R. C.,
Vancouver,
Canada
Dear Father:
You were right to tell me not to worry about Magnin's, and for the good of my ego I will not question the way you put it. "I shall give them another call if I have to," means that some of my natural charm was not lost on them, after all!
The disadvantage of sealing the deal is that I my little course on how to be a shop assistant required me to drive up to San Francisco through fog and rain, and then down again, at which point the old Lincoln was so ungallant as to be a regular John Lewis, although it turns out that it was striking for a new distributor, and not portal-to-portal pay. And so much for fetching bacon and eggs for a week on the morning shift. Speaking of which, I need to get this done, as Andy Chu must be getting tired of sitting out in his car for me to bring it down to him. Can you imagine the scandal if I invited him up to wait in the living room with the beaus? I have no idea how I will summon up a smile if Mr. Straight is there again tomorrow, and I must, because so much for a week's pay!
Yes, it's anachronistic. That's why I softened you up at the head! This post isn't late because I had to drive somewhere, but it is late for work reasons.
So, yes, I was having second thoughts about giving up the life of a spoiled heiress --until Reggie called to see why I'd missed my call, which is because I was stranded by the roadside outside Redwood City. As for Andy cooling his heels outside now, and at the Benevolent Association all yesterday, part of that is down to me being on the phone too long --but as you pay Reggie's bills, you will know that anyway.
Perhaps I'll back Andy's stake the next time he has to spend a day playing penny-stakes mah jongg while he waits for me to finish. No. . . I should probably have to claim it on my income tax.
Yours Sincerely,
Ronnie.
 |
| Sacred Spring, indeed. |
Flight,
4 March 1948
Leaders
“That Mobile Striking Force” The RAF is
spending too much money on not enough nice, new planes. The RAF should spend
less money on more things.
“Service Difficulties” The RAF does not have
enough men, because there are not enough men. Since the RAF cannot make more
men (Is this actually true? I’m a Stanford girl, not Berkeley, but I’ve heard
differently!), so it should do . . . something.
“Civil Aviation” More civil planes should be
bought, but differently from the way they are now.
“Provoked Attacker: Vickers-Supermarine Jet Fighter Averages 564.881mph over 100-Km Closed Circuit” This is a record for
the closed-circuit course, which, Uncle George says in that tone where you know
he’s trying to make a joke even when it’s not funny, is not a record Flight cares about, except when a
British plane wins it.
Here
and There
The Tasman Empire Airways flying boats
withdrawn from service last week for engine modifications have American engines, by Pratt and Whitney. That’s
P-R-A-T-T . . . There is nothing wrong with flying boats except that they sometimes
come attached to American junk. Everyone carry on landing on water.
 |
| An Ansett Airlines Short Sandringham docked in Sydney in 1970. This version had Bristol engines, which did better in the Tasman Sea environment. |
The Dutch
have ordered a “substantial number” of Griffon-powered Fireflies for their aircraft
carrier. The official report on the fall of Singapore says that it happened
because the British didn’t have enough planes, which they needed because they
didn’t have enough ships, which they needed because they didn’t have enough
soldiers. Vokes and Napier made money last year. The Miles bankruptcy hearings continue.
Roy Pearl, “On Airborne Refuelling”
Refuelling attempts on the North Atlantic route have not gone well. It has been
tried four times, and the fourth was unsuccessful, which served to “expose the
complications and difficulties associated with the scheme, without prejudice to
the theory that it is a practical proposition and possibly a future necessity.”
Pearl, who flew as a passenger on the Liberator involved, thinks that the
trials “were not conclusive.” The fourth trial was made on 14 February. The
Liberator in question was to leave London Airport at 0.500 hours, refuel from a
Flight Refuelling, Ltd. Lancastrian tanker based at Shannon, 500 miles west of
Ireland; then, again, off the coast of Newfoundland, from a Flight Refuelling
Lancastrian based at either Gander or Goose Bay, depending on weather, and then
proceed by the Great Circle route to Montreal.
However, on the morning of the 14th,
the weather situation was “complicated,” and Captain E. H. Jones decided that
the Liberator lacked the range margin to make Montreal, even with two refuellings.
He decided instead to fly a “pressure pattern” route that would take the plane
north and close to Iceland; but since London Airport does not do weather reports
for that far north, a new weather map, prepared at Shannon and Prestwick, was
necessary. Since BOAC had never done a night refuelling, it was decided to fly
to Iceland, land, refuel, then proceed to Montreal, refuelling once of Newfoundland.
Accordingly, the plane took off from London Airport shortly after 6, landed at
Keflavik, refuelled, proceeded on a direct track over Goose Bay, rendezvoused
off Newfoundland with a tanker which had taken off from Gander “under very poor
weather conditions” and climbed through ice to 12,000ft. This left the tanker
25 to 30 miles behind the Liberator and unable to catch up in a reasonable time,
even if the Liberator throttled back. Captain Jones therefore decided to
proceed directly to Montreal without refuelling in the air, while the tanker
landed, “in the face of difficult weather,” at Seven Islands, about 250 miles
from the base. All of that makes it sound as though in-flight refuelling isn’t
very practical, but that might not turn out to be true for very good reasons
that weren’t at all clear to me.
“Bombers of the Powers: British, American and
Russian Types: The Lincoln Our Latest: Brabazon-size Bombers in Production” The
Air Estimates say that the RAF’s bomber force is currently working on improving
its “training, mobility and re-deployment,” and that “re-equipment has no place
in the programme.” The Lincoln is quite old, but there is so much to be worked
out before a new bomber is possible, that it must soldier on, even though it is
slower and smaller and less heavily armed than the B-50, which is the cat’s meow,
and even the Russians’ B-29ski. Meanwhile, the B-36 is gigantically enormous,
and so is the B-35, of which the Air Force will receive only 13, and the B-49,
although there is no word that the USAF is getting any of those. Flight is also jealous of the B-45, the
B-46, the B-47, the P4M, the P2V, and the XBY-Forty-Eleven-And-A-Half. The French
have some Halifaxes, and the Russians have all those German scientists, who
will surely swing a surprise soon, perhaps a working Ju-287, or the rumoured TU-2 light bomber with German engines.
“Research for Speed: Survey of Variable-DensityHigh Speed Tunnel at Royal Aircraft Establishment, Farnborough” The variable
density tunnel was proposed in 1937, designed in 1938, started in 1939, and
finished in 1942. It is a large, heavily insulated tunnel with a gigantic fan,
good cooling, and a series of compressors to achieve variable density, from 4
atmospheres down to 1/16th. It uses coolants by the ton and
electricity by the thousands of kW-hours. Aircraft models are mounted in a
balance that is a “beautifully constructed mechanism of RAE design” that
measures eight separate forces. Selsyns are used in the servoes. Barometers are
attached to the balance. The tunnel employs 70 research workers. The tunnel is
only good to Mach 0.8, but supersonic tunnels are under development. (Several
already exist, but have very small cross-sections, which makes them less
useful.) It has been found that tunnels are much less useful between about Mach
0.8 and 1.2, due to interference effects. Which we already knew, but you can’t
tell people often enough, for some reason. I’m not sure why. Surely people won’t
have forgotten about “transonic” speeds and the “sound barrier” in seventy
years, and all the trouble we went through to design fast aircraft, will they?
 |
| Yes. Yes, they will. .By JuergenKlueser - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7517883 |
Civil
Aviation News
Argentine is buying Doves (still), SAS is introducing a far eastern route to Tokyo via Alaska. IATA’s international airline
rate structure was refined at the Cairo conference. Separately, freight charges
are down. Swedish Airlines are on strike, there has been an agreement on the
use of West Indian airfields, Graviner I, II, and VI fire extinguishers need
their sockets tested. London Airport handled 28,305 passengers in December, up
slightly since June and a lot since last December. BEA’s traffic returns to
Europe are also up. AOA’s summer schedule takes effect on 1 May, and will
feature twelve eastbound Constellation flights weekly, nine to London, three to
continental Europe; and four DC-4 eastbound trips to Scandinavia via Iceland. The
Lockheed Constitution has a four-wheel bogie. As from 1 March, meal service on
BEA will be complementary. Stanstead Airport now has its MF beacon and SBA operational.
Sir John Buchanan has resigned from the board of Short and Harland and been
replaced by Rear Admiral M. S. Slattery.
 |
| Admiral Slattery has an interesting bio, and has come up in these pages before, but his portrait is unprepossessing, so here is the Short SC. 1, which he championed while at Short-Harland, instead. By RuthAS - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6082730 |
Australian National will continue its
Sydney-Vancouver service after British Commonwealth Pacific Airlines begins its
service, but under contract to TWA. Trans-Canada will operate a 14-hour DC-4M
service between Montreal and Vancouver as from 1 July, and will step up Montreal-London
DC-4M service to two flights a day from 1 June. Civil Hercules time-between-overhauls
has been increased from 500 to 600 hours “under certain conditions.”
“Commons Debate” The Commons had a debate on
how civil aircraft are ordered in Britain. The Opposition thinks that it is
being done wrong. All the aircraft that have been ordered, shouldn’t have been,
and all the aircraft that weren’t ordered, should have been.
“Aircraft Design Procedure: Neither Works of
Art nor Works of Engineering Can be Produced by Committees” Precis of a Lecture
to the RAeS by Professor R. Lickley of the College of Aeronautics, Cranfield” I
know that I am an awfully bitchy young rich girl with a contrary streak a mile
long, all due to the fact that I am rebelling against my parents for all the
wrong reasons. Whoosh! It feels good to get that
off my chest! Anyway, the point of the admission is that I know that I will
be wrong when, the next time some eager engineering student tells me that a “camel
is a horse designed by a committee,” I kick him smartly in the shins. Professor
Lickley used to be with Hawker, and tells us that designing planes is hard,
takes a long time, and requires many compromises. He explains how a preliminary
specification leads to thousands of hours of work before a design is even
presented. Even at this stage, many decisions can be made about shape, wing
loading, and high-lift devices that might end up seriously compromising the
design. Then there are problems beyond the designers’ control (it is clear that
there are many designers, working together, but evidently, they are not a “committee,”
because “committees” are bad), such as the choice of engine. Engine people have
been guilty of over-optimism about” airscrew turbine” engines, which has Ruined
Everything. Then comes weight estimation, which can also go wrong. At this
point, you submit your tender, which is considered by the tender-approval
committee, which might or might not be bad, I don’t know, because the article
is to be continued next week.
 |
| Professor Lickley's final project, the Fairey Delta 2. another RuthAS picture. |
“The Air Estimates: Aim: An Efficient
Striking Force Ready at Short Notice” As usual, the numbers are mixed up, so that an actual 194 million spent on the
air becomes 173 million, because 21 millions come from other ministry budgets. By comparison, it was 239 million (214 million) last year. Thirty-nine million
of this is to be spent on aircraft, compared with 43 million last year. The
number of stations continue to be reduced, and works maintenance is being put
off. Also, there are not enough men, as the Leader already said.
Correspondence
Donald S. McKay points out that the RAFVR
would do a better job of recruiting if it just had nicer posters, forgetting to
mention hats, at all.
Arthur Cook points out that Keith-Jopp and Mr.
Mason were very mean to each other in their recent letters about getting lost,
and that, really, everyone gets lost. Marcus Langley writes to explain the
position of the Informal Light Aircraft Committee on the subjects that people
were complaining about. It turns out that the complainers were just
complaining! T. Braun asks whether high-powered piston fighters might be
equipped with an auxiliary ramjet under the fuselage. Isn’t that what the
Mustang’s radiator scoop is?
The
Economist, 6 March 1948
Leaders
“Action After Prague” The Economist admits that the Communist coup in Prague was brutal,
clumsy and ruthless, and raises real fears for France and Italy (and, more
immediately, Finland), but it was also defensive, prompted by rising fears in
the Eastern Bloc that the Marshall Plan will bring better times in the West.
Moreover, it has made the Marshall Plan more
likely, with Senator Vandenberg “masterfully” using the crisis to push the
ERP through in an atmosphere where Wallace seems like a traitor and where the isolationist
ought to be able to make up ground. Unlike
the Nazis, who were always on the offensive, Stalin has shown a willingness to
retreat when challenged. If pushed ahead, the Marshall Plan will make everything
all right, not that there aren’t threats to the West, especially from Communists
within trade unions and governments who might act the way they did in Czechoslovakia.
“How Strong is the Eastern Bloc?” Uncle George
points out that the whole east of Europe used to be summed up by jokes about “Ruritania”
until we recently decided that we needed to be afraid of them, because of
Russia. This seems a bit much, as they have a combined population of 110
million with excellent military potential, Russian-trained officers, numerous
reliable political cadres, and access to the heavy industry of the Soviet Union
and their own countries. This mighty advantage in manpower and raw materials
has as its main weakness the traditional social and national divisions that
make the “Balkans,” the Balkans. But isn’t this kind of thing exactly what
Communism means to put in the past? We shall see if trained political operatives,
attentive to the privations of the working and peasant classes, can make the
difference. More threatening (from the Cominterm perspective) is the
pro-western attitude of the professional classes. How far can reconstruction go
without technicians?
“Operation Canute” Canute is the king who
tried to stop the tides from coming in, and, according to Oliver Lyttleton, the
President of the Board of Trade is a new Canute with his further (voluntary) price
controls nonsense. The Economist thinks
that price controls are not futile attempts to order the tide not to come in,
but rather the force behind the tides, because anti-inflationary measures like
this promote inflation by distorting the working of the economy. It explains
why in some details, but The Economist thinks
that the real solution is either “far-reaching totalitarian dragooning of the
whole economy,” which probably won’t work, anyway, or “merely to turn down the
pressure of inflation.” The Economist doesn’t
spell out how that might be done, so I can’t really say that it is still for
lower budgets and higher unemployment. 
“Flying Blind” BOAC, as “chosen instrument,”
loses money in several unavoidable ways. First, by buying British, which is a
good idea, but expensive, and come a disastrous cropper with the Tudor, for
which everyone is partly to blame, but mainly the Government. Getting the Ministry
of Civil Aviation into the process raises costs by perhaps 2 or 3%, and does
little for the industry, which is currently operating at only 3% of capacity
and losing £70
million/year. Second, by maintaining “uneconomic routes,” which I wouldn’t have
taken the trouble to write out if it didn’t name names: The Australian route is
uneconomic, but necessary, on because of the Empire. Taking current planes into account, the
Constellation, despite being the backbone of BOAC’s transatlantic service,
lacks range. The Tudor is a failure. A proposed Constellation with Bristol
engines has not gone ahead. The Skymaster may still, since having a British
engine on a Canadian-made plane saves dollars and eliminates the dollar burden
on engine maintenance, the most expensive part of aircraft maintenance. The
costs for improving airfields is not under the BOAC, and so is an additional source
of government subsidy for civil aviation, and The Economist is sore about that, and the fact that the state
airlines have to pay the same landing fees as private ones. I don’t know.
Complaining about airport costs sounds a lot like The Economist of 1848 when it was working itself up to complaining
about the cost of “drains.” (Sewers, in Twentieth Century Talk.)
Notes
of the Week
“Plenty of Conferences” Many, many, or two, I
don’t know, I’m not reading, conferences are going to be conferenced soon to
get the European Relief Programme (which is sometimes the Marshall Plan)
underway some more.
“Cooler Heads Needed” Sensing weakness in the
frustrated reader who just cannot hear one more bit about Sixteen Nations
Conferences and Four Power Conferences and ERP conferences, The Economist devotes another note to
the need for more conferences with cooler people. “The French delegation must
have wondered whether their journey was really necessary when they found that
the first week was spent in stating cases which, in their main features, have been
known for months.” Exactly!
“Defence Debate” While Flight spent its coverage on Conservative MPs saying silly things, The Economist takes the tone of a drama
critic, thinking that the debates were a poor show all around due to everyone
being on edge over l’affaire Czech. Members
who are used to thinking of defence in terms of what would be available in ten
years, when the next war is already booked, are now asking what is ready right now. Mr.
Alexander seems like an old battleship, solid, slow, old-fashioned, reliable,
but “with too much weight above the waterline for the Bikini age.” The problem
is, The Economist points out, he’s right.
There’s far too much on the boil for the scientific workers to just launch into
rearmament right now! The real question is civil defence, which isn’t under his
ministry at all. (I guess that is what the MPs were on about with their
bombers-built-in-Winnipeg talk.) The real target for completed rearmament is
1960, and The Economist thinks that
Mr. Alexander should continue his steady course of economy, retrenchment,
reform, as a healthy economy is the true first line of defence, etc. The Western
European allies, the Americans and the Dominions need to do more.
“Labour and the Marshall Plan” Uncle George ended
up summarising this kind of article by writing “Labour is awful,” and Grace
followed the tradition. You’ll notice that I try not to do that, because it is
disrespectful, but it is so hard, sometimes. (Labour isn't grateful enough for the Plan.)
“Which Method for Italy” Another week,
another creeping-communism-is-on-the-rise-in-Italy article. The Economist admits that the Communists
do not have the votes to win in the upcoming election, and that strike action
will probably just feed the support of anti-communists in the Italian trade
unions, as happened in France in November. That leaves civil war, as in Greece.
The Communists might not win, but they might “reproduce the wasting sickness of
Greece,” and their chances are the brighter for the Christian Democrats’
deflationary policies.
“Spring Prospects in France” The Chamber of
Deputies applauded Bidault’s unity speech rapturously, and de Gaulle has
quieted down, but perhaps the Communists will rally the working class in the
fields and factories this spring, even though production in heavy industry and
electricity is above record levels achieved in October of 1947, and 4 million
acres more are in grain than last year, with prospects of big yields.
“Trade Unions in the Czech Coup” The Czech
trade union association played an important role in the coup, which should be a
lesson elsewhere.
“The Best of Both Worlds?” The supply debate
was fun for all, but not very informative, because it was dominated by the
Anglo-Russian Agreement, which, on the one hand, communists, on the other, complete
opacity on price. The minister says that it is a good deal on price, but Mr.Lyttleton say it isn’t, and since it is all about where else Britain could have
shipped its locomotives, who knows, really? Meanwhile, bilateral agreements in
which the government steps in to guarantee deliveries from the private economy
to pay for goods in kind is no basis for a trading system. The Economist hopes that the Marshall Plan will make a new system
of multilateral trade possible.
“Parliament and Public Boards” “One of the
troubles of the new public boards is that they are too attractive game to leave
unhunted.” Yes! This is why I can’t
pay attention to politics! In unrelated but also pissy news, The Economist thinks that the settlement
of the London Transport Board busmen’s strike was too generous and is “difficult
to reconcile” with the White Paper. Also, the doctors and the Government have
stopped fighting while the BMA thinks about what to do next about the National
Health Service.
“Sermon for the Stern Gang,” and “A Communist
Jewish State” cover developments in Palestine. The government made a “statement”
to the Jewish Agency that is actually a “sermon” that will have no effect on “the
kind of European who emerged from Hitler’s Europe.” The Stern Gang showed what
it thought by bombing that British troop train, and no doubt all the young Palestinian
Jews are heartily in favour of it. The Stern Gang are loyal to Russia, which is
why they kidnapped and murdered two Poles recently, and not because they, like
some Polish exiles, were training Arab militias. The second note develops the
idea that the new Jewish national state will go communist at length, and
compares young socialists there to supporters of Henry Wallace, before
acknowledging that maybe, just perhaps, some of this communist fashion is meant
to encourage the Americans to support the Zionists before the Russians do.
“Brick Houses” The newest threat to housing
starts is the curtailment of timber imports, which may force the reduction in
traditional brick house orders below 3000 per month, which, even with an increase
in non-traditional (factory-built) house orders, means a substantial reduction
in the million strong construction industry, including 600,000 in houses. The Economist thinks that this would be
good, since the hands are needed in industry, but will require “painful
adjustments.” In completely unrelated news that doesn’t seem to require its own
note, although it gets one, Lord Braintree and G. L. F. Bolton have been named
to the Court of Directors of the Bank of England.
“Hongkong and China” The Economist is pleased that business is doing well in Hong Kong
and disappointed that the British press in Hong Kong took offence to its
comments on the situation in Kowloon, over which the Chinese are upset and not
likely to stop being upset, no matter what British Hong Kongers would prefer.
In further news of quarters of the world where locals decline to be oppressed
and treated as an inferior class, talks are on about the future of the Sudan
again, and India’s constitution has been settled. Also, it is funny that the debate
over dollar remittances has extended to Hollywood and the West End. Mickey
Rooney, Danny Kaye, Mae West, Johnny Weissmuller, Joe Louis, and so on, are sending
more money to America than British performers in Hollywood are sending to Britain,
to perhaps the tune of £174,000 a year, but that’s not very much money in the grand
scheme of things, and it is funny but pointless to talk about banning American
culture for the sake of the pound.
As cliched as this clip is, it was The Economist that brought up Hellzapoppin'
Letters
R. Gresham Cooke, of the Society of Motor Manufacturersand Traders, Ltd. questions whether the motor industry absorbs more labour now
than before the war, and that this is a serious issue, when the figures are an
increase from 150,000 to 158,000 making far more, bigger vehicles on a five-day
week. Peter Goldman, of London, writes to point out that if the Liberals
somehow managed to hold the balance of power in Parliament, that would hardly
be fair to the vast majority of voters who voted for Labour or the Tories. Arnold
Price thinks that it is no defence that the salaries of public board members
are comparable to business salaries, when business salaries are also too high. Henry
Strauss is very upset at what passes for English these days. Why is “disinflation”
preferred to “deflation,” or “in short supply” to “scarce”? He could go on. And
does.
From The Economist of 1848 It says that Lord Russell’s government is doing income tax wrong.
Books
John Morris’ The Phoenix Cup is a travelogue of postwar Japan, describing
America’s policy of “occupation without humiliation.” Leo Amery’s The Awakening has us awakening from a
hundred year dream of One World and “promiscuous” free trade. The Economist would prefer to sleep in. Well,
mark this down as a red letter day when I agree with Mr. Crowther, as I have to
be up at the crack tomorrow to go up to the city to hear about what Magnin’s thinks
makes a proper shopping assistant. Walter Zindell’s Is This the Way? A Call to the Jews has serious reservations about
Zionism, and in particular the way that it ignores the Arab problem.
American
Survey
“Whirlwind Harvest” Wallace winning one
district in the Bronx shows that American support for Zionism was sowing a
harvest of whirlwinds that are now whirling windily, one possible tornado being
the shortage of oil during the great freeze, which shows that if the Arabs are
upset enough to restrict exports of oil, the United States, which will import
oil for the first time in 1948, will feel the pinch. Also, maybe the United
Nations will blow up if its votes aren’t respected.
American
Notes
“Is the Marshall Plan Enough?” Although the
State Department’s apologists say that it wrote Czechoslovakia off months ago,
everyone else is alarmed. Senator Vandenberg is facing a new fight in trying to
persuade the Senate to add military aid to recovery aid. A group of revisionist
Senators are calling for measures that might extend to an increased Air Force
budget and universal training, after all. Hoover is trying out a new isolationist
position in which the Europeans form an anti-communist military alliance that
is secure enough to allow America to continue outside entangling foreign
alliances. That is, indeed, the alternative: an extension of the Truman Doctrine to a military guarantee of the European powers. Meanwhile, Wallace, in speaking against the
Marshall Plan, is now talking about American and Russian spheres of influence
in Europe!
 |
| "Herbert Hoover is always wrong" is such a reliable rule of thumb that I'm left thinking that there really was some kind of family influence behind his early career. |
“Out of the Democrats’ Bag” As though Wallace
weren’t enough, there is now talk amongst the Southern Governors of a “half-bolt”
out of the Democratic Party. Southern Democratic state governments are
flaunting the Confederate flag at state capitols and talking about a weird
scheme involving electors not voting and Congress electing the President, who
will then magically not be Truman or a
Republican.
“Oil for the Lamps of China” Congress has
voted some money for China relief, but it is not deemed to be enough. Republicans
seem all-in for money for the Koumintang. Uncle George says –You know what Uncle
George says! You agree with him! I just don’t want the world to be that mean. .
. says Ronnie. I guess I should just learn to harden my heart and be the mean
girl for real. Since we’re on about right and left and partisanship, I’ll
mention the NLRB move for a temporary injunction against the typographers,
which strengthens Taft-Hartley, and the resignation of Lee Pressman, which
closes the gap between the CIO and the AFL.
Shorter notes include the fact that Senator
Vandenberg’s name is being added to the Republican primary in Nebraska despite
Vandenberg still not explicitly entering the race, and the index of industrial
production remaining steady in January in spite of weather and retreating
commodity prices, with the thought that even if there has been a “decisive turn”
in business, it will not be felt before May.
The
World Overseas
“Next Stage in Finland” Finland is like
Czechoslovakia in that the Communists have strong representation in parliament
that they probably will not retain in the next election. If Stalin acted in Prague
at the turning of the tide, why not in Finland? It is clear that the Finns will
join an anti-Western alliance with the Soviets and reject Marshall Plan aid. The
question is whether there will be “further political changes in the coming months.”
“Switzerland and the Western Union”
Switzerland wants to trade with Europe, get its hands on sweet Marshall Plan
aid, and remain neutral, which last part isn’t selfish because (Insert history
lesson here.) And that’s why we read The
Economist. To squint at potted two-page histories of Switzerland printed on
bad paper and flown across the Atlantic!
“British Honduras” Honduras is a country near
Mexico. There is a British Honduras, which was carved out of Guatemala and not Honduras.
Honduras doesn’t like that, but obviously Guatemala likes it even less. If
Britain has to give Antarctica back to Chile and Argentina, it will probably
have to give British Honduras back to Guatemala. As if!
“Revival of Hong Kong” Hong Kong’s economic
statistics show an import of $1 billion or so in goods, including an increasing
amount from Japan, paid for by an export of $1.2 billion. The main items were
oil and fats ($274 million), “sundries” ($245 million), piece-goods and
textiles ($194 million). The largest share of exports went to British Malaya,
followed by South China, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Uncle
George tries so hard to always be cheerful around me, but he was noticeably sad
that shipbuilding didn’t even register in the totals. I think he’s guilty that
the work he stole away to Whampoa isn’t coming back to Hong Kong, in spite of
the troubles in Canton.
The
Business World
“Shipbuilding Problems Now” The statistics The Economist is using are the same ones
that The Engineer uses, so there are
still the same oddities, like the exclusion of Russian, German and Japanese contributions
from the total of a little more than 2 million GRT of new shipping last year,
of which Britain was responsible for almost 37%, a more dominant position than
before the war. There is no question, as there might be in aircraft, that this
is an over-developed industry (I’m sorry, but “3% of capacity”?). The world
still needs to make up the losses of the war; there is a general shortage of
tankers despite the tonnage being up 50% over prewar; European powers need to
rebuild their fleet to earn dollars (and war-built American ships are still
being chartered at a ridiculously unnecessary cost in dollars); old ships need
replacing; and the replacements will be far better than the old. The industry believes that it can build more ships
but says that it needs steel to do it. Is there enough steel? Are the
allocations (which are not published) really
unfair and inadequate? We just don’t know.
The next big story is about the effects of
the New Companies Act, which I read with some care, as in the future, who
knows. However, I think it is irrelevant
to this newsletter, so I’m skipping it.
Business
Notes
“The Last of the Credit” Last Monday, the
British government drew the last $500 million of the $3.75 billion US line of
credit. The Economist thinks that
this was due to rising commodity prices in the United States, the slowing of
the export drive after early 1946, and “the excessive generosity of releases
from accumulated sterling balances of sterling area countries and allocations
of dollars from the sterling area pool to those countries.” Plus, the
over-hasty restoration of convertibility. Now, Britain has only gold, the
dollars on hand, and a few more that can be bought from the IMF. The Economist wishes to see further
dollar economies, higher exports to dollar markets, and Marshall aid. Somewhat
related news includes ongoing negotiations over the movie import tariff, with
Eric Johnson and the American ambassador getting involved; and the blocking of
assets of European nationals in the United States. The astonishing numbers of
$700 million in blocked and $4.3 billion in unblocked assets are thrown around,
with a huge hole where “companies registered in Luxembourg and Switzerland” is concerned.
The US Treasury is going to make them disclose their beneficial owners. Also,
France, having spent all its gold and dollars, is rapidly drawing down its sterling
balance, which has upset the British enough that they are talking about adding
France to the list of countries the British tourists won’t be allowed to visit
this summer. The next million Business
Notes are about finances, of which the closest to “technological news” is the
latest update from the selling-Uruguayan-rails-to-Uruguayans talks. Maybe the “Expanding
Trade under Bilateralism,” too? After all, it’s about trading locomotives for grain,
sometimes. The bilateral agreement with the Netherlands also includes steel,
cotton yarn, chemicals and motor cars going over for condensed and powdered
milk, eggs, bacon, fresh fruits and vegetables including potatoes and onions, and
canned meat and pulses. Bacon and eggs also figure in the bilateral agreement
with Poland.
 |
| This could end up being a British stereotype if someone doesn't watch out. |
“Restrictions on Oil Bunkering?” The oil
shortage is driving prices up and costing Britain heavily on oil imports, so
there might be restrictions on the amount of oil freighters can bunker in
British ports soon.
“Timber Supplies” The same old story. Imports
are up, but demand is up even more, and this is restricting housing
construction. Softwood exports are in especially short supply due to lack of
felling and transport, and because wood is being used for fuel in lieu of short
coal. The European industry is recovering slowly despite the rapid rise in
prices. Britain has agreed to take 40% of British Columbia’s softwood export;
 |
| Port McNeill in 1941. Very relevant to several thousands of people. The photographer is standing on the site of my future high school. |
but Canada, like the United States, of course, but also Germany, Finland and
Sweden is now a hard currency area, actually or in effect, leaving only Finland
and Russia out of traditional suppliers who do not need to be paid in dollars,
coming or going. The United Kingdom has right now 1.2 million standards of
timber stockpiled, compared with 214,000 at the end of 1946, and 698,000 at the
end of 1940. The present stock is 7 ½ months supply on the basis of last year’s
consumption, and it would be “imprudent” to exceed that level. The figures are
similar for hardwoods, but we don’t care about that, because your interests don’t
harvest hardwood.
There follow more financial pieces, and then one very, very
strange bit—
“Report on China Clay” So guess what Britain’s
most valuable raw material commodity export is? China clay says the Working
Party Report on China Clay. The Economist
is a bit skeptical, given that the 1947 trade figures list it below coal,
raw wool and rabbit skins, but there is no question that China clay is an important
export, and that not only is Britain the largest producer now, it was before
the war, when, in 19378, 830,000 tons were produced, and two-thirds exported,
with the United States as the largest customer. Production recovered from wartime
lows to 624,000 tons in 19478, but exports were only 248,000 tons, which seems
as though it is letting the side down, but reflects demand from paper-making
and the housing programme. The Chinaclay pits in Austell and south-west Dartmoor have plenty of capacity, and there
could be many more were there only “free entry” into the business, which the
Working Party would like to see, but not enough to do anything about it. See
also “cartels.” Just to take it one step further, the Working Party would like
to see a state research facility into china clays, reduplicating the ones that
the industry already operates.
Flight, 11 March 1948
Leaders
“The House on Bombers” Flight tells us that G/C Max Aitken, MP, thinks that the RAF only
has 100 bombers, while Mr. Quintin Hogg, MP, thinks that it is only 25. Flight pointed out last week that the
Lincoln is old and not as good as the B-50, which makes it very disappointing
that Bomber Command will only finish re-equipping with Lincolns this summer. Meanwhile,
the Americans have all those short ranged jet bombers and their B-36. Air
Commodore Harvey, MP, has heard about an “interim type,” which he hopes will be
very exciting, and Mr. Ward, MP, hopes that it will be able to go “beyond the
iron curtain,” at which point the ladies adjourned to the sitting room, while
the gentlemen lit their pipes.
“Foolish Virgins” And you just thought that was
being indiscreet of tongue because I miss Reggie! Anyway, everything is
terrible, is the best summary I can think of.
“Helicopter Progress” It has taken so long to
get the Bristol 171 helicopter in the air because Bristol spent a long time
testing it, which, Flight thinks, was
a good idea. For example, it will have much longer time between overhauls than existing
helicopters.
Maurice A. Smith, “Tudor in the Air: An Hour
at the Controls of Star Leopard” It
has been four years since Smith flew a large plane, a Lancaster, although he
has spent short periods at the controls of the Constellation, Hermes and
Lancastrian since. He found the Tudor IV very docile and straightforward. He
also appreciated the neat and sensible controls, since in BSAA planes, the
flight engineer’s duties are done by the second pilot, and all flight engineer
controls are remounted onto the ceiling above the second pilot’s station,
freeing an extra 150 cubic feet for cargo or baggage. Takeoff, at 70,000 lbs
auw, was at +12 lbs boost, flaps set for maximum lift at 62.5% travel, then
reduced to 25%, rudder, aileron and elevator all at neutral. As brakes were released,
a slight swing to port was corrected with rudder and throttles; as speed built
up to 60 knots and tail lifted, another swing to port developed, and was corrected
by rudder alone. Finally, throttles were opened fully, and the plane took off
with 200 yards to spare at 105 knots, speed building up to 120 knots, with a
swing to port again detected and corrected. There was no need to change trim as
wheels and flaps came up, a slight correction to the elevator led to a steady
climb of 650ft/min, with over-corrections at the rudder to compensate for a
slight shimmy that could have been dealt with more easily by an experienced pilot,
although Smith notes that he observed the same shimmy in rough air while flying
in a Tudor as a passenger the year before. Ailerons were light, rudder somewhat
heavy, stall with flaps up 113 knots at 80,000lbs down to 98 knots at
60,000lbs. Landing was at 2650rpms with an approach speed of 130knots, with speed
coming down to 120kn as flaps came down, with forward trim needed to keep the
nose up and engine opened to maintain rate of descent. Finally, Smith quotes from
the pilot’s guide for maximum range: M.S. gear, 2650rpm, +9lb/sq in boost. When
boost has fallen to +6, engage FS gear and increase boost again to +9; cruise
at 140kn or up to 10% higher if the speed can be achieved “at the lowest
possible rpm,”; In M.S. gear, hold boost at a maximum of +9 and hold
recommended air speed until rpms are down to 1800.
I’ve quoted what seems most relevant, bearing
in mind the “dipstick problem” of the Tudor IV supposedly landing in Bermuda
without enough fuel to taxi off the runway, and BOAC’s refusal of the type due
to the yaw to the left. Smith tends to be a kind reviewer, but his criticisms
are often there, only veiled. Since he constantly qualifies his observations of
the swing to port, I doubt that he truly has reservations about the yaw that led BOAC to reject the Tudor I. The range
issue is entirely another matter; but since he only flew Star Leopard for a jaunt around Woodbury, he doesn’t have any
personal experience with which to evaluate the pilot’s instructions.
“Defence Debate: Research, Secrecy: Our Jets
Win Praise” Introducing the Air Estimates, the Minister of Defence said that
British jets were grand, but that the RAF, because it had suspended regular
recruitment during the war, was faced with the mass expiration of all of its
technicians’ terms, and so far more manpower was being spent on training than
on active service. Efficiency remained high: For example, the RAF Transport
Command has flown 11 million passenger miles with only one serious incident. Right
now, the RAF’s main preoccupation was redeployment out of India, Pakistan and
Palestine. Replying to Alexander, Eden said that the RAF didn’t have many
bombers, and that was appalling. Brigadier Medlicott pointed out that the
Statement said that the Navy had no fleet carriers in service, only light
carriers, and what would the Russian High Command think of that? Mr. Bellenger
pointed out that maybe the bomber didn’t always get through in the past, but he
needed reassurance that it wouldn’t get through right now. Sir. R. Glyn wants
some kind of “technical militia,” a kind of trained group of potential RAF
members who might be organised on a territorial sort of arrangement, sort of.
He didn’t mention that they might be even more motivated to serve their country
in this way if they were given nice hats, perhaps with badges, but I am sure he
was thinking it. Mr. Gallagher recalled going to see a film at the Soviet
embassy about the recent manoeuvres in Kiev, which was very interesting,
especially the part where Lana Turner kissed Clark Gable, and then there was
this darling child, he thinks it was a girl, but perhaps it was a boy, and then
there was a murder, or maybe someone pretended to be murdered, and then he got
quite confused, but it turned out that Sidney Greenstreet was a rotter all
along. The Prime Minister replied that there was just enough secrecy about our
bombers to be useful, and that you shouldn’t give away the ending of movies in
the House of Commons.
The Red Army Choir sings a "Song about Frunze," 1948. That's all Youtube has.
In shorter news, Lockheed wants everyone to
know that it has put a hydraulic damper in its undercarriage wheels to prevent
excess upwards movement, and that it works splendidly, and is being put in all
its Constellations. In short news that I missed last week, there was a recent
demonstration of a tiny little British jet turbine of 250lbs thrust recently.
Civil
Aviation News
The Irish government has postponed the
Atlantic service that the Irish National Airline was going to start on 19 March,
because it was expensive, and the Constellations it bought for it are already
fully employed on the Dublin-London service, although they might be sold if
they were found to be too expensive. £20,000 in tickets have already been
sold, and will be refunded. ICAO is getting very sticky with engine-failure
requirements, so Airspeed is very happy to report that recent asymmetric
stalling tests of the Ambassador have gone very well. A Sabena Dakota crashedat London Airport on 2 March, killing 19, who burned to death in the wreckage.
 |
| By RuthAS - Own work, CC BY 3.0, |
The
plane arrived at 2114h GMT, with visibility of 200 yards, and was talked down
by GCA, but crashed on the runway Flight thinks because it could not gain visual detection of
the ground. The Ministry takes this occasion to point out that GCA is not a
full blind landing aid, and has issued instructions to not try to land unless
you are confident that you will be able to see the ground in time to not fly
into it. New Civil Airworthiness Requirements for gliders have been published
by the Air Registration Board. Chrislea Aircraft Factory reminds everyone that
it is busy making Chrislea Super Aces, which will soon be available in the even
better Series II Super Ace type. The Lancashire Aircraft Company has a nice
contract to fly 200 tons of cotton cloth to Belgium. The Ministry of Civil Aviation continues to
develop its LRE requirement for Imperial routes, since the Tudor might never be
available to fill it. BOAC will introduce a Japan service on 19 March, by
flying boat from Hong Kong to Iwakuni, near Kure, Japan. The journey from
Britain will take 7 days on a Plymouth flying boat, will carry 21 passengers, and
will cost £285
one way, £385
return. Night stops will be at Augusta, Cairo, Karachi, Calcutta, Bangkok and
Hong Kong. Northwest Airlines has ordered another 13 Martin 2-0-2s. As from 1
June, Pan American will fly two New York London services daily, 11 to Prague,
10 to Brussels and Frankfurt, and 7 to Vienna. The single Vickers Viscount prototype
will not be powered by Mambas. (Remember that originally there were to be three
prototypes, one each with Mambas, Naiads and Darts.) Delays of up to 30 minutes
on landings at London Airport may occur in the next little while as
high-intensity contact lights are installed on runway 100.280. KLM is also increasing
its Atlantic services. The Ministry of Civil Aviation has taken over the
marshalling of aircraft at London Airport from the individual airlines. Air
France is replacing its Dakotas with SE 161 Languedocs more quickly than
expected. The CAB has raised the minimum altitude for daylight visual flying
from 500 to 1000ft. Sir John Cockcroft, director of the government atomic
energy research station at Harwell, says that it will take about ten years for
atomic power to contribute to our fuel supplies, and that the possibilities for
applying atomic power to transportation were limited by the shielding required,
which meant that ships were a more likely application than aircraft. BEA is
opening a restaurant with seating for 180 at Northolt. A survey of outbound
passengers on AOA flights from London showed that nearly half, or 42%, did not
intend to return to Britain. Although not officially classed as emigrants, 11%
were women headed to America to be married, with a proportion also going to Canada,
Australia and New Zealand. AOA will take marks in payment for flights on its
new, regular Frankfurt-Berlin service. Advanced bookings show that “many”
Americans intend to fly to Britain this summer, with £62,000 in advanced bookings
sold.
“Polar Lancasters” A nice pictorial article about
the Empire Air Navigation School’s recent field trip to the North Pole to see
Santa via Gibraltar and Reykjavik. Five of seven aircraft completed the full
round trip back to Shawbury, with two withdrawing either at Reykjavik or after
taking off from there, one with electrical and radio defects, the other with an
oil leak.
 |
| Bomber Command has at most 100 Lincolns, but the Empire Air Navigation School can field 7 for its graduating exercise. |
“Army Crow’s Nest” A nice pictorial article
about the Heston A.2/45 Artillery Observation Post. It is the kind of article
that the manufacturer does up when the Service declines to take up the contract,
not the kind where the Service tells everybody how wonderful it is which tells
you that if there any A/2/45s ever go into service, it will be for Argentina or
such like countries. Uncle George says that a sale is unlikely, since most
armies the world about don’t have occasion to fire artillery at things, being
more in the business of staffing roadblocks and rifling through passersby’s
intimates until someone slips them a pourboire.
“Royal Auxiliaries” A nice article about the
new Auxiliary Air Force squadrons has pictures of Spitfires, when we really
want to know about hats!
“More About Tudors: The Atmosphere at
Chadderton: Modifications: BOAC Mk IVB: Other Marks” Flight thinks that Tudors are wonderful, and all the to-do has been
a fuss about nothing, and all the Avro staff have been marvelously forbearing
for not driving down to London and heaving a half-brick (British throw
half-bricks, because they are very small and weedy due to rationing) through
the windows of their critics. It has been decided that only Mark IVs are to be
employed, so Chadderton has begun preliminary work to fix up all the Tudor Is
to be Tudor IVs, but not more expensive work, as the MCA is not expected to
rule on airworthiness until the first Tudor I gets back from Africa, where it
has been doing proving flights into Nairobi (which is important because Nairobi
is hot and high.) Also, they are waiting on the Star Tiger inquiry, and another investigation into two other Tudor
IVs at Boscombe Down. Everyone thinks that the ground inspections are pointless,
and that what is now needed is more proving flights to provide the “stage of
experience that AVM Bennett is alleged to have by-passed.” Minor aerodynamic
and safety modifications have made the Tudor I (which will soon be the Tudor
IV) even more wonderful, and the IVB, which is now being prepared, is even more
wonderful, with new stringers, formers and skinning to extend the existing
flooring and controls so that a flight engineer can be carried as well as a
second pilot. (which is to say, by way of sideways admission, that the Tudor IV
didn’t used to carry a full cabin crew.) “Improved dipsticks” are to be
carried, amongst other control modifications. Cost will rise from the
originally cited £140,000 by perhaps £20,000. No sign of the Tudor VIII is yet seen.
 |
| So the design drops the flight engineer, and replaces him with a set of controls mounted on the roof above the second pilot. Is this normal? Should I be worried? |
Flight
carries obituaries for Griffith Brewer, the “first Englishman to Fly in a
Heavier-than-air Craft,” and Air Vice-Marshal Sir Oliver Swann, a pioneer of
aviation who served in the RNAS in WWI, in the RAF until he retired in 1929,
and then returned to the service in 1939—45.
“Aircraft Design Procedure” Psychological
Effect of Delay in Starting: Mock-up Conference: Maintaining Enthusiasm:
Pitfalls That May Be Encountered” (continued from last week) Everything before the
“pitfalls” seems straightforward. “Pitfalls” being more specific, the speaker
suggests that a high wing, twin turboprop, sandwich construction design has
been chosen. This means that the pitfalls include problems with stability due
to flap design, something that cannot be entirely caught on paper, and will
need wind tunnel testing; with the engines, there is a blast at the ICAO
requirements, which are hard to understand, and may trip the plane up for no
reason that the designing firm can grasp. The sandwich material is likely to be
novel and present the designers with unexpected problems. It offers greater
strength and better aerodynamic form, but is a novel material, which is always
a problem. There follows a discussion page that has suffered an unfortunate
postal mishap of the kind I’m more used to seeing in The Economist, which is clearly handled by postal workers (or
someone), who really, truly, deeply loathe it.
 |
| If this is an oblique reference to the Ambassador, I find the talk of problems with engine-off stability interesting. |
“Air Estimates Debated” The Minister says
that demobilisation continues and is difficult and expensive. So does research
and development, which is working on unmanned missiles and the planes that will
be replaced by them at some point in the future, and that is a hard balance to
strike. Expenditures on production equipment must be “limited” for now. The RAF
needs to be organised for mobility. All the various auxiliary corps are well on
their way to getting hats. Anti-aircraft development is tending towards the use of guided missiles to stop guided missiles, which is terrifically hard, because
it is like shooting down a golf ball with a golf ball, and that is hard, too. For
now, guided missiles cannot replace bombers, and the RAF needs a force of fast,
high flying bombers, supported by a “small but highly efficient fighter
component.” In strategic terms, atomic bombs “or weapons like them” will be in
the hands of enemies in substantial numbers by perhaps 1952 or 1955, at which
time it would be impractical to build aircraft in Britain (due to Britain being
atomically blown up or threatened with it if it were so bold as to make
aircraft in Manchester), so it should think about making them in Winnipeg,
instead, because Winnipeg is a funny name. Say it yourself to see. In
reply, GC Wilcock pointed out that the weather in Britain is bad, and that if
we don’t keep our bombers here, in hangars, we should send them abroad, where
it is always sunny, as it is in California. Supposedly. (Ronnie glares fiercely
out the window, thinking about tomorrow's trip to San Francisco and her Lincoln's recent habit of leaking at the leakproof no-draft windows.) Max Aitken is afraid that the RAF striking force has been frittered
away, or else we would have bombed the conference between President Videla and
Peron, just to let two of Britain’s main customers know that we weren’t going
to tolerate symbolic gestures in the direction of claiming icy Antarctic wastes
that are British Antarctic icy
wastes. Apples and trees, my fine young Wing Commander. . . Mr. Ward also
thinks that we should build bombers in the Dominions, and is appalled that the
bombers we have cannot get through the Iron Curtain. Perhaps Bomber Command
needs a cake with a file baked in? A. Cdre Harvey has the idea that perhaps the
RAF should order a high-flying, long range jet bomber. Just a thought for the
Air Ministry’s consideration. Quintin Hogg supposes that the RAF only has 25
operational bombers or so, and that this is too few for the money being spent.
Another MP reminds everyone that they make aeroplanes in Canada, now.
Here
and There
The Armstrong Siddeley Mamba is the first
British turboprop to pass type testing. The Cirrus Minor V is splendid. Ernest
Hives is going to South America. President Truman’s Air Coordinating Committee has
recommended that Japan and Germany not be allowed to have airlines, less the
crews get nice hats, and turn militaristic. Too much with the hats? Never! How
else am I to suggest that all this about auxiliary air forces is a bit silly
without descending into the depths of Uncle Georgian cynicism? Various air
shows are cancelled due to petrol restrictions or announced due to wanting to
sell planes. Milton Reynolds is to go on an exploration flight to look for the source
of the Yellow River, which I had no idea was misplaced. Well, he does make very
nice, expensive pens, so if anyone knows about things that get misplaced, it
would be him! Two Californian brothers have set a new record for gliding, at
twelve hours plus.
Correspondence
 |
| * |
Robin Grant asks what is the point of flying
at 250mph when your flight is delayed eight hours to start with. F. W.
Winterbotham, of BOAC, writes to correct G. D. Hart’s misconception that “speed
comes before safety,” is why BOAC is so intolerably slow. Winterbotham
points out that this is just not true. Mr. Hart asks for “attractive and
attractively dressed” stewardesses, “Not attired in vaguely military ensemble
with austerity cotton legwear.” Winterbotham points out that BOAC stewardesses
are selected to careful requirements and cannot be mannequins, and are, in
fact, issued nylon stockings. “Reservist” has a very long article about how
the RAFVR is being mishandled that must be very important, as the Correspondence gets an extra page to
deal with it, and comments from “Ex-E.F.S. Instructor” about why the “Two-stage
Amber” arrangement is better for blind flying training than the usual hood,
correcting instructors who mistakenly believe the contrary.
 |
| RAAF Spitfires |
Mr. Hart seems confused about onboard meals,
which are complementary. Snacks, cigarettes and drinks are charged. Mr. Hart’s
complaint about pilots coming back to visit the passengers seems strange, and
he is hallucinating his “BOAC European flights.” A. Sansom corrects Gurney Smeed
(which is still a real name) on the subject of “supersonic noise.” “Jimmy” is upset
at the way that the RAFVR is being handled and wants it to have nicer planes. So
is “Flatfeet,” a traffic policeman replying to regular correspondent, “474.” And,
yes, there is talk of hats. No, really! “474” is quite upset about ex-RAF types
who wear Peeler helmets, and others in the ordinary cloth caps of civil life.
The
Economist, 13 March 1948
“Sink or Swim?” The Economic Survey for 1948 is out. The Economist reminds everyone that when the 1947 one came out, the
country was in the middle of the coal crisis and The Economist wasn’t publishing, and everything was awful.
Mistaking the current situation for not-the-apocalypse, people might think that
this year’s Economic Survey would be
better, and The Economist rounds on
that with relish and a half-brick in a stocking. For without further American
aid (and obviously you cannot plan on
the charity of others), the country would have to shut down as a “modern industrial
nation” and “social democracy,” as City finance men would have to be fed the
raw flesh of coalminers and engineering operatives to keep the economy going. Or
some such. My resolution to not be a mean girl seems to fly right out the
window the moment I read an The Economist
leader! The Survey says that
imports from America will be further cut, leading to a lower standard of life
than last year, although not dangerously so, and so will exports, both of sterling
and capital goods, to no-account sterling balance countries. Labour force
targets show a planned increase from 718,000 coal miners to 750,000; 55,000
more men are to go to agriculture; textiles employment will rise, men and
women, from 652,000 to 760,000. The Economist
doubts that this will happen and implies that the government lacks the will
to do what needs to be done, without saying what that might be. To contain
inflation, the Survey hopes for voluntary
saving; if that fails, a cut in the Government budget will be necessary. The Economist does get around to
admitting that production is up over the last two years, but with the increase
in the working population and capital equipment, that is just something to be
taken for granted.
“The Choice at Paris” France is jealous of
the crisis in Britain, so it is having its own crisis, which involves
Communists and de Gaulle. True, everyone says that economic production is up so
steadily over so many countries that the problem will solve itself in the form
of general contentment by 1951, but that underestimates the Communists, who can
completely reorder society with their sinister methods. What if Britain is soon
faced with another tyrant in control of the Channel Ports? What then? That
point about how things are getting better turns out to not be what this note is
about, because right at the middle we finally get to something called “The Paris
Report,” which a group of Americans came over to disagree with on the grounds
that the price level will go up and ruin everything unless there is a Western
Union to take drastic measures, which brings us in the end to the point, which
is that Mr. Bevin should say something about the United States of Europe in his
upcoming speech in Paris. A hint to writers: the thesis statement goes at the beginning. Or near it. And the “end” is
not the same as “the beginning.” Unless it’s in German? That’s it? The Economist’s writers aren’t overrated
know-it-alls, they’re foreign language majors!
“How Rich is the Eastern Bloc?” Since Russia
has taken over the Bloc and is paying for the Red Army out of occupation costs,
it is important to know how rich they are and how much richer then can get by
modernising farming and developing industry. The answer is, not much, not without imports
from the West, which they cannot pay for without the Marshall Plan. The only
alternative is Russian generosity. Does this even count as news? I’ll lump in
the next note without a paragraph break so it can be news-by-association. The
next one is where The Economist is
very disappointed with the Digest of
Statistics that accompanies The
Economic Survey, because it doesn’t have enough facts. For example, it
doesn’t show final steel production by type, and industry allocations.
Notes
of the Week
 |
| Actually, the leading note is about Masaryk's death, but Ronnie doesn't mention it because The Economist thinks that it was a suicide, which seems strangely naive. |
“Full Speed Ahead in Prague” Things proceed
in Czechoslovakia, with judges striking down old decisions, university faculty
being sacked, and communist politicians returning to ministries from which they’d
been removed by the National Front.
“Unbalanced Forces” Field-Marshal Montgomery made
a nice speech about the Secretary of War where he said something about balanced
forces, but he is wrong and wrong. At £305 million, it is not possible to
plan for “adequate defence for 1950 as well as for 1960.” You cannot build up a
striking force of 200,000 ready to go overseas by 1951 and still develop all
the needed new weapons. Conscription is simply for too short a time to build up
the necessary Territorial Army reserve, except it be for 1960. Britain, The Economist thinks, should either cut
back the army and focus on economic recovery, or get the Americans to pay for an
army capable of defending Western Europe and the Middle East now. At least
there’s one fact to go with the editorialising! Although then the next note
leaves you regretting what you wished for, as it dives into the details of the
international trade union conference on the Marshall Plan. (They’re for it.)
“International Wheat Agreement” Britain has
been fighting an international wheat agreement since 1933, afraid that it would
set the price too high. Well, the price
has bloody well risen on its own above a “fantastic” $3/bushel in the
last twelve months, so an agreement that sets it at $2.70, going down to $2, is
one that Britain can live with, and for which all the other importing countries
should be grateful to Britain for as they get together in Brussels to talk
about a defence union that might extend the Marshall Plan to an American
security guarantee. A follow up bit advances, ever so tentatively, the
possibility that Marshall’s superb conduct of foreign policy might, just might,
have achieved a “strategic situation in Europe at this moment [in essentials] .
. . very much what it was two years ago.” I think that means that it isn’t a
crisis now? Good news!
“On the Way to Moscow” Finns have been given
a chance to express their opinion of the new defensive treaty, and they don’t
like it. The Finns are said to be negotiating for the minimum conditions. The
Russians want a stronger hold on the strategic roads and railways of Lapland,
which they can have, if the Finns get
something back in Karelia, for example. On the other hand, the substance of
this rumour is that the Red Army is getting closer to Norway and Sweden, so
maybe that’s why it is being rumoured. The response in Stockholm and Oslo is gratifying,
anyway.
“New Targets for Cotton” That is, the cotton
industry. Specifically, the increase in the labour force by 70,000 to 325,000. The Economist notes the addition of
nurseries at many mills before getting on to what really excites it, a massive
rationalisation of the wage structure in the industry, which gets rid of
various anachronisms and ties pay to production. I don’t know. As a naïve girl,
I was always inclined to tune Grace out when she goes on her Lady Bountiful routine
about what piecework rates actually mean to garment workers in Chinatown, but
since I started working, I have become wise in the ways of the proletariat and
think that she just might have a point about how much of my tips go to the
kitchen staff. In unrelated news, The
Economist is upset that five board members have resigned from the
divisional production directorates of the Coal Board in the last fifteen
months, as good mining engineers don’t grow on trees, and the system is too top-heavy,
or bottom-heavy, or possibly middle-heavy.
“Communists on the Gold Coast?” Mr.Rees-Williams was “deplorable” when he so quickly blamed the riots in Accra starting on 28 February that killed 22 and wounded 200, on Communist agitation. That is,
indeed, what the Governor thinks, but the facts suggest mishandling of policing
and a variety of local discontents.
“A Minor Mein
Kampf” Senator Harmssen of Bremen has released a substantial volume, commissioned
by the Minister President of Bizonia, and intended to form the basis for a
negotiated peace settlement. The
Economist doesn’t like it.
There follow short bits about the ongoing
organisation of the National Health Service, a subsistence allowance adjustment
of the National Insurance Bill to take inflation into account, and coverage of
the Labour Party’s discussion of the next stage of nationalisation.
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| Source |
Letters
David Woolf and Francis Head pile in on the “third
party” question, although I haven’t the heart to read their opinions, except to
glance at the end and see that they have low opinions of the Liberal Party. Arthur
Whittaker dances around the idea of price competition through deflation as a
remedy to the rising standard of living.
From The Economist of 1848
The
Economist looks forward to the “outbreak in France” spreading to Germany, bringing
with it “progress in political conditions” and (implicitly) the advanced moral
conditions of modern Britain. It also flatters King Leopold of Belgium shamelessly.
Books
Hans Bernard Gisevius’ The Bitter End is about the German resistance to the Nazis, and
rather outrageously (to my mind) suggests that if Roosevelt and Churchill had
not insisted on unconditional surrender, all of these good Germans would have
done away with the Nazis on their own and installed a “soldierly, Christian”
government in “the best Prussian tradition.” C. M. Joad has Decadence out, and if you are wondering
what BBC’s answer man thinks might be “decadence,” it turns out to be. It lies
in abandoning “values,” “objectivity,” and in “over-specialisation.” He is especially
upset at economists, and The Economist is
mildly upset at him. John Newsom’s The Education of Girls is about how we’re over-educating girls these days, it
seems. It’s a bit hard to tell, because the review spends so much time congratulating
Newsom on being so hard on those dastardly feminists.
American
Survey
“Price Jitters” There has been a break in the
price of grain from 4 February, and an 11% increase in the price of steel coordinated
by many, but not all, integrated producers. Congress and the public are upset,
because naturally inflation or deflation will follow, leading America to
abandon the Marshall Plan and a global return to the Stone Age.
American
Notes
“Presidential Prospects” Dewey and Stassen
drew New Hampshire, with the next test in Nebraska. President Truman of course
took all six delegates up in New Hampshire, but the mere fact that he had to announce
his candidacy shows how far the revolt against him in the Democratic Party has
advanced since it became clear that his civil rights legislation would pass
this Congress. James Farley made a statement to the effect that Wallace might
pull 5 million votes, of which 75% would come from the Democratic Party.
“The Marshall Plan in Two Worlds” A full-on
press in Congress to get the Plan approved by 10 April, before the Italian
election, has led to talk of the Chinese and Greek packages being put off,
which has upset some Senators at the same time that the defence guarantee comes
forward.
“Russian Trade and American Security” Stassen
is pushing for a cessation of all American aid to Russia because the goods are
needed elsewhere, and because of communism. Others point out that until Eastern
Europe is trading with Western, there is no hope of “getting Europe off America’s
neck.” (Hoover, of course.) Still others think that European trade deals with Russia are equivalent
to American aid to Russia, and that perhaps Marshall Plan aid to Britain could
be curtailed to stop the Anglo-Russian agreement.
In notes that can be covered briefly, the
American side of the wheat agreement is covered. (American farmers are cautious
about $2 wheat, in case their standard of living goes down.) The CIO is on the
fence about pushing into the “third round” of wage increase negotiations given
the fall in commodity prices, and the Republicans are having increasing trouble
fighting the International Trade Agreement Act.
The World
Overseas
“Key to China’s Backdoor” By a Special
Correspondent
A short primer on Sinkiang, the Chinese province
between Tibet, India, Mongolia and Russia. Large but lightly populated by 5
million people, of whom 10% are Chinese, while more than 80% are Moslem Turks,
who are closely connected with the Soviet Asiatic Republics. Sinkiang has “vast
mineral resources,” air bases close to Soviet inner Asia and an invasion route
to China. Russia’s economic connections are closest of any power. After years
of warlordism, the Koumintang secured power in Sinkiang in 1944, but soon there
was an anti-Chinese, pro-Soviet revolt amongst the Kazaks. Another one followed
in the Illi valley in 1948. So far, no part of Sinkiang has broken off and
joined the Soviets. So far.
“Oil War in Rumania” The Rumanians want Royal
Dutch Shell and American companies out, and do not want to pay heavy charges
for nationalisation. So they have, at least according to The Economist’s correspondent, adopted sabotage tactics that are
undermining production and pushing towards the point where the Rumanians can
legally seize the concessions without compensation. The next piece is
completely unrelated, but it belabours the fact that Holland, too, has a dollar
shortage due to too much imported grain, not enough exported goods, which
hardly seems worth saying in this year of the Marshall Plan, but is.
“The Riots in Accra” The facts are that on 28
February, there was a procession of ex-servicemen demanding aid to re-settle in
civil life, mostly as clerks, for which they were trained in the army, and for
which there are no jobs for African veterans. At the entrance to Accra, they
were set upon by the police. On the same day, a boycott of shops of the Association
of West African Merchants was lifted, and large numbers of shoppers had
gathered in the market, expecting lower prices. When they discovered that only
a few prices had been reduced, they became restive, and when the ex-soldiers
arrived, a frenzy of looting broke out. When news that Mr. Rees-Williams had blamed
it on “communist agitators” got back to Accra, crowds began to threaten
Europeans. In short, Communists were blamed when it was the Government's fault.
The Business
World
“Economic Survey for 1948” After so much
editorialising, it is nice to have the facts laid out in nice charts that I can
clip out and forward separately without comment, because I haven’t really read
them that closely, because I am lazy that way.
Business
Notes
“Tough” Budget? The national budget (what
every Briton can spend) is £9250 million, down a whopping £250
million from last year. £2050 is on transfer payments such as security payments, war
pensions and national debt. The amount needed for capital formation, such as
housing and reequipment of the armed forces and utilities, is £1100 million,
leaving £7675 million for personal consumption. How much savings are required
out of this to prevent inflation? Given a government surplus on direct
expenditures of £275 million, the number is £575 million. Will this happen?
Probably not, because national expenditure on capital improvements is likely to
be much higher, just taking maintenance into account.If you’re wondering about the place of devaluation
in all of this, The Economist follows
up with a robust “Devaluation No Solution.”“The Film Agreement” explains the final
decision, which gets rid of the tax on American films and, in return, schedules
the portion of American film distribution profits from Britain that are to be
paid in inconvertible sterling. “Steel Prospects” discusses the likelihood of actually
getting the 100,000 tons of German commercial scrap agreed upon, given the
ongoing confusion in Frankfurt, and the impact this might have on steel
production targets. (Bleak). Also bleak, wool prices are down, cotton up.
Canada’s gold reserves are being depleted by a cash deficiency on trade,
leading to pressure for Canada to increase its gold holdings, presumably good
news for gold mining plays. A Belgian bilateral agreement is proving hard to
come by due to currency black sorcery, and Belgium is not alone, inter-European
trade is sensibly declining for lack of, sigh, currency. Currency is at issue
in China, too, although in a different way, as inflation flows from the issue
of notes to fund military spending.
“Electric Power Peaks” “For too long, the
idea has been cherished that the country could afford to go on building enough
generators to keep capacity permanently ahead of demand; it is now exploded.”
Demand for electricity almost doubled during the war years, and if the trend
continues, not even the completion in 1950 of a 5.5 million kW/h programme will
be enough to prevent shedding at peak periods. Meanwhile, expensive equipment
will be idle out of peak periods. The Economist
thinks that the solution lies in the combination of more accurate metering
to encourage the spreading out of peak loads, and some kind of electricity
storage scheme, as in Switzerland, where water is pumped up to the top of
reservoirs during off peak-load times.
Leaders
(Because Fortune is experimenting
with leading articles again.)
“Trade Without Traders” Fortune comes out against the Marshall Plan, on the grounds that it
is planning and stuff, and not free enterprise, and, incidentally, freezing foreign national assets is immoral
and stuff. Do you like my minuscule? I’ve been working on the
calligraphy for ages so I could mimic the typographical trick with using a
smaller font to “whisper” something. This is a really flabbergasting column. Fortune has been all in for the Marshall
Plan for a long time, and mocked the Republicans who were against it, because they
are Taft and Hoover. But now it suddenly comes out against the Plan, and, oh,
so incidentally, the asset freeze that is such a small part of it –until you consider
that $4 billion that is being swept up in it.
“Management by Acclaim –Oil” It was only ten
years ago that it seemed that America was awash in cheap oil, but then the war
drove demand to new heights, demand that did not, as was expected, fall with
peace. The industry has invested heavily, and American production has risen
from 1.4 billion barrels in 1941 to 1.9 billion barrels last year, and has
invested billions of dollars around the Earth, including in Arabia. It has
certainly not been holding back on production! Secretary Krug now says that the
industry is neglecting shale oil and wants a $9 billion investment. But, in reality,
what is needed is higher prices, to encourage still more investment in all
aspects of the industry and encourage conservation.
“Austerity in Canada” When Fortune covered the Canadian austerity
programme earlier in the year, it said that austerity was axiomatically
associated with a customs union. Fortune dropped
a “not.” Fortune apologises for
annexing Canada and promises not to do it again.
“In the Name of the Economy” Fortune prints a hilarious bit about how
one executive thinks we could get over this terrible winter if we didn’t get
heartburn from hearing unions demanding higher wages and industry dropping
prices for the good of the economy, when the real motive is the understandable
one of wanting more money.
Books
and Ideas
Besides being the most stylish waitress who
ever served a breakfast Bloody Mary to a hand-sy and foul old man who is going
to regret crossing Wong Lee, your humble correspondent knows something about
the back pages of glossy magazines. She knows her Book pages! Even if Fortune puts them in the front, instead.
One thing she knows is that when a “Books and Ideas” column is divided into
paragraphs with large-font, all-capitalised, bold sub-headers, every one of
them must be about a book or an idea.
So the first one, despite being entitled “A Soviet Economist Falls from Grace,”
has to be either about Eugen Varga’s latest book, Changes in the Economics of Capitalism as a Result of the Second World
War, or the ideas in it, and not the fact that the Soviets are purging
people because Communism is awful and irrational. In other words, it is three
paragraphs about how Varga doesn’t expect a capitalist depression until 1956. Even though it looks like boilerplate anti-communism.
The next “book and idea” is Eugene V. Rostow’s
A National Policy for the Oil Industry, who
thinks that oil production is being held back, under claim of conservation, to
keep prices up, and that there needs to be more anti-trust action against the
big oil companies. And because that was a short paragraph for a long section,
(there was lots of editorialising about the virtues of the free market, but my
hand is cramping on the brush, so take it as read!), I will throw in a review
of a biography of W. H. Donald, Donald of
China, which you can probably write for yourself. I have no idea if the
book regurgitates Luce’s view of the man, but the review is pretty good on that
score. Speaking of, Dwight MacDonald’s HenryWallace: The Man and the Myth, is all about the myth. (The Wallace myth, if
you believe Fortune, is that he is
not the worst man in history.) William B. Hesseltine, The Rise and Fall of Third Parties, which is lumped in with
MacDonald, ought to get its own
section, because it is a clear discussion of the problem of third parties that sits like a lump on my tongue when I talk
about this with Reggie. (Which is why I don’t, insert your own Bloody-Mary-at-10am
joke here. See? I can have a kind thought to spare even for someone who makes
cracks about my chest and tips a nickel! I truly am a new Ronnie, fit to be a
Magnin’s girl.) Where was I. . . Hmm. I think I was more upset than I realised.
Anyway, Hesseltine thinks that third parties are only good for politics when
they have clear platforms that the big parties can raid.
. . . I don’t even know what to say about
giving Where to Eat: Dartnell’s Vest-Pocket
Guide to America’s Favourite Restaurants, so I will give it a paragraph,
and let you imagine my eyes rolling at Fortune’s
editorial decisions.
George Gamow’s One, Two, Three . . . Infinity is a very popular book right now. Gamow is
a physics professor at George Washington, and a fine populariser. I know this
book, since Reggie loved it, and I could probably say more about it than Fortune, which is fascinated by Gamow’s
account of Weizsaecker’s “nebular hypothesis,” which is that the planets of the
early Solar System were formed from the same nebula that precipitated the Sun,
rather than being torn from it by a close-passing star. The former theory meant
that planetary systems would be very rare in the galaxies, since such collisions
are rare; the nebular hypothesis, on the other hand, means that they will be
ubiquitous. Quite a change in our understanding of the universe, in that alien
civilisations go from being scarce and perhaps unknown, to being everywhere,
perhaps including flying saucers overhead right now. Brief bits cover the recent
hardback publication of three “Economic Reports of the President,” a Merrill Lynch
primer on commodity speculation that “crushes” allegations of “gambling on food
prices,” George Seide’s claim that 1000
Americans run the country and the free press, George Gray’s history of the
National Advisory Committee on Aeronautics (Frontiers of Flight), a pamphlet publishing
Justice Douglas’s speech on the centenary of the birth of Governor Altgeld, and
the report of the Mineral Survey.
Fortune’s Wheel The big story this month is that Fortune
is predicting a business recession, so it is not surprising that the staffmember
profiled this week is Fortune’s “house
economist,” Dick Gettell, who did not write the article, because he has been on
the road giving talks on the state of the American economy. Last month, Fortune’s Survey of Public Opinion predicted that Eisenhower would win the
election. Obviously, he can’t win if he decides not to run, but the Survey can’t
predict that. It has predicted the
winner of the last four elections, though, so if we go back all the way to last
month and look at the number two, the President gets back in, and it is safe to
come out for Wallace!
(Letters)
Fortune’s Wheel ends with about as many letters from readers as get into a Flight correspondence page, so I’m
calling this a “letters” feature, even if Fortune
doesn’t.
First up is F.W. Reichelderfer, of the Weather Bureau, who, while he admits that last month’s
article on weather control might eventually be seen as the turn of the age by
future historians, for the moment, the claim that we are at the dawn of an age
of weather control is unproven. The Weather Bureau is not being a “conservative
and reactionary villain” in “opposing” this brave new science. It’s just not
sure it works! Isador Lubin, a friend
and former landlady of Thorstein Veblen, was very pleased with Fortune’s profile. On the other hand,
Donald C. Williams, who is Chair of the Department of Philosophy at Harvard,
thinks that Veblen’s philosophy was “bad,” because an “alien and
ununderstanding critique of the enterprise system and free market, which, after
all, have created and maintained almost the only oasis of dignity and decency on
this earth.” Joseph Hamilton, M. D., of the Radiation Laboratory of the University of California, calls our attention to the Tracerlabs story, while
Charles B. Corvell, of MIT, reminds us that things atomic lead to atom bombs. ElbertD. Thomas, of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, criticises the “New
Strategy in Foreign Policy” for letting General Marshall off too easily on
China.and not making more of the International
Labour Organisation.
“Is the Market
Right?” This is the big review article on the economy that I mentioned. Obviously
this is a bit story for us now; no-one wants a depression! On the other hand,
we’ll know by spring, and, if I know my correspondents, some of you won’t even
have got to this letter by then! As I’m sure that you’re all on the edge of
your chairs, I will deal briefly with the story, mainly with an eye to “technology.”
The main conceit of the article is that Wall Street is down. Does this mean that
the economy will follow? After all, the story was the other way around in 1929!
Against the
possibility that the economy will follow the market is that so much of the loss
has been in speculative fads and outright frauds. (Follansbee Steel, Globe Aircraft, arguably Tucker Motors and Vanderbilt Cosmetics). The fads include feeder
airlines, recording companies, “ostensible plastics manufacturers,” and as
Uncle George has been lamenting, electronics. For it is the fact that stocks
might be getting out of line with earnings. It is hard to say what the ideal “price
to earning ratio” might be, but Wall Street is trying to look beneath the
surface of the three-fold increase in purchasing power and rocketing prices,
and is finding that while department store gross sales are up, the volume of
goods is down, in particular woman’s dresses and radios; inventories are
rising, export demand is falling off, and excess wartime savings and incomes
are are abating. So while there is still a lot of money circulating ($28
billion in cash, $86 billion in demand deposits), it is no longer going to the
market. That said, it is not also going to stocks, either, and that might mean
that the fundamentals of the economy are doing better than the stock market,
but Fortune doesn’t think so. Then it is off to the investors’
newsletters, where the bears say that important psychological barriers have been
broken on the downside, while the bulls say that there is so much money around
that there cannot be a recession, and so stocks will have to recover soon; and
that the Federal Reserve’s various deflationary effort cannot hold back the
inflationary tide. To some extent this section confuses the question of stock
prices and the general economic trends, but that just reinforces the strength
of the prediction of a recession sometime after the spring, since even the
bulls don’t rule it out.
“The Pennsylvania
Predicament” Penn Railway’s business is all in a predicament! Any of my
correspondents who might have decided to go into American rail stocks are
welcome to get their own copy of Fortune.
I am just going to invite you to look at pretty pictures of Penn operations
and contemplate the money to be made on locomotives (and
construction equipment.)
“The Wildest
Blue Yonder Yet” Fortune summarises
the conclusions of the Finletter Report. Since we’ve already heard, and heard
about it, the main points will be familiar. The industry was doing $17 billion
on warplanes in 1944, and in spite of fine hopes for private planes, airlines
and diversification, has not found a replacement for the American taxpayer. Either
the industry will be nationalised and turned into an arsenal-type operation, or
the taxpayer will have to find a reason for buying a very large number of
warplanes. Recall that back in 1947, after everyone had had their wack at finding
economies, the Army and Navy were to spend $921 million to procure a little
over 900 planes, not a lot for fifteen manufacturers to share, unless aircraft
suddenly became as expensive as battleships. But, even then, the Army chose to
spend $500 million of that on North American and Republic jet fighters and B-29
bombers, three companies out of sixteen, and leaving Douglas with nothing but a
Navy attack plane, and Lockheed the last dregs of the P-80 contract. The
remaining companies stoutly declined to go into voluntary liquidation, and
since bankruptcy was hardly an option given that planes take a long time to produce, leaving it to the Air Force
to find a way to take some planes, leaving us with “defence in 1950” and “defence in 1960,” as The Economist puts it, if the taxpayer
can only come through. General Spatatz has 20,000 aircraft, in service and in
reserve, and thinks that to maintain this force, there must be 3200 aircraft
produced a year, to retire one-sixth of the force in order to keep the reserve
modern. This might cost as much as $4.8 billion in 1953 and then drop off. (Fortune is confident that “it will do no
such thing.”) A handy chart suggests that the total national defence
appropriation will be reaching towards $20 billion by that time. ($18 billion, but
with an upward trend. When six propellers for a single B-36 cost $168,600, I
should think so!) To further support the industry, the Report suggests that all
first class mail should go by air as soon as the industry is reliable enough. Finally,
a good few paragaphs are spent on ‘planes and national security, relation of.
“39,668,993,983:
A Report on the U.S. Budget and the Chances for Reducing It” The Government is too big. You heard it
here first. One of the odd things about the budget, now that it depends so
heavily on the income tax, is that it is so hard to budget. Last year’s budget
was based on revenues of $38.9 billion, but thanks to rising incomes and low
unemployment, came in at more than $45 billion. This has been going on since
1944, but can be expected to reverse itself if there is a recession next year,
as incomes will fall. Hoover’s 1932 budget forecast revenues of $4 billion, but
they came in at half of that. This led to Hoover’s disastrous budget deficit,
but, taken together, you can make the case that this is actually good, because
a tax system that takes a big bite when times are good, and a small one when
times are bad is a good “stabiliser” for the economy. (And “causes men to worry
about the solvency of the state when the fitures show a deficit, and to think
of tax reduction when they show a surplus.”)
On the
expenditure side, the Army, Navy and Air Force have asked for $11 billion, up
from $10.7 billion, with $400 million allocated to Universal Military Training,
which Congress has yet to approve. $7 billion is added by foreign aid, which
has replaced veterans’ benefits as the second largest item on the budget,
although they are still high, and take it to $24 billion. All forms of social
security take the budget to $33 billion, with the remaining $7 billion going to
a “vast panorama of public functions,” including $2.5 billion on public works. The
Atomic Energy Commission, Post Office, and federal aid to education, if
approved, will take $1 billion together. The Department of Agriculture will
take $600 million, the Federal government retirement fund another billion, and
the remaining two-and-a-half goes to all remaining business of government from
borders to Indians to parks to food and drug safety, and “roughly a million
other identifiable services rendered by a more or less paternalistic government
to a more or less grateful people.” Is the budget too big? Well, it is up $2
bilion from last year, but it grows every year, and always has, and there is
inflation. Truman’s budgets are actually the smallest he can put together,
which leaves Congress cutting things people want if it wants to find room for
tax cuts. Identifying “waste” might be a perennial Congressional hobby, but
there is just not much money to be found in cutting small programmes, however “wasteful.”
Real savings are only to be found in real programmes, which begins with the
armed services, and that has already backfired, even if Congress has an eye on
excessive numbers of senior officers, bases, and duplication of effort.
Next come
features on the Lazari department store chain and the liquid natural gas business. I had no
idea that bottled gas had as many uses as it does. Some homes still heat and
cook with it, and farms use it to run motors, generators, and even heaters in
the field to protect crops from unseasonable frost. Still, as long as it
has to be distributed in pressurised cans and freighters, it is hard to see it
competing with electricity! So it is a bit irrelevant to us, although not as
much as the next article, which is about poker, which is apparently America’s
game.
 |
| Totally irrelevant, but well worth sharing --Wait, I mean that guy in the right is the Cominterm, and the green guy in the leftis the British investor! |
Shorts and Faces
“Lost Bread”
This is fascinating! I had no idea that the bread I see in grocery stores gets
there by “consignment selling,” in which bakeries “consign” bread to grocery
stores, and take it away again if it stales before sale. The bakery then
resells the bread as day-olds if it can, or to food processors and livestock
farmers if it cannot. The resulting loss of perhaps as much as 33% of all bread
baked was banned during the war with indifferent results, has returned in the
postwar, and is a bit of a disgrace when Europe is starving. Unfortunately,
with the (Teamster) drivers taking a profit on the volume they can push into
the stores, and groceries unwilling to absorb the losses tht the bakeries are
taking, it is not likely to change.
“Angel with a
System” Jack Seidman[?] is a public accountant with a hobby providing capital to theatrical
ventures. Of the shows he has been involved in, the one that everyone is sure
to recognise is Brigadoon.
For a
business paper, Fortune is pretty
theatrical, and finds this fascinating. So do I! So does Uncle George! Everyone
else, I do not think so. . . The next story, about Commercial Decal, Inc., of
Mount Vernon, New York, is also somewhat artistic, since the company specialises
in lithographic printmaking on “ceramic decomanias,” which are the patterns
that U.S. potteries and china decorators use to create their patterns. Formerly
imported from Europe, Commercial Decal is one of those companies that entered
into a comfortable relationship with a German company that paid off comfortably
in wartime. The company has 250 customers, which typically order 10,000 decal
sheets at a time at an average cost of $5 cents a sheet, although it can run up
to $8 a sheet for the ones printed in coin gold, including 1700 pieces with the
Presidential seal for the Roosevelt Administration’s fine dining needs. Up to 80% of all
ceramics sold these days are decorated, and potteries prefer decals because
they are cheap and easy to put on . A crew of six girls can put on as many as
10,000 a day. Cheap applications may wear off in a year, but expensive
underglaze decal jobs, baked on at 2100 degrees, will last as long as the pot
itself. Decals can be quite complicated. The company once did a 22 colour job
for Onondaga Pottery Company that used 100 different pigments. Even an
eight-colour pattern uses eighteen separate stone plates, including finally
eight 400 press stones. Which are prepared in 32 “feedings.” Commercial Decalhopes to not only displace German companies in America, but to take some of their foreign markets, too.
“Still Behind”
A brief note points out that while car production is up 65% over last year, it is
still 6% under 1941 and 9% under the 1937 peak, or 22% under the 1929 all-time
high. Part of the reason for this is that cars are bigger, with Ford’s four
door sedan up 120lbs since 1941, and part of it due to more spare parts being
produced, the equivalent of 750,000 new cars, which is something of a paradox,
since so many spare parts are being produced because so many people are nursing
their temperamental old Lincolns (mad glare at the parking lot below, makes a change on wordlessly demanding that this rain stop!), because they
cannot get new cars.
“Magnetometers”
Magnetometers, or magnetic airborne detectors, are magnetic devices that “map”
the magnetic field of the Earth below, mainly in hopes of finding a submarine
or, now, oil. Aero Survey, which has recently done a survey and map of the
85,000 square miles of “the Bahamas area,” is now working on 150,000 square
miles of Venezuela and Colombia for Gulf Oil. The contract is worth a cool million. Any oil found –who knows? Fairchild is
also in the business.
 |
| So, it turns out that MADs weren't invented in WWII, and this isn't the first airborne magnetic search for oil. Who would have thought? |
“Argus:Cameras for the Millions” Argus is a medium-priced 35mm camera maker in Michigan
with an eye to compete with Eastman and Ansco. The company grinds its own
lenses, and is doing $10 million per year in sales, with a flying start from an Army order to stock
overseas PXs. It hopes that two new camera lines and new products such as sound
projectors will further strengthen the bottom line.
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