 6 September 1945

Leaders

“The Sun That Has Set” Japan has surrendered. Aircraft were involved, and also a battleship.

“End of Censorship” But not really, because the paper still has to keep everything readers are actually interested in secret, until everyone already knows.

The actual illustration on this page doesn't mention that Meteors were flying in action over southern England in broad daylight before they were taken off the Secret List, but it might as well have.

“Jungle Maintenance: Sisyphus Task of RAF Ground Crews in Burma: Working in 150 deg F. Inside Aircraft: Abnormal Expansion in Heat: Corrosion Overnight in Monsoon” “Heat stroke and exhaustion killed a fair number of these ground crews.” That is . . . dreadful. Men got second-degree burns from touching tools. The temperatures inside aircraft reached 155 degrees. Guns fired spontaneously from ammunition “cooking off.” In the hot part of the year, crews started work at dawn and tried to knock off from noon to 4, but this was not often possible. Wooden and fabric structures gave the most trouble. Cyclones were a problem.

“Bomber Harris Retires: Famous Chief Leaving Service: Deputy Chief of Staff Takes Over” That is, Air Marshal Sir Norman Bottomley. I wonder. Were Englishmen with these really silly names not permitted to emigrate to America, just to avoid embarrassment? Sorry. Anyway, at least the paper avoids The Economist tone. I’m just surprised that The Economist didn’t contrive to blame Harris for wrecking the German coal and steel industries at the same time that it blamed him for wasting resources in a futile bombing campaign.

Here and There

Canada’s aircraft industry is much expanded by the war, while the USAAF is to be cut from 2.15 million men and 65,000 aircraft to 600,000 men and 8,000 aircraft. Hawker Siddeley is nominating three members to the Board of Directors of High Duty Alloys. A neat picture shows the P-80 in a test flight, with wool tufts glued to its wings to track airflow.  A Bell P-59 is to be donated to the Smithsonian Museum, now that it is three years old, and an antique. At least 30,000 Australian aircraft workers are to be discharged. Talks on Air Geography are scheduled on the BBC Light. 

A shuttle service through Casablanca is carrying American servicemen home, with the planes flying French refugees back to France on the return leg. More than 8000 have already gone. The end of the war with Japan means the winding up of the rest of the Empire air training scheme in Canada. Meanwhile, the Empie Air Navigation School has been reopened at Shrewsbury.

“The Warnborough Accident” It turns out that one of the many British physicists on Miss v. Q.’s watch-list was killed in this accident, flying at night in a Mosquito while testing a “secretdevice.” The accident was caused by “adverse characteristics developing in the experimental equipment.” The injured pilot was thrown free of the wreck awake, and able to pull his parachute.

“Safety Fuels: Standard Oil and Pan American Plan Refuelling in the Air” Pan American and Standard Oil have been researching a safe, high-octane fuel since 1932. It is ready for distribution in the United States through Intava, and may be used for in-air refuelling.

“RNZAF in the Pacific: Oxfords and Harvards as Operational Types: Changeover to Ameerican Types for Final Stages” New Zealand had Empire Air Training Scheme bases, and when the Pacific war broke out, used its Hudsons to look for Japanese, fortunately without finding any. Oxfords and Harvards were modified as bombers in case the Japanese invaded, and from the summer of 1942 increasing numbers of New Zealand squadrons used reasonably modern American planes against the Japanese.

“The Mathis 42E 00” This is the latest news of the French six-bank In-line engine giving 4,000-5,000hp that no-one is ever going to buy. Although spark plug  manufacturers are certainly going to want to see a 4-Mathis airliner with its 168 cylinders!

“Stratovision” It has been a week since the last article about the Westinghouse-Martin plan to cover the entire United States with television-relaying planes flying at 30,000ft, so here is another one. The required plane sounds like quite the technical triumph.

B. J. Hurren, “Clear Upper Deck: New 14,000-ton Light Fleet Carriers: Development of Aircraft Carriers from Original Conversions” A picture of light fleet carrier HMS Vengeance, and an unidentified sister ship shows that the Royal Navy has a great many of these ships. (Seven names have been announced.) We are told that they have a top speed of 25 knots and a capacity of 33 aircraft, about the same as the previous “Large Fleet carriers,” the ones with the armoured decks. They have more space, 695ft flight decks, and no obstructing AA guns.

C. B. Bailey-Watson, “Bomber’s Radar: General Survey of the Three Primary Systems Used by bomber Command” The systems are GEE, OBOE, and H2S; so, in short, two radio beacon navigational aids and the 10cm “navigational,” or ground-imaging radar. All three use cathode ray tube displays, which is a lot of CRTs for one aircraft, bssides of course all the vacuum tubes. Uncle George may take his victory lap, now.

“Disposing of the Luftwaffe’s Bombs” We’re blowing them up in great masses. It seems awfully wasteful, but I suppose that it is the only way.

A. V. Cleaver, “Bombers or Rockets: Some Further Thoughts Prompted by the Atomic Bomb: Enormous Possibilities of Atomic Drive for Rockets” Now that we  know about atomic bombs, doesn’t Robertson’s argument about the need for aircraft bombers for sustained bombing campaigns seem silly? What is more, if we could just use atomic propulsion, the range limit on rockets would be eliminated! The only answer would be radar-guided defensive missiles, which would ram into the attacking missiles “high in the atmosphere or beyond.” Although if we actually fought such a war, “it would preclude the survival of much of the civilisation which allowed it to begin.” A tiny little atomic bomb-propelled rocket would be many times more efficient than a conventional rocket, perhaps 400 times. We do not, however, know exactly how such a rocket would work. Perhaps through direct radiation pressure –the little atomic bomb model—but also perhaps through a stream of sub-atomic particles in a reaction jet, or perhaps by heating a working fluid. Once we have such rockets, it would be no great matter to escape the Earth’s gravity and reach the planets, unlike with conventional rockets, where the energy requirements are daunting. “The release of atomic energy will make interplanetary travel not only possible but imperative,” Mr. Cleaver quotes a friend of his (Fl./Lt. A. C. Clarke), who is apparently some kind of expert.

Civil Aviation

“Ease of Handling: Planned Freight Loading: Efficient Equipment” The title makes it a little less than clear, but this is an article about how efficient the Martin Mars will be when it is used in the US Navy’s trans-Pacific air transport service. There is even an artist’s impression!

Artist's Impression

Civil Aviation News

New air services, now including a French trans-Atlantic service via Newfoundland, perhaps an American Tokyo connection, and Chinese plans.

Correspondence

R. Swingler, B.Sc., gives “a Stressman’s brief explanation” of centrifugal force. Douglas Deans discusses radio for light aircraft, while several writers discuss the sad fate of the Observer Corps in this modern day of radar and rockets.

The Economist, 8 September 1945

“A Policy for the Ruhr” The Great Powers cannot compress some sixty million Germans into a territory little larger than Britain and then deindustrialise it. If they are to compress, and there is no sign of a letup in the expulsions of Germans in the east, then industrialisation is the only way forward. France therefore wants to internationalise the Ruhr so it can get to work shorn of any aggressive tendencies. The paper’s preferred solution seems to be for all the Powers to stick their oars in, with just the right administrative structure to bring about all good things in the fullness of time.

“Inflation –Or Self Control” Britons should keep on saving, lest inflation break out at the least thought of splurging on this or that. In particular, the accumulated £575 million in postwar income tax credits cannot be released yet, no matter how much workers hit by the end of overtime might want them.

“New Start in the Middle East?” A new approach which will certainly lead to  a bright new era in the Middle East under British direction. It could even be another India!

Notes of the Week

“Orderly Chaos” Demobilisation is being BUNGLED!

“Lend-Lease” The Government seemed as though it was not being serious about the end-of-Lend-Lease negotiations because Lord Keynes sailed across the Atlantic instead of flying, but now it seems that delay was a masterstroke, because American opinion is advancing towards the advanced opinion that they should just write Lend-Lease off.

“Japanese Stock-Taking” Japan is to have party politics again, with a united social democratic party and a business-based conservative answer. They are also afraid of the Communists, who have advanced into south Sakhalin and Korea. No mention this week on the drive to advance Japanese science, though.

Downtown Yuzhno, Sakhalin. Japanese cars, anyway.

Moroccans, Persians, Indo-Chinese, Greeks, the Trade Union Congress, feminist career women and French leftists are excitable. British intervention in the Greek situation is mooted.

“The Miner’s Role” The paper welcomes the miners’ effort to improve productivity, and notes the controversy over whether to extend daylight savings time to save coal, at the expense of the farmers.

“Temporary Houses” Are temporary houses too expensive? It might well be, but the real problem in housing policy is that housing ministers do not talk about housing policy enough. Everyone should talk more. Preferably writing everything down in small print on thin paper, to reduce imports.

Correspondence

A full page of letters. The Chairman of the Cotton and Rayon Merchants’ Association and the Secretary of the Retail Distributers’ Association write on matters dear to their heart, while J. H. Lidderdale writes on the advantages or not of cyclotractors. The paper explains that a 3 ton lorry can move 80,000 tons per year for every ton of its own weight, while a locomotive can move 200,000 and a “rail cyclotractor” 800,000.

American Survey

The final report on culpability for Pearl Harbour is out this week. The paper thinks it will help the cause of  “those” trying to reorganise American military intelligence into a united service.

A Piggly-Wiggly man!

“Payments in Kind” Americans continue to struggle with the idea of how Allies are to “repay” Lend-Lease without American dollar earnings.

“The War is Not Yet Over” America is BUNGLING demobilisation.

The boys are in a hurry to get back.

Also, the OWI has been disbanded, the end of food rationing is reducing American surpluses, and there is actually some agreement in America for relative deprivation there to feed the hungry of Europe. Uncle Henry is manoeuvring to take control of the Geneva plant, has interested himself in “mobile homes,” and, of course, in Willow Run. This is taken as “Kaiser Reconverting.”He is also talking about making cars on the Pacific Slope to sell to Asian markets, which Detroit thinks is crazy, but something has to be done about layoffs in the shipyards. Says the paper. Given the labour shortage, it seems like this would take care of itself.

The World Overseas

There is discussion on how to supply relief to Jugoslavia, which has starving people, but also Communists who are not Russians. Starvation is likely in some parts due to a poor harvest due to poor sowing last year, the devastation of war, and decline in livestock population. Also, there is not nearly enough transport to move relief supplies.

“German Farming in the British Zone” Up to the end of the war, agriculture was very productive in Germany due to the favourable Kriegskonjunctur of abundant labour, fertiliser and high prices. This can be seen, for example, in livestock numbers, where although there was a steep decline in pigs, the cow population was actually up at the beginning of 1944, from 3 to 3.1 million, although the size of Germany had, of course, changed. The decline since then, to 2.3 million, was in part caused by war, but mostly by mass slaughter to feed displaced populations. The contrast with horses, from 1 to 1.4 million due to the release of army horses, is spectacular. Various harvests are down, and there is a cumulative deficit of 2,000,000 tons of grain in the British zone, although this is a dietary deficit, not one of absolute need, so that herring and fish can be substituted as well as American grain.

“Reconversion in Canada” (From our Ottawa Correspondent) Given demand, the Canadian government thinks that there is no reason why there should be significant unemployment postwar in Canada.

Swedes are excitable. And short of coal and coke.

The Business World

“Empire Partnership in Wool” Uncle George has repeatedly said that we need to get out of sheep. The sterling area’s determination to export everything it can into the dollar area just makes this more pressing. Our Chicago relations are grumbling, but, frankly, there’s no more future in canning mutton than in selling wool.

“Ruhr Coal” The coal famine is the most disastrous famine facing Europe, and Ruhr hard coal is the only available supply to meet British and American sector needs. In 1939, the average daily output was 418,000 tons, and employment was   315,000. The next three years saw a steady rise in numbers employed, and a steady decline in output, to 390,000 tons and 385,000 employees in 1942. This was due to the conscription of younger miners into the armed forces and wear on mining equipment, while German miners were transferred to more congenial kinds of work and replaced in underground mining and from coal getting to haulage by foreign workers, who were less productive. In 1943, output fell from 390 to 342. In the first nine months of 1944 it was up significantly, but then collapsed, so that in January of 1945, monthly output was 5,775,251 million tons, and employment was 375,150, including 218,000 Germans. After four months of Allied occupation, employment has risen to 261,000, although at 1000,000 underground to 60,000 surface, the proportion is “abnormal.” Monthly output was 1.6 million tons, so productivity is very low, and actual saleable coal after mine use, coking, and briquette making is negligible, 675,000 tons in July. Conscription may be needed to bring 100,000 into the mines, and while “the healthiest workers” are getting 3200 calories/day, their familes are getting only 1000, and miners are absenting themselves to look for food for their families. House repair is another cause of absenteeism, which has reached 25—30%. One quarter of capacity has been knocked out by enemy action, but can be brought back quickly enough with repairs. Supplies from pitprops to rope to water softeners and miners’ clothes are short. So are building supplies to repair houses, lest cold add to malnutrition in cutting productivity. A quarter million roof tiles are needed, for example. 

Business Notes

The pound is falling against the dollar, but this does not mean that there is a case for a change in theexchange rate. The market is rallying, stocks of sugar will be higher in 1946, many British civilian service industries are dangerously short of labour, and the average weekly earnings of British workers began to decline in July 1944, and is still falling, mainly due to less overtime.

The Economist, 15 September 1945

“Recipe for Reconstruction” Sir Stafford Cripps lays out the government’s plan to reconstruct the cotton industry, which will hopefully be a model for the future.

“A Treaty for Italy” The Powers are ready to sign a peace treaty with Italy. The paper thinks that Italy should not pay reparations, should lose the Dodecanese to Greece, Libya to a British Mandate leading to self-government by the Senussis. Tripoli, Eritrea and perhaps Italian Somaliland should go back to Italy under a United Nations mandate.

“A National Map Service” Would be a good thing, the paper explains at three page length. It would be better than the existing arrangement, which involves the Royal Engineers for some reason?

“Report on Spain” The paper’s Correspondent finds fascists everywhere., Perhaps he should point them out to the Spanish government? There are both bad and good things about this, and one of the bad things is power outages and poverty. Perhaps the Army will stage a democratic coup against Franco? That might well be a good thing!

Notes of the Week

“UNO and the Atom Bomb” International control of the atom bomb is debated.

“Demobilisation” The TUC thinks that the Government is BUNGLING demobilisation. The TUC, General de Gaulle, and French leftists are excitable in other ways, too.

“Mass Expulsions in Eastern Europe” Some 9 million Germans are expected to be expelled from Czechslovakia and post-war-border Poland. This forced mass migration is an appalling human tragedy and the paper would like the Council of Foreign Ministers to speak firmly to someone and put a stop to it.

“The Liberal Dilemma” Is that hardly anyone wants to vote for it, which is a real problem considering that the paper wants them to vote for it. Clearly the solution is to get a new British electorate.

“The Price of Progress” In a speech to the Labour Women, Mr. Morrison says that British industry must have higher productivity, and the key price here is £1000 million spent on re-equipment. The paper applauds, but calls on the minister to be frank and admit that this means £1000 million not spent on consumption. The paper volunteers to lead the way by taking fewer cold baths than it does already.

“Far Eastern ‘Vaudeville’ In Disguise” Pravda thinks that Japan’s postwar reforms are mere vaudeville. The paper has finally realised that it can have bleak opinions about Japan’s future now, and catches up on lost time by predicting (perhaps) starvation, 25% unemployment, followed by social collapse. 

“A Government for Korea” The United Nations has declared for Korean independence, but now a government must be found. There is, in fact, a Korean government in exile, supported by Chungking, and has been since 1919, but no-one cares about that. The problem is that there are Communists, too.

“Myth in the Making” It is suggested that trying German war criminals will, in the future, create a myth which future German aggressors will exploit. The paper thinks that we should have just, I don't know, shot all the Nazis, or something, and that this would have made future Germans much happier.

“Canadian Mutual Aid” Canada will not expect repayment, which is nice.

“Raising Coal Output” Will nationalisation help? Maybe, and maybe not.

“Service of Youth” There need to be more youth services, or possibly fewer, or different. I’d have to actually read the article to know.

 American Survey

“The Problems of Business” This is by Our New York Correspondent, so I am sure that the problems will prove to be intractable and mortal, and the only thing for it is to stick one’s head in the oven before the growing cancer leaves us incapable of doing it for ourselves.

Well –on to the actual article! Businessmen are in a maze, because the future is unclear. Perhaps commodities will go up. Perhaps they will go down. Unemployment will go up, or down. Interest rates may rise slowly, or rapidly, or stay the same, or fall. Stocks may rise, or fall. Well! And at the end of the maze (do mazes have ends?) is a horrible monster made in equal parts of World Chaos, Depression, New Deal and Socialism. It breathes fire, too. And then something about black sails? I think this is some kind of play on Greek mythology.

“President and Congress” The President’s Message to Congress was very long. So is this article. There is disagreement about the length of Federal unemployment benefits. Public works, including a vast new highway system and Tennessee Valley Authority style developments in the Columbia, Arkansas, Missouri and Central Valley are proposed. A 50,000 man draft is proposed for next year. Congress, which is conservative due to a coalition of southern Democrats and Republicans, is hostile.

American Notes

“The Pleasant Predicament” is back. But how will it be possible, what with inflation? American business looks for Far Eastern markets.

The Business World

“Ruhr Steel” As with coal, about 30% of capacity in northwestern Germany has been destroyed by enemy action, and another 20% put out of service, with the balance of the loss of production due to other factors such as labour and transportation.

There is also as length discussion of changes in the law concerning corporate directors, something to which we all shall have to pay attention.

Business Notes

“A Large US Merchant Navy” Vice-Admiral Land continues to think that a large part of the American wartimefleet should be kept in service, 17 million of 45 million, representingtwo-thirds of prewar merchant tonnage, with 20 million put up in reserve and 8million sold to other countries. The paper is underwhelmed, as importing shipping services is another way to balance the dollar exchange.

An agreement has been reached on Anglo-Dutch currency exchange, and the franc might be devalued. Investments in Argentinian and Catalonian rail are discussed. British agriculture is “in transition.” The  paper is fine with it right now, but thinks it needs to transition away, later, when it will be 1846 again. There is a labour shortage in many industries, and the paper allows that the fact that they don’t pay very well probably has something to do with it. Sir Stafford Cripps warns that exports must take precedence over home consumption.

“The Redistribution of Incomes” Mr.Tibor Barna’s Bowley Prize-winning essay, “The Redistribution of Incomes Through Public Finance in 1937” has now been published, the paper tells us. So this is News! It turns out that taking from the rich and giving to the poor makes the poor richer, and the rich, poorer.

“American Cotton Policy” Is to hold the amount of acreage in production under 20 million, and if this is continued, the American surplus will be gone in 3 years, without need for forced exports, and the rest of the world can get a look into the market.  

Flight, 13 September 1945

Leaders

This number arrived in America without cover and front page, but the lead leader seems to be about railways and civil aviation.

“The Battle of Britain” We are having an anniversary, and celebrating the fastest ever crossing of the Atlantic –by a reconnaissance Mosquito, and not a Douglas A-26, if you were wondering.

Ernest P. Brodie, “What the Private Owner Does Want” Higher prices and more demand for wood pulp for papermaking?

Here and There

Air Marshal Harris has gone to South Africa on vacation, or some such. The current issue of Flying mentions the Consolidated P4Y Corregidor, Grumman F8F Bearcat, Northrop XP-56, a magnesium flying wing, now in production, and the C-70, which is not a previously unknown American type, but a Ju-52 in American markings. 

Consolidated XP4Y Corregidor

Curtiss XF15C, actually mentioned elsewhere, and not a rocket plane.

A B-29 has set a new nonstop Honolulu-Washington record of 17 hours. I wouldn’t want to be the 9 O’clock of the admiral arriving from Honolulu after a 17 hour non-stop in a B-29!

“Liquidating the Luftwaffe” The RAF is blowing up, disassembling, and whatnot.

“German Jet Rivalry: More Details of existing and Projected Turbine-Jet Units and Aircraft” The rivalry was between Heinkel, Jumo and BMW. The former began research into jets, but could not get permission to branch out into jet engine production, leaving Jumo and BMW to continue their rivalry. Since the Germans began work on the axial-engine path, their engines quickly became quite elaborate. An eight-compressor unit was under development, but held back by a shortage of critical materials. The Ju 287 was the heaviest jet bomber in development, but there seems to be some confusion as to whether the actually-existing Ju 287 in this month’s Aviation is the one that Junkers proposed, which would have had forward-swept wings.

“The Kaiser-Hughes Hercules” Another article on Uncle Henry’s giant plane credits him ahead of Mr. Hughes, so that’s nice. It’s also apt, in that it’s no more likely to be built than Uncle Henry’s west-coast steel making-auto-building conglomerate.

“The Decca Navigator: New and Revolutionary System for Instantaneous and Accurate Position Indicator” This is a more elaborate version of a radio beacon system, built by the famous record-player and radio maker. Obviously the ground stations are built by someone else entirely.

"Decca Navigator Mk 12". Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Decca_Navigator_Mk_12.jpg#/media/File:Decca_Navigator_Mk_12.jpg

P. Umpleby, “Deflect-Reaction Propulsion: Some Theoretical Considerations of  an Unorthodox Method of Increasing Jet Efficiency” by bending the tube through which the reaction jet flows, various effects can be achieved. Most seem like they would be more efficient at braking the aircraft than propelling it, but that would be useful, too, wouldn’t it?

N. D. Ryder, “Keeping Watch on Jerry: how the Photo. Recce. Squadrons Went to Work: Secrets of Medmenham’s Cellars: Aircraft and Equipment” Well. Here are your lads. At least before you were diverted to searching out radars and beacons, and then to hunting for radio-active atoms floating about in the atmosphere.

Civil Aviation

“Iceland Airways: Modest Beginnings: Operational Conditions: Future Prospects” Iceland is cold, northerly, isolated, and has poor internal communications, a perfect set-up for a small airline flying cheap, small planes in the summer. In the future, it is hoped to fly wealthy Englishmen out to enjoy the “winter sports season,” because there is nothing like casting for salmon in Iceland in February. Although flying into Iceland in February is probably close.

Correspondence

Roy Fedden writes to point out that a friend of his, Mr. W. J. Stern, did quite a nice paper on jet turbines for the Air Ministry back in 1920, and his contribution seems to have beenoverlooked. Speaking of neglect and being overlooked. H. E. Carroll writes to suggest that the paper slighted his efforts on aerial parachute mines, which were held back by Air Ministry inertia. The paper replies that it did nothing of the kind. It just reprinted an Air Ministry news bulletin. F. A. de V. Robertson writes on the question of bombers versus rockets to ask if atomic bombs were “necessary?”  The point here is that perhaps Japan might have surrendered without them, although I am not sure how this applies to the “bomber versus rocket” argument in any way whatsoever.

Aviation, September 1945

Line Editorial

James H. McGraw, Junior, “A Tide in the Affairs of Men” “On 6 August 1945, an atomic bomb exploded over the Japanese city, Hiroshima.” Junior reminds us that it has been only 50 years since the Curies began to research “how the atoms of the universe are put together.” It is a power capable of unravelling the very fabric of civilization, and transcends national jurisdiction, and cannot long be the monopoly of only one, or a small group of nations. With this in mind, the paper has a number of articles explaining it in non-technical ways. They are very pretty and well-composed, and surely must have been sitting around the office for months.

Bombs, bombs and more bombs apart, there is an interesting discussion on the possibilities of atomic power. This would take the form of a steam plant –water would be circulated around an “atomic pile” of uranium metal, which would be decomposed by flying neutrons into lighter metals plus heat, which would go into the water . This is best done with uranium which has been quite expensively treated, since it must be enriched by adding additional U235 isotope mechanically separated from the inert U238 isotope.

It turns out that exactly this is not what is happening at the Hanford military reservation. The point of the reactor there is to create the artificial element, plutonium, which results from some neutron impacts with uranium. Plutonium can be made to explode in the same way as U235, and, being chemically different from uranium, is easy to extract by chemical means. This makes it possible to manufacture atomic bombs out of plutonium much more cheaply than from U235.

 The very hot water this produces could be the feedwater for a steam plant. At Hanford, it is only used to keep the atomic “pile” from melting, and does not get hot enough for steam making. (It also seems to have some importance for keeping the flying neutrons in line. Or perhaps I have it confused with “heavy water.”)

Now, on the basic economics, turning a Hanford style plutonium-producing reactor into a steam plant would just require better plumbing, but it would be much better to “enrich” the metal in the reactor by adding additional U235. Unfortunately, this adds greatly to the expense.

It gets more complicated in that the basic problem is one we haven't really dealt with before --those flying neutrons. To have a “chain reaction,” the neutronshave to be slowed down by a modeator. (Also, various of the decomposition products of uranium fission “poison” the reaction, and one of these products is the plutonium that we want, anyway.) A natural uranium pile can get hot enough to make steam, but it has to be enormous. Adding additional U235, as is done at Hanford, reduces the size. Also, we can look at better plumbing. And, finally, the radiation produced by the pile is quite dangerous, and must be guarded against.

This is nothing like an atomic bomb, which must be capable of spontaneously supporting a very fast chain reaction. This is only possible with a sufficient mass of very pure U235 or of plutonium, perhaps between 1 and 100kg. It must also be concentrated into a small mass at precisely the right moment, perhaps by some kind of implosion-explosion-collision. For peaceful purposes, much lower concentrations of U235 might be better, as well as cheaper.

Aviation Editorial

Leslie E. Neville, “Split Elements and Human Elements” We won the atomic race, but we must remember that we also need airplanes to deliver atomic bombs, so the future of peace and civilisation depends on both. Neville recalls how he pointed out the folly of atomic secrecy in his October 1944 editorial, and, sure enough, it turns out that he did. So the atomic bomb wasn’t really secret then, and the method of making it isn’t really secret now –at least, the omitted details presumably can be worked out by the scientists of other countries. Things must be done to greet the dawning of the atomic age, etc.

Herb Powell, “The Atomic Frame of Reference –Or Else” Atomic bombs are very dangerous. Just look at these pictures of Hiroshima. In the near future, we will see V-1 or V-2 type weapons carrying atomic bombs, and these will be more dangerous still. All countries that want them will have them, and we must do –something.

H. C. Lawrence, Radio Corporation of America, “War-Developed Radar Promises Swift Peacetime Progress” A very basic explanation of how navigational radar works, of the radio altimeter, which isn’t really radar, and LORAN, which isn’t, either. They are, however, going to be important to civil aviation, no argument.

Technical Sergeant David Stick, “Parapacks Kept ‘Em Punching” Apparently, supplies were dropped to forward troops via parachutes!

Irving Stone, “Design Analysis of the Fairchild C-82 Packet, Part II” The C-82 is a very important plane that wasn't built much and which no-one will buy.

Ralph H. Upson, “Designing Tomorrow’s Personal Plane, Part IV” Upson discusses “pusher” configuration planes and succeeds in explaining why no-one builds them.

P. E. Humphry, Aeronautics and Marine Engineering Division, General Electrics, “Self-Contained Sub-Assemblies Feature B-29 Gun Turret” The very compact and reliable turret uses four subassemblies.

E. B. Sarreals, Industrial Analyst, Kollman Instrument Division of Square D Co., “For Precision with Proft, Count Those Costs” Various things lead to costs. Unless they are carefully accounted for, you may sell your products at a loss! Here are things you can do, such as carefully analyse input materials to treat them efficiently; season metals subject to low temperatures carefully; quality control; operations analysis; functional analysis of inspection; gage control. These are things which can be done!

J. W. Kelly, Chief Engineer, Adel Precision Products Corp, Adel “Towards Better Combination Controls” Adel Hydronic controls are the bee’s knees!

C. F. Reusch, Chief of Materials and Processes, and R. E. Green, Supervisor of Template Reproduction, Consolidated Vultee Aircraft Corporation, “Production-Wise Technique Multiplies Template Repro” Loft masters and templates are being produced at Convair’s new reproduction department at mass-production speeds!

Look at how these templates and loft masters are processed to make the information available to other steps in the manufacturing process. Someone should come up with a misleadingly simple  label for this and go on to build castles in the sky of it. Preferably ones that involve all the people who beat us up in high school being permanently unemployed and possibly murdered in death camps because they are terminally useless.

M. G. Scherberg, “Putting Taxi Stability Into Conventional Tail Gear” Steerable tail wheels are nice, if you can make them practically. Here’s a way of doing that.

This month’s maintenance article covers de-icers.

“Nipponese Navy’s Debut-at-Finale Bombers” The paper covers the Aichi Ryusei 11 (Grace) and Mitsubishi 24 (Betty_.

“Consolidated Vultee B-32 in Last-Round Action” The B-32 was allowed to drop some bombs there, at the end. It is a much larger B-24 in many ways, but includes features such as the Curtiss engine synchroniser. It is the first production plane with it as standard equipment. The new management at Consolidated Vultee is also willing to admit that it has a "modified Davis wing." Which isn't very good news for Mr. Davis, considering.

“That Zipping Lockheed P-80” The paper decides to have a good old fight with Flight and The Aeroplane (if it is still around) by suggesting that the P-80 is “credited” with a speed of “over 550mph.”

“Convair Coming Out with Twin-Engine Airliner” There’s an artist’s impression, too!

“C. W.Industries ‘Copter is Two-Place Roadable” The Flymobile Two-Place Roadable is a co-axial helicopter that you can drive as well as fly. Or will be, someday.

“Four-Place Air-Car is new RoadableProject” By Airmaster, designed by H. D. Boggs, and might be the pusher that Mr. Upsom is making fun of.

“Jarvis Firm Introducing VJ-21Two-Placer” Designed by a sailplane expert, so you know that it is extra-light.

Two marketing articles, on parts distributors and a “village floatplane base” follow.

James B. Rea, “How Jet Propulsion Simplifies Cruise Control” Because jets are simpler than internal combustion propeller engines?

Aviation News

Aircraft contracts have now been cut back 90%. At best guess, the industry will have an output of $1.3 billion in twelve months, and employ between 250,000 and 300,000 workers. It will still be three times bigger than in 1939, but those are some cuts, and most of the 59 airplane plants, 20 engine plants and 7 propeller plants will have to go back to peacetime lines of work. Only Boeing’s B-29 contracts have not been cut. A Fairchild gun synchroniser can simultaneously synchronise every gun firing through a propeller arc in spite of different placements, is electronic, and minimal sized. The Curtiss XF15CF-1 is the first American rocket fighter.

Aviation’s War Report No. 44, “Final Communique” At least it’s closer to the date than most of these reports. It turns out that we did bomb Japan into surrender, in case you were wondering.

Aircraft manufacturers continued to make a lot of money in the last six months of the war.

The Washington Windsock

Blaine Stubblefield thinks that the atomic bomb is a big deal. I continue to think that Blaine Stubblefield is lucky to have a job.

Aviation Abroad

The Seafire XIV and Junkers Ju-287 jet bomber are noted. The last looks a bit jury-rigged. It has a fixed undercarriage! The paper is appalled by English Labour socialism.

"Modellphoto Ju287V1 1" by JuergenKlueser - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Modellphoto_Ju287V1_1.png#/media/File:Modellphoto_Ju287V1_1.png

Fortune, September 1945

Fortune’s Wheel

The paper’s monthly schedule means that this number was in production in August, with work already begun on the October number, when news of Japan’s surrender came in. It has been revised in various ways, and has a new cover.

It looks like UBC's original copy went missing at some point.

The Job Before Us

America went from 45 million employed in 1939 to 63 in 1945. (Its population also increased by a full 9 million, almost as many as in the ten years before, but from birth rate numbers that was mostly babies, not that you will read that in this number of the paper, but I thought I’d throw it out, in case you haven’t seen the story in the press.) Anyway, it made lots of stuff, won the war, and now the problem before us is reconversion and the refugees of Europe.

“The Air War on Japan, I” Apparently, we bombed Japan! Originally, 20^th Air Force was created to attack Japan from southern China. B-29s based there would have the range to attack the Imperial Iron Works in Yawata, which make so much of the country’s steel that knocking out their coking ovens would strangle Japanese war production. Plus, it would keep China in the war and satisfy sectors of American opinion. The paper says. It did not work out. For one thing, defective engines had to be shipped back over the Himalayas and despatched to the United States on “cannonball” expresses, which I did not know, and the whole thing did not exactly catch the Japanese by surprise. and at the same time, plans for the Marianas base were going ahead, and they did succeed.

“The Nash Tunes Up” Frazer-Nash-Kelvinator aims to produce light-weight, economy cars. This sounds nice. Now, obviously, I wouldn’t drive a Nash, or let any of my children or other people drive one, but there are those who need a cheap car. Whether a light car is a cheap car, taking maintenance into account, is another matter.

“Shot, Shell and Bombs:” A $3-billion Ammunition Industry, Built in Three Years, Tripled its Rated Capacity to Give U.S. Soldiers Overwhelming Firepower” The US has made more than 5 billion pounds of TNT, in plants run by Quaker Oats and Coca-Cola, since the existing industry could not expand its management team enough. Fuze assembly lines make 2,400 an hour. Composition B, a  mix of RDX and TNT, has come down in price from 30 cents a pound in 1943 to 11 cents in 1945. The United States had only one dry powder plant in 1939, the du Pont Barksdale plant, able to make 100,000lb dry powder a day. In that year, the British commissioned a du Pont plant in Tennessee to make TNT and smokeless powder. It was taken over by the U/S under Lend-Lease. In the 1940 Emergency period, fourteen were commissioned, rising to 36 by the aftermath of Pearl Harbour. By 1945, there were 58 government-owned, contractor-operated munitions plants. 

The United State's largest x-ray machine examines TNT castings for bubbles.

Fifteen plants were built to make toluene from oil, replacing coal gas production, and the price has come down from $2/gallon to 27 cents/gallon. Five plants were built to make ammonia from natural gas, replacing coal gas production, again. In an only-in-America detail, most of the procurement and management effort was administered from the cavernous basement of the ScottishRite Cathedral in St. Louis, Missouri.   

“Bob Woodruff of Coca-Cola” I suppose this is the number to talk about the man who runs the fizzy-drink company? He is a very hard working man, well known in sporting circles for all the time he takes off. He is also a very modest man. While he may own five homes, some look like the homes of men who aren’t all that rich. ("A $10,000/year man, not a $10 million man.") Except for his apartment in New York.

“I.T. and T.’s Nine Lives” ITT has survived all the things it has survived.

ITT did badly when business was bad, but survived when other businesses didn't. Therefore, we are writing this article.

“The Foreman Abdicates” The CIO is fighting with management over whether the foremen of various companies, especially Ford, can be union members.

“San Francisco Album” Now that the Conference is ancient history, months and months ago, it is time for Anton Refregier to recall it in watercolours and his sketch pad.

Misogyny is always good for a laugh! Gals swoon at the sight of Anthony Eden!

James M. Landis, “Middle East Challenge: A Vast Market Likes Our Goods, Our Gadgets, Even Our Manners: If We Don’t Sell More Than Ever Before, It’s Our Own Fault” Harvard’s dean is the new American “Middle East Missionary.” I would, personally, choose a different figure of speech, but what do I know? Anyway, Russian communists are a threat, and there’s lots of oil. The fact that the Middle East is in the sterling area makes this complicated, and we should try to end this. After all, the larger the sterling area, the larger must be England’s reserve of dollars, which has risen from $200 million in 1939 to $2 billion now. On the other hand, maybe this is justified, and we shouldn't try to fiddle with the sterling area. But what about oil?

The Farm Column

The Northeast has a problem. It is the largest feed deficit region in the country, buying some 12 million tons of feed concentrate annually, mostly from the Mid-West. When dairy prices fall, the dairy farmers of the Northeast have to take the cost of feed right out of their profits. In the old days, at least Midwestern feed farmers were an isolated lot, so their prices were not sensitive to increases in world demand. That is no longer true. So now there is a push to improve fodder yields in the Northeast. Fertiliser, cutting, and new grass crops are suggested, from trefoil to Reed canary to Ladino. Various farmers have reacted to these ideas conservatively. John B. Abbott of Bellows Falls, Vermont, and Roe McDonald of North Haverhill, New Hampshire, haven’t, and that is why they have doubled their milk production per cow from 5,499lbs/year in 1920 to 10,020 on average in 1941—44. Forty-six Brigham cows have produced 2000lb of butter fat in a year for four consecutive years.  In “The 4% Crop,” Ladd Haystead looks at the precarious business of potato farming, where a 4% difference in production makes the difference between profit and loss. Highly perishable in all but the coldest climates, potatoes have a maddeningly high rate of spoilage when the farmer has to hold his crop back from market due to a surplus. This is why the potato starch industry is a boon to the farmer. He is also impressed with a recent experiment with Alabama beef cows finished in Indiana, which might represent the thin edge of the wedge of Southern competition with Western farmers.

Books and Ideas

David J. Dallin’s new book, The Big Three, sees a tacit Anglo-American alliance to block Russia from rising to dominance.  Because it is communist, you know. Dallin is an émigré, so we must take his low opinion of Russian communism extra-seriously. The paper thinks he is exaggerating a bit. The Russians may have a large army, but it has no trucks. And while he sees a confrontation of sea versus land power, he makes no mention of air power.

D. W. Brogan, The Free State Mr. Brogan thinks that free countries are better than totalitarian dictatorships.

Sir Wiliam Beveridge’s Price of Peace¸ Charles Beard’s Economic Basis of Politics, and Chih Tsang’s China’sPostwar Markets are also out. The latter book is pessimistic, since it points out that China will have to run a trade deficit, which would be best financed as aid. This does not leave a lot of room for China to import large numbers of Nash cars!

Nash's engine-testing shop, which is shown here, opened up after being mothballed from 1941--45. Kind of amazing,, when you think about it.

Business Abroad

Many Berlin factories are still working, so the bombers will have to try harder, next time. Crop failures are a problem around the world, incredible as this is after the overproduction of the 1930s. Although the North American harvests are solid, there is trouble in the Southern Hemisphere, and above all, in Europe. France, for example, managed to sow wheat on only 75% of the average prewar acreage, and the North African crop is 1,3 million tons, against 4.5m on average before the war. Italy’s harvest is 20% under last year’s unsatisfractory yield. Eastern Europe is even worse off, and Germany is a catastrophe due to the labour vanishing. The total continental deficit will hit 30 million tons, against the estimated 22.6 m carryover of the wheat producing countries. The food shortage is partly responsible for the coal shortage. Belgium, which put in the harshest fiscal reforms on liberation, is looked to to lead the way to renewed prosperity. No-one is balancing their budget, but Sweden might come closest, first, achieving it this year.

Fortune Survey

“U.S. Opinion of Russia” Progress is being made, but at this rate it’ll be a good five years or so before we’re ready to have a war with Russia.

Business at War

Sidney James Weinberg of Goldman, Sachs talks to the paper. He is a very conscientious director of many companies. The paper also meditates on American Celanese’s unusual profit-sharing plan and the recent anti-trust case in the alkali industry. 

...And as a little postscript, we now have Uncle George's telegram from Vancouver, where he tells us that he has laid plans for an infallible commando raid to whisk you off to the Campbell River house the moment your plane from Ottawa, of which no-one has told us, touches down! He suspects that you will do nothing in Campbell River except sleep, but says that the rain is good for that; and if you want to sleep in Santa Clara, we will have a bed for you instead of a welcome! Although no rain, either way. As I do not know when you fly, I am dispatching this letter to you in London, anyway. It may end up following you around the world for a bit, though.