My Dearest Reggie:
Pardon my unseemly scrawl annotating your usual. No typist, no matter how well trusted, can be allowed to see this.
Catastrophe. Horror to the pit of our stomachs as we wait for the other shoe to drop. In Moscow, in Berlin, now at home. I have a phone call from Greenwich. Your son and his fiancee are overdue in the College's Lysander. I try to take hold of myself. The whole world faces crisis as we hold our breath, waiting for the Ministry to fold or for Berlin to act.
Aeroplane 16 August 1939
The Japanese do such things. (A ludicrous story about supposed Japanese spies follows.) Yet Mr. Grey is not entirely mad, and follows up with the observation that British aircraft production capacity is certainly greater
than Germany’s, at least potentially. Yet after all that he has said about the
“artificial war scare,” who is going to listen to him? I ask Cousin Easton, who was aboard. He only smiles and points out that everyone aboard could take photos.
Article
The odious Noel Pemberton Billing, who, as you will recall, nearly did the same to me as was done to you, says that the Yankee Clipper is a quite extraordinary aeroplane. As with the leader, the choice of reporters almost makes me doubt the commonplace.
Flight 17 August 1940
Leader: “Crisis
Long Deferred.” On 9 August, Imperial ceased to accept new bookings for Empire
routes. It only has lift for air mail. The British system has broken down. Part
of this has to do with the failure of the Ensigns and the Empire boat
accidents, but it is mostly due to the weight of air mail, which has increased
in weight by 50% in the last twelvemonth. The ideal load of mail for an Empire
boat is 2200lbs, but the contract is forcing them to fly with as much as
5500lbs, squeezing out most paying passengers, something which the paper forcefully suggests could be readily foreseen. Desperate, they wish to buy
American planes, but they also need more personnel.
Is there a remedy?
The paper thinks so, because of course it does. The same outlandish scheme that, apparently, it has pressed for many years: a separation of the passenger and postal service. But this is already accomplished. Passengers fly KLM! The paper goes on to point out that by early next
year, the Ensigns will be back in service, the ‘G” boats will be in service,
and the first Flamingos may be arriving. But this will be just in time to face the Christmas
mail loads. Meanwhile, Caribou and Cabot have made the first British commercial
Atlantic crossings. Will there be air mail to Canada by next year? Meanwhile again, another “C” boat, Australia, has been damaged at Basra.
Intended for the Tasman Sea service, it was on regular flights because of the
crisis.
Now, look. I am only a part-owner of a shipping line, but I would be happy to be facing a "crisis" that involved my line having more cargo to carry than it could handle. I would charter my rivals, and deliver it all! The problem here is only that there are not the rivals to charter. And how is that a problem for a business?
Articles
“The Air Exercises." And with reason. Last year, 900 aircraft took part. This
year, the number was 1300. I find it almost impossible to imagine such a
staggering number of war planes. “Westland” had 800 machines, of which almost
500 were fighters, and the remainder mostly General Reconnaissance types,
although “friendly” bombers were included to test intercepting pilots’ ability
to distinguish friend from foe. Under the overall command of Air Chief Marshal
Hugh Dowding, it also had control of numerous barrage balloon groups and
antiaircraft units. “Eastland,” under Air Chief Marshal Edgar Ludlow-Hewitt,
disposed of 500 bombers of modern types. The highlight of the exercise, for me,
at least, was the blackout out of the London metropolitan area on Friday. The
old girl was eerie in the dark, Reggie, and engines droned overhead all night, and far out into the sleeping countryside! Bombers were coming in at any height between 100 feet and 20,000, and fighters patrolled at all heights.
The paper notes several successful interceptions, but offers specific details
of only two, both featuring Fairey Battles, leading me to think that the firm
might do better to focus on naval needs.
V.P. Hurricanes, on the other hand,
were stirring sights, springing from the ground like Furies of old.
Francis Chichester, “Raiding by Celestial Navigation.” You will know Chichester from his series of books covering his solo flights to Sydney, Auckland and Tokyo, using his patent(?) kneeboard navigational technique to find and land at tiny Pacific islands along the way.
Chichester tells us that it is currently possible, with
celestial navigation, to know the location of an aeroplane within 3 miles, or,
in ideal conditions, 2. The author believes that in the near future it will be
possible, with the right training, equipment and preparation for an aircraft to
know its location within a mile. The implications of this is that a raid of 240
bombers, each dropping 25 250lb bombs at an interval of 50 yards square, will obliterate 4.5 square miles of a chosen
target, and that any target of known location can be destroyed with “pin-prick”
accuracy. The “pin-prick” in this case being the target and the four square miles surrounding it. This is rather a large pin. You know what else is larger than a pin? An aircraft that can lift 6,250lbs. The weight, although not precise details of armament, are barely within the remit of an Armstrong Whitworth
Whitley, although it seems to fit well various rumoured replacements [
1,
2,
3,
4].
Our author proceeds to put into the mouth of a modern Simplicissimus
the fairly obvious point that a ‘plane
flying at 300mph(!) is travelling twelve miles a minute, which makes the whole
matter of “within a mile” suspect. Not so! The author now stipulates a chosen
plane carrying 8 trained navigators. This plane will guide another, loaded with bombs, on a true pinprick raid next week. That is, it will demolish only as much masonry as 6,000lbs of high explosive bombs can demolish. Which is still a lot of masonry.
Article: Latvia has
an aeroplane, which exhibits Latvia’s much vaunted efficiency, which had previously escaped my attention. Though they are, after all, related to the Finns, and as you are always telling me, Reggie,
Finns make good timber men.
Commercial Aviation
Apart from the
first Imperial/soon-to-be BOAC’s two-way crossing of the Atlantic, by
“Caribou,” and news of “Cabot’s” arrival in New York, preliminary word of a
Pan-American loss of a Sikorsky S-42 at Rio de Janeiro and of a cabin fire in a
British Airways/soon-also-to-be-BOAC Lockheed 14 on its way to Zurich. A bit of
the old Schadenfreude is had by our domestic
establishment, or at least this is the conclusion I draw from their appearance
ahead of notice of hull damage to Empire Boat “Australia” at Basra, which takes
another 5500lbs of air mail capacity out of service. The inauguration of a
London-Buenos Aires service is put off to 1943. Which, considering that we are
just now flying the Atlantic would seem to be a bit of optimistic news, but, on
the contrary, the Air Ministry is to being accused of breach of promise by a
consortium of British firms doing business in the Argentine.
Service Aviation
Further details of
the Fairey Albacore Torpedo/Spotting/Reconnaissance type, a “shipplane” with a
Bristol Taurus engine. Said details include physical dimensions, not the point
at which an Italian fleet sortieing from Taranto can expect to see Albacores
launched from a British fleet sortieing from Alexandria. I would propose that
biplanes would be easy meat for fleet fighters, except that the Italian navy
has announced that it has no need of fleet fighters.
Breda 88s,
intimated in the last number now equip the Regia Aeronautica. They are said to be a new type of a “heavy fighter bomber,” the comparison being with the
Breguet 690 now ordered for the army cooperation
groupements of the Armee de l'Air, the
Potez 690s, ordered as fighters and bombers, or the
Bf110 "destroyers" of the Luftwaffe.
The general impression is that the continental air forces have ordered these splendid aircraft, and are now trying to find uses for them.
Almost more interesting is the picture following, as it presumably emanates
from the German Air Ministry, and is captioned, “A New Bomber,” when, in fact,
it shows a revised example of the Heinkel 111. The German stud seems to be foundering, although unfortunately it has produced plenty of horses already.
Short Notes
Western Airways has
a record for commercial airlines by carrying 4,872 passengers in a single day, most
of these on the Weston-Cardiff route, which has now 58 services a day. That
cannot be right. Although it is the summer season, and every moment away from
London in August is more precious than the next.
Unfortunately, my lawyers are here, and quite angry that I met with the cousin without them. Matters, however, became quite sensitive, and, in any case, he is morbidly suspicious of Grandfather's machinations. I had not the heart to tell him that the bete noire of his childhood is a 98 year old man who needs a blanket to sit out in his garden enjoying the California sunshine. More of the same, by the way. The records of the Worshipful Company of Drovers of Rainham were found at the town guildhall
by "Miss G.C." I imagine that our cousin could have had them removed, and left them because they send the very clear message that more compelling evidence of Great-Grandfather's imposture is pending from documents long since removed. The news left me clutching, less sure than ever that we dare force the cousin's hands by trying to close the deal with Imperial. The Earl is convinced that we (and thus Imperial) must wait and negotiate. But "Miss G. C." contemplates something, but "better that we do not know," though, if we wish to, we can go to the Land Registry for ourselves. I am afraid that the Earl burst out in some most unsuitable language at that, but "Miss G. C." was not moved.
Industry News
Mr. Fedan of the
Vega Aircraft Company of Burbank, California, leaves the firm for Everell, of
Philadelphia, which I mainly note for its advertisement of the British
distributor of the “Everell single-bladed propeller,” a thing which apparently
exists. (It has a counterweight on the opposite side to the single blade. One
cannot imagine the practical use of the thing, but, if wanted, it is available
through W. O. Shackleton in this country.)
Advertisements
Various firms want
engines, aeroplanes and applications for situations vacant.
The Economist, 19 August
1939
Leaders
“The
State of Civil Defence” Last weekend’s air exercises and practice blackouts in
the South and Midlands show that the knockout blow is oversold, but also that
ARP precautions are inadequate and that it is all the fault of government. We need legislation.
“The
Paradox of Prices” Under the armaments stimulus, British employment and
industrial production has hit new records. However, while the recession of
1937—8 brought a downward movement in wholesale prices and with them the cost
of living, so far the vigorous expansion of 1939 has brought no rise in prices. What is going on? Well, the 1935 Census of
Production showed that the total value of British imports was £701 millions,
while the value of industrial output of firms employing more than 10 people was
£1,576 and that of agriculture 206 millions. These are certainly facts! They do not really explain the lack of inflation, however. The paper goes on. The size of Britain’s purchases
abroad means that changes in prices abroad have a profound effect on price
levels. When food prices fall, British consumers go on a buying spree, etc.
So, finally, the paper's explanation: the price of industrial primary products is held back by the
American recession, that of foodstuffs by heavy wheat crops; and of stocks by
the American recession. Therefore, there is no inflation. But, wait, there is more. British wage demands are moderate because wages have
not fallen from the peaks attained in the last boom, while the cost of living
has fallen. From this one would conclude that the boom goes on with no sign of inflation, and no need for action. Yet, the paper concludes, all will change soon unless the Govt acts to
reduce duties on imports and curtail consumer demand with taxes. If this autumn
sees demands for higher wages in Britain and an American recovery, we will see (finally) inflation.
And not a moment too soon! As fearful as the world has become, I cannot help a smirk. When one predicts something every week, the reader begins to suspect that what is predicted is not feared, but longed for, a divine scourge falling upon cherry red backsides. Ah, never mind, then, Reggie.
Notes of
the Week
“The
Chinese Prisoners:” The competent British authorities at Tientsin have agreed
to turn over the four Chinese prisoners for trial at a local Chinese
court. Now I am angry, instead, at this kowtowing to barbarians, for this amounts to turning four patriots over
to the Japanese. Yet it
has not appeased the Japanese, nor, in fact, has it actually been done yet. Two
further pieces cover agonized vacillations in Tokyo between trade-friendly and
conquest-friendly policy.
“Problems of Conscription:” a clerk at a shoe factory has sued his employers on the grounds that he was sacked because liable for
conscription. The paper is sympathetic to the employers (quel surprise) but thinks that
Something Must Be Done, and points approvingly to a decision to allow a boy to
enlist early because he was a few weeks shy of 20 and would be hard put to find
a job for the next year.
“The Presidential Campaign Opens.” Taft, Vanderbilt
and Dewey look to be the horses to beat, “with the enigmatic figure of Mr.Hoover in the background.” Enigmatic he is, but only to those whose eyes see not. Oh, wait, no. The paper refers to his stance in the election, and not his fabled parentage and the source of his worldly good fortune. (Up by his own bootstraps, to be sure!) Never mind, then.
The Democrats will probably end up nominating
Roosevelt. However the vice-presidency is very much open. "In short, for the
next twelve months, during a crucial period of world history, the affairs of the
most powerful country in the world will , as usual, be governed by the manoeuvres of a group of
prima donnas rather than by considerations of policy.”
The
World Overseas
“New
Trade Conditions in China” Are terrible.
“German
Price Control:” The German economy is in rough shape.
“America’s
Agricultural Problem” We have too many marginal farms occupied by stalwart sons
and daughters of the soil who should just quit, but we will not take the basic
step of getting out of the way and letting them do that. The predominant American
agricultural holding is still a freehold of 1—200 acres, based on the old
Homesteading Act, apparently.
“Production
and the Bourse:” the French index of industrial production shows us back at 100
(1928=100), compared with 83 in October of last year. This has a great deal to
do with rearmament, although just how much is not clear. The automobile
industry is up, for example. The French cost of living remains low, and
earnings from tourism are thus high. The mystery here is that production would
be still higher if private capital got into the game. But it has not, and this
is reflected in a quiescent bourse. To be sure, if private capital did swing
into action, skilled labour shortages would develop due to the 41 hour
effective week, but it is still interesting to see those two liberal
institutions, Parliament and the Stock Exchange, each sunk into torpor. Perhaps
their revival will see the revival of political liberalism.
“Unemployment
and Defence Expenditure in Australia,” commodity prices have fallen, so you
would expect a decline in business activity in Australia. But no! And the
reason is the steady rise in secondary
industry. An interesting indication of the way things are going is the
recent placing of large orders for Australian steel by the United Kingdom. Manufacturing labour has gone up from 337,000
in 1931—32 to 559,000 in 1937—38. Three cheers for rearmament. Nevertheless,
there has been an increase in unemployment in Australia. Apparently. We can’t
actually measure it, though.
Finance and Banking
The sudden death of Dr. Fritz Mannheimer has led
to the failure of the Mendelssohn banking house of Amsterdam. This is a major failure in international
banking and could have serious consequences, but was not unexpected in London.
Gold continues to flow out of London, while the price of silver is recovering.
It has now recovered above its import price –ie it will pay to ship silver to
New York and sell it to the Treasury at the Treasury’s fixed rate. This is
because India regards gold as too dear and silver as too cheap at its current
price. So how long can the Americans hold out at $35 oz for gold, 35 cents per oz
silver last? Grandfather says long enough for one more Atlantic crossing, which is why Squirrel just docked in London, straight from Vancouver, bound for Los Angeles and then San Francisco on the turnaround. I was aboard yesterday, looking in at Grandfather's cabins, hidden down in the well deck. It left me rather melancholy. Grandfather will not sail aboard again, I think. What shall we do without his brain? What is left of the pirate spirit of our forefathers? I long for Santa Clara, but that is just longing to be out of this world. On a mad impulse, I have the household packed up. Even if I cannot be California bound, I might spend the fall in the country.
Aeroplane 23 August 1939
In addition to the forgettable leader, Grey offers an article on “Super-National Socialism.” Grey appears to quite like Hitler and
Fascism, but is not sold on all of the incidental “government
regulation” to which it leads. He objects to the commonplace that this is rather what national socialism is about, and finishes with the definitive point that, if it were, our roadway speed
limits would be Fascism, and lead to Hitlerism. It honestly does the heart good to see this terrible old man reduced to filling out his editorial pages with puffery.
Article
“A Troop Carrying
Exercise.” The RAF recently did a trooping exercise. Aeroplane's version of F. de Vere Robertson, C. M. McAleery, gives us a history of the long and noble history of trooping in the RAF. Apparently, it has been the fashion of recent years to send troops of the Chitral garrison by air.
Uncategorised notes: Japan has
bought the DC-4. Hopefully they have more luck with it than Douglas.
Flight, 24 August 1939
Editorial: The Air
Exercises were an exercise, not a manoeuvre. One cannot draw conclusions about
the success or lack of it by Eastland or Westland in defending or attacking.
But Dowding, commander of the defence, did sound cautiously optimistic, and that’s
a good thing in this day and age. He holds that, given the way in which the
fighter proved its ascendancy over bombers that it could intercept, that better
interception must lead to victory for the defence. Exactly how it was
demonstrated that fighters were in the ascendant over bombers, the paper would
like to know. The whole experience suggested the way that constant harrying by
fighters and antiaircraft guns can lead to bombers dropping their loads on
unimportant places, and thus, presumably, on unimportant people. The recent
exercise using 6 Bombays to lift 120 troops fell ludicrously short of the mark.
“Although we should not omit to mention the steel helmets and rifles which, the
newspaper observers emphasized, were carried with them. Presumably the machine
guns followed separately, by boat or by train.” We need to order more, newer,
larger transport machines. The air mail weight issue is getting to the point
where we might need to reconsider carrying air mail overland.
Article: the editor puts on his reportage cap to talk about the Asboth Helicopter. So it appears that both Flight and Aeroplane have had articles spiked this week.
Service Aviation
“Where the Baffins
went.” A considerable number of the Fleet Air Arm’s Blackburn Baffins have been
transferred to New Zealand, where they frequently fly by particularly
picturesque mountains. It is good to know that the Empire has something in reserve if the Maoris start making trouble again.
Our newest aircraft
carrier, Formidable, takes to the
water.
Articles
Miles
Henow, “With a Queen Bee Flight.” The Queen Bee, as you may know, is the
radio-guided, self-piloting target aircraft which is used to trained AA
gunners. It is emphasized that in spite of the simplicity of the concept, the
engineering of the Queen Bee’s radiocontrols was a work of twenty years, and
the technology will likely be a British preserve for considerable time to come.
This seems to me to sell Johnny Foreigner rather short, and I wondered aloud at
lunch as to why such vehicles are not outfitted with facsimile transmitters to take over the army’s photographic reconnaissance work, which led your son to enlighten me on the subject of the radio spectrum
at some length.
Francis Chichester,
“Raiding by Celestial Navigation, II.” The 8 navigators in the specially-selected plane are guiding
two mammoth bombers on this
particular raid, which is to destroy a “castle” where the enemy high command
has chosen to gather, presumably in the interest of playing fair with the RAF and giving its scientific navigators a refreshing workout. As we old naval men would expect, there is much here about dead-reckoning navigation, and the latest ‘computers’ that assist in this work, but the real horror here is literally pages of spherical trigonometry ensues. Chichester intends to allow that with very precise celestial navigation, it is, indeed, possible, for the RAF to dump 6 short tons of bombs on some isolated Alpine schloss where a certain Reichschancellor has gathered with a select group of his most intimate advisors to put the final details on their nefarious plans. Whether it is possible for a cohort of trained navigators to do a continuous series of exacting calculations and celestial observations while flying over the night-time sky of a Europe at war is entirely another matter. It was hard enough on the bridge of a destroyer, which, for all the monstrous machinations of Rattler's quadruple-expansion engines, was at least not suspended between two (four?) internal combustion engines doing their best to shake themselves to pieces.
I glance quickly through the numbers sometimes, so do not precisely recall a review, or some such, of a book about night bombing (of England, of course) in which the enemy, perhaps more plausibly, uses a Norden bombsight-type device to navigate his way to the target. Does that ring a bell?
"The new
Chilton trainer" (which is not a trainer in the sense of having been ordered by
the Air Ministry) has “fighter-like” performance. Are you paying attention, Air
Commodore Buy-the-Lot?
A. Viator’s Croydon
column reports that North-Eastern Airways is now flying fresh salmon down from
Scotland for supper-time consumption. The inference being that there is someone
in London this August who could afford air-mailed salmon. We really are in a
world crisis. Also, a South African in London on business whose small daughter
is suffering from whooping cough hires a de Havilland to take her up, because
an hour at 10,000ft cures whooping cough now? I suppose that it will dry out
the throat and nasal passages, and is so worth a try, but it reads a little
oddly at first blush.
Commercial Aviation
The two designated
Tasman boats are now working up in Auckland for the proposed 27 August opening
of the air mail service between the two antipodean dominions. Speaking of our piratical ancestors. . . Although the Founder was not ostensibly in New Zealand on a pirate's mission. Extending the dominion of science and Enlightement, blather blather. No mention of certain cargoes of a Manila galleon that needed a generation's ripening. . . .
Another British
Airways Lockheed, this a 10A, has been lost to a cabin fire. This was a rather
more serious episode than the first, for the 4 passengers lost their lives, one of whom was A.C. Crossley, M.P.
 |
| A 1920 Crossley, via Wikipedia. |
The “Challenger”
Empire Boat accident in Mozambique is explained. The pilot tried to land short,
and then to abort the landing, resulting in the ‘boat bouncing off the
surface and coming to rest in shallow water. It was the fault of “gross error”
on the part of the pilot. More quotation marks.
Indicator’s column is on the need for
better radio D/F equipment and receivers for civilian planes, which will let
them make full use of radionavigation aids and ground weather reports.
More Articles
“Baltic Training Station;” an
odd article on the training station of the German coastal flying force. There
are pictures of biplane Heinkel numbers, rather odd considering that German
engineering is poised to drive all British industry into the sunset
momentarily.
“Largest in the World: Air Minister inspects New Drop Hammer.” Made in Erie,
Penn, it is being installed in the new High Duty Alloys shop at Redditch. Since
as much as 70% of a modern aircraft may be made of light alloys, High Duty
Alloys has vast responsibilities in rearming the RAF and forwarding the air age
generally. Which it does with this American-made machine.
“Minimising
Fire Risks.” The new Graviner methyl-bromide in-flight fire suppression system
is Air Ministry approved and British-made. A very timely article given the
British Airways tragedy. Needless to say, it is not on Lockheeds.
Short Notes
Captain Rickenbacker was photographed touring the Bristol engine works. Of course he was. Would Captain Rickenbacker even exist without the news photographers? Beard and Fitch
has been cutting all types of gears for 58 years, and is now doing so from a
brand-new London facility. This news story has been brought to you by Beard and Fitch, sponsors of Flight and other fine aviation industry advertising delivery systems, navigating their way to your purchasing office with pin-prick accuracy.
Situations Vacant
Many ads, over many pages, but I note in particular that the Air
Inspectorate Division has vacancies for suitable candidates. Let me underline this. The Ministry of Aviation has an entire department charged with ensuring the safety of aviation-related equipment. Not unreasonably, the inspectors are experienced plant
engineers, because this is what the task demands. If the AID is advertising for more, it is because inexperienced men are being left to do the work.
Now, I am not adverse to the idea of this insofar as military aircraft are concerned. Service pilots get their flight pay and Ministry life insurance on the pretext of the risks they are taking. And if there are risks, so too are there young men getting a look into a situation in life that they would otherwise not get. We were talking about the "Family Allowance" controversy at lunch just before I mused about this story, and “Miss
G. C.” drew out the conclusion that I was ambling towards, quoting Miss Austen's famous line about every man possessed of a
fortune being in want of a wife.
What concerns me, in the wake of all the recent accidents, is the civilians entrusting themselves to the air on the assurance of the Air Ministry. It is, of course, the case that we have AID, whereas the United States, where Lockheed makes its planes, lacks even an Air Ministry, never mind an AID, but what difference if the AID's inspectors do not know their work?
The Economist, 26 August
1939
(I am glad I have left some space here to scribble. After recovering from the initial news from Greenwich, it finally occurred to me to wonder that your son had had the Lysander prepared by removing the exhaust gas analysers removed. These are installed in detachable underwing containers intended to carry stretcher cases from aid stations back to the field hospitals. So I called at Cousin Easton's lodgings, only to find that both he and Fat Chow were unavailable. A palpable relief. But what are these children up to? Pardon my scratched writing. I am being driven down to Squirrel. We will sail on the tide. The Earl can handle Imperial.)
Leaders
“Double
Cross Roads:” Stupid fucking Soviet communists. I paraphrase like a sailor, because the paper speaks for all of us. Either Chamberlain folds again, or there is to be war.
“Agenda for Preparedness –IX,” “Industrial Man Power.” The basic war time labour problem
is to do more work with fewer men. We are going to absorb 6 million into the
armed forces over two years. The paper assumes that there will be war, as Grandfather has warned. The rest will have to maintain war production and
production for export and consumption. The unions will have to put up with
dilution.
“The Panama Canal’s Jubilee." The Panama Canal exists. Because we are old, we remember when it did not.
“Political Patchwork in Spain;” Spain will not join the Axis.
There will be no railway strike, and the paper objects to the idea, because it should be the worst paid union, not the best paid, which threatens to strike, however, there being no money in the business, neither railway union should strike, and the fact that they are not paid a living wage must be accepted as one of those regrettable eventualities of modern life. Which strikes me as a short-sighted perspective in the face of an emerging labour shortage. It is almost as though the pre-emptive measures that must be taken to defeat inflation in the future will depress wages now . One would almost imagine that there was someone, somewhere, with a certain influence at the editorial pages of The Economist, who might benefit from depressed wages. But whoever could that be?
Tokyo and the Nonagression Pact: Talks over money and Tientsin have been
broken off, the the legal hold on the surrender of the four
fugitive to “Chinese” justice has been dismissed. Tokyo is in pathetic, frantic retreat. Never mind, because like the pack of wild dogs that they are, they will regain their courage later, Grandfather says, and all of the money we have strewn about San Francisco Bay will come back to us in the form of Navy Department contracts.
There is a decline in housing
starts, with the fall in private building so sharp that it has not been
compensated by public housing starts. The paper discerns a rise in building for
let in the London market, which might be thought of as a search for new
markets, and notes that of the 4 million houses built in England and Wales
(representing a 50% increase in the total) 2 million are occupied by their
owners.
“The Flight of the Refugees” continues. For the one thing that Germany needs as it prepares itself for war is to rid itself of as many top flight people as it can.
The
World Overseas
“Poland’s
Monetary Problems”
The
economic life of Poland to-day is dictated by the needs of defence. I imagine
so. The country lacks the reserves that richer countries have used to fund
rearmament, and the country has resorted to the Air Defence Loan, which
required coercion in spite of the enthusiasm with which it was met, and is
limited in its effect by the fact that it can be used to pay taxes. It was with
this monetary strain in mind that Poland sent an emissary to London to ask for
the transfer of £5 million of gold. Some sense of the extent of
the “monetary strain” is suggested by the rapid increase in the money
circulation, from 1,417 million zlotys on 30 June 1937 to 2,328 on 30 June
1939. This, you would think, would lead to inflation, but in fact people have
been hoarding bills for years, and recently started hoarding silver coins, with
the result that there’s few bills and no small change in Warsaw. I humbly suggest that even in its direst straits, France was only afflicted with peasants hoarding bullion. When your citizens are hoarding bank notes. . . .
As our correspondent says. “There
are also a number of factors that suggest that the production policy followed
in Poland has not been as expansive as it might have been.” All the indices of
prices and the cost of living have fallen since the end of 1937, and the index
of production is only up to 126.8 (100 in 1928) in spite of enormous
possibilities for development. Production is down at many domestic
manufacturers, and unemployment, at 456,000 is not much changed from the
depression period. (470,000 in 1937). In the state of the banking system, it
has been impossible to develop new private industry in Poland. The State takes
too much money, interest rates are distorted, and until almost the end of the
great depression, Poland’s policy was explicitly deflationary, trying to get
the zloty at the level fixed in 1927. And when this course was abandoned, it
was not devalue, but to introduce exchange controls. Formal devaluation, it was
thought, would just lead to the peasants abandoning the zloty. Poland may devalue
in the Fall, though.
You know what? Sod the lot! We would not care about the sordid "everything for the rentier" money politics of Poland were it not for the fact that Warsaw is our last remaining potential ally on the Eastern Front. Poland may devalue in the Fall. Much more likely, it will be at war in the Fall, and it will regret every bit of potential work left undone in the years of peace in the furtherance of those policies. Those are the years the locust ate. Think on that when the Boche come to call.
“French
Economic Strength:” Spectacular progress has been made in production of iron
and steel, and of automobiles, too. This is down above all to the government’s
turn to short-term instead of long-term borrowing markets. The national debt
was 44,0000 million in June, an increase of 4,500 millions on 31 May and 23,500
millions on January 1st. In short, the workers are working overtime,
the peasants are favoured by high agricultural prices, and those who can save
have discovered new possibilities of building up their reserves. … the
Treasury’s ready money was 16 thousand millions, and the calmness of the
country has encouraged the current of returning gold and subscriptions to
bonds.
“Hongkong’s
Trade and the War:" Hong
Kong is suffering from the Japanese noose, especially as compared with the
glorious days of last year, when the Japanese blockaded the Yangzi and Hong
Kong became the entrepot of central China
via the Canton-Hankow railway. The occupation of Canton in 1938 ended
that to an extent, but there were many holes in the blockade at first. Things
are getting tighter, but Hong Kong consoles itself that in spite of Britain’s
disgusting supineness, Japan is reaching the limits of its strength, and that
“
the Chinese can never be defeated.” I hope. . . .
Investment
The Bank
of England discount rate has been doubled from 2 to 4%. This is not to say that
the day of cheap money and the new British monetary system is over. The move
was needed in the light of the current crisis.
British Industry
I note
coverage of the annual Radialympics. The radio firms have had disappointing
years, profit-wise. Where is the new growth to come from? Television,
obviously, but commercialization is lagging and disappointing here. Receivers
need to get significantly cheaper. Perhaps some large customer will make a large order, and drive the costs of production down.
Industry and Trade
What has
been going on for the last year? Well, it turns out that purchasing power is
up, and people have been buying. There is an agreement to do away with 60,000
redundant looms in cotton country. Eire’s wheat production is falling due to a
sharp rise in in agricultural labour wages. The herring season in Scotland is
off to a bad start. (Hah! Did I predict this, or not?) Tin stocks are down.
Aeroplane 30 August 1939
Leader: we need
bombers. Especially if there’s going to be a war. Which there won’t. It’s all
contrived by foreigners and the owners of the world’s gold, who are afraid that it
won’t hold its value if war unleashes the power of credit. What?
Flight 31 August 1939
Leader: “What
Stands if Freedom Falls?”
Article: “Higher
Commands of the Royal Air Force.” The men who will lead the RAF in war are announced.
The Chief of the Air Staff is ACM Newall, an Indian Army man via the Royal
Warwickshires, so I assume Sandhurst or even a militia promotion. Perhaps
ambition will count for more than brains, and admittedly he is of the same breed as
Trenchard. Fighter Command is under Dowding, a Royal Artillery man who passed
out of Staff College in 1914. A Woolwich brain, then, though not quite of RE
calibre. Bomber Command’s Ludlow-Hewitt is another infantry man, Royal Irish
Rifles. Coastal Command’s Air
Marshal Bowhill, on the other hand, is of a naval background, fleet, rather
than the reservists who populated a large portion of the early Royal Naval Air
Service. At Group we have Playfair, another RA man, Coningham, a New Zealander,
and Calloway, an old navy man who has served aboard Furious, Saul, an old Army Service Corps man who has commanded the
School of Army Co-operation, Breese, a fellow RN (E) man, Gossage, another
gunner, Leigh-Mallory, yet another School of Army Co-operation head, and,
recently, Thomson, killed in a ground accident just after war was declared. The commander of the air expeditionary force is not named.
Article:
Chichester, “Raiding by
Celestial Navigation,” III. Remember the pages of spherical trigonometry from
the last number? They have got us all the way to ‘Enemy Territory.’ Now we must
find our target, with even more pages of mathematics. Frankly, if the Norden
Bombsight wants to take this job away from me, I, for one, will not protest the
loss of employment.
Commercial Aviation
: the New Zealand
link is almost complete. By which is meant that the promised late-August
service is postponed indefinitely due to fleet shortages, and KLM may soon
receive a contract relating to the Christmas air mail to Australia. If there is
to be a Christmas air mail, which I doubt. More likely, the only mail going by
air will be in the form of microfiches of blueprints of war materiels. Pan American
has sent a Yankee Clipper on a pathfinding flight to Auckland.
Service and Foreign News
Germany has
a new machine gun, too! It’s the Knott-Bremse. Although the news is actually that K-B Tecknik’s unsuccessful gun has been bought in a modified form
by the Swedes. I may be in a fay mood, but I read this as a reply to the recent article about the new Vickers gun. France gets its first Douglas DB-7.
“The Aircraft
Engineer” covers “Airscrew Diameters and Gear Ratios."
Letters
An anonymous correspondent recently returned from a period in Berlin notes the aerial contrast. Whereas in Berlin it is hard at the moment to see any aircraft at all apart from a few elderly Ju52s at Templehof, the skies over the south of England are crowded with aeroplanes, with "mystery planes" whizzing about in all directions at every hour of the day. Very well, then. The runner who has saved his wind sees the finish line. But has he held on too long?
(Page over, please, Reggie)
Hove too at a certain place. Ciphered W/T with the Earl, who just had a visit from the Yard concerning a midnight altercation at a Thanet home on a longterm lease from his cousins. Now I remember that place, riding the drove path
 |
| From Britain from the Air, the absolutely awesome online gallery of Aerofilm aerial photoraphs of Britain from before 1955 |
No doubt it is still visible from the air. Was it leased even then?
Apparently, a party of lascars trespassed onto the premise, and there is a complaint from the landlord. Shots were heard, dogs barked, that a 'plane, even, was heard to take off. Some lascars! Papers are missing, and a girl. The Earl inquired as to whether it was seriously proposed that a peer of the realm was involved in white slavery? The Yard retreats in confusion, and the Earl writes to Imperial, offering to close to-morrow. I write as I wait for a boat, barely visible in the gloom, coming towards Squirrel.
If you receive this before you see me, you will know that all is well, for I entrust this letter into the hands of Fat Chow. I wish that you could have been there to see that little boat emerge from the murk, a yellow dress on an oar in lieu of an ensign, that I should know that I have now to pick up two passengers in need of a discreet lift to Hongkong, with a load of ledger books, antique legalities having to do with rotating sheep. Terribly tedious. I am doing any barrister so unfortunate as to attempt to discover them a favour by removing them to a sunnier clime.
