My Lord:
Merry Christmas, and best wishes for the New Year! You are probably wondering why you are receiving this, in lieu of a card or whatnot, and especially about all the deciphering being demanded of you in this season of celebration. Well, with my father on his way from Vancouver to join us for the holidays, we were not going to produce one of these notes. But it was represented to us that you took some pleasure from them, and now that I have been able to go to Davao, you are certainly owed some kind of casting of accounts. We certainly do not wish to offend you, not when you have taken the German matter in hand!
Since you have seen the others, you will know that they have been the hobby of my Uncle George and my wife, Grace. Uncle George is still refusing to do anything that smacks of work, and my wife is only a week past her surgery, still on powerfull pain medication, and in no condition to do anything requiring sitting.
This also raises a rather sensitive matter. My father has dropped some hints, and I cannot find a way of politely disabusing him of the notion that I will need to make provisions, now that my wife has, well, suffice it to say that Victoria Claire's delivery was unfortunately abrupt. Someone needs to put his mind to rest! Dr. Rivers is a very good surgeon, and assures that me that no marital difficulties will ensue.
You will probably be disappointed by the scantiness of the accounts. The problem is that I am looking into an extremely unclear crystal ball. In the matter of real estate, we have already disposed of the old feedlot. Uncle Henry is developing it according to his own schemes. The land in Palo Alto has not attracted the same kind of attention. Frankly, I hope to see it as some kind of commuter's suburb, too, but one not entangled with Kaiser-style schemes. The orchards south of oSanta Clara will probably have to go, eventually, too, but I want to see the land around them start to move, first, as this will bid the price up. With the exception of the houselots which Grace has already carved out. Who knows? They may even get the ball rolling. I can visualise trailer homes on the Spokane lands --if there is enough population growth to encourage it, but in Couer d'Alene and the lower bend of the river in Canada, I think we can safely abandon hope of anything more than expropriation if the dam ever goes through.
As for the money we have invested "on the water," we will have a better sense of its value when our friends finally get around to incorporating. Unfortunately, no-one is in a hurry to launch stock issues in America right now --there is just not the need. If the tape-recording machine were ready for consumer use, then perhaps Bill and David, or their assignees (the preferred scheme) would hurry to the market, but it is not, and we continue to have misgivings about associating them with it, anyway. If it is not to be their "breakthrough" product, then we are back to their original schemes, according to which incorporation might be a decade(!) away. Hopefully, the Russian will before that.
Obviously, assessing the value of our stock portfolio is just a matter of subscribing to the business press. We stand ready to help you repatriate the money if you need it, but I hope you do not, as the end of exchange controls are imminent.
As for the Davao visit, the news is not the worst that can be imagined, but it is not good, either. The effect of heat and humidity on the papers is very noticeable. When I imagine what it must have been like to take them down the river, under the eyes of the Five Banners and the British alike, one can well appreciate why so many of the other Hongs burned their family documents, instead. And now they are rotting in the tropical air. I know we had always hoped that if ever family ties frayed to the point where we had need of a magistrate, it would be in Canton, where the bench could be trusted not to inquire as to what other names might attach to someone appearing before them "in their own proper person."
Looking at the situation in China now, I do not think that that is not going to be possible for a very long time. And, obviously, there should be no question of, for example, the original capitulation between the Admiral and the Lady being produced before a British judge. But if the papers are to be left in Davao for another century, something must be done about the climate. I am inquiring, very carefully, inquiring about air conditioning. We shall have to see. I have no idea how we would keep that secret from the neighbours and avoid gossip, but I am going to see what some Californian rice (as see below) might secure. Besides a bizarre story, related to me with a straight face by a Delta grower, to the effect that American agronomists discovered the best way to grow rice twenty years ago!
And so I leave off with one more round of best wishes of the season, feeling more than a little queer in pivoting from tropical heat to a Merry Christmas, even here in sunny California!
James.
The
Economist, 1 December 1945
Leaders
“The Industrial Volcano” The paper is afraid of strikes, and
thinks that the Government should do something in the way of a “national wages policy”
that will be better than just negotiating wages. I notice that the paper thinks
that somehow, in some way, workers should
be encouraged to enter vital industries where wages are low. We'll see this in Fortune, below, where "pretty girls in the rest rooms" seems to figure.
“Reparations from Japan” Should Japan pay reparations, and,
if so, to whom? Well, mainly China, but China already stands to inherit
Japanese investments in Manchuria, so perhaps this is a wash. Except that the Communists have taken over in Manchuria, or possibly the Russians are taking the machinery. Either way, the Nationalists get
nothing, and instead are inclined to demand the transfer of capital equipment
from Japan. The United States, howevcer, belikevers that far from being able to
make substantial reparations payments, Japan will be hard put to pay the costs
of the occupation. America has sole responsibility for Japan, and has decided
that it wants to keep the Japanese alive, no matter what was said after Pearl
Harbour, so no reparations it is.
 |
| Dr. Seuss was a complicated guy. 3:25ff. |
“Post-Fascist Politics” Latins are excitable.
“The Problems of Rates, III” And I thought a long article
about whether the Socialists would continue to outpoll conservatives in places
where the words have vowels at the end, and whether they would be distinct from
the communists was boring. Here is a long article on the reform of local
taxation in Britain. I imagine that this is quite important to you. I would not dream of interposing a glib summary.
Notes of the Week
“Idealism and Foreign Policy” The paper quotes Mr. Butler as
saying that Labour is putting forward an idealistic foreign policy. The paper
has doubts about idealism, and has specific opinions about, for example, “an
Anglo-French full employment policy” such as one might have if once first all
the other things that have to be nailed down. What would that even entail?
“United Nations in Session” It is.
“The Opposition’s Policy” Brendan Bracken, Harold MacMillan
and Richard Law showed up in Parliament the other day, along with Mr. Eden,
where they expressed opinions which, my wife summarises, may eventually grow up to be beautiful policies. No, sorry, I am confused. That's the ending of a story that Grace was reading to the twins last night.
“The Manpower Budget” The Chancellor of the Exchequer and
the Minister of Labour gave a talk to the Fabian Society the other day, and the
paper preferred Mr. Isaac’s contribution. The problem, as the paper sees it, is
that “full employment” is not defined. Or, rather, that Mr. Beveridge defines
it as when there is more demand for labour than supply, perhaps when
unemployment is at 3%, and the paper does not like that definition. If labour
is a seller’s market, then the highest-paying industries will get the labour,
and this will result in distortions that are sure to cause a slump. “Policy”
requires that, in the event of low unemployment, labour be directed to those
important industries that do not pay well. The paper then goes on about how
public works should not be the government’ only tool of “stabilisation,” that
some means of “stabilising” private investment and foreign trade should be
found, in way of preventing slumps. In summary, Geoffrey Crowther needs an editor.
“Russia and Persia” One continues to hope that a war with
Russia will not break out any day now.It would be so exciting. I am
sorry. One means, “terrible.” The reason I'm borrowing my wife's joke is that I'm reading aloud to her right now.
“Warfare and Negotiations in Indonesia” Mr. Bevin is very
exasperated by the situation in Java. He wishes that the left would shut up
about support for the Dutch, that the Dutch would shut up about lack of support
for the Dutch, that Japan would not have done what it did with respect to
supporting Indonesian independence, and that everyone would agree with him and
with Mr. Churchill in regards to the value of meeting with Soekarno and
negotiating with him. The paper thinks that now that Indonesian moderates have
come forward, and that the RAF has rocketed the two insurgent radio stations inthe interior, we can get down to business.
 |
| So apparently rockets had a less-than-stellar record against genocidaires as well as Panzerrs. |
“After the French Crisis” There was a French Crisis, and now
it is over. I'm not really clear on the difference between “constitutional crisis in
France” and “Tuesday,” but perhaps when I get round to reading my backlog of Time, there will be someone who can explain there, because The Economist isn't doing the job.
“The Tax on Cars” The argument here is that the old tax on
engine capacity was getting in the way of the export trade by discouraging big,
cheap cars. The solution the paper liked was an ad valorem tax, but that is not
on the table for some reason the paper affects not to understand, leaving the
alternatives of a “wide step” or “narrow step.” Given the two, the paper
prefers the former, as reducing the number of models and paving the way to a
bright, Fordist future. So, of course, the government has gone with the latter. The paper knows a lot less about automotive engineering and sales than it thinks it does.
“Strangling the Boundary Commission” The government is
BUNGLING the reform of local government.
“Moves in he Docks Dispute”
“The Italian Scene” Parliamentary manoeuvres which are
admittedly inconsequential ahead of the next election need to be parsed with
great care, lest I not be bored enough.
“The Greeks Try Again” “The Greek crisis is over.” Well,
aside from inflation and an unbalanced budget and postponed elections. But “Mr.Tsouderos” is in the cabinet, and the paper likes Mr. Tsouderos.
“The British Middle East Office” The Middle East Supply
Centre has been renamed. The paper detects BUNGLING.
“Unrra, 1946” In spite of fears to the contrary, the Senate
has approved the first tranche of the Unrra budget, so the paper can move
forward to worrying about the next
tranche, as Congress may yet vote not to extend it to areas under Russian
control.
“Calcutta Rioting” With trouble in Palestine and Java
subsiding, it is India’s turn. The paper sees the Govrnment of Bengal as having been provocatively violent, and Congress as having exerted a calming
influence.
 |
| . "Red Fort, Delhi by alexfurr" by Alex Furr - http://www.sxc.hu/photo/265265. Licensed under Attribution via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Red_Fort,_Delhi_by_alexfurr.jpg#/media/File:Red_Fort,_Delhi_by_alexfurr.jpg |
“Safety on the Roads” Road accidents are at high levels and rising rapidly. The Lords are
going to study the issue. Road control is an issue, since Government takeover
is a perquisite to improving the roads, but is there nothing else to be done,
the paper asks. Perhaps changes to the Highway Code? Or legal enforcement?
“Communist Self-Criticism” The Communist Party of Great
Britain is meeting, and self-criticising. The paper thinks that there is much
to self-criticise.
“The Amateur’s Aircraft” There are lots of small civil
aircraft types being launched in
America. The paper detects a scheme afoot on a par with the old CivilAir Guard, and speaks out in advance agakinst the pernicious idea of
subsidies for small plane owners.
“The Soldiers’ Vote” It seems that it is possible to
construe the facts as showing that Labour was not elected on the strength of
the soldiers’ vote not being properly counted, much to the disappointment
of some people I used to try to avoid in the mess, although I'm sure that they would be charming people if they could just stop talking politics long enough to just finish something.
 |
| I'm just going to go ahead and assume that Kiri Liz hasn't thought about the context. And, actually, this bit about the soldier's vote not being counted is new to me, and makes it even creepier. Thanks for ruining Lord of the Rings, history! |
Shorter Notes
Members of the House are not to say anything prejudicial
about the judges in Nuremberg, that is, they are to be treated like English
judges. The Allied Control Commission in Berlin has banned various sports to
prevent secret German drilling. The paper thinks that this is stupid.
Correspondence
Stuart Rice, of the Bureau of the Budget in Charge of
Statistical Standards thinks that there are good and bad statistics, and his budget
is too low for good ones. Ceylonese have
their difficulties with the Ceylonese constitution as proposed.
American Survey
“Outside Surveys” From a Correspondent in Iowa
Outside institutions and such are often called in to
“survey” problems in America’s local government. Our Correspondent thinks that
depending on the Brookings Institution and such will have pernicious effects in
the long run. For example, sprawling industrial cities won’t have plans until
they do planning, or something like that.
“An Angry Ambassador” The sensational resignation of General Hurley as ambassador to China lays open divisions within the Administration over
China. Hurley thinks that diplomats within State have been fomenting Communist
resistance to the Nationalists. Others think that it is Hurley’s attempts to
commit America to military support of the Nationalists which has been the
problem. Fat Chow tells me that Chou calls him "the Clown," which I believe actually back-translates into English as "Member of the Engineer's Administration." General Marshall’s appointment will hopefully smooth things over.
“Labour Management Impasse” Is what exists in Detroit right
now.
“When is Enough a Surplus” America has a lot of food,
America is going off rationing, America is going off price subsidies, America
is committed to continuing to save on excess consumption and to fulfilling its
Unrra food aid exports and meeting foreign demand for food exports. The paper
detects that a house of cards is being built which will collapse next summer.
“Pearl Harbour Politics” It turns out that the Congressional
inquiry into Pearl Harbour is all politics! I know. I was shocked to hear it.
Uncannily relevant.
“Reorganisation Proceeds Slowly” American government is
being reorganised for peace. There’s not actually much to report, though,
except that the paper really likes talking about it.
“The Philippines Graduate” The Philippines were to have had
a national election in November, but it has been postponed because the wrong
people might win. Or not. There are insurgents who might be communists, or
agrarian reformers, landlords who might or might not be feudal magnates, and
General MacArthur, whose influence is held to be sinister. But America is
washing its hands of the country next year, and would like to see collaborators
struck from the government by then. Yes, of course it is. America's hands will be off the Philippines completely. As for absentee landlords . . .
The World Overseas
“Reconstruction in Austria” There does not appear to be a
crisis in Austria.
“The Political Background in Mexico, II” There is always a
crisis in Mexico.
“CNR Prospects” From Our Ottawa Correspondent
CNR is the government-owned part of the overbuilt Canadian
rail system. It has done quite well in the war, but, if you squint, you can see
trouble on the horizon.
 |
| Two railways, one canyon. Some say "overbuilt," others say "nation building." |
“Norway’s Economic Recovery” Is going well. Our Norwegian
correspoindent has no idea how to write for the paper.
“Swiss Recovery Begins” Trouble on the horizon! Now that’s more like it.
The Business World
The paper covers compensation for nationalisation and the
Government’s concept of a “bulk housing purchase.” Both are in very tentative
stages, so I really don’t want to bother myself with the details. I Conversions are how the Government is going to get to lower interest rates, and
so, I suppose, “cheaper money,” so no doubt it is important, but. . .
Business Notes
Dorman Long and Co. is to erect a new Universal Beam Mill on
Tyneside at a cost of £8 million, “revolutionising 75% of steel joist
production in this country,” for it will roll the flanges, reducing thethickness needed to bear a given stress by 17.5%. The H sections can be sheared
to produce T sections, so the savings will be passed on to shipbuilders as
well. The sections can be as deep as 30”, with a flange up to 12” wide,
corresponding to 400lbs/ft. There will also be a new open hearth furnace and unloading
facilities capable of handling a million tons of ore annually. 23,000 tons of
machinery will be required, and some of may have to come from the United
States. A third of the necessary investment will have to be found outside the
company. The paper is pleased. It is forty years since the first universal millwas erected in Luxembourg by Henry Gray, and the idea has since been taken up
widely in America, even as British structural steel has been more expensive
than required on technical grounds. It is about time, in other words.
 |
| Source: Marcel Dekker, Hot Rolling of Steel. . The paper does not know as much about the shaping of steel as it thinks it does. |
In shorter news, there has been a report on reconversion,
there is a prospect of cheaper bank loans, the French banks may be
nationalised, the rubber crisis has had to be deferred for lack of crisis, but
the paper is confident that it can be resumed at an early date, Britain’s
railways are under strain due to winter, the war and coal and a shortage of
waggons. Coal mining productivity continues to decline, and the labour force
is falling by 800 to 1000 a week. The industry is also about to lose its Bevin Boys and optants, although the paper notes that 5000 of the Boys are already “officially unaccounted for,” and no-one is looking very hard for them. In good news,
the floating debt has fallen and the industrial accident rate has fallen,
notably in the mines. In not so good news, Electric and Music Industries is
doing well financially, but is having trouble making a quick reconversion to
peacetime production, as Government demands on it opver the last six years were
unusually heavy compared to what is typical for the industry.
The actual shorter news includes an impressive array of
errata from previous weeks.
Flight,
6 December 1945
Leaders
“Unsound Optimism” The Parliamentary
Secretary is too optimistic about the British industry recapturing the market
in a few years’ time with fripperies such as gas turbines, when it could be
conquering it now with more flying boats. That is, Short Brothers’ sale of a
few reconditioned Sunderlands to Argentina is the first of a flood of sales, if
only the Government would just Do Something.
“Turbines and Airscrews” The paper
is impressed by the Bristol Theseus, and in particular by the way that the
speed of the airscrew and compressor are governed separately, so that the
engine has high efficiencies at takeoff, where in a system where the airscrew
and compressor are turning on the same shaft, the low speed of the screw would
stall the compressor.
“Lord Swinton’s Warning” Lord
Swinton thinks that nationalisation will be bad for British civil aviation. The
paper agrees while disagreeing.
“The Price of Progress” The loss of
a test Handley Page Hermes, following on the death of a Fairey test pilot in a
Firefly I reminds us either that the title of the bit, etc. Or, that Handley
Page makes garbage, as my wife keeps pointing out.
 |
| "HP.81 Hermes 4 G-ALDT Air Safaris Ringway 12.08.61 edited-3" by RuthAS - Own work. Licensed under CC BY 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:HP.81_Hermes_4_G-ALDT_Air_Safaris_Ringway_12.08.61_edited-3.jpg#/media/File:HP.81_Hermes_4_G-ALDT_Air_Safaris_Ringway_12.08.61_edited-3.jpg |
A picture reminds us that DC-4s are
being made in Canada with Merlin power plants.
“Bristol Theseus I” The Theseus is a
gas turbine engine specifically designed to drive an airscrew. As the paper
points out at length, this is an excellent compromise between jet turbines and
internal combustion airscrews. It also has fewer bits that can go wrong. Besides the way the airscrew is driven, the
design is interesting for using a heat exchanger to regenerate waste energy.
Since compressors, like airscrews, are at maximum efficiency only within a
narrow range of rotational speeds, and this at maximum power, and various
gadgets are needed to accommodate the fact that plane speeds change. It has
those gadgets! Some of which the paper is not allowed to describe. But, trust
it, they’re ingenious. The paper traces the Theseus’ development back to
Bristol’s 1924—5 experiments with the turbo-supercharged Jupiter, and forward
to its experiments, beginning in 1937, with a turbo-blown version of its sleeve
valve engines. “[T]he idea being that boost and back pressure would be
progressively increased, the sleeve valve being very well suited to operation
at high back pressure. Thus, ultimately, a state of affairs would be reached
where the engine and exhaust-turbo powers were equal, and it would be possible
to interchange airscrew and compressor, thereby making the engine and
compressor virtually a gas generator unit, and driving the airscrew by the
exhaust turbine.” The idea seems a bit ambitious for a period when the company
couldn’t even get its sleeve valves to work, but while it might not have been
able to deliver actual Taurus and Hercules units to the Air Ministry, never
mind Centauruses, at least it had a path forward into the misty future! “The
Theseus is only the first of a family of Bristol turbine units in which the
primary objective is the attainment of the highest possible thermal efficiency
consistent with reasonable weight and bulk.” Not only did someone think that
this was a sentence worth writing, an editor passed it!
Because after the Theseus came the Proteus, and someone had the bright idea of using it as a car engine. Now I can't help linking to this.
Speaking of. . .
“Flight Editorial Staff: Pre-War
Members Returning from RAF” Flt. Lt. H. A. Taylor and Wing Commander Maurice A.
Smith, DFC And BAR, will be back at the paper within the month. I hope they
bring blue pencils. Taylor, who learned to fly in 1929 and handled 40 civil
types before becoming CO of No. 3 Ferry Command from May to October 1940, and
was a test pilot at No. 48 MU for most of the rest of the war. Smith joined the
Oxford University Air Squadron in 1934, the RAFVR in 1937, was a flying
instructor from 1939 to 1942, then went into Bomber Command in 1943, first as a
Lancaster man, later in the Pathfinders.
H. F. King will also be back in March.
The test pilot lost in the Firefly I
accident was Flt. Lt. J. C. Evans. He will be remembered for his recent,
spectacular demonstration flights at the Farnborough show.
Here
and There
“More Yankee Doodles” Pictures of
two Northrop jet-propelled flying bombs, the JB-1A, and the “earlier, twin-jet
type now superceded.”
Otto Wells has died in a road
accident. Dunlops is now offering a special kind of tubeless tyre for “use in
the Burma swamps.” RAF Transport Command’s Canada-Australia service, which was
to end last Sunday, is going to continue, because the Australians aren’t ready
to take it over, and the Americans are winding theirs down. The RCAF has
disposed of its surplus aircraft, except for the twin-engined Cessna Crane
trainer/light transport type. The Vancouver
Sun reports that the Dominion government spent $80 million building 42
airfields to protect the British Columbia coastline during the war, and now has
to decide what to do with them. Fairey wants us to know that it built the RAF’s
late war pamphlet-dispensing device, andt his shows how ingenious the company
is, in general. It built lots of things that it isn’t allowed to talk about.,
and also other things that it is, such as moulded seats, “parachute jettison
control units,” and “fuel drain valves.” It is describing all of these in a
pamphlet in English, French and Spanish, and wants everyone to know that, in
spite of being in three languages, it is a lovely pamphlet, and shows Fairey
ingenuity in describing its ingenuity.
A Dutch woman has written the Air
Ministry to tell it that she named her son Ronald Adrianus Frans, even though
the RAF was bombing Holland when young R.A.F. was born, because she was so
confident that the RAF would win the war. The RAF responded by sending R.A.F. a
nice model.
Sydney is to have quite the RAAF Memorial Centre, if the Air Force
Association of Australia can just raise the money. Mr. A. S. Drakeford, the
Australian Air Minister, announced this week that a jet-propelled aircraft
would go to Australia next month for RAAF test flying under tropical
conditions. The Aeronautical Engineers’ Association is upset at the Air
Ministry. A Russian test balloon recently made a stratospheric flight for the
Army Central Aerologic Observatory for the purpose of studying cosmic rays and
the upper strata of the atmosphere, according to the Soviet Academy of Science.
General Spaatz, the designated successor of General Arnold, called this week
for a network of air bases in the Arctic regions as protection against a future
war. This protection would take the form of B-29 Superfortresses making one-way
bombing trips against “every industrial political and military centre.” Because
once all of the arsenals have been atom-bombed, war will be impossible.
Roy Fedden, “German Piston-engine
Progress: Projected Departures from the Inverted Vee-12 and Two-bank Radial
Formulae: Planning for 5000 h.p.: Progress Delayed by Our Bombing”
Apart from the Sabre, all of the
military engines used in the last war were either V-12s, or single or two-bank
radials. This did not prevent the Germans from experimenting with other
configurations. The 24-cylinder DB 604 24-cylinder “X,” for example,
development work on which was stopped in 1940. I am not sure what the point is,
when the Daimler-Benz V-12 development line, from the DB 600 in service at the
beginning of the war, to the 605, which was never brought into production, was
so fruitful. The 605, with a two-stage, two-speed supercharger, hydraulic
clutch and freewheel, was broadly comparable, the author suggests, to the
Merlin 61, although I think that’s a bit misleading, since Daimler-Benz
increased engine volume progressively in the 600 series, where Rolls-Royce just
made one break, from the Merlin to the Griffon (not counting the Kestrel/Peregrine), so that the 605 can also be
compared with the new makes of Griffon just coming on now. Although the 605
skipped the intercooler, which sounds audacious, I suppose. Also, and with
respect to the American bombing campaign against the ball bearing plants, it is
interesting to see that the 605 dropped roller bearings on the crankshaft end.
There was also the Junkers line of
inverted V-12s, terminating with the 213, “probably the best fighter
piston-engine that Germany possessed,” and the BMW 801, a “successful
14-cylinder air-cooled radial,” with its single-lever control. This is the
engine that introduced powered fan cooling, and gave the FW190 its sparkling
performance, but, again, this is not noted, although I agree that the "single lever control" was a remarkable piece of engineering, although even here Fedden sells the "control device" far short. At this point he brings up the coupled
inverted V-12 engines which were used on the big Heinkel bomber. He thinks that
the designs were so congested that fire problems were probably insuperable, and
who is to disagree, but this seems like an awfully short treatment of the only high
power, unconventional engines which actually were used. He goes on to describe
the D.B. 604, 43 litre “X,” project, the DB 630, with six blocks of six
cylinders, giving a swept volume of 83 litres and a predicted power of 4000hp,
but any work on these projects was lost to Allied bombing. Jumo came up with a
24 cylinder 4 6-cylinder bank radially-arranged, liquid-cooled engine, which
had connecting rod problems which were never resolved, as Junkers abandoned the
work in favour of developing the 213 with various gadgets (2 stage, 2 speed
supercharger, 2 stage, 3 speed supercharger with four valves per cylinder,
etc), of which the latter had almost reached the point of production, with the
hope of achieving 2600hp on a dry weight of 2335lbs, but only at the cost of
“abnormally high” piston speed.
Finally, he moves on to various
developments of the BMW 801 that BMW hoped would take back the field from the
V-12s that supplanted their 14 cylinder air cooled engine after its sparkling
introduction in the FW190. I guess this isn’t surprising, given that Fedden was
the main proponent of the air-cooled radial in the British industry, but
devoting half the article to the BMW efforts seems like special pleading.
As he says, the Germans, in the end,
have little to teach British industry, for their engines lagged behind ours,
mainly on account of supercharger development. I suspect that the reason for
that has to do with their inability to play with high endurance alloys more than
anything else. Krupp, Fedden tells us, patented and did “much” of the
pioneering work on nitriding steels, but the Vickers Hykro specification was
superior in the end. Hykro is a 3% chromium, 0.5% molybdenum steel, and there
is no way that the Germans could afford to make their engines of that!
“Parachute Problems” Mr. Leslie
Irvin, of Irvin Parachutes, gave a talk on the problems facing manufacturers
now that fighters are flying at 40,000ft. Both ejecting and deploying
parachutes is difficult at this height, and a pilot descending under a
properly-deployed chute will die of anoxia in the descent from 40,000ft Irvings
has a parachute for ejector seat use that doesn’t deploy until 10,000ft is
reached, and a complicated device it is! It still takes three minutes to fall
from 40,000 to 10,000ft, so the chute must be automatic, although ideally the
pilot would have a small amount of oxygen. Irvin made 400,000 parachutes during
the war, and some 30,000 Allied airmen were saved by parachutes. He has also
developed a flexible backpack parachute that will allow aircrew to “squoosh,” (as we say in Santa Clara these days when we are looking for missing toddlers),
about in the confined quarters of a bomber without having to take their pack
off.
“’Indicator’ Discusses Topics of the
Day: Shock Tactics for Shock Waves: Starting with a Clean Sheet: Are we on the
Right Lines of High-Speed Development: The Strange Case of the Spitfire”
The paradox seems to be that “a five
year-old” design is safer at high speeds than recent designs with special
anti-shock-wave features, and than an even older design is good for up to Mach
0.92. The five year-old design is the
Meteor, and the “even older” one is the Spitfire. The “recent design” is the
Lockheed P-80, famously and especially designed by that group in California for
high speed performance. We are looking for some ingenious combination of wing
profile and layout that will allow an airplane to go faster before encountering
the shock wave, and then the furniture of patent recovery flaps and such that
will allow it to get back down to safe speed. And I guess that if we press on
with this, eventually we will get right through the close-to-Mach speeds where
shock waves arise, and find a vast and sunny upland of super sonic speed, and fuel consumption to match. If, however, the key is
furniture, “Indicator” points out, then we are going to have to make the skins
of the wings very stiff indeed, so that they do not bend and spoil the effects
of the patent flaps and whatnot. And then there is the problem of air intake.
Two-and-a-half tons of air a minute is a lot of air, and if the intakes are in
the body of the plane, as they must be for single-unit types, it is hard to locate
them without spoiling airflow. “Indicator” closes by suggesting that we should
accept that we have a lot to learn about these things, and that we should push
on with test flying until we do.
“Short Sandringham: Civil
Sunderlands Now in Production” Sir, you need to get over to Rochester and tell
them that my wife is on the way over to explain about the future of flying boat
airliners. They really do need the advanced warning, as she will be using some
very forceful and salty language about intimate parts of her anatomy turning “as blue as her
fingers had already gone” while waiting to dock and disembark. She may then get a bit violent, just as she is planning to do right now. . .
“The Shetland II: Further Details of the
Largest British Flying Boat: Ingenious Electrical Assisters for the Flying
Controls” I have been informed that my joke above was far too private. My point is that Grace flew from San Francisco to Hawaii several times during the late war, for
the most part in the old Consolidated flying boats, and in what turned out to
be her last trip, the boat had to set down in the middle of San Francisco
Harbour in a ground fog, and the engines then couldn’t be run for taxying
purposes because there was too much chop, and she got very, very cold in the
cabin before the boat was finally towed into dock. This experience has quite
soured her on flying boats, and also made her receptive to Uncle George’s
criticisms of the type, which mainly revolve around his experience mucking
around in boats. Though he does like to cite gory details of flying boats being
wrecked by colliding with flotsam on landing, or with the bottom of the
harbour. The two of them are therefore convinced that the flying boat has no
future, and I have been witness to several vigorous conversations with Uncle Henry
on the subject. So that is why I am ignoring the Shetland, at the expense of probably
making you puzzle through more characters than had I simply summarised the
article for you. Which is too bad, because if I weren’t ignoring it, I would summarise the very interesting discussion of the B. and P. Swift, Ltd
“Synchromo” electrically assisted controls, with irreversible and “feel”
variants. (Irreversible on the throttles, feel for rudder and ailerons.)
“Kibitzer,” “Anglo-American Angle:
An Englishman in the States Reports Transatlantic Reactions to the Meteor
Record, British Publicity Methods and Other Current Topics” The author is upset
that the record attempt was announced in advance, as he supposes that a
devilish American publicity campaign inoculated the American public against it.
Only it didn’t, but that doesn’t matter, because Americans are convinced that
their airliners will be better than British airliners, and the author thinks
that they are right, and that British publicists should stop making stupid
comments about the Tudor, Lancastrian, Hermes and such. Also, there will be
light planes, and the National Air Races will be held at Cleveland again in
.46, and a Melbourne-around-the-world race in 1947. “Kibitzer” thinks that
there should be a British entrant. Finishing up the insight and hilarity is a
short bit by the paper explaining what a “Kibitizer” is, which is completely
lost in translation.
“The Illusionists: How the Radio
Counter Measures of No. 100 Group Kept the Enemy Guessing” The Group that
Father’s unit was eventually attached to is revealed. In November 1943, AirVice-Marshal E. B. Addison was appointed AOC No. 100 Group, after being AOC 60
Group since September. In the first months of the Group, Addison says, the
emergency was met by borrowing radio equipment from hospitals (remember that
feature about electrocardiographs? Hospitals actually have some pretty good
gear!) and operating it at local police stations, often in the bedroom of the
police sergeant’s wife. Addison describes an early success in “bending the
beams” guiding a German raid and sending the raiders from the Derby works that
were their target towards the Nottingham Starfish site. He also credited the
defensive work of 80 Group, and in particular “Flt. Officer Barbara Pemberton,
Flot. Officer Elizabeth Strang, and Flt. Officer Ursula Smith.” He notes
jammers, the recovery of a Ju 88 night fighter with the latest version of SN.2
and Liechtenstein radars, and the work of Air Commodore L. Dalton-Morris, who
supervised the creation of a radar/radio image fake invasion flotilla that
diverted the Germans away from Normandy on the night of the D-Day invasion.
In other words, it’s essentially a
collection of Addison’s reminisinces and some people he wanted to thank.
“German Aeronautical Progress” W. J.
Stern of the RTP Branch of the Air Ministry is arranging for the circulation of
thousands of German research notes in Britain.
Wing Commander L. V. Fraser,
“’Gremlin Task Force:’ Japanese Aircrews and Aircraft Flying for the RAF in
French Indo-China” In summary, in the
Far East, we’re allowed to have Japanese collaborators. Communists, Annamese
and Javan nationalists are not.
“Luxury on Trial: Minister of Civil
Aviation Launches First of the Short Sandringhams” Everyone who flew on the
Short Sandringham trials thought that they were very quiet and comfortable.
“Atlantic Ferry Pool: The Work of
the Civilian Delivery Pilots on the Atlantic Run: From “Atfero: Days to 45
Group, RAF” Considering how often you have hosted pilots from the Pool, you
probably do not need this article summarised. I’m not sure anyone does. It’s
only a page and a half, and you can imagine just how much detail you can get
into a page and a half.
Civil
Aviation News
The prototype Bristol Freighter is
“nearly ready.” Jersey and Guernsey Airways have made many flights. There are
still more plans for Prestwick. Or the old plans are still on. Or the still
plans are more on. I’m being silly, but not as silly as the paper is being
repetitive. More commercial crossings of theAtlantic have been made. Two
airlines are test/service flying Constellations, one DC-4s. Pan American has
ordered 20 Boeing Stratocruisers which might be used on the Atlantic service.
The Swedes are still planning a service using DC-4s. The British are trying to
negotiate a standard tariff, which will be highe than the one that PAA is
currently charging. New Zealand is nationalising its airlines. It has airlines?
Trans Canada is planning to use DC-4s with Merlins more. Irish services using
Ansons are imminent. KLM services to London are imminent. Qantas is operating a
Colombo-Sydney service with Liberators. Canada’s DC-4s have Merlins even more!
Lost with the Handley Page Hermes were Flt. Lt. James Richard Talbot, who made
the first test flight of the Halifax, and leaves a widow and three children,
and test observer Edgar Alexander (“Ginger”) Wright, 31 years old, who joined
the firm as a boy in the drawing office in 1931, started his apprenticeship in
1933 and has been specialising in the recording side of test work ever since.
Correspondence
R. Green points out that houses made
of Sunderland fuselages would experience “the wonderful exttremes of
temperature that can be experienced through the 18-gauge skin of a grounded
aircraft, even in this country.” A problem with actual modular homes made of
the same material, I should think! John C. Bray thinks that the Government
needs to be giving more surplus material away, given how much of it is rotting
away in dumps around the country before it can even be considered for sale. A
Civil Scientist critiques I. G. Henry’s critique of Mr. Perring. G. E. 4279
thinks that skilled men are being treated shabbily in reconversion. J. S.
Stanesly of the Aeonautical Engineers’ Association lectures “Miss (or Mrs.)
Patricia Parker” on the subject of ground engineers, skill, experience,
dilution, and trade union certification in a tone that he will probably regret
taking with his wife some day.
 |
| This is the "couch on the curb" case. You can have it. You just have to haul it away from where it is! |
The Economist, 8
December 1945
Leaders
“Vote of Censure” The debate on the Vote of Censure
introduced on Wednesday is to be held on Thursday, by which time the paper will
have gone to press. Therefore, it can’t say anything useful, but, as my wife
never tires of pointing out, that doesn’t mean that it won’t say something. Specifically, the minor
speakers on Wednesday were on about “whether complete socialism or complete
free enterprise would the more quickly ruin the country, instead of the more
relevant question of what mixture of the two will most quickly rescue it.” The paper thinks that there is not enough of that
special mixture in evidence: not enough on manpower, not enough on housing, not
enough on export policy or the “grand economic question” of the proper balance
between domestic consumption, exports and re-equipment. Thus, the Government has
no defence against accusations that it likes austerity for its own sake, or
against the anti-rationing campaign in the popular press. Also, there is sometimes too much nationalisation, in other cases too little. Also, since during the war, aircraft were produced more cheaply in
Britain than in America, British cars should be cheaper, not more expensive. The paper thinks
that it is because there are too many models, produced at too many factories.
So the Government should do something. And, in summary, that's what the Vote of Censure should be about.
“The Russian Case” The breakdown of the London Conference
has led President Truman to suggest that there should be no further Big Three
meetings. But, the paper points out, that’s all there was to the “constitution”
of the Alliance. Truman wants “open diplomacy,” but that can't just mean publishing diplomatic
notes to Russia before a response has been received. Everyone has to get the same treatment, which they haven't, This leads the Russians to think that they are being frozen out by their Allies. The western Allies reply, yes, but what
about Rumania and Bulgaria? Russia replies, what about Italy, France and Greece,
where pressure has been put to retain
right-wing governments? They also think that a shift in power in the United
Nations from the Security Council to the General Assembly is a device to secure
a permanently out-voted Russia. So, the paper asks, what is our Russian policy?
“The Dollar Loan” Unthnkably, we’ve stopped talking about
talking about a dollar loan, and moved on actually having one. Will it pass
Parliament? It has unpopular provisions, together with Bretton Woods, but “it
is unthinkable for Britain to be estranged from both of its major allies at one
time.” So it’s all back to Russia! Perhaps the paper is hoping that Comrade
Stalin will save us from Bretton Wood? No, the paper concludes, after a few more rounds about, the
dollar loan is inevitable. Though we can be rude about it. Being rude and ungrateful is super diplomacy! The paper also says there is no certainty that we can go off exchange controls. Which is perversely good news for us, if they come back.
“Jugoslav Republic”
It turns out that running the country and having the army is a decisive advantage, after all, as
the Jugoslav “Karageorgevich” dynasty falls in favour of the “Federal People’s
Republic of Jugoslavia.” Now the new dynasty must commision a history of the old, to show how and when it lost the Mandate of Heaven. If
you’re wondering, it is because King Alexander was a cruel and anti-Federalist
tyrant, and while Mencius says nothing about federalism, I gather that Messrs.
Hamilton and Madison added it to the
Mandate of Heaven recently. (Though I should probably leave these references to
my wife, whose Five-Legged education far exceeds my own.)
 |
| I'm honestly not sure what Master Meng would have made of the Karageorgevichs. |
Notes of the Week
“The Wehrmacht in the British Zone” The Russians are upset
that a half-million German prisoners in
the British Zone remain under military organisation. (Although with two million
already released, the BZ is doing a better job of demobilising than the Atlee
Government!) Also, there is a “skeleton staff.” The BZ says that this staff is
facilitating demobilisation. The Russians say that it is a contravention of the
Potsdam Agreement, since it is hiding the germ of a future German General
Staff, etc etc. The paper points out that the British authorities must respect
the letter as well as the spirit of the Potsdam agreement, lest they be seen to
be promoting the anti-Russian policy of European revanchists, who cannot wait to unleash a denazified Wehrmacht on the Russians. The paper thinks that the
Russians have a point, and for both sides, “It is high time for the Allies to
abandon the magnifying glasses of suspicion as the chosen instrument of
political reconnaissance.”
“American and Russian Policy in China” General Hurley’s
resignation and violent denunciation of
the Reds-under-the-Beds-of-the-State-Department has been a “nine days wonder”
in America. General Marshall’s appointment is supposed to reconcile left and
right in America, and save face in China. Russian policy is hard to discern, as
they seem to be ready to be complaisant with Yennan and Chungking, which is now to be permitted to airlift its troops
into Manchuria after all. Is it possible that the Russians don’t actually care
that much, and just want to demobilise their men in time for the spring ploughing?
“The FBI Co-operates” Sir Clive Bailleu, President of the
Federation of British Industries, gave a speech in Manchester calling for some
kind of cooperation with the government’s nationalisation programme.
“Reassurance to India” Britain reassures India that it is
going. Given lack of progress in an Indian settlement, this might be taken to
imply that the British will soon set a date and go, settlement or no. The paper
thinks that this would be a mistake, unless the Government is willing to
countenance a civil war in India. So we’re back to the “Never leave until
everything is ready" position. . .
“Holland and the Indies” And then there are the Dutch, still
trying to get back so that they can leave later. There are now “eight to ten
thousand Dutch troops” quartered around Penang and Singapore, and the Dutch
have asked for permission to ship them to Java, “If it were possible to do so,
without adding grist for the nationalists’ mill.” The Dutch say that they want
a “free Indonesian commonwealth within the Dutch kingdom,” which the
Indonesians are fine with as long as it translates into complete independence,
to which the Dutch answer that, if it did, they wouldn’t have gone to all the
trouble of making up a euphemism. Although, to be fair, there are the 200,000 Dutchh said to still be in the Javan camps. My information is that the camps did not take anywhere near all the "Europeans," and the camps are actually much smaller, but my information may be better than the paper's, under the circumstances.
“Azerbaijan Again” I do not think I have to say any more,
except to note the paper’s bland denial that Sayyid Zita is “Britain’s
reactionary candidate” to replace Prime Minister Hakimi.
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| Another underphotographed war. This Youtube video may clarify whether we are looking at Iranian, Kurdish or Azerbaijani troops. |
“Reform in France” The French are nationalising their banks,
and are thinking about larger-scale nationalisation.
“Help for the Poorer Authorities” Local government in poorer
parts of the country need help from London snore.
“Agricultural Safeguards” The only way of preventing the return of the Corn Laws is by having a National Agricultural Advisory Service to achieve full
technical efficiency. And lower wages.
“Too Many Trees” If only the Corn Laws had covered timber,
we could probably paste an article from an 1846 number into this space, too.
“Atlantic Airline Fares” Pan-American has backed down from
its proposed $275 “cheap” fare ($495 return, in case you are thinking that BOAC is practicing piracy) under a threat to have the three services a week
recently added, revoked, reducing it to two, while American Overseas runs
seven, and BOAC twelve, both at $375 or more. American opinion is that the
British are protecting BOAC’s high cost business. The paper scolds the
Government.
“Report from Poland” The paper finds this report from the
British embassy far too critical of Poland’s new democracy.
“In Court at Nuremberg” The indictments continue.
“Land Settlement in Kenya” The paper likes provisions for
dealing with soil erosion, but is unhappy with the idea of settling yet another
500 European farmers in the colony. It has not been profitable in the past. Is
the Kenyan Government prepared to subsidise it indefinitely? Because there is a
huge difference between tolerating the White farmers already there, and adding
another 500. The scheme will “stand or fail on whether Kenya’s land is being used economically and in the best interests of the African.”
In Shorter Notes, I mainly notice a continuing increase in
road accidents, with fatalities in October rising to 534 from 487, seriously injured
from 2,694 to 3,249, and 117 child pedestrians killed, the highest number ever
recorded. It is blamed on the end of summer time, but the longer hours of
daylight in May apparently also caused more deaths. “Black-out, dim-out,
daylight and lights up –all in turn seem to be accompanised by a mounting total
of road casualties, especially among children.”
American Survey
“The War Over Zionism” From our Correspondent in Ohio
The twenty-eight anniversary of the Balfour Declaration was
apparently a stormy one for American Jews, who are not nearly as united behind
Zionism as others think, says OCO, who
possesses special information, evidently. I hope it is of better quality than the
observation that a 150,000 strong Zionist rally at Madison Square Gardens was
no big deal, since “New York holds half of the 5 million Jews in the United
States.”
 |
| Big deal. Lots of people aren't here! |
It turns out that his special information is based on the Jewish
community of Cincinnati, 20,000 Jews out of a population of 500,000. This has a
“more typical cross-section of Jewish reaction to the Zionist programme.” At
this point, OCO reveals a real gift for writing for The Economist by taking a long and leisurely walk around the facts,
to finally arrive at the observation that many of the Reform sect, which is
particularly strong in Cincinnati, are not Zionists. He then explains why
no-one should be Zionists. (Palestine is so small that twelve million Jews
couldn’t stand there without their shoulders rubbing together. They should all
come to America instead, and there should not be a Jewish state in Palestine,
because the Christians and Arabs would feel left out, and go sulk –which is
hard when there is no room for sulking!) He then says, and repeatedly repeats
his repetitive point that the Reform Jews are altogether the richest, most
educated, most advanced and best dressed of all of Cincinatti’s (America's) Jews, which is
why they would be right, even were they not right. In fact, Reform Jews are so
outstanding that they also lead the Zionist movement (somewhat), which isn’t a
contradiction, because the divide isn’t on sect, only it is. In summary, the only way to resolve the Zionist issue is to
let in enough Arab migrants into America to neutralise the Zionist vote.
American Notes
“100 Days and After” After a hundred days, you’re allowed to
criticise the President. Who stinks. Even though in the first 100 days 3.5
million have been demobilised (5 million are expected in the next hundred),
plant clearance is at 93% completed, with pre-war plants 85% reconverted;
military buying is down from 90% to 10” “in twelve months;” controls, except
for sugar and tyres, are off; retail sales are up 10%, and the cost of living
is down 0.3% (Ha! Says Judith.) The reason he stinks is that Mr. Walllace made
a statement before the House Appropriation Committee to the effect that due to
the withdrawal of $40 billion of Government demand, unemployment would be up to
6 million in twelve months. Over and above the problem of avoiding the
post-1950 slump, there is the question of the $25 billion in wages withdrawn
from the working population, even as cuts in war taxes leave business in a
“comfortable position.” The paper wonders whether Mr. Wallace is even a member
of the Administration.
There's no real difference between Truman and Dewey! So vote Wallace, because what's the worst that could happen?
“McCarran Tries Again” The paper thinks that the
Pan-American fare reduction was engineered by Trippe to give McCarren a chance
to reintroduce his “All American Flag Line” bill.
 |
| I love my Surface. The camera's a bit of an afterthought, though. |
“Wool Stocks and Imports” At the head, I had some comments
on the problem of liquidating our sheep lands to your satisfaction. I won’t add
to my comments there, or for that matter to the detailed accounts below. I will
add that the article gives no comfort. American consumption is estimated at 750
million lb, American production is at 400-450 million lb, and the current world
surplus is 5000 million lb, produced at lower costs. Growers would like the
tariff continued, to keep American imports at the margin between American
production and consumption. (Although another plan, by an official at the
University of Wyoming, has the American government buying the entire American
clip, adding to it the necessary imports, and then selling it at a price
calculated to remunerate the growers.) Everyone else just wants the tariffs
gone entirely, with perhaps some subsidies to artificially buoy up those
growers in the small Mountain states who can’t find any other use for their
land. I’m not saying that flooding our pastures, with either water or trailer
homes, is a “better” use, but it does get us out of this dying business!
The Business World
“The State as Manager” The paper looks into its crystal ball
to see the future of nationalisation, sees a blur of words, in which I discern
“technical” and “administrative."
“Security Profits and Prejudices” I suspect that you have
read this with enough care that you do not need my opinion.
Business Notes
“Encouragement from Washington” News of the loan buoys the
Stock Exchange.
Follows two notes on housing, licensing and planning, again things
you know better than I. I shan’t continue our campaign to persuade you that
demand for housing is likely to be
higher than forecast, even if Grace has highlighted implications of
higher-than-expected population growth with an “I told you so” flare. Follows
that, three bits on the French bank nationalisation. It almost makes me wish
that we knew a few furious ducs and comtes eager to make their francs flee to
Frisco. I’m sorry about the vulgar character. It alliterated before I
translated it.
“Nationalisation for Gas” It really seems that everyone ison about scientific research these days. Nationalisation, amongst other things
discussed in a pretty long “note,” is the formation of a Gas Research Board
with a £200,000/year budget.
“Overseas Trade Pointers” It might seem that the 47%
increase in the last year was good news, but there are ways of seeing it as
terrible.
“Finding the 50 Percent” So where are we to find the 50%
increase in British exports? Dairy, tobacco, artificial silk and chemicals have
been strong. Coal, non-ferrous ores and scrap, wool, oilseeds, resins and gum,
iron and steel, machinery, cotton, woollens, vehicles, locomotives, ships,
aircraft and autos are all discouraging, and the 50%, and the hope of dollar
independence, is but a rosy dream.
The paper also notes that the Bank of England
nationalisation has been revised to better keep bank accounts secret, that the
price of lead might be going up, and that General Lindsell, in his capacity as
head of the Disposals Executive, admits that Disposals are being BUNGLED. Also,
there is a shortage of foundry labour, and the international aluminum cartel is
being disbanded due to the enormous increase in production and consumption and
disappearance of the German and Hungarian industries making the 1936 market
sharing arrangement completely obsolete.
Flight,
13 December 1945
“The Navy that Flies” The recent
landing and take-off trials of a de Havilland Vampire on a carrier deck shows
that the Navy is now very airminded, whereas it might or might not have been in
the past. (Circle one or the other as to your taste vis-Ã -vis air force versus
navy.)
“Jets and Decks” Vampires have very
low wing loading, and so do not need catapults, but, on the other hand, have
very poor low speed pickup, as do all current jet fighters, making them very
dangerous to “wave off.” The Vampire’s very large flaps mean that it can come
in fairly hot, with the flaps down to mitigate speed, and then rapidly raise
the flaps to pick up enough thrust to make it around again. Power Jets is
experimenting with thrust spoilers for the same effect, which, as developed,
might even allow for negative thrust. Using jets on carriers will rule out
wooden decks, and will eliminate the need for a warming-up period.
“Tail Screws” A Douglas XB-42 bomber
type has recently flown Los Angeles-Washington at an average speed of 430mph.
This once again demonstrates the aerodynamic potential of the tail-mounted
airscrew, although the paper does not think it worth the extra weight, although
the point of this is to advertise the upcoming DC-8, and in an airliner noise
reduction may compensate.
“Two of a Trio: The Bristol
Buckingham Fast Day or Night Bomber and the Brigand Long-range Attack
Monoplane” Now that they’ve been mentioned, and pictured, the paper supposes
that it is time to talk about these new Bristol aircraft. Or not so new, in the
Buckingham’s case. It was developed as a Blenheim replacement, with the thought
that, as a fast day bomber, it might make daylight raids against German heavy
industry, back when the Blenheims of 2 Group were making those gingerly raids
into the Low Countries. However, by the time the Buckingham was in quantity
production, radar-assisted night bombing was in full swing, the Mosquito was in
production, and the only real use for it
was as a transport. I would also note that the country was swimming in
American medium bomber twins, and while the Buckingham might have been a bit
faster with twin Centauruses, it was hardly a big difference. Meanwhile, the
use of the Beaufighter in the coastal strike role led to the thought that, just
as the Beaufort had led to the Beaufighter, the Buckingham might lead to a
replacement for the Beaufort. At this point things got a bit more ambitious, as
a picture showing the Brigand’s enormous dive brakes indicates. Presumably, the
dive brakes have all the automatic actuators and interconnections that so
impressed the industry when the Do 215 was captured, back in 1942.
Unfortunately, we ran out of Japanese to dive bomb before the design was ready
for service. Perhaps someone will volunteer to be dive-bombed when they are ready.
Roy Fedden, “German Jet
Developments: Big Production Before the Collapse: Ingenious Designs to Overcome
Material Shortages: Insistence on Axial-Flow Arrangement” German jets were more
numerous than ours, but had inferior performance, largely because of lack of
strategic alloys. Improved cooling was sought with hollow turbine blades with
internal air flow, which amazed British engineers, but probably didn’t actually
work that well in practice, given compressor stall problems. The engines were
extremely easy to make, once production was ramped up, a new engine being
assembled in about 50 hours. Fedden thinks that the BMW 003 was the better
design.
“The Post-War Gipsy” A new range of
the small de Havilland aero-engines are coming to a lawnmower near you.
Flt. Lt. Gordon White, A.R.Ae.S.,
“Cockpit Classification: Four main Groups: More Logical Cockpit Drill: Colour
and Positioning Grouping of Instruments and Controls” Flt. Lt White has strong
and well-argued opinions about how the controls and instruments in a cockpit
should be arranged.
In an ad, Martin reminds “Over Ocean
Airlines” that the Martin Mars exists.
A full article on the deck trials of
the Sea Vampire follows. Captain Caspar John’s HMS Ocean was the trial ship, with Lt. Cdr. E. M. Brown as the
pilot. You may not know the names –well, I expect his father has mentioned Captain John to you!-- , but the Admiralty is doing its best to signal that it is
Very Serious Indeed about this. To the Vampire’s other virtues as a jet deck
trial unit, the article adds its all-up weight of 8000lbs, compare with the
13,000 being reached by the current generation of naval fighters.
“Indicator,” “Hampden and Hereford:
Two Early British ‘Heavies’ in the Series of Handling Impressions” Hardly
anyone remembers the Hampden, because it wasn’t much of a bomber, but Indicator
remembers that it was a nice aircraft in the air. The handling of the Heresford
–the Dagger-powered variant—was even more forgiving. Unfortunately, the engine
tended to overheat on the ground, and the high engine speed characteristic of
those unconventional Napier engines tended to give the crews “MTB ear.”
“Photo Reconnaissance: Peacetime
Occupations of the P.R. Squadrons: Big Tasks in Hand” Why can no-one get film
and other photographic equipment? Because the old PR squadrons have launched
massive projects of aerial surveying, of all Canada, all India, all Indo-China.
The paper notes that PR is a
“Cinderella” of the RAF. Poor RAF, all Cinderella, no evil step-sisters! Its
proof of this is that photoreconnaissance’s highest man in the Air Ministry is
Deputy Director Group Captain F. C. V. Laws. The article ends by advising us
that “there is no doubt that British lenses are the world’s best.”
Here
and There
US Postmaster-General R. E. Hannigan
is exploring a halving of air mail rates. The ATC is to receive only 8 captured
German gliders, as German flying clubs might want the rest, and suddenly there
is no objection to giving to them. One Mr. Rowarth is leaving the Air Ministry
to return to Automotive Products of Leamington. The Red Air Force’s transport
command will be turned over entirely to civil aviation next year. Avro is
exploring setting up a subsidiary in Australia. The RAF’s Sikorsky R-4B and R-6
helicopters will be known as the Hoverfly I and II in British service. The RAF
will be out of Iceland by March.
Civil
Aviation News
Two pages of not-news. Contracts
placed for runway extensions in Ireland, DC-3s going to Tata Airlines, an
anniversary celebration of something-or-other at Prestwick. . . Fairey
demonstrates how oil tankers were converted into Merchant Aircraft Carriers,
which is admittedly not actually civil aviation news, but rather appended at
the bottom of the page.
“Lancaster Group Celebrate: Avro
Dinner to Mark Completion of Lancaster Bomber Production” 7,336 Lancasters were
delivered to the RAF, over half by the parent company. In the peak month of
August 1944, 293 Lancasters were delivered in a single month, said Mr. Dobson,
who went on to suggest that, post-war, we should be looking at “five hour hops”
as the target to aim for, and that speed was the important thing for air
transport, since economy, comfort and security could be better provided by
other means of transport. Air Chief Marshal Harris, who could not be present
due to illness, and also because we’ve decided to blame him for wrecking
Europe, sent a nice message.
Correspondence
B. E. J. Garmeson writes several paragraphs to expand on the
idea that nationalisation is bad. G. W. Buckingham has opinions about war
decorations. “Stressman” points out that the Meteor’s achievement of 0.8 Mach
is not unprecedented, and that a Spitfire had recently achieved .92 in a
controllable dive at RAE. The paper points out that it has said that already,
that the number was actually 0.85, and that you cannot compare dives at high
altitude to level flights near the ground, and that the Spitfire is, in fact,
under uncontrollable nose-down characteristics at that speed. J. H. Stevenson,
General Secretary of the Aeronautical Engineers’ Association, writes a much
kinder and more polite reply to Patricia
Parker, expanding on the AEA’s problem, which is that aeronautical engineers
trained after 1939 are being denied Air Ministry certificates available to all
mechanical engineers trained before 1939. Reading between the lines, I think
that this is to provide jobs for returning RAF groundcrew, which is a very
contentious issue for union men on both sides of the Atlantic right now.
The Economist, 15 December 1945
Leaders
“Second Thoughts” Most of this article is going to be
devoted to the loan, which is keen news, as it’s a beautiful, sunny afternoon
in Santa Clara, and I was thinking about walking the twins down to
Great-Grandfather’s tree. (As you may recall
from Grace’s letters, it probably won’t be with us very much longer. Sigh. I wonder if the thought went through Rohmer's mind, for the least second, that night in Limehouse, that the "sinister figure" he was looking at liked to push his great-grandchildren on a swing at the bottom of an orange orchard?) As
for the paper, its second thoughts are very second thought-y.
“A Government for Germany?” The Americans want some kind of
German secretariat to coordinate the zones. The Russians are likely to be
opposed. France’s position, pro or con, will be overridden. It is left to
Britain to somehow find middle ground where it can maintain the Four Power
Agreement and get this government,
which it wants. That seems impossible, but, along the way, it will be possible
to tweak de Gaulle’s beak, which is almost as good.
“The Trade Proposals” A leading article on what it is that
the paper has “Second Thoughts” about.
“Safer Railways” To mass carnage on the roads we can now add
a spate of rail accidents. The Bourne derailment will add heavily to the good
record of the war years (4 in 1943, 12 In 1944; unbelievable figures from an
American point of view), and the Ecclefechan collision would have added still
more, but for good luck. The steady fall in railway fatalities has clearly been
reversed by the war. The block system, and its concomitant track circuiting,
has contributed to this decline. So has power light signalling, but automatic
control will be even better as it is extended from London Transport as either
the GWR or Hurd system, which are really “warning control” systems in which an
open signal sounds warning bells and hooters in the cabin, and energises the
brakes unless the engineer interrupts. The paper admits that there is a limit
to the amount that can be spent for safety, but thinks that automatic control
should be extended.
Notes of the Week
“Before the Moscow Meeting” Hopefully the Moscow meeting
will thaw out things, because no-one wants World War III. Grace interjects, for
her day bed, upon which she has just arrived, “No matter how exciting it would
be!”
“Food For Germany” Mr. Hynd is not optimistic about achieving
1500 calories per German per day this winter. The British public want to help,
but this poses a dilemma, as Britain is importing food itself, but the paper
still thinks that Sir Ben Smith is “going to absurd lengths” to make sure that
British food reserves are not depleted by an increased allotment to the
continent.
“The Palestine Commission” It is hoped that the Palestinians
will be taken in hand by the Egyptian and Saudi Arabian governments and kept
from making emotional interventions before the new Council as it settles
everything.
“The Docker’s Minimum” The increase in the docker minimum
wage is bitterly disappointing to the rank and file, so the paper is warming to
it.
“The Rate of Release” The paper is pleased to hear that
there is to be a reduction in the delay of release of army officers. (This
means more being released?) As for the rank and file, the paper finds
contradictions in recent statements as to whether and how the armed forces are
to be reduced to 2.2 million by next June, or, on the other hand, 1.2 million.
BUNGLING!
“The Manpower Position”
“The Indonesian Tragedy” Where previously British policy in
Indonesia was to disarm the Japanese and release prisoners of war and
detainees, it is now to “recover Japanese arms,” which means, in effect, to
disarm the Indonesians. “There will be fighting ahead, ugly, difficult
fighting, before Java can be ‘pacified.’” “The
end is not in doubt, but the way will be bitter,” the troops were told, as they
marched off to invade –I’m sorry. Where have we heard this before? The
objective, of course, is in no way to crush Indonesian nationalism or frustrate
Indonesian aspirations. It is only to get rid of all the collaborators and
leave only “moderates.” Eentually, given enough tanks and rocket-firing
aircraft, we can be confident that Java will be as peaceful and moderate as
India is now.
Yes, I'm a bit skeptical.
 |
| Elizabeth Butler, Remnants of an Army |
“The Site of UNO” If it’s in America, it will cost dollars.
The paper is hoping for “the large capital city and cultural centre of a small
state enjoying first-class communications.” So not San Francisco, then.
“Convention for Newfoundland” The way in which Newfoundland
is governed is an important issue, it turns out.
“Mr. Bevan and the Doctors” It turns out that the minister
and the British Medical Association have been skirmishing over the national
health plan.
“Nationalising the Land by Installments” Surely there are
limits to what Parliament can do? “The Labour Government is clinging to the
idea . . . that development can be effectively controlled without
nationalisation” The paper is skeptical.
“Universities and Teachers’ Training” Some members of the
McNair Committee on the Training of Teachers think universities should have
colleges for training teachers’ trainers, that is, be in charge of
“supervising” teacher’s colleges. Others think that there should be a
“machinery of coordination.” Whatever the outcome, given that the long-term
need will be 30,000—45,000 student teachers in training at any given time, and
the size of the teachers’ colleges, about half of university students in the
future will be teacher trainees. So the Butler Act implies a very great
change in the universities.
“The Greek Troubles” The Greeks ae back to being excitable.
(So also the Italians and Hungarians.)
“Cost Plus” The cost plus system of paying for war damage
repairs is to be ended. It was good while it lasted, I am sure I hear you
saying. “A system of firm prices is to be substituted.” The real hope is for more competitive bids for
tender as more men come out of the Forces.
Shorter Notes
Lord Wavell’s comments on the explosive situation in India
were “intended to reinforce the Government’s strong words.” Although the paper
doesn’t believe that the British will just withdraw, and imagines that Indians
don’t believe it, either. Of course not. The Indians believe that the British
will find some excuse to never leave! Also, the paper is disappointed (“happy,”
Grace corrects) about the strikes in New South Wales, which show that Mr.
Curran’s government has no grip.
American Survey
“The Creditor” Americans are as unhappy about the loan
agreement from their point of view as the British are from theirs. The paper thinks
that the Colmer Committee could have done a better job.
“Full Employment?” Congress has been happily marking up the
Murray Bill to remove all of its teeth, but cannot bear not to pass something under the title of “Full
Employment” in an election year which may see 8 million unemployed. It just has
to be ineffectual. Certainly it cannot be so outlandish as, for example, to
mandate the running of a budget deficit if full employment cannot be achieved
any other way, as the Murray Bill does.
“Republicans at Chicago”
The Republican National Committee met in Chicago to put together an
election platform. Since it can’t really agree on a platform that will draw water in ’46, it has agreed instead to focus on negative criticism
and obstruction in Congress to prevent the Administration from accomplishing
anything.
“The Treasury Loses Six Billions” The paper is very happy to
point out that, with none of the wailing over the loan to the British, the
Treasury is happily giving up 6 billions in tax reductions. “Mr. Vinson
proposed $5,175 million;” the House Appropriations Committee increased it
to $5,305 million; the Senate bid 5.788, and a joint committee of the two
houses compromised on $5.92 billions. $2,784 millions comes out of individual taxes,
$3.136 billion from corporate rates. The paper thinks that this is an odd way
to stimulate consumption, and points out its similarity to the British package,
which is put forward as a way of increasing investment. It is almost
as though cuts on the taxes paid by the rich (upon which subject I’m a bit
torn, I will admit on threat of a thrown pillow from the distaff side of this
sunny study. But what else is a throw pillow for?) are justified by whatever
need arises.
“Houses on Paper” The Wager-Ellender Bill, which promises to
resolve the housing problem in one sweeping act, remains on paper only, and
will not reach the Senate this session. It was said, the paper shakes its head
mournfully, that home building would be the salvation of reconversion, that it
would be to this war what the automobile was to the last. But shortages of
construction materials, and the industry’s resistance to price controls, have
“dimmed the outlines of the fine plans” of the past. 1.25 million homes are
needed, but only 4 to 500,000 are expected. At least 3.4 million city families,
and one million farm families must be prepared to share their homes in 1946,
the National Housing Administrator, Mr. Blandford, warns. Real estate prices
are soaring, and, the paper concludes, only a “federal plan” can save the day.
“The ‘Rich Port’” Puerto Rico suffered direly during the war
from the lack of shipping, although its brith rate went up. It is thought that
there will be a referendum on independence soon. No, these two thoughts are not
really related. They’re just the two things the paper knows about Puerto Rico
in recent years.
The World Overseas
“Revolution in Brazil” Latins are excitable.
“After the Cocoa Crisis –I” By Our Accra Correspondent
As near as I can tell, the marketing board offered too low a
price for cocoa, and there was a “hold up,” which is a labour action, but it is not clear that the hold up was caused by the
price offered, or by concerns that the payments for the last crop had not been
remitted to the Gold Coast yet.
The Business World
“Can Sterling be Freed?” Apart from the political difficulty
of negotiating with Britain’s largest creditor of all, the Government of India,
the paper has its doubts, but concedes that the loan is necessary. Damned if
you do, damned if you don’t.
“Asia’s Rice Famine” Is finally noticed.
So: Asia consumes 95% of the world’s rice, and the cropaveraged 95 million tons of cleaned rice (151 million tons of paddy) in1935—40. In the last year of the war, the crop was at 90—95% of average prewar
output, but, this included a
significant increase in American and Latin American production. This could not
offset the decline in production of the principal exporting countries: Burma,
Siam and French Indo-China, which could not export due to the Japanese
occupation. Prewar eports were estimated at 8.3 million tons: 3 million from
Burma, 1.5 million each from Siam and French Indo-China. China, British Malaya,
the Philippines and Indonesia all imported rice. A shortage of rice exports to
Europe followed, but they were irrelevant to total European needs. More
pressing was the loss to India, where cleaned rice production rose from 25.4
million tons in 1937—42 to 31.3 million tons in 1943—44. Unfortunately, the
yield fell to 27.7 million tons next year, still above the pre-war average, but not enough to prevent
the famine. Acreage increased by 10%, “increasing production, but not enough to
make up for the increasing population.” Throwing in a dig about the Indian
proclivity to breed doesn’t seem to help the analysis here, but what do I know?
Only 160,000 tons of imports have been found for India since capitulation, so
the crisis continues. British statistics for this year’s total crop and the
stockpile, if any, are “vague.” Japan increased its crop, and storage capacity
during the war, but nothing similar is possible in the monsoon countries, so it
is thought that no significant surplus will be foud. It is thought that India,
Malaya and Ceylon will need significant imports, that the Philippines and
Indonesia will need temporary help, that Korea and Formosa will see their crops
decline, and that even Australia has had a setback due to drought. The only
hope of easing the situation is, apparently, the small Western Hemisphere surplus.
Under Business Notes,
another of those bits about “cheap money” which are impenetrable to a
non-banker. Something to do with the loan, the paper goes on? There has been
progress in the distressed areas, ICI has a new plant going in on Teeside. The
Northeast is, in general, recovering quickly, South Wales not so fast. Wages
are going up in the building trades, hopefully helping with the “black market”
for construction labour. It turns out that the Malayan tin industry did not
fade away into ruin and wreckage when the Whites left, after all. The Swiss
report that their banks hold fr. 1000 million in German assets; the Swedes kr.
480 million. Various explanations are put forward as to why these are not
actually large numbers, and why nothing urgent need be done.
At which point –hurrah! A massive insert on the loan begins.
I am off into the sunshine, and Grace to dreamland under the gentle
ministrations of the Lady of Mercy. Or a carefully-measured portion of
morphine, Dr. Rivers having had some experiences at Iwo Jima of which he grimly
says, the less said the better.
Aviation, December
1945
Down the Years in AVIATION’s Log
Twenty five years ago, Captain Corliss C. Moseley won the
Pulitzer Prize in a Verville-Packard biplane at 178mph.
Airmail flies 116,023
miles a month at 63 cents per mile. The Pacific Fleet plans a record 66500 mile
seaplane trip to Panama, and Zeppelin builds a four-engined transport plane.
Fifteen years ago, the nine month output of American aircraft companies was
2,154 aircraft. Ford reports that its private air freight service
Detroit-Chicago and Detroit-Cleveland-Buffalo had flown 10 million lbs of cargo
over five years. Ten years ago, German military aircraft production was set at
3000 per year. The RAF sent aircrew to the United States for instrument
training, Curtiss-Wright built an amphibian with a nose wheel, Kellet produced
the first wingless autogiro, and the Naval Aircaft Factory produced the firstXN3N-1 Trainer, powered by the Wright J-5.
Line Editorial
“Controlled Atoms or Controlled Lives” Atomic matters hang
over civilisation’s head like the Sword of Damocles, and the coolest judgement
is needed. This is no time to get hysterical. First, atomic war is futile.
There is no practical means of preventing an atomic attack except the hollow
one of deterrence. An aggressor might succeed through a sneak attack, but it is
more likely that the victim’s atomic weapons, widely dispersed according to
best atomic strategy, would still be used in retaliation. It is true that the
country with the most dispersed population and industry might come out the
better, but there is no guaranteed that the explosion of “twenty thousand
atomic weapons” might not create clouds of poison that would be “fatal to great
masses of population, not only in the country bombed, but perhaps in the country which launched them.” The
peaceful use of atomic power to produce untold amounts of energy is a more
hopeful side of the story, but and any country that makes fissile materials is
at risk of having them fall into the control of “paranoid elements of its own
population” which might well use them, even if atomic bombs were banned. Atomic
bombs can destroy countries, perhaps the world. Only America, Britain and
Canada can make them, so we face the question of either keeping them under our
control, or placing them under international control. The former is impossible.
Other countries will have them soon. That leaves international control as the
only option. Alternatively, there will be an arms race in atomic weapons, and
this “will mean an end of free science, a severe policing and regimentation of
international trade and trade, and innumerable restrictions upon . . .
individual freedoms.” So, instead, first world government, second,
international bans on atomic weapons, third, an end to war. After that, afternoon tea!
Aviation Editorial
“Reconversion to Re-Complacency” We should have an arms
race. Because they’d be hard to start once we need one, so we should start
before we need it. Otherwise, we’ll be doomed by our complacency just like
“Sumer, Greece and Rome,” which also didn’t build enough aircraft when they
didn’t need them, just to have the factories and researchers ready when they
did.
“Here is the Allied Bombing Record” Germany planned to take
over the world with trickery and cunning strategy. Then Britain and America
came along and built enormous numbers of bombers and dropped enormous amounts
of bombs, and levelled all the German cities, which, luckily, had factories in
them that made things like ball bearings. Without ball bearings, Germany,
obviously, lost the war. Some statistics and anecdotes extend the article, all
cribbed from the United States Strategic
Bombing Survey, about which I have heard bitter complaints from the boys in
blue. (They think it gives short shrift to area bombing) but that’s a subject
for another day.
Aviation’s 1945
Annual Maintenance Feature Section, Or, What Will I Do With All My Free Time
 |
| In case you were wondering what you were missing. |
“Construction and Operation of New Injection Carburetor”
The new Stromberg “PS” series single barrel small-plane
injection carburetor is described.
C. E. Pappas and G. Harrison, “Analyzing the Aspects of
Future Flight, Part II”
Once above Mach 1.2, aircraft will experience less
instability due to air flows. However, enormous amounts of power will be
required: 12,000hp (thrust) to achieve Mach 2.0 at 50,000ft in a plane of 6 ft
fuselage diameter. Assuming a wing loading of 100lb/sq ft to give a wing area
of 300sq ft, the total goes up to 15,000hp. Since the plane will melt trying to
go Mach 2.0 at lower altitudes, there is not much point in working out the
numbers much below 50,000ft. And besides, once we’re talking about high
altitudes, we can go on about the acceleration required to reach orbit, the
possibility of aircraft heating by the “recombination of ions” from the ionised
belt of the atmosphere, and, as near as I can tell, the heat a plane flying
that high might receive from the reflected solar flux.
Speaking of complete wastes of paper, Ernest G. Stout,
“Landing Analyses for Flying Boats an Seaplanes,” Part III Flying boats aren’t
allowed to skip on landing any more.
B. C. Boulton, Engneering Divisional Staff, Douglas Aircraft
Corporation, “Standards Engineer Still Faces High Hurdles” Did you know that R.
R. Richolt, a Lockheed hydraulic and mechanical staff engineer, designed a
standard aircraft bearing pulley t replace some 300 special pulleys developed
to replace the previous standard, the unsatisfactory AN210 series? An extensive
discussion of bearing pulleys underlines why standards engineers are much more
important members of the engineering staff then some might think. That is
because the standards engineer might develop a new standardisation that is
better than the old one, although he probably won’t, because that’s not
actually his job.
“Beech Marketing C-P Props for Low Horsepower Ranges” In
case you’re wondering, they were made for AAF liaison aircraft to further
improve their short-field takeoff performance. Although you probably weren’t
wondering. I’m just at a bit of a loss as to what need for them there would be
on the civilian market.
K. H. Holmgren, Associate Director, Aviation Institute of
Professional Sales Training, “Open Home Sales School for Dealers-Distributors”
For a limited time only, take a course on salesmanship from this man!
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| I can either make fun of this picture, or link to some class WKRP. I choose the latter, because I have class. |
“Floatplane Bases Cut Expenses and Time” Oh, Good God.
“New Voyager Four-Placer Delivered by Stinson”
“Here’s Bumblebee-Powered Soarer” (The Nelson Bumblebee has
a 4 cylinder, 16 hp engine, which you can put in a glider or a lawnmower.
“Firebrand and Lincoln ‘Up’ RAF Might” Here are two
planes you’ve heard of before.
James B. Rea, “Consairway Sharpens Convair Peace Designs”
‘Consairway” was Convair’s private wartime long-range overseas transport
organisation. Convair learned something about operating an airline by operating
an airline, and now has ideas about how to build airliners.
Raymond L. Hoadley, “Airline Earnings Peak Six Months Off?”
Because of tax changes, maybe. So that’s a short-term airline earnings peak,
only.
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| Pictures make everything clearer. |
“Bellcrank Production Boosted by Switching Weld Location”
More exciting news about the Martin Mariner. Even more exciting than
“Production Costs ‘Clipped’ with Clips”
Sideslips
“Funny” story about a man who fell out of a fuselage door
that popped open during a flight over the Hump. Fortunately, the crewman was
wearing a parachute. Now this is funny: a recent survey suggests that none of
the 300,000 military pilots need to look for work in other fields. Ninety
thousand want to stay in the service (says the survey!), and the other 210,000
can look forward to the 10,000 new airline pilot jobs available by 1950, among
other opportunities.
Aviation News
“Leaders Drive to Unify Our Military Forces: Success Likely
Despite Navy Opposition;” “Billion Dollar Airport Bill Ready for Signing;”
“Symington Heads SPA: Faster Action Seen” That last needs some explanation,
which is that Bill Symington is expected to Get Things Done at the Surplus
Property Administration. We also have news of the existence of the Boeing
XF8B-1 Navy fighter, which has a 3600hp six-blade contra-rotating propeller and
can carry a 6400lb bomb load or two torpedoes, in addition to six .50s or six
20mm cannon. Now they just need a carrier that will float it.
 |
| Normal takeoff weight: 21,000lbs. It's only 37,000 for the F-18! |
. . On a saner
note, pictures of the new flying bombs, which might actually exist some day,
appear.
The Washington Windsock
Stubblefield thinks that we shouldn’t be squabbling over
flags when there is a backlog of passengers to be carried over the Atlantic,
that Congress is in danger of diverting too much money from existing planes to
space missiles and other wizardry that won’t be ready for years yet, that “even
the cloistered basic researchers” think that we will soon have airliners faster
than the rotation of the Earth, allowing people to fly westbound at sunset and
remain at sunset for the entire way. (About Mach 1.5, give or take. As see the Pappas article above, this would entail north of 15,000hp of thrust. He also notices the ramjet and proximity
fuze. I notice that there doesn’t
seem to be any reporting in this bit, never mind a pretense tht this is what
“Washington” is thinking. Except for the “space missiles.”
Transport Aviation
“Airline Seat Demand Rockets 25%: Route Mileages at New
High: Get ‘Tide-Over’ Planes” The headline pretty much says it all. The
paper hasn’t heard of Heathrow yet. (That is, the “Worlddata” section has an
extensive complain about Croydon and suggests that no replacement has been
decided upon yet.)
Fortune, December
1945
The Job Before Us
Even though the paper was out too early to hear the news from
China, (Have no fear, I look forward to Time
this month!) it’s still on about General Marshall, in this case, his talk at
the New York Herald Tribune Forum,
where he decried the demoralisation of the army due to rapid demobilisation.
The United States, the paper says, is not interested in “non-intervention.” It
is backing its ally, Chiang Kai Shek, and is “responsible” for the Arabs as
well as the Jews of Palestine. So it needs an army, and therefore conscription.
“Back to the Market” “It was Wendell Willkie who said that
only the strong could be free, and only the productive could be strong.” Which
somehow means that there shouldn’t be a cross-the-board pay hike. The market
can sort it out. More importantly, the paper is still quoting Willkie.
“Stop Fighting the Last Depression” The country hears calls from
Chester Bowles to “hold the line,” because inflation is imminent, and for wage
increases from Mr. Wallace, because deflation is imminent. The paper points out
that it can’t be both. It has to be one or the other, and all signs point to
inflation, not deflation. With tax cuts inevitable, the President must do
something about the Treasury’s cheap money policies, and do what he can to
encourage the fight against excessive wage settlements, or there really will be
serious inflation.
“High Altitudes and Low Rates” The paper doesn’t buy Pan
American, but does think that the industry is probably too young for tariff
scbedules such as the Trans-Atlantic Steamship Conference has.
“Ships are Here to Stay” New passenger liners are being
built, since the day of all trans-Atlantic air travel is still a ways away.
“Iron Ore Dilemma” This is the flip side of The Economist’s fear that
America will enter the market for overseas iron ore. The Mesabi Ranges,
which provided 85% of American ore in the late war, and have supported the
American industry for two generations are being depleted. Director EdwardWilson Davis of the Minnesota Mines’ Experiment Station believes that the
Mesabi’s best ores will be gone by 1950—54. Although, as the paper points out,
iron is the fourth most abundant element in the Earth, good, easily transported
ore bodies are less common. The Mesabi is a typical ocean bed deposit, exposed
to air by the movement of the continents. It is rich, and it is also not
“wrinkled,” as other such deposits are, so that it is easy to mine, needing
only for the surface layer of clay to be scraped away so that steam shovels can
get right at the rich 50% iron content ore. And it’s near the lakehead, and the
Great Lakes basin includes good coking coal. It is thought that there are 500
million tons of ore in the range, and US Steel owns 350 million of them, the
other sixteen companies with an interest sharing the remainder.
 |
| Giant steam shovel |
This is one of those good Fortune articles. It explains benefication and specifically the flotation
techniques, and why Minerals Separation Company has gotten rich from its patents, and why everyone is researching ways around them. Not to mention the Engineer . . . This is also
relevant in that no benefication method has been found that will make the
taconite ore at the eastern edge of the Range commercially viable. If one were
found, the life of the Range would be greatly extended. They also think things
could be improved by cuts on transport costs and by tax breaks. The mining
towns of the range have extended their municipal limits over the ranges,
allowing them to charge an occupation tax that goes to enrich the local
communities at the expense of the iron companies. Hibbing, Minnesota, for
example, is entirely too posh for its inhabitants, and could stand to be taken
down a peg. How this will increase the amount of ore available is another
question entirely.
“The Nurnberg Novelty” The paper disapproves of the war
crimes trials.
“Marshall Field, the Store” I will leave the articles about
department stores to my wife. And duck.
“Reuther: F.O.B. Detroit” Walter Reuther is the
Vice-President of Detroit’s United Automobile, Aircraft, an Implement Workers
of America,” and he has a modest, two-and-a-half story house, paid off, on his
$7000/year salary, and quite a nice hobby workshop. He is also an
“intellectual,” and has “theories.” Now, the main theory he has that anyone
cares about is that his brothers deserve a 30% wage increase from GM, and that
the Fishers can afford it. Reuther explains that wartime advances will
considerably increase productivity on the assembly lines, and someone has to
get the money. Also, he will explain about how “economic democracy” is
preferable to “socialism,” if asked.
“F-hp: Once fractional horsepower engines were merely
laborsavers. Now they make possible new techniques and new Products”
“Small-motor enthusiasts call the second World War the “small-motor war.” Of
course they do. Well, there were 300 fp engines on the B-29, so there’s that.
We’re told that all the new engines use the wonder materials Alnico “discovered
by a Japanese before the war,” and “Silicone,” which is one-third more heat
resistant than the materials it displaces. The electric motor, engineers
believe, coupled with electronic controls, could automate any task men can do.
Ducks again! Women, too. The censorial power of this arrangement is somewhat
diminished by the fact that I have to bring her pillows back to her. So,
anyway, women, too. There is also a shortage of fractional motors, and many new
needs. So this is a good industry to get into.
“Will Clayton’s Cotton, II” There is just too much of
interest in this cotton wholesaler’s business to contain in a single number of
the paper. Or so the paper thinks. Grace suggests that the party that the paper
is trying to wrangle an invite to was put over a month.
“Through the Wringer with A.G. & E.”
Mr. Hopson’s Associated Gas and Electric was placed in
receivership by the New York Federal Court four months ago. It’s a rare company
that manages to fail in the conditions of the last four years, but the seeds of
disaster were sown long before the war –before 1929, actually-- and it turns
out that it was largely because it was a massive fraud involving borrowing on
the utility’s assets. Hopson himself, “shattered” by the collapse of his empire,
is in a Winchester sanatorium, somehow getting by on a $6000 annuity.
“Germany was Badly Run: The Inventors of Total War Were the
Last to Adopt It. Their Administration was Pooe and Dictatorship a Handicap”
Now that the match is lost, it is time for the losers to talk about how their
knees were acting up, John Kenneth Galbraith, recently returned from the
Strategic Bombing Survey tells us.
“The Boom in Ballet” Grace has nodded off again, so there’s
no joy in teasing her about this. All I can say is that Fortune keeps getting odder. I am tolerably certain that we’re not
talking a boom in ticket sales, though.
The Farm Column
“That’s Where the Short Corn Grows” Ladd Haystead is off to
Iowa to interview the tenant farmers of that state, to see how anyone could
possibly mismanage an Iowa corn farm so as to be a tenant farmer at this stage
in the war. Tales of misfortune follow. I’m at a loss for news here, although
the story of the way that German Lutheran pastor Father Durren saved
Westphalia, Iowa, is touching, and there’s a bit about how Iowa has half the
doctors it needs –one for every 1500 occupants, vice a recommended one for 750,
so yet another peacetime shortage to be made up.
Business Abroad
The paper goes to England, where
it visits Rubery Owen, which makes steel products at Darlaston, near
Wolverhampton, and is 70% reconverted. It has sent out fifteen men to India,
Scandinavia, the dominions, Latin America, and the Middle East to drum up
orders. It should probably send them to America (dollar shortage), but I am
guessing that it is too expensive (dollar shortage) Raleigh Cycle Co, which stopped making the
“Rolls Royce of bicycles” to focus on small arms, ammunition and fuzes, needs
access to annealing ovens so it can start making bicycles again. Since he can
sell a hundred bikes for everyone he makes over the next five years, he is not
really worried about sales once he starts actually making them again. Austin
Motors made 600 cars a week for the first months after V-J Day, but that was
with stockpiled parts, and production has now slumped to 130, and the company
could lay off another 6000 workers, having already fallen to 12,000 from a
wartime 19,000 peak if it did not anticipate a pick up. Metropolitan-Vickers is
also struggling to find ways to keep up to wartime production levels, though
fortunately turbine blades and portable generators are in heavy demand,
especially in Russia. Ferranti’s businesses in meters and transformers is back,
but not its domestic appliance line, which never made much money anyway, and
which the Board of Trade would probably not allow it to make, anyway.
Horrockses, Crewdson and Company, the cotton manufacturer, seems mainly
focussed on attracting labour. It promises ideal conditions, but the actual
factory seems to fall short. Boots Pure Drugs Co., Ltd, is obviousy not put out
much by reconversion except for the 100 (out of 1200) stores destroyed by bombs.
It does have concerns about Stafford Cripps refusing to buy sanitary napkins
now that the Lend Lease supply is discontinued. Domestic production is down
40%, and there are already signs of a shortage. Cadbury’s, the other side of
the “cocoa crisis,” is also the other side of the sugar crisis, which is
holding production down to 37% of capacity. It is, however, eying the possibility
of getting into the electrical products business(!)
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| Rubery Owen forklift truck. "Britain's first, launched in 1946." Source: "Bristol 170.31 EI-AFS ALT RWY 1952 edited-2" by RuthAS - Own work. Licensed under CC BY 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bristol_170.31_EI-AFS_ALT_RWY_1952_edited-2.jpg#/media/File:Bristol_170.31_EI-AFS_ALT_RWY_1952_edited-2.jpg |
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| Horrockses: Off the rack fashion from 1946. It's almost like everything isn't doom and futility in Britain in late '45. Source: Anna Battista's Irenebrination |
Books and Ideas
Ferdie Deering’s USDA: Manager of American Agriculture,
puts it that the management of American agriculture is being BUNGLED. Carlton J. Hayes, a history professor who spent three years with the embassy in Spain,
emerges from secrecy with Wartime Mission
to Spain. He finds no evidence of Fascism in Spain, and thinks that while
Franco is bad, he is not that bad, and we shouldn’t do anything about him,
because it is a matter for the Spanish. Kenneth Pendar, an archaeologist where
Hayes is a historian, offers us Adventures
in Diplomacy, which is set in North Africa, where he helped prepare the way
for the invasion. He tells us that he fell out of love with de Gaulle in North
Africa, and came to prefer Giraud. Noel Busch’s Lost Continent? Is not a thriller set on Atlantis or Lemuria, but
rather a typewriter portrait of Europe as it is now, which is not really
“lost,” hence the question mark. Crane Britton gives us The United States and Britain,which the paper dislikes as
anti-British. Carl Crow’s The City of
Flint Grows Up is a history of a Michigan car-making town associated with
Buick. Herman Finer’s Road to Reaction is
meant as an answer to Hayek’s Road toSerfdom, but since the paper is a-swoon for Hayek, it is not much of
a notice.
Fortune Faces gives us Donald Bathrick of Pontiac, John Green of
the CIO (at length) and Mead L. Bricker of Ford.
Fortune Shorts
“Hi-Yo Silver” US silver policy
is insane, because it is a cheap way to buy senators from small states, and
notably Nevada’s McCarren. We all know that, but it is eye-opening that, even
though America is required by law to hold 500 million ounces of silver in
Treasury vaults, this is still a “shortage,” and the McCarran bill, which will
set the purchase price at 71 cents, will bring little foreign silver into the
United States, and keep the mines working.
Also, the RFC is still trying to
sell the Big and Little Inch, and there is burgeoning demand for common stocks
from “everyday” investors, and a shortage of new investors. (Knowing Uncle
Henry, I’m even more dispirited by hearing that Kaiser-Frazer is one of the few
exceptions.) Perhaps the tax cut will unleash a torrent of new issues, the
paper suggests. Or, perhaps, the company is awash with cash and no-one needs
to issue stock! (As see my comments at
the head.) There may soon finally be some Willy-Overlands “Jeeps” for sale to
civilian buyers in America soon, but they will still only be war surplus. I
hope that they don’t still tip over if they go around corners at above 20.
(Unpleasant memories from Mindanao.)
Fortune Survey
More Americans expect a “big war”
in the next twenty-five to thirty-five years than at the peace, with Russia
well at the head of possible causes. 63% think that Japan will “try again” to
rule Asia, while most think that Germany has learned its lesson. They have poor
opinions about Japanese character, but, on the other hand, think that the
Japanese knew less about atrocities than the Germans. They think that
overpopulated Japan should be made to live with the land it has, and that the
atomic bomb was used just about right –although 22% think that we should have
“used many more bombs before giving Japan a chance to surrender.” People are
optimistic that atomic bombs will not be used in the next war that they think
is coming (although this may be a question of people not thinking
contradictions in their answers through, I say), and 65.6% think that “some
other country” will have an atomic bomb in about five years. (52.5% in less,
11.7% in more than five years.) There is wide agreement that “politicians” and
not “military men” are responsible for Pearl Harbour, but Republicans are much
more enthusiastic about saying so, and thinking that the issue should be kept
alive for political purposes.
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