From Nyrath's Atomic Rockets site. Best webpage ever! |
R_. C_. (Group Captain, RCAFVR, Ret.),
The Athenaeum,
London, U.K.
Dear Father:
Please accept everyone here's congratulations on taking the bull by the horns and tendering your resignation. I had the feeling that with all the atomic fever these days, you might have been held in limbo for as long as you chose to delay your decision, and you are needed far more in Vancouver than in endless meetings, trying to peer in through the clouds that hide the future of our new atomic age.
You will be glad to know that I am out of hospital and fully ambulatory, although I shall not be able to ride until after surgery and rehabilitation, which Doctor Rivers has me down for in December. And that is probably as much as you, a man, wants to know! I have been introducing the twins to their baby sister, who was in such a hurry to see the world, and making their acquaintance again. Thank Heavens for Fanny and Judith!
Thank Heavens, too, for Uncle Henry, who visited me repeatedly in hospital. Ironically, he could not see me during my time in Permante, Oakland, although I was in no shape to entertain visitors! Still, he is enormously pleased at the work done by his hospital, and has been working up a speech on the importance of health and highways in the postwar world. Ideally, he needs a few more alliterating desireables for his "Post-War Four Points," but Permanente and an American autobahn are a good start. Now if only I can persuade him to leave the Satsuma money where it is. The last thing anyone needs to hear is of Japanese investors in Frazer-Nash.
As for our business here, Miss v. Q., your correspondent of the last month, has at last made her much-talked of journey to Virginia, to gingerly feel out just what kind of work might be available for a polyglot of her talents in the new work of no-more-Pearl-Harbours. It was very much a rush, as she had to be back in town for the beginning of classes, so she will be return in December, hopefully this time as a married woman, for Fat Chow is now expected at the end of the month. Your youngest practically flew over us in his haste to reach MIT and "real engineering" classes, with so little time in San Francisco on the layover that we ended up sending "Miss V.C." out with a care package. She has since been amusing us with unladylike improvisations of a chant which begins "Rooty-toot, rooty-toot, we are the girls [lads] of the Institute. . . "
Speaking of "Miss V.C." she is now fully roped into Lieutenant A_.'s round of San Francisco visits around the Gold Coast. As he is perhaps not the most charming of spokesmen for this oh-so-sensitive business, our old friend, the Engineer's natural son, is in for the ride as well. (Actually, he is charming enough, if he can avoid making a bad impression by breaking an antique vase. Just ask your cousin about that, as any excuse to talk about it. . . ) This makes "Miss V.C." all the more important. Not only does she have working tyres on her car, but she is the only one of the three who is actually attending the university! To the extent that the mortgage holders are at all motivated by the Governor's oh-so-noble goal of educating the youth of California with ill-got British investors' money, perhaps a representative of the new generation will help.
If, on the other hand, it is a matter of the interest rate which the university can afford to pay on the instruments, probably not. I hear that the Trustees are increasingly focussed on the paper held by this general in Berlin. It's the Harriman stake, and might be enough to cover the university's needs, with stringent economy. Will "Miss V_.C_." might soon be taking her European grand tour under the most unusual circumstances?
The thought of "Miss V.C." having a Berlin adventure is, almost, enough to make me hope for the success of the project. After all, if exchange controls are maintained in Britain, we shall not need to take up another line of work to keep the Earl and his friends in sorts, after all.
The
Economist, 1 September 1945
Leaders
“Dollar Crisis” As of last Friday,
the United Kingdom was spending £2000 million a year outside the sterling area,
and selling £350 million in exports to them. That’s why it does not have the
dollars to buy American wheat, oil, nylon stockings and Frank Sinatra records.
An American credit at 30 years, 2 3/8 interest is proposed, but this seems to
dear to the paper, which suggests taking the smallest possible loan at the best
possible terms at the expense of the most hardship possible. More exports, more
privation, faster demobilisation, less foreign involvement, and lower prices
for our exports, hence full technical efficiency. Possibly also continuing
exchange controls. Which would be a boon to us, so let us see.
“Second Battle of Europe” The last
battle of Europe was a war. This is a war, too –against starvation! The Unrra
needs more resources, more manpower and of course full administrative
efficiency. Otherwise, there might be social collapse in Europe this winter.
“Releasing the Surplusses” There are
some surpluses of things which might be released for public consumption in
Britain this winter, to make up for all the things the British do not have. The
picture is unclear, and the paper helps by releasing a cloud of words on
various subjects such as whether machine tools are included, or whether village
shops might get a share of any surplus of things which might be sold through
village shops. And on and on.
“Balkan Governments” The Balkans are
excitable. And increasingly communistic.
Notes
of the Week
Japan has surrendered officially.
The Japanese, as Orientals, are inscrutable. For example, they seem more
pleased than disappointed by the end of the war. It’s almost as though they
were losing it. Though the wily Japanese might just be feigning.
“Russo-Chinese Pact” The published
pact is deemed surprisingly favourable to the Chinese, and it is supposed that
the Communist cause is thus collapsing, and that Yenan will shortly give up.
“The Rate of Release” The Government
is BUNGLING demobilisation. BUNGLING, the paper says.
“Post-War Forces” The only part of
this which can be excused is that the forces are uncertain about what they will
need after the war. The paper suggests a 750,000 target, down from 5 million at
the end of hostilities in Europe.
“Bomber Harris” Air Chief Marshal Harris has retired. The paper says good riddance to bad rubbish, as apparently
strategic bombing did not work.
“Fathers and Sons” Now that the
election is more than a month past, it is time to speculate on huge
realignments within the traditional parties. Left wing Conservatives, right
wing Labourites, and who knows what will happen in the very near future, except
that it will be very exciting. But not excitable. See also, “The Charter
Debated,” the inter-party talks on
parliamentary reform, the Transitional Powers Act, and talks about a Nordic Union.
“Shanghai and Hong Kong” Shanghai
has been liberated by Chinese troops, and that is all right, as it is almost a
Chinese city. The same, of course,
cannot and will not be allowed to happen to Hong Kong. And speaking of obstreperous
wartime allies, de Gaulle is in Washington doing French things. Australians are
also out and about, afraid of being “cold-shouldered” by the powers, but might
not count as obstreperous. Well, Australians are always obstreperous, so there is a double standard? No, the French are obstreperous, too. But as they are foreigners, it is to be expected? Nigerians, not being allowed to be obstreperous, as they are colonials, so they are
striking, instead. They cannot be given way to, lest inflation strike.
“The Morris Report” House prices are
up 60% over 1939 in London, 127% in Wales over the last two years. It is
suggested that sale price be controlled for the next five years to prevent
further run-ups.
“Labour for Building” A postwar
target of 1.25 million has been accepted, against a prewar 1 million. As at
present the total is only 600,000, up from a March 1945 low of 337,000, there
is a long way to go. The paper goes on to repeat its concern that in the vast
and distant future when Britain is cutting the prices of all of our exports to
compete with Albania and Norway, this will be too many, and the industry will
be overstaffed and overtrained, and it will be a disaster. Hence we should have
the right kind of training, in “civil engineering,”as opposed to
“construction,” right now.
American
Survey
“Confidence” (From Our Washington
Correspondent) Uncle Henry wrote a guest column for Drew
Pearson on the subject of free enterprise, open markets, no rationing, fewer
controls, etc. After his visits, I could have written it myself. A “four-point post-war programme . . . of homes, health,
highways and transportation.” Have I mentioned how please he is with his hospitals? I'm sure I have. He glowed! Although that is to be expected of Uncle Henry, at least at times. . . James A. Farley, of the New York City Committee
for Economic Development, estimates a quarter million more jobs in the city
than before the war. The Washington Post covers
six veterans who have joined together to create a new business, “Reproducers,
Incorporated,” which is interested in all the various new ways of making
business records. A sobering note is the Bureau of the Census’s report on the
labour force, which is at 52.66 million, 600,000 more than in June, but which,
without seasonal adjustment, would be 400,000 less, an early pointer to the
rise in unemployment everyone is expecting. Willow Run is closed, the Saturday Evening Post points out, and
24,000 are on the unemployment lines. Leon Henderson warns that if the fight
against inflation isn’t won, the war savings will be lost with it.
One way of looking at this ad is that it is a War Loans advertisement. The other is that I liked the image. |
American
Notes
The abrupt termination of Lend-Lease is considered perfectly appropriate by Americans, and even the six billion tiding-over grant is controversial, with some Americans upset that they are giving money to socialists. Reconversion is deemed “uncontrolled” heading into Christmas. American conservatives are pleased by all this liberty, while British observers think Americans are soft and spoiled by all the unrationed gas and meat. Unemployment may be expected, and Republicans are setting their sights on major gains in the 1946 Congressional elections if it is serious and protracted.
The
Business World
“Short Commons for Livestock” The
herd in Europe and Britain is in decline, and this is largely due to the
decline in feed grain. Argentina, Canada and the Danubian countries are
traditionally the major suppliers, and the failure of the 1943 Argentina corn
crop did not help. This year’s estimate is for only 2.9 million tons, against
an average of 7.5 million in 1939—44. America, on balance a feed grain
importer, has its maize crop down from 82 to 71.1 million. Barley is down to
5.9 from 6.2. Canada, overwhelmingly the major supplier to both Britain and the
United States, has seen a modest increase of barley 185,000 to 416,000; oats,
100,000 to 879,000. This is very small compared with the increase in the
Argentinian corn crop, and must be maintained. This leaves the DAnubian
countries on the one hand, and oilcake on the other. The paper has an estimate
for oilcake imports (2.7 million tons for Britain; 3 million for western
Europe, but not of exports from
exporting countries. So in the near term we can expect the pressure of feeding
the human population to lead to a further decline in herd populations and more
meat and dairy shortages.
“The Organisation of Dock Labour”:
Will there be a strike on the London docks, and, if so, whose fault will it be?
Yes, is the answer to the first, and no-one cares but the paper and the
politicians to the second. At least the
paper is willing to concede that shortage of dock workers is an argument for higher
wages. Now what about coal miners?
On the other hand, wages are falling because there is less overtime, so workers' reaction is going to be a bit ambiguous. Overtime tends to lose its appeal after a while. |
Business
Notes
“US Coal For Europe” America is
currently committed to sending six million tons of coal to Europe per month
contingent on transportation being available. The end of the Pacific War
releases transportation, and the end of Army contracts is expected to relieve a
deficit of 25 million tons/year in American domestic supply. This may allow an
increase in American exports to Europe to 8 million/month. Also, more fuel oil
will be sent. Britain is sending 200,000t/month, and together with the fuel oil,
this will meat minimum European requirements. European production is
recovering, but not rapidly, and the same problems of lack of investment and of
labour are in play.
Finance news includes the failure of
the City to collapse in the face of Labour rule, a scheme to reorganise
Alberta’s public debt, and a rise in French share values. Not strictly
financial is news of rapidly increasing American productivity per man hour in
many industries, but notably coal mining, where is has declined in Britain, and
in steel and textiles, in which Britain and America compete. Also, ice-cream
making, because it is “amusing.”
“Currency Chaos in the East” The
catastrophic Chinese inflation is surely worth a paragraph or two. Unrelated,surely, is news of Southeast Asia Command’s rapid intervention in Malaya to
ensure tin and rubber exports to the United States, which is key to salvaging
the sterling area, however much or little actual Malayans want nylon stockings
and Frank Sinatra records. A hydroelectric scheme is going ahead in Scotland,
International Tea has record profits, diamonds have prospects, and there is
another short bit about edible oil and oilseed imports into Britain. Palm
kernels, ground nuts and cocoa are up, copra and butter have been down, lard is
up.
Flight,
6 September 1945
Leaders
“The Sun That Has Set” Japan has
surrendered. Aircraft were involved, and also a battleship.
“End of Censorship” But not really,
because the paper still has to keep everything readers are actually interested
in secret, until everyone already knows.
The actual illustration on this page doesn't mention that Meteors were flying in action over southern England in broad daylight before they were taken off the Secret List, but it might as well have. |
“Jungle Maintenance: Sisyphus Task
of RAF Ground Crews in Burma: Working in 150 deg F. Inside Aircraft: Abnormal
Expansion in Heat: Corrosion Overnight in Monsoon” “Heat stroke and exhaustion
killed a fair number of these ground crews.” That is . . . dreadful. Men got
second-degree burns from touching tools. The temperatures inside aircraft
reached 155 degrees. Guns fired spontaneously from ammunition “cooking off.” In
the hot part of the year, crews started work at dawn and tried to knock off
from noon to 4, but this was not often possible. Wooden and fabric structures
gave the most trouble. Cyclones were a problem.
“Bomber Harris Retires: Famous Chief
Leaving Service: Deputy Chief of Staff Takes Over” That is, Air Marshal Sir Norman Bottomley. I wonder. Were Englishmen with these really silly names not
permitted to emigrate to America, just to avoid embarrassment? Sorry. Anyway,
at least the paper avoids The Economist tone.
I’m just surprised that The Economist didn’t
contrive to blame Harris for wrecking the German coal and steel industries at
the same time that it blamed him for wasting resources in a futile bombing
campaign.
Here
and There
Canada’s aircraft industry is much
expanded by the war, while the USAAF is to be cut from 2.15 million men and
65,000 aircraft to 600,000 men and 8,000 aircraft. Hawker Siddeley is
nominating three members to the Board of Directors of High Duty Alloys. A neat
picture shows the P-80 in a test flight, with wool tufts glued to its wings to
track airflow. A Bell P-59 is to be
donated to the Smithsonian Museum, now that it is three years old, and an
antique. At least 30,000 Australian aircraft workers are to be discharged. Talks
on Air Geography are scheduled on the BBC Light.
A shuttle service through
Casablanca is carrying American servicemen home, with the planes flying French
refugees back to France on the return leg. More than 8000 have already gone.
The end of the war with Japan means the winding up of the rest of the Empire
air training scheme in Canada. Meanwhile, the Empie Air Navigation School has
been reopened at Shrewsbury.
“The Warnborough Accident” It turns
out that one of the many British physicists on Miss v. Q.’s watch-list was
killed in this accident, flying at night in a Mosquito while testing a “secretdevice.” The accident was caused by “adverse characteristics developing in the
experimental equipment.” The injured pilot was thrown free of the wreck awake,
and able to pull his parachute.
“Safety Fuels: Standard Oil and Pan
American Plan Refuelling in the Air” Pan American and Standard Oil have been
researching a safe, high-octane fuel since 1932. It is ready for distribution
in the United States through Intava, and may be used for in-air refuelling.
“RNZAF in the Pacific: Oxfords and
Harvards as Operational Types: Changeover to Ameerican Types for Final Stages”
New Zealand had Empire Air Training Scheme bases, and when the Pacific war
broke out, used its Hudsons to look for Japanese, fortunately without finding
any. Oxfords and Harvards were modified as bombers in case the Japanese
invaded, and from the summer of 1942 increasing numbers of New Zealand
squadrons used reasonably modern American planes against the Japanese.
“The Mathis 42E 00” This is the
latest news of the French six-bank In-line engine giving 4,000-5,000hp that
no-one is ever going to buy. Although spark plug manufacturers are certainly going to want to
see a 4-Mathis airliner with its 168 cylinders!
“Stratovision” It has been a week
since the last article about the Westinghouse-Martin plan to cover the entire
United States with television-relaying planes flying at 30,000ft, so here is
another one. The required plane sounds like quite the technical triumph.
B. J. Hurren, “Clear Upper Deck: New
14,000-ton Light Fleet Carriers: Development of Aircraft Carriers from Original
Conversions” A picture of light fleet carrier HMS Vengeance, and an unidentified sister ship shows that the Royal
Navy has a great many of these ships. (Seven names have been announced.) We are
told that they have a top speed of 25 knots and a capacity of 33 aircraft,
about the same as the previous “Large Fleet carriers,” the ones with the
armoured decks. They have more space, 695ft flight decks, and no obstructing AA
guns.
C. B. Bailey-Watson, “Bomber’s
Radar: General Survey of the Three Primary Systems Used by bomber Command” The
systems are GEE, OBOE, and H2S; so, in short, two radio beacon navigational
aids and the 10cm “navigational,” or ground-imaging radar. All three use
cathode ray tube displays, which is a lot of CRTs for one aircraft, bssides of
course all the vacuum tubes. Uncle George may take his victory lap, now.
“Disposing of the Luftwaffe’s Bombs” We’re blowing them up
in great masses. It seems awfully wasteful, but I suppose that it is the only
way.
A. V. Cleaver, “Bombers or Rockets:
Some Further Thoughts Prompted by the Atomic Bomb: Enormous Possibilities of Atomic
Drive for Rockets” Now that we know
about atomic bombs, doesn’t Robertson’s argument about the need for aircraft
bombers for sustained bombing campaigns seem silly? What is more, if we could
just use atomic propulsion, the range limit on rockets would be eliminated! The
only answer would be radar-guided defensive missiles, which would ram into the
attacking missiles “high in the atmosphere or beyond.” Although if we actually
fought such a war, “it would preclude the survival of much of the civilisation
which allowed it to begin.” A tiny little atomic bomb-propelled rocket would be
many times more efficient than a conventional rocket, perhaps 400 times. We do
not, however, know exactly how such a rocket would work. Perhaps through direct
radiation pressure –the little atomic bomb model—but also perhaps through a
stream of sub-atomic particles in a reaction jet, or perhaps by heating a
working fluid. Once we have such rockets, it would be no great matter to escape
the Earth’s gravity and reach the planets, unlike with conventional rockets,
where the energy requirements are daunting. “The release of atomic energy will
make interplanetary travel not only possible but imperative,” Mr. Cleaver quotes
a friend of his (Fl./Lt. A. C. Clarke), who is apparently some kind of expert.
Civil
Aviation
“Ease of Handling: Planned Freight
Loading: Efficient Equipment” The title makes it a little less than clear, but
this is an article about how efficient the Martin Mars will be when it is used
in the US Navy’s trans-Pacific air transport service. There is even an artist’s
impression!
Artist's Impression |
Civil
Aviation News
New air services, now including a
French trans-Atlantic service via Newfoundland, perhaps an American Tokyo
connection, and Chinese plans.
Correspondence
R. Swingler, B.Sc., gives “a
Stressman’s brief explanation” of centrifugal force. Douglas Deans discusses
radio for light aircraft, while several writers discuss the sad fate of the
Observer Corps in this modern day of radar and rockets.
The
Economist, 8 September 1945
“A Policy for the Ruhr” The Great
Powers cannot compress some sixty million Germans into a territory little
larger than Britain and then deindustrialise it. If they are to compress, and
there is no sign of a letup in the expulsions of Germans in the east, then
industrialisation is the only way forward. France therefore wants to internationalise
the Ruhr so it can get to work shorn of any aggressive tendencies. The paper’s
preferred solution seems to be for all the Powers to stick their oars in, with
just the right administrative structure to bring about all good things in the
fullness of time.
“Inflation –Or Self Control” Britons
should keep on saving, lest inflation break out at the least thought of
splurging on this or that. In particular, the accumulated £575 million in
postwar income tax credits cannot be released yet, no matter how much workers
hit by the end of overtime might want them.
“New Start in the Middle East?” A
new approach which will certainly lead to
a bright new era in the Middle East under British direction. It could
even be another India!
Notes
of the Week
“Orderly Chaos” Demobilisation is
being BUNGLED!
“Lend-Lease” The Government seemed
as though it was not being serious about the end-of-Lend-Lease negotiations
because Lord Keynes sailed across the Atlantic instead of flying, but now it
seems that delay was a masterstroke, because American opinion is advancing towards the advanced opinion that they should just write Lend-Lease off.
“Japanese Stock-Taking” Japan is to
have party politics again, with a united social democratic party and a
business-based conservative answer. They are also afraid of the Communists, who
have advanced into south Sakhalin and Korea. No mention this week on the drive
to advance Japanese science, though.
Downtown Yuzhno, Sakhalin. Japanese cars, anyway. |
Moroccans, Persians, Indo-Chinese,
Greeks, the Trade Union Congress, feminist career women and French leftists are
excitable. British intervention in the Greek situation is mooted.
“The Miner’s Role” The paper
welcomes the miners’ effort to improve productivity, and notes the controversy
over whether to extend daylight savings time to save coal, at the expense of
the farmers.
“Temporary Houses” Are temporary
houses too expensive? It might well be, but the real problem in housing policy
is that housing ministers do not talk about housing policy enough. Everyone
should talk more. Preferably writing everything down in small print on thin paper, to reduce imports.
Correspondence
A full page of letters. The Chairman
of the Cotton and Rayon Merchants’ Association and the Secretary of the Retail
Distributers’ Association write on matters dear to their heart, while J. H.
Lidderdale writes on the advantages or not of cyclotractors. The paper explains
that a 3 ton lorry can move 80,000 tons per year for every ton of its own
weight, while a locomotive can move 200,000 and a “rail cyclotractor” 800,000.
American
Survey
The final report on culpability for
Pearl Harbour is out this week. The paper thinks it will help the cause of “those” trying to reorganise American
military intelligence into a united service.
A Piggly-Wiggly man! |
“Payments in Kind” Americans
continue to struggle with the idea of how Allies are to “repay” Lend-Lease
without American dollar earnings.
“The War is Not Yet Over” America is
BUNGLING demobilisation.
The boys are in a hurry to get back. |
Also, the OWI has been disbanded, the
end of food rationing is reducing American surpluses, and there is actually
some agreement in America for relative deprivation there to feed the hungry of
Europe. Uncle Henry is manoeuvring to take control of the Geneva plant, has
interested himself in “mobile homes,” and, of course, in Willow Run. This is
taken as “Kaiser Reconverting.”He is also talking about making cars on the
Pacific Slope to sell to Asian markets, which Detroit thinks is crazy, but
something has to be done about layoffs in the shipyards. Says the paper. Given the labour shortage, it seems like this would take care of itself.
The
World Overseas
There is discussion on how to supply
relief to Jugoslavia, which has starving people, but also Communists who are
not Russians. Starvation is likely in some parts due to a poor harvest due to
poor sowing last year, the devastation of war, and decline in livestock
population. Also, there is not nearly enough transport to move relief supplies.
“German Farming in the British Zone”
Up to the end of the war, agriculture was very productive in Germany due to the
favourable Kriegskonjunctur of
abundant labour, fertiliser and high prices. This can be seen, for example, in
livestock numbers, where although there was a steep decline in pigs, the cow
population was actually up at the beginning of 1944, from 3 to 3.1 million,
although the size of Germany had, of course, changed. The decline since then,
to 2.3 million, was in part caused by war, but mostly by mass slaughter to feed
displaced populations. The contrast with horses, from 1 to 1.4 million due to
the release of army horses, is spectacular. Various harvests are down, and
there is a cumulative deficit of 2,000,000 tons of grain in the British zone,
although this is a dietary deficit, not one of absolute need, so that herring
and fish can be substituted as well as American grain.
“Reconversion in Canada” (From our
Ottawa Correspondent) Given demand, the Canadian government thinks that there
is no reason why there should be significant unemployment postwar in Canada.
Swedes are excitable. And short of
coal and coke.
The
Business World
“Empire Partnership in Wool” Uncle
George has repeatedly said that we need to get out of sheep. The sterling
area’s determination to export everything it can into the dollar area just
makes this more pressing. Our Chicago relations are grumbling, but, frankly,
there’s no more future in canning mutton than in selling wool.
“Ruhr Coal” The coal famine is the
most disastrous famine facing Europe, and Ruhr hard coal is the only available
supply to meet British and American sector needs. In 1939, the average daily
output was 418,000 tons, and employment was
315,000. The next three years saw a steady rise in numbers employed, and
a steady decline in output, to 390,000 tons and 385,000 employees in 1942. This
was due to the conscription of younger miners into the armed forces and wear on
mining equipment, while German miners were transferred to more congenial kinds
of work and replaced in underground mining and from coal getting to haulage by
foreign workers, who were less productive. In 1943, output fell from 390 to
342. In the first nine months of 1944 it was up significantly, but then
collapsed, so that in January of 1945, monthly output was 5,775,251 million
tons, and employment was 375,150, including 218,000 Germans. After four months
of Allied occupation, employment has risen to 261,000, although at 1000,000
underground to 60,000 surface, the proportion is “abnormal.” Monthly output was
1.6 million tons, so productivity is very low, and actual saleable coal after
mine use, coking, and briquette making is negligible, 675,000 tons in July.
Conscription may be needed to bring 100,000 into the mines, and while “the
healthiest workers” are getting 3200 calories/day, their familes are getting
only 1000, and miners are absenting themselves to look for food for their
families. House repair is another cause of absenteeism, which has reached
25—30%. One quarter of capacity has been knocked out by enemy action, but can
be brought back quickly enough with repairs. Supplies from pitprops to rope to
water softeners and miners’ clothes are short. So are building supplies to
repair houses, lest cold add to malnutrition in cutting productivity. A quarter
million roof tiles are needed, for example.
Business
Notes
The pound is falling against the
dollar, but this does not mean that there is a case for a change in theexchange rate. The market is rallying, stocks of sugar will be higher in 1946,
many British civilian service industries are dangerously short of labour, and
the average weekly earnings of British workers began to decline in July 1944,
and is still falling, mainly due to less overtime.
The
Economist, 15 September 1945
“Recipe for Reconstruction” Sir
Stafford Cripps lays out the government’s plan to reconstruct the cotton
industry, which will hopefully be a model for the future.
“A Treaty for Italy” The Powers are
ready to sign a peace treaty with Italy. The paper thinks that Italy should not
pay reparations, should lose the Dodecanese to Greece, Libya to a British
Mandate leading to self-government by the Senussis. Tripoli, Eritrea and
perhaps Italian Somaliland should go back to Italy under a United Nations
mandate.
“A National Map Service” Would be a
good thing, the paper explains at three page length. It would be better than
the existing arrangement, which involves the Royal Engineers for some reason?
“Report on Spain” The paper’s
Correspondent finds fascists everywhere., Perhaps he should point them out to
the Spanish government? There are both bad and good things about this, and one
of the bad things is power outages and poverty. Perhaps the Army will stage a
democratic coup against Franco? That might well be a good thing!
Notes
of the Week
“UNO and the Atom Bomb”
International control of the atom bomb is debated.
“Demobilisation” The TUC thinks that
the Government is BUNGLING demobilisation. The TUC, General de Gaulle, and
French leftists are excitable in other ways, too.
“Mass Expulsions in Eastern Europe”
Some 9 million Germans are expected to be expelled from Czechslovakia and
post-war-border Poland. This forced mass migration is an appalling human
tragedy and the paper would like the Council of Foreign Ministers to speak
firmly to someone and put a stop to it.
“The Liberal Dilemma” Is that hardly
anyone wants to vote for it, which is a real problem considering that the paper
wants them to vote for it. Clearly the solution is to get a new British electorate.
“The Price of Progress” In a speech
to the Labour Women, Mr. Morrison says that British industry must have higher
productivity, and the key price here is £1000 million spent on re-equipment.
The paper applauds, but calls on the minister to be frank and admit that this
means £1000 million not spent on consumption. The paper volunteers to lead the way by taking fewer cold baths than it does already.
“Far Eastern ‘Vaudeville’ In
Disguise” Pravda thinks that Japan’s
postwar reforms are mere vaudeville. The paper has finally realised that it can
have bleak opinions about Japan’s future now, and catches up on lost time by
predicting (perhaps) starvation, 25% unemployment, followed by social
collapse.
“A Government for Korea” The United
Nations has declared for Korean independence, but now a government must be
found. There is, in fact, a Korean government in exile, supported by Chungking, and has
been since 1919, but no-one cares about that.
The problem is that there are Communists, too.
“Myth in the Making” It is suggested
that trying German war criminals will, in the future, create a myth which
future German aggressors will exploit. The paper thinks that we should have just, I don't know, shot all the Nazis, or something, and that this would have made future Germans much happier.
“Canadian Mutual Aid” Canada will
not expect repayment, which is nice.
“Raising Coal Output” Will
nationalisation help? Maybe, and maybe not.
“Service of Youth” There need to be
more youth services, or possibly fewer, or different. I’d have to actually read
the article to know.
American
Survey
“The Problems of Business” This is
by Our New York Correspondent, so I am sure that the problems will prove to be
intractable and mortal, and the only thing for it is to stick one’s head in the
oven before the growing cancer leaves us incapable of doing it for ourselves.
Well –on to the actual article!
Businessmen are in a maze, because the future is unclear. Perhaps commodities
will go up. Perhaps they will go down. Unemployment will go up, or down.
Interest rates may rise slowly, or rapidly, or stay the same, or fall. Stocks
may rise, or fall. Well! And at the end of the maze (do mazes have ends?) is a
horrible monster made in equal parts of World Chaos, Depression, New Deal and
Socialism. It breathes fire, too. And then something about black sails? I think this is some kind of play on Greek mythology.
“President and Congress” The
President’s Message to Congress was very long. So is this article. There is
disagreement about the length of Federal unemployment benefits. Public works,
including a vast new highway system and Tennessee Valley Authority style
developments in the Columbia, Arkansas, Missouri and Central Valley are
proposed. A 50,000 man draft is proposed for next year. Congress, which is
conservative due to a coalition of southern Democrats and Republicans, is
hostile.
American
Notes
“The Pleasant Predicament” is back.
But how will it be possible, what with inflation? American business looks for
Far Eastern markets.
The
Business World
“Ruhr Steel” As with coal, about 30%
of capacity in northwestern Germany has been destroyed by enemy action, and
another 20% put out of service, with the balance of the loss of production due
to other factors such as labour and transportation.
There is also as length discussion
of changes in the law concerning corporate directors, something to which we all
shall have to pay attention.
Business
Notes
“A Large US Merchant Navy”
Vice-Admiral Land continues to think that a large part of the American wartimefleet should be kept in service, 17 million of 45 million, representingtwo-thirds of prewar merchant tonnage, with 20 million put up in reserve and 8million sold to other countries. The paper is underwhelmed, as importing
shipping services is another way to balance the dollar exchange.
An agreement has been reached on
Anglo-Dutch currency exchange, and the franc might be devalued.
Investments in Argentinian and Catalonian rail are discussed. British agriculture
is “in transition.” The paper is fine
with it right now, but thinks it needs to transition away, later, when it will be 1846 again. There is a labour
shortage in many industries, and the paper allows that the fact that they don’t
pay very well probably has something to do with it. Sir Stafford Cripps warns
that exports must take precedence over home consumption.
“The Redistribution of Incomes” Mr.Tibor Barna’s Bowley Prize-winning essay, “The Redistribution of Incomes
Through Public Finance in 1937” has now been published, the paper tells us. So
this is News! It turns out that taking from the rich and giving to the poor
makes the poor richer, and the rich, poorer.
“American Cotton Policy” Is to hold
the amount of acreage in production under 20 million, and if this is continued,
the American surplus will be gone in 3 years, without need for forced exports,
and the rest of the world can get a look into the market.
Flight,
13 September 1945
Leaders
This number arrived in America
without cover and front page, but the lead leader seems to be about railways
and civil aviation.
“The Battle of Britain” We are
having an anniversary, and celebrating the fastest ever crossing of the
Atlantic –by a reconnaissance Mosquito, and not a Douglas A-26, if you were wondering.
Ernest P. Brodie, “What the Private
Owner Does Want” Higher prices and more demand for wood pulp for papermaking?
Here
and There
Air Marshal Harris has gone to South
Africa on vacation, or some such. The current issue of Flying mentions the Consolidated P4Y Corregidor, Grumman F8F Bearcat, Northrop XP-56, a magnesium flying wing, now in production, and the
C-70, which is not a previously unknown American type, but a Ju-52 in American
markings.
Consolidated XP4Y Corregidor |
Curtiss XF15C, actually mentioned elsewhere, and not a rocket plane. |
A B-29 has set a new nonstop Honolulu-Washington record of 17 hours. I
wouldn’t want to be the 9 O’clock of the admiral arriving from Honolulu after a
17 hour non-stop in a B-29!
“Liquidating the Luftwaffe” The RAF
is blowing up, disassembling, and whatnot.
“German Jet Rivalry: More Details of
existing and Projected Turbine-Jet Units and Aircraft” The rivalry was between
Heinkel, Jumo and BMW. The former began research into jets, but could not get
permission to branch out into jet engine production, leaving Jumo and BMW to
continue their rivalry. Since the Germans
began work on the axial-engine path, their engines quickly became quite
elaborate. An eight-compressor unit was under development, but held back by a
shortage of critical materials. The Ju 287 was the heaviest jet bomber in
development, but there seems to be some confusion as to whether the
actually-existing Ju 287 in this month’s Aviation
is the one that Junkers proposed, which would have had forward-swept wings.
“The Kaiser-Hughes Hercules” Another
article on Uncle Henry’s giant plane credits him ahead of Mr. Hughes, so that’s
nice. It’s also apt, in that it’s no more likely to be built than Uncle Henry’s west-coast steel making-auto-building conglomerate.
“The Decca Navigator: New and
Revolutionary System for Instantaneous and Accurate Position Indicator” This is
a more elaborate version of a radio beacon system, built by the famous
record-player and radio maker. Obviously the ground stations are built by
someone else entirely.
"Decca Navigator Mk 12". Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Decca_Navigator_Mk_12.jpg#/media/File:Decca_Navigator_Mk_12.jpg |
P. Umpleby, “Deflect-Reaction Propulsion:
Some Theoretical Considerations of an
Unorthodox Method of Increasing Jet Efficiency” by bending the tube through
which the reaction jet flows, various effects can be achieved. Most seem like
they would be more efficient at braking the aircraft than propelling it, but
that would be useful, too, wouldn’t it?
N. D. Ryder, “Keeping Watch on
Jerry: how the Photo. Recce. Squadrons Went to Work: Secrets of Medmenham’s
Cellars: Aircraft and Equipment” Well. Here are your lads. At least before you
were diverted to searching out radars and beacons, and then to hunting for
radio-active atoms floating about in the atmosphere.
Civil
Aviation
“Iceland Airways: Modest Beginnings:
Operational Conditions: Future Prospects” Iceland is cold, northerly, isolated,
and has poor internal communications, a perfect set-up for a small airline
flying cheap, small planes in the summer. In the future, it is hoped to fly
wealthy Englishmen out to enjoy the “winter sports season,” because there is
nothing like casting for salmon in Iceland in February. Although flying into Iceland in February is probably close.
Correspondence
Roy Fedden writes to point out that
a friend of his, Mr. W. J. Stern, did quite a nice paper on jet turbines for
the Air Ministry back in 1920, and his contribution seems to have beenoverlooked. Speaking of neglect and being overlooked. H. E. Carroll writes to
suggest that the paper slighted his efforts on aerial parachute mines, which
were held back by Air Ministry inertia. The paper replies that it did nothing
of the kind. It just reprinted an Air Ministry news bulletin. F. A. de V.
Robertson writes on the question of bombers versus rockets to ask if atomic
bombs were “necessary?” The point here
is that perhaps Japan might have surrendered without them, although I am not
sure how this applies to the “bomber versus rocket” argument in any way
whatsoever.
Aviation,
September 1945
Line
Editorial
James H. McGraw, Junior, “A Tide in
the Affairs of Men” “On 6 August 1945, an atomic bomb exploded over the
Japanese city, Hiroshima.” Junior reminds us that it has been only 50 years
since the Curies began to research “how the atoms of the universe are put
together.” It is a power capable of unravelling the very fabric of
civilization, and transcends national jurisdiction, and cannot long be the
monopoly of only one, or a small group of nations. With this in mind, the paper
has a number of articles explaining it in non-technical ways. They are very pretty and well-composed, and surely must have been sitting around the office for months.
Bombs, bombs and more bombs apart, there is an interesting
discussion on the possibilities of atomic power. This would take the form of a
steam plant –water would be circulated around an “atomic pile” of uranium
metal, which would be decomposed by flying neutrons into lighter metals plus
heat, which would go into the water . This is best done with uranium which has
been quite expensively treated, since it must be enriched by adding additional
U235 isotope mechanically separated from the inert U238 isotope.
It turns out that exactly this is
not what is happening at the Hanford military reservation. The point of the
reactor there is to create the artificial element, plutonium, which results
from some neutron impacts with uranium. Plutonium can be made to explode in the
same way as U235, and, being chemically different from uranium, is easy to
extract by chemical means. This makes it possible to manufacture atomic bombs
out of plutonium much more cheaply than from U235.
The very hot water this produces could be the feedwater for a steam plant. At Hanford, it is only used to keep the atomic “pile” from melting, and does not get hot enough for steam making. (It also seems to have some
importance for keeping the flying neutrons in line. Or perhaps I have it
confused with “heavy water.”)
Now, on the basic economics, turning
a Hanford style plutonium-producing reactor into a steam plant would just
require better plumbing, but it would be much better to “enrich”
the metal in the reactor by adding additional U235. Unfortunately, this adds greatly to the expense.
It gets more complicated in that the basic problem is one we haven't really dealt with before --those flying neutrons. To have a “chain reaction,” the neutronshave to be slowed down by a modeator. (Also, various of the
decomposition products of uranium fission “poison” the reaction, and one of these
products is the plutonium that we want, anyway.) A natural uranium pile can get hot enough to make steam, but it has to be enormous. Adding additional U235, as
is done at Hanford, reduces the size. Also, we can look at better plumbing. And, finally, the radiation produced by
the pile is quite dangerous, and must be guarded against.
This is nothing like an atomic bomb,
which must be capable of spontaneously supporting a very fast chain reaction.
This is only possible with a sufficient mass of very pure U235 or of plutonium,
perhaps between 1 and 100kg. It must also be concentrated into a small mass at
precisely the right moment, perhaps by some kind of
implosion-explosion-collision. For peaceful purposes, much lower concentrations
of U235 might be better, as well as cheaper.
Aviation
Editorial
Leslie E. Neville, “Split Elements
and Human Elements” We won the atomic race, but we must remember that we also
need airplanes to deliver atomic bombs, so the future of peace and civilisation
depends on both. Neville recalls how he pointed out the folly of atomic secrecy
in his October 1944 editorial, and, sure enough, it turns out that he did. So the
atomic bomb wasn’t really secret then, and the method of making it isn’t really
secret now –at least, the omitted details presumably can be worked out by the
scientists of other countries. Things must be done to greet the dawning of the
atomic age, etc.
Herb Powell, “The Atomic Frame of
Reference –Or Else” Atomic bombs are very dangerous. Just look at these
pictures of Hiroshima. In the near future, we will see V-1 or V-2 type weapons
carrying atomic bombs, and these will be more dangerous still. All countries
that want them will have them, and we must do –something.
H. C. Lawrence, Radio Corporation of
America, “War-Developed Radar Promises Swift Peacetime Progress” A very basic
explanation of how navigational radar works, of the radio altimeter, which isn’t
really radar, and LORAN, which isn’t, either. They are, however, going to be
important to civil aviation, no argument.
Technical Sergeant David Stick,
“Parapacks Kept ‘Em Punching” Apparently, supplies were dropped to forward
troops via parachutes!
Irving Stone, “Design Analysis of
the Fairchild C-82 Packet, Part II” The C-82 is a very important plane that wasn't built much and which no-one will buy.
Ralph H. Upson, “Designing
Tomorrow’s Personal Plane, Part IV” Upson discusses “pusher” configuration
planes and succeeds in explaining why no-one builds them.
P. E. Humphry, Aeronautics and
Marine Engineering Division, General Electrics, “Self-Contained Sub-Assemblies
Feature B-29 Gun Turret” The very compact and reliable turret uses four
subassemblies.
E. B. Sarreals, Industrial Analyst,
Kollman Instrument Division of Square D Co., “For Precision with Proft, Count
Those Costs” Various things lead to costs. Unless they are carefully accounted
for, you may sell your products at a loss! Here are things you can do, such as
carefully analyse input materials to treat them efficiently; season metals
subject to low temperatures carefully; quality control; operations analysis;
functional analysis of inspection; gage control. These are things which can be
done!
J. W. Kelly, Chief Engineer, Adel
Precision Products Corp, Adel “Towards Better Combination Controls” Adel
Hydronic controls are the bee’s knees!
C. F. Reusch, Chief of Materials and
Processes, and R. E. Green, Supervisor of Template Reproduction, Consolidated
Vultee Aircraft Corporation, “Production-Wise Technique Multiplies Template
Repro” Loft masters and templates are being produced at Convair’s new
reproduction department at mass-production speeds!
Look at how these templates and loft masters are processed to make the information available to other steps in the manufacturing process. Someone should come up with a misleadingly simple label for this and go on to build castles in the sky of it. Preferably ones that involve all the people who beat us up in high school being permanently unemployed and possibly murdered in death camps because they are terminally useless. |
M. G. Scherberg, “Putting Taxi Stability
Into Conventional Tail Gear” Steerable tail wheels are nice, if you can make
them practically. Here’s a way of doing that.
This month’s maintenance article
covers de-icers.
“Nipponese Navy’s Debut-at-Finale
Bombers” The paper covers the Aichi Ryusei 11 (Grace) and Mitsubishi 24 (Betty_.
“Consolidated Vultee B-32 in
Last-Round Action” The B-32 was allowed to drop some bombs there, at the end.
It is a much larger B-24 in many ways, but includes features such as the
Curtiss engine synchroniser. It is the first production plane with it as
standard equipment. The new management at Consolidated Vultee is also willing to admit that it has a "modified Davis wing." Which isn't very good news for Mr. Davis, considering.
“That Zipping Lockheed P-80” The
paper decides to have a good old fight with Flight
and The Aeroplane (if it is still
around) by suggesting that the P-80 is “credited” with a speed of “over
550mph.”
“Convair Coming Out with Twin-Engine Airliner” There’s an artist’s impression, too!
“C. W.Industries ‘Copter is
Two-Place Roadable” The Flymobile Two-Place Roadable is a co-axial helicopter
that you can drive as well as fly. Or will be, someday.
“Four-Place Air-Car is new RoadableProject” By Airmaster, designed by H. D. Boggs, and might be the pusher that Mr. Upsom is making fun of.
“Jarvis Firm Introducing VJ-21Two-Placer” Designed by a sailplane expert, so you know that it is extra-light.
Two marketing articles, on parts distributors
and a “village floatplane base” follow.
James B. Rea, “How Jet Propulsion
Simplifies Cruise Control” Because jets are simpler than internal combustion
propeller engines?
Aviation
News
Aircraft contracts have now been cut
back 90%. At best guess, the industry will have an output of $1.3 billion in
twelve months, and employ between 250,000 and 300,000 workers. It will still be
three times bigger than in 1939, but those are some cuts, and most of the 59
airplane plants, 20 engine plants and 7 propeller plants will have to go back
to peacetime lines of work. Only Boeing’s B-29 contracts have not been cut. A
Fairchild gun synchroniser can simultaneously synchronise every gun firing
through a propeller arc in spite of different placements, is electronic, and
minimal sized. The Curtiss XF15CF-1 is the first American rocket fighter.
Aviation’s
War Report No. 44, “Final Communique” At least it’s closer to the date than
most of these reports. It turns out that we did bomb Japan into surrender, in
case you were wondering.
Aircraft manufacturers continued to
make a lot of money in the last six months of the war.
The
Washington Windsock
Blaine Stubblefield thinks that the
atomic bomb is a big deal. I continue to think that Blaine Stubblefield is lucky to have a job.
Aviation
Abroad
The Seafire XIV and Junkers Ju-287
jet bomber are noted. The last looks a bit jury-rigged. It has a fixed
undercarriage! The paper is appalled by English Labour socialism.
"Modellphoto Ju287V1 1" by JuergenKlueser - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Modellphoto_Ju287V1_1.png#/media/File:Modellphoto_Ju287V1_1.png |
Fortune,
September 1945
Fortune’s
Wheel
The paper’s monthly schedule means
that this number was in production in August, with work already begun on the
October number, when news of Japan’s surrender came in. It has been revised in
various ways, and has a new cover.
It looks like UBC's original copy went missing at some point. |
The
Job Before Us
America went from 45 million
employed in 1939 to 63 in 1945. (Its population also increased by a full 9
million, almost as many as in the ten years before, but from birth rate numbers
that was mostly babies, not that you will read that in this number of the
paper, but I thought I’d throw it out, in case you haven’t seen the story in
the press.) Anyway, it made lots of stuff, won the war, and now the problem
before us is reconversion and the refugees of Europe.
“The Air War on Japan, I”
Apparently, we bombed Japan! Originally, 20th Air Force was created
to attack Japan from southern China. B-29s based there would have the range to
attack the Imperial Iron Works in Yawata, which make so much of the country’s
steel that knocking out their coking ovens would strangle Japanese war
production. Plus, it would keep China in the war and satisfy sectors of
American opinion. The paper says. It did not work out. For one thing, defective
engines had to be shipped back over the Himalayas and despatched to the United
States on “cannonball” expresses, which I did not know, and the whole thing did not exactly catch the
Japanese by surprise. and at the same time, plans for the Marianas base were
going ahead, and they did succeed.
“The Nash Tunes Up” Frazer-Nash-Kelvinator aims to produce
light-weight, economy cars. This sounds nice. Now, obviously, I wouldn’t drive a Nash, or let any of
my children or other people drive one, but there are those who need a cheap
car. Whether a light car is a cheap car, taking maintenance into account, is
another matter.
“Shot, Shell and Bombs:” A $3-billion Ammunition Industry,
Built in Three Years, Tripled its Rated Capacity to Give U.S. Soldiers
Overwhelming Firepower” The US has made more than 5 billion pounds of TNT, in
plants run by Quaker Oats and Coca-Cola, since the existing industry could not
expand its management team enough. Fuze assembly lines make 2,400 an hour.
Composition B, a mix of RDX and TNT, has
come down in price from 30 cents a pound in 1943 to 11 cents in 1945. The
United States had only one dry powder plant in 1939, the du Pont Barksdale
plant, able to make 100,000lb dry powder a day. In that year, the British
commissioned a du Pont plant in Tennessee to make TNT and smokeless powder. It
was taken over by the U/S under Lend-Lease. In the 1940 Emergency period,
fourteen were commissioned, rising to 36 by the aftermath of Pearl Harbour. By
1945, there were 58 government-owned, contractor-operated munitions plants.
The United State's largest x-ray machine examines TNT castings for bubbles. |
Fifteen plants were built to make toluene from oil, replacing coal gas
production, and the price has come down from $2/gallon to 27 cents/gallon. Five
plants were built to make ammonia from natural gas, replacing coal gas
production, again. In an only-in-America detail, most of the procurement and
management effort was administered from the cavernous basement of the ScottishRite Cathedral in St. Louis, Missouri.
“Bob Woodruff of Coca-Cola” I suppose this is the number to talk about the man who runs the fizzy-drink
company? He is a very hard working man, well known in sporting circles for all the time he takes off. He is also a very modest man. While he may own five homes, some look like
the homes of men who aren’t all that rich. ("A $10,000/year man, not a $10 million man.") Except for his apartment in New
York.
“I.T. and T.’s Nine Lives” ITT has survived all the things
it has survived.
ITT did badly when business was bad, but survived when other businesses didn't. Therefore, we are writing this article. |
“The Foreman Abdicates” The CIO is fighting with management
over whether the foremen of various companies, especially Ford, can be union
members.
“San Francisco Album” Now that the Conference is ancient
history, months and months ago, it is time for Anton Refregier to recall it in
watercolours and his sketch pad.
Misogyny is always good for a laugh! Gals swoon at the sight of Anthony Eden! |
James M. Landis, “Middle East Challenge: A Vast Market Likes
Our Goods, Our Gadgets, Even Our Manners: If We Don’t Sell More Than Ever
Before, It’s Our Own Fault” Harvard’s dean is the new American “Middle East
Missionary.” I would, personally, choose a different figure of speech, but what
do I know? Anyway, Russian communists are a threat, and there’s lots of oil.
The fact that the Middle East is in the sterling area makes this complicated,
and we should try to end this. After all, the larger the sterling area, the
larger must be England’s reserve of dollars, which has risen from $200 million
in 1939 to $2 billion now. On the other hand, maybe this is justified, and we shouldn't try to fiddle with the sterling area. But what about oil?
The Farm Column
The Northeast has a problem. It is the largest feed deficit
region in the country, buying some 12 million tons of feed concentrate
annually, mostly from the Mid-West. When dairy prices fall, the dairy farmers
of the Northeast have to take the cost of feed right out of their profits. In
the old days, at least Midwestern feed farmers were an isolated lot, so their
prices were not sensitive to increases in world demand. That is no longer true.
So now there is a push to improve fodder yields in the Northeast. Fertiliser,
cutting, and new grass crops are suggested, from trefoil to Reed canary to
Ladino. Various farmers have reacted to these ideas conservatively. John B.
Abbott of Bellows Falls, Vermont, and Roe McDonald of North Haverhill, New
Hampshire, haven’t, and that is why they have doubled their milk production per
cow from 5,499lbs/year in 1920 to 10,020 on average in 1941—44. Forty-six
Brigham cows have produced 2000lb of butter fat in a year for four consecutive
years. In “The 4% Crop,” Ladd Haystead
looks at the precarious business of potato farming, where a 4% difference in
production makes the difference between profit and loss. Highly perishable in
all but the coldest climates, potatoes have a maddeningly high rate of spoilage
when the farmer has to hold his crop back from market due to a surplus. This is
why the potato starch industry is a boon to the farmer. He is also impressed
with a recent experiment with Alabama beef cows finished in Indiana, which
might represent the thin edge of the wedge of Southern competition with Western
farmers.
Books and Ideas
David J. Dallin’s new book, The Big Three, sees a tacit Anglo-American alliance to block Russia
from rising to dominance. Because it is
communist, you know. Dallin is an émigré, so we must take his low opinion of
Russian communism extra-seriously. The paper thinks he is exaggerating a bit.
The Russians may have a large army, but it has no trucks. And while he sees a
confrontation of sea versus land power, he makes no mention of air power.
D. W. Brogan, The Free
State Mr. Brogan thinks that free countries are better than totalitarian
dictatorships.
Sir Wiliam Beveridge’s Price
of Peace¸ Charles Beard’s Economic
Basis of Politics, and Chih Tsang’s China’sPostwar Markets are also out. The latter book is pessimistic, since it
points out that China will have to run a trade deficit, which would be best financed
as aid. This does not leave a lot of room for China to import large numbers of
Nash cars!
Nash's engine-testing shop, which is shown here, opened up after being mothballed from 1941--45. Kind of amazing,, when you think about it. |
Business Abroad
Many Berlin factories are still working, so the bombers will
have to try harder, next time. Crop failures are a problem around the world,
incredible as this is after the overproduction of the 1930s. Although the North
American harvests are solid, there is trouble in the Southern Hemisphere, and
above all, in Europe. France, for example, managed to sow wheat on only 75% of
the average prewar acreage, and the North African crop is 1,3 million tons,
against 4.5m on average before the war. Italy’s harvest is 20% under last
year’s unsatisfractory yield. Eastern Europe is even worse off, and Germany is
a catastrophe due to the labour vanishing. The total continental deficit will
hit 30 million tons, against the estimated 22.6 m carryover of the wheat
producing countries. The food shortage is partly responsible for the coal
shortage. Belgium, which put in the harshest fiscal reforms on liberation, is looked
to to lead the way to renewed prosperity. No-one is balancing their budget, but
Sweden might come closest, first, achieving it this year.
Fortune Survey
“U.S. Opinion of Russia” Progress is being made, but at this
rate it’ll be a good five years or so before we’re ready to have a war with
Russia.
Business at War
Sidney James Weinberg of Goldman, Sachs talks to the paper.
He is a very conscientious director of many companies. The paper also meditates
on American Celanese’s unusual profit-sharing plan and the recent anti-trust
case in the alkali industry.
...And as a little postscript, we now have Uncle George's telegram from Vancouver, where he tells us that he has laid plans for an infallible commando raid to whisk you off to the Campbell River house the moment your plane from Ottawa, of which no-one has told us, touches down! He suspects that you will do nothing in Campbell River except sleep, but says that the rain is good for that; and if you want to sleep in Santa Clara, we will have a bed for you instead of a welcome! Although no rain, either way. As I do not know when you fly, I am dispatching this letter to you in London, anyway. It may end up following you around the world for a bit, though.
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