R_.C_.,
Vancouver,
Canada
Dear Sir:
I promised you a full report on my travels, and I wish I could supply it, but,somehow, in spite of it all, I managed to fall asleep on the plane, and was still asleep, it seems, when I made my train connection; and, somehow, did not wake up when I changed trains in Cleveland. So wafted on the sweet arms of Morpheus (it's a Classics reference), I was carried across the continent to San Francisco, at least awake enough to pick up the Lincoln, which, blessed fortune, carried me to Santa Clara, as promised, before (late) supper on New Year's Eve.
And so the news, such as it is, is that I had a wild fight with Reggie about Henry Wallace that continued in the privacy of your grandfather's old sitting room in the north wing until he put his hand to me, and . . . well. WELL. Needless to say, as intimate as this correspondence has become . . . Besides, you will have heard the details from Grace, who is far too nosy for our own good.
I do not know yet if I have finally thrown away my freedom here in California; but right now I cannot say that I regret it, as I sign myself,
YOUR DAUGHTER,
Ronnie.
Flight, 1 January
1948
Leaders
“£2 Million” That’s how much British European Airways lost last year.
Several things were not the airline’s fault. The Viking grounding, lack of ground
facilities leading to service cancellations last winter, and the “unfair system
of priorities” that leads to seat cancellations, for example.
“The Operational Side” BEA scheduled 10,191 services, of which 8,417
were completed, 208 were not completed, and 1,566 were cancelled due to
weather. Dakotas had the best service flying hours but fell well short of the
3000 hours per year that some people are talking about when estimating operating
costs. Flight thinks that this is pretty
good, even though it is hard to compare, since airlines used to calculate operational
success by comparing flights attempted versus flights completed and cheated by
using good weather days for their comparisons.
“Mixed” Britain exported loads of planes but had to buy airliners in
America.
“Foundations for ‘48” The Hawker M.7/46, Nene-powered Meteor, Balliol,
Avro Athena, Percival Prentice, Westland Wyvern, Blackburn S.28/43, Heston A. 2/45,
Scottish Aviation A. 4/45, Supermarine Attacker, Saro jet fighter flying boat
(ha!), Prestwick Pioneer, Airspeed Ambassador, Handley Page Hermes IV, Tudor
IV, Viscount, Apollo, Percival Prince, Mergansar, Sealand, Merchantman,
Marathon, Solent, Eon, Avis, Gyrodyne, AW52 and Vampire are the 1947
foundations of 1948 (cross my heart and hope to die) greatness, The Brabazon
and the super-giant Saro flying boat might fly this year. Nenes went into the
air on everything, including planes actually powered by Nenes. The Dart,
Naiad, and a Metrovick engine to be named later were tested. Goblins, Derwents
and other Nenes gave good service. So did Merlin 620s, with a civil Griffon yet
to come, and civil Hercules and Centaurus engines competing for attention.
Here and There
The new president of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association says that
air travel is just great for shipping, because planes won’t take passengers
from ships, because “traffic promotes traffic,” and, mean time, you can fly
spare parts out to Bahrain or Singapore, and that’s nice. Sir Frederick Handley
Page has been appointed to the General Board of the National Physical
Laboratory to look out for the R. Ae. S. and not, as Uncle George snorts, “Number
One.” What did Freddie ever do to George, anyway? I know, I know. Aircraft Disposal Corporation, some dodgy piston rings, and a nasty telegram about it all being
the line’s fault for storing the crates upside down. Mr. Charles Short has
started an engineers’ society in Singapore. Some 2000 workers will be employed
making long-range rockets in Australia and will live in a new township near
Adelaide. Control Products, of New Jersey, has a new aircraft fire detector
that detects a fire in less than five seconds, indicates “fire out” very
rapidly, weighs only approximately one ounce, is open circuit, requires no
relays, and is hermetically sealed. The Vickers work at Weybridge has two new wind
tunnels, including an experimental supersonic one, almost ready to go. Miles
Aircraft reminds everyone that even though it is in receivership, its Repair
and Service department is still open for business to sell you spare parts.
21,000 acres in Norfolk are now under airfields, of which 9,300 are
farmed. America now has an equivalent to the ATC, although Grace will be
disappointed that there is no word about their hats. The Falkland Islands
Dependencies relief ship John Biscoe
is carrying a crated Hornet Moth with it to those faraway islands. Mr. P. A.
Toynsbee intends to use it to make meteorological flights, while the John Biscoe relieves 25 men at seven
stations, and then returns to Britain with chats, maps and information representing
twelve months of scientific work in the Antarctic. A marine Merlin based on the
Meteor is available, giving 450hp. Colonel S. A. Gilkie, Commander of Muroc Air
Field, told the press that Aviation Week is
just making it up when it says that Bell XS-1s have been radar-measured at
supersonic speeds at 70,000ft, which would be two records. BOAC reminds everyone
that it has a nice package of educational materials related to airmindedness for
teachers. Daily Express reports that “A
woman passenger knitted three inches of a sock while a plane circled London
Airport last night . . . “
American Newsletter,
by “Kibitzer” “Details of
New U.S. Air Force Programme: Orders Sufficient to Keep Manufacturers in
Production”
The USAF has made an official statement about how many planes it is
going to buy. The total will be about 3200 per year, giving a force of 6,869
frontline aircraft and a reserve of 8,100. Right now the Force has 40 active
groups, which will be increased to 70 groups, including 20 very heavy bomber
groups, by unpickling the planes packed up after V-J Day. From there, the
bomber force will be renovated with B-50s to go with the B-29s, a new order of
100 B-36s, and with B-35s, B-49s and B-52s, if they are ever ordered into
production. A reconnaissance aircraft is needed, but there is no word on
whether it will be the Republic XF-12 or Hughes XF-11, neither of which have
been ordered, although there may be news after the New Year.
 |
| Seriously? |
XP-87 and XP-89s
will be ordered, as wll as the P-80, P-84 and the new P-86. After these conventional
types will come the sonic, and, hopefully, supersonic fighters, such as the
XP-85, XP-88, XP-90, XP-91 and XP-92, the last three of which have mixed
rocket-jet power, just like the XS-1. “Kibitzer” then admits that readers will
be thoroughly tired by now of his constantly talking about how cargo flying is
very important now and will be very important in the future, but he’s still not
sorry that he is going to say it again. The reason he says it again is that he
needs to remind everyone again that a specialised cargo plane like the ones
that already exist (which are boring) would be super neat-o, and that
Curtiss-Wright and Northrop should run out and build the CW-32 and Pioneer
right away, because if they build it, buyers will appear out of nowhere, like,
I don’t know, the black stuff in the tiles in the bathroom on my floor, which
is apparently mushrooms of some kind? So, mushrooms for Pioneers. You heard it
here first.
In somewhat related news, the XB-47, the first large, high-speed
military aircraft with sweptback wing and tail surfaces, flew on 17 December.
With a designed gross weight of 125,000lbs, it is powered by six GE turbojets
and has enough wing furniture for two regular airplanes, or half a Barracuda.
 |
| No author byline, which I assume is just an editorial boo-boo, as happened in the good old days. |
“Arctic Empires: Frank Illingworth Describes a New World Opened up by
Air Transport[?]” “Aviation has transformed the industrial development of the
polar regions from a painfully slow process to a startling realisation, if as
yet only an immature realisation.” Russia’s new towns, places such as Igarka
and Kirovsk, are thriving towns of 23,000 and 40,000 inhabitants respectively, lit against the Arctic night by arclights, with “greenhouses” and a wealth of vanadium, copper, nickel and iron mines, served by the Arctic convoys. Collective farms are “growing a species of wheat specially developed for planting in the Far North,” and a chain of metereological stations facilitate air communications all the way from Petrovosk on the Kamchatka Peninsula to Novaya Zemlaya, embedded in the Ice Barrier, across the Polar Ocean from Barentsburg in Spitzbergen. There might be thirteen of them, as large as any in Alaska, but not Goose Bay. People are wondering, reasonably enough, why the Soviets are fortifying these remote and desolate archipelagos, and the answer is that Spitzbergen (where the Russians want another base) is only eight hours flying time from Canada’s uranium mines.
 |
| Igarka today, in case you didn't check out the link. |
and Kirovsk, are thriving towns of 23,000 and 40,000 inhabitants respectively, lit against the Arctic night by arclights, with “greenhouses” and a wealth of vanadium, copper, nickel and iron mines, served by the Arctic convoys. Collective farms are “growing a species of wheat specially developed for planting in the Far North,” and a chain of metereological stations facilitate air communications all the way from Petrovosk on the Kamchatka Peninsula to Novaya Zemlaya, embedded in the Ice Barrier, across the Polar Ocean from Barentsburg in Spitzbergen. There might be thirteen of them, as large as any in Alaska, but not Goose Bay. People are wondering, reasonably enough, why the Soviets are fortifying these remote and desolate archipelagos, and the answer is that Spitzbergen (where the Russians want another base) is only eight hours flying time from Canada’s uranium mines.
I’m no Napoleon, but as I read this, I can’t help but wonder if the
mines that dig up the uranium that is processed so that it can be put into a
reactor to make it into plutonium so that it can be made into an atom bomb so that you can fly it to Moscow are
the targets you would be sending your bombers to attack in a war that started
with the atomic bombing of Moscow.
 |
| Because "Trollfjord," and someone's trolling. |
 |
| Eagle-eyed stare into distance, future |
“’Ack-Ack’ At War: General Piles’ Despatch: Defence Against V-Weapons”
General Piles’ despatch is quite long; this article is quite short, and has
very few details, apart from an exhaustive paragraph on how many temporary huts
and hard stands for guns were built, and roughly where. The AA “stop line”
across southern England was very expensive to build!
"Scientific instruments that out-think the human brain, make their calculations"
Shorter news reports that the USAAF has ordered thirty-seven FairchildC-119 Packets, developed from the C-82, but with two 28-cylinder Pratt and
Whitney Wasp Majors, Reggie’s beloved (not jealous!!!!) “flamethrowers,” allowing
them to takeoff at an all up weight of 74,000lbs. Some P-80s have gone to Fairbanks
to find out how they like the cold, and Percival Aircraft reminds everyone that
they have designed fifty makes of planes since 1932.
“General Aircraft Research Gliders: Principal Features of ‘Medium V,’ ‘Medium
U’ and ‘Maximum V’ Types” General Aircraft has built three tailless gliders
with sweptback wings in various configurations to test, you know, that, for the
Ministry of Supply. Not only do they have crew, the “Medium U” type requires
two of them!
“Oxygen for Passengers: Details of the New Developments for Oxygen
Supply in Civil Aircraft” PICAO says that all pressurised aircraft need an emergency
supply of oxygen for aircrew, but no-one has said anything about the
passengers, and Oxygenaire, of London, best known in the medical world, is
eager to help out with its “Oxyair”
facemask and “Oxycot” for babies in carriers. They are to be sold to passengers
in Small, Medium and Large sizes to accommodate all face sizes.
“Safety First: How ‘Hot-Stuffing’ Can Ruin the Smooth Running of an
Airline” Passengers complaining about unexplained delays make delays longer
because everyone yells at the maintenance crew, who are just doing the best
they can. Complaining is “hot-stuffing.”
Civil Aviation News
 |
| Short Solent cabin |
Correspondence
Three authors write to point out that, in fact, ATA records show that
women pilots were as efficient as male pilots. David Brice replies to Captain
Courtney on the subject of flying boat safety, reminding everyone that while
flying boats are safer than landplanes if they have to ditch in the water, they
are less safe if they have to make an emergency landing over land, and neither is very comforting for anyone; as for the BOAC pilot who
says that there is now a perfectly good flying boat base for Rome since the
Italians have turned over an artificial lake, Brice replies i) No; and ii): it
was a bad letter for other reasons. “The Court of the Guild” writes to ask for
suggestions about what it should do with the Cumberbatch Trophy. Giving it out
for silliest name isn’t an option, I guess. W. Van Leer, writes a
very long letter to the effect that if the airlines want to make money, they
need to be nicer to their passengers. Hallelujah! “Resurgam” disagrees with “Campanologist”
about the usefulness of the SBA, the RAF’s current standard system. My eyes
swim a bit, but I get this telling bit at the end, where “Resurgam” points out
that GCA costs approximately £200 for every twenty-four hours of continuous
watch. So that’s why everyone’s dragging their feet and pointing to alternatives.
The Economist, 3 January 1848
Leaders
“Strategy for Greece” The new strategy for Greece is to –spend Marshall
Plan money on making things nice, so the Greeks will stop squabbling? Maybe? It
took two pages to get to the last paragraph, and there must have been something said in the first umpteen paragraphs, but
only the writer and the “editor” could tell you.
 |
| Don't worry, unemployment will be back eventually, and then everything will be peaches and cream! |
“Prices, Politics and Dollars” Canada ended
price controls last year and has since seen a significant rise in the cost of
living, although not as high as in the United States. Many Canadians want to
see price controls restored, although the Conservative opposition is –opposed.
Meanwhile, Canada’s very large adverse balance of trade with the United States
has led the government to introduce import restrictions to keep dollars in
Canada. The Conservatives offer reduced export
restriction instead, but this will probably not earn enough dollars to
cover the adverse balance of trade and will interfere with trade with the
sterling bloc. Many also believe that it was raising the dollar exchange rate
to parity from its prewar official exchange rate of 90 cents US to the Canadian
dollar that led to the rapid reversal from a strongly positive balance of trade
in 1945 to the adverse balance of 1946. However, much of the positive balance may
have been due to American capital exploiting an overly low exchange rate, just
as the new one is too high, so devaluation might not bring a renewed flow of US
dollars, and so will not end the adverse balance of trade and make USD
available in Canada to buy capital goods, consumer goods, and for export to the
sterling bloc.
“Old Moore and the New Diplomacy” The date
for the British departure from Palestine has been set for 15 May, which is
important news that can’t be stretched out for a page and a half, but that’s
how much space important stories get, so The
Economist tries to be funny about astrology, instead. Better than “strategy”
for Greece!
Notes
of the Week
“Forty-Eight” Exciting things happened in 1848, and probably won’t in 1948. Did I mention that the leader about the new edition
of Old Moore complained about the newsprint shortage?
“Will Frenchman Foot the Bill” France is
having inflation. The solution for France is to mop up purchasing power with a
special levy on incomes and profits exceeding 450,00 francs per year, which
will cover the budget deficit and bring inflation under control at the same
time, but the “great non-taxpaying, anti-social classes, both in town and
country . . . will hoard and the workers starve. . . . [so that] if this latest
battle for the franc is lost, it is the battle of France itself that will
begin.”
“Sins of a Good German” The Russians, after
tolerating the CDU in Berlin for many months, have had enough in the wake of their
leader, Dr. Jakob Kaiser, denouncing the new eastern frontiers, and have
demanded that the CDU dismiss him, and his deputy, Ernst Lemmer. (Part of
Russia’s “strategy for Greece” was, apparently, getting rid of the two because
it might stop the Marshall Plan, but that was in the Leaders, and this is in the Notes,
where the Russians have shown forbearance in the past, but must now realise
that they can either run a communist tyranny in Germany, or give way on the
frontiers question, and the former will be a hard sell in “Trizonia.”) The next
story is about how the Russians are saying that Americans and British are
working hand-in-glove in Germany, but it’s not true, and The Economist wishes it were true, because the Americans are
talking about cutting all aid to Russia, while the Russians have just offered
to start their promised deliveries of food and raw materials to the western
zones, which the British want, making it a question of Marshall Plan or eastern German coal and rye for the
west, and this could easily be relieved if the Americans just listened to the
British and did what they said.
“Mr. Isaacs Spreads His Net” The Employment
Order is supposed to get the spivs and drones back to work, but The Economist thinks that it will punish the innocent and succour the guilty, as usual.
(I know it's The Spectator, but check out the link, anyway. Also the "Rediffusion" one, if you haven't.)
“Newsprint and Newsprint Prices” The price of
newsprint is going up, due to the trade agreement with Scandinavia, but competition
will keep the price of the daily papers down as long as they are restricted to
four pages, especially considering how fierce the competition is for
advertising space.
“BEA’s First Year” Yes, there was a loss, but
a loss of ten million between the three corporations was expected and budgeted,
so there is no reason to do anything drastic, even if having the airlines as
the “chosen monopoly instrument of the British government” is always going to
be bad business from a strictly economic point of view.
 |
| Any planespotters recognise the make? By RuthAS - Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11692542 |
“Ex-King Michael” In the much-abused “Strategy
for Greece” leader, King Michael became an ex-King as part of . . . Russia’s
strategy for Greece. Here, it is just a formality.
“Question for the Commonwealth” The Economist is disappointed that India
has appealed Pakistan’s involvement in Kashmir to the Uno, rather than the
Commonwealth, and hopes that something will be done to make the Commonwealth
look good to Indians.
“Mr. Bevan Speaks to Soon” Mr. Bevan’s Christmas
Eve speech to the National Federation of Building Operatives claimed that the
rate of permanent home completion is increasing. Ha! It is decreasing!
“Good Offices in Batavia” Negotiations between
the Dutch and the Republicans, mediated by Belgian, Dutch and American intermediaries,
continue, because time is on the Dutch side, because they are winning, and Europe
is turning to the Right and Centre. Except that it isn’t, really, because of the
“rising tide of Asian nationalism.”
“China’s Parliament” The Koumintang has a new
parliament, blah blah no communists blah. Also, not enough of the officially scheduled
minority parties, which means that the election returns are “not yet complete,”
and the parliament can’t actually meet.
 |
| Per the article about newsprint, advertisers in The Economist have won a very fierce competition for column space. Go Canada! Literally. |
Not mentioned under their own headings are
stories about the Local Government Bill going to committee for work, the health
minister fighting with doctors, about fees, I imagine, and the Lords deciding
that non-consummation due to contraception isn’t grounds for dissolving a
marriage.
Letters
 |
| Jeno Varga |
From The Economist of 1848
There has been a panic over military spending
due to the sudden realisation that the French can just march 50,000 men onto
steamers “in the most applepie order,” and “waft” them over to the sceptered
isle without the least concern for tides and winds, as distracted old time
invasions, and, if the Royal Navy were but distracted by yon shiny object, the
whole of them would be in London in the twinkling of a Gallic eye, leaving the
household troops in abject retreat, the capital in the hands of French spoilers,
and so on, as they say. I think it’s silly, and so does The Economist of 1848. But! And hee! “Applepie order.”
 |
| The Napoleon steam battleship (90) will be very applepie, indeed. |
Books
 |
| Lots of sexism going on in this column. |
American
Survey
“A More Perfect Union” The US Editorial Staff
didn’t have time to read the “Outline of a European Recovery Programme,”
released on Friday, which lays out what the Administration wants to do about Marshall
aid, so instead it emits a page and a half of words so that we’ll know that it’s
important. As you’d expect, they think that there should be enough money in it,
and that the way that it will be administered is very important.
American
Notes
“Third Party” So, yes, everyone on God’s
green Earth knows far more about Henry Wallace’s decision to launch a third-party
campaign for the Presidency in 1948 under the Progressive Citizens of America
banner than is their business. Or something.
“CEA’s Hopes and Fears” CEA doesn’t have a
mother butting into its life, so it is free to have hopes and fears about the
economy, instead. It doesn’t fear a depression, but it does fear that inflation
won’t subside. The Economist –The Economist! —thinks that the report
is rambling and platitudinous. Then it launches into a second note about the report, which, as far as I can tell from its
rambling and platitudinous prose (walked right into that, The Economist!), thinks that as output declines, so will inflation,
but also there will be a depression, which will be good for fighting inflation.
“Panama’s Revenge” Panama’s assembly got an
opportunity to express its opinion of the American presence in the country last
week and proceeded to vote that the Americans should get out, right now. This
is deemed to be a failure of “American policy,” and, in particular, of the
delightful American policy of exporting segregation to Panama. If the Americans
can’t be nice to Panamians, it is suggested that they either re-engineer the
canal at sea level, so that they don’t have to occupy the locks of the Canal
Zone or build an alternative canal through Colombia or Nicaragua. I’m not sure
how this helps?
In shorter notes, there is an update on
Anderson’s investigation into “inside speculation” on the commodity exchanges (I
am shocked, shocked!), the recent reversal of the declining export trend, with imports
also up, the Department of Commerce’s report that economic output is again at
the post-war peak level, and the supplementary sums voted by Congress to bring
the western dams and irrigations funding up to the level originally requested
by the Administration, wiping out the Republican cuts that “seriously imperil
Republican electoral chances in the West,” in Governor Warren’s words.
The
World Overseas
“Turkey under the $ Sign” More dollars make
Turks happier, although they cannot decide whether to spend them on more
factories or more guns.
“Split in the French Unions” The CGT is dividing
between Communist and reformist unions. The
Economist takes a strong anti-communist line; but you will remember me
prattling on about the role of communism on the French left before, so you will
know that I am wincing and thinking, “But it is more complicated than that!”
Although given that most of the French intellectuals who still embrace the Communists
are awful, not that much more complicated.
“New Start in Indo-China” The Economist hopes that M. Bollaert’s
new powers to negotiate for the re-establishment of peace will break the “deadlock”
in the Hundred Kingdoms of the South, aka Viet-Nam. “The only restriction on M.
Bollaert’s mandate is that such negotiations not include Ho Chi-minh’s
government.” The French are instead negotiating with the former emperor, Bao
Dai, and are said to be offering “dominion” status, although it is not clear
that this will apply to a “united Viet-Nam,” since the French are not convinced
that this means the same thing as the old Empire of Annam, or . . . Well, I
feel even more glib than usual explaining all of this to you! Suffice it to say that The
Economist is, for a change, optimistic about the future here, so applying
the usual “The Economist is always
wrong” rule, it’s about to go to Hell.
Only 28 years to go!
“Trotskyism in Ceylon?” What? What? I feel
like Abbott trying to make sense of Costello, but as far as I can tell, the
point is that there are three communist parties in Ceylon, and they can’t agree
with each other, with the result that several Ceylonese leaders with very long names that look like five minutes of reading to transcribe (except one is named
“Da Silva,” hurrah!) are on the outs with the British and with each other.
The
Business World
“British Transport Stock” How much will the Treasury
redeem your rail or road haulage equities for? It isn’t an interesting
question, although it is important. The answer is that it will be traded for a
3% stock, repayable optionally in 1978, and finally in 1988. People are upset
that the scheme isn’t more complicated, unwieldy and flawed, I think because if
one couldn’t report on their opinions, this would be a very short article, and
short articles about important subjects aren’t on.
“The Coal Board’s Task” Depending on how you measure
the year, the 1947 coal output total is either a little short of the 200
million ton “indispensable minimum,” or, at 196.8 million tons for the preceding
52-week period, a bit more than of a shortfall. It is still up 8 million tons, and
people might think that this means
that the National Coal Board has solved the problem, but not a bit of it. All
sorts of dark clouds are hanging about. The Economist has
suggestions about how to address all those dark clouds, and points out that one
aspect of the solution, a proposed increase in the mining labour pool to 750,000
is “impossibly high.” The average age of miner is still rising, although the recent
acceptance of Poles and Displaced Persons will improve things, and so will
better housing in the coal fields, which will encourage the movement of miners
from dying fields to new ones. Also, prices are up, but not productivity, and
various thoughts about achieving full technical efficiency through better
underground haulage, coal cutters, and the like, are offered.
Business
Notes
“Anglo-Soviet Agreement” The Economist thinks that the negotiators were rolled by those wily
Russians. The agreement allows for the Russians to sell as much as
750,000 tons, as little as 550,000 tons, at prices below, but not much below,
American prices, perhaps £15 million, carriage divided evenly between British and
Russian ships, delivery between 1 February and 30 September. Since Britain’s
consumption of feed grain in the summer of 1947 was 105,000 tons of corn
(maize) and 100,000 tons of oats, and Russian supplies will consist of 450,000
tons of barley, 200,000 tons of maize, and 100,000 tons of oats, Russian grain
will cover next summer’s needs and lay in a useful stock for the winter,
allowing British farmers to make a start on increasing their herds. Russia is
trying to buy 25,000 tons of light rails, of which 10,000 tons will be new
production, the rest from Government stocks, as well as a range of British-made
machinery and equipment for timber cutting and processing, including
locomotives, flat cars, excavators, caterpillar cranes and similar equipment. The
British will also facilitate Soviet purchase of rubber, aluminum, cocoa and
coffee. The Economist is afraid that
this will mean that the British government will allow the Soviets to go to the
front of the queue on these products and works itself up into high dudgeon in
anticipation of being appalled and disgusted.
 |
| Convict labour loads lumber on the Lena-Tayshet railroad, 1950s. |
“Recovery Corner” Production is up widely in
the last three months of 1947 but one, and was still rising in December, with
steel output the highest ever recorded. Straining to be pessimistic, we note
that stocks are being run down, that costs are up due to overtime working, and
that building is still sluggish, while no correction has been applied for the
higher working population. At this point, it is noticed that The Economist is being a bit churlish,
and it relents. Yes, there are “signs of expansion,” and it would be “captious
to ignore or belittle them.”
“Unrequited Exports” Unrequited exports are
like unrequited love. In this case, Britain’s love
affair with American wheat is –unrequited love by American farmers? That can’t
be right! The point is, Britain’s dollar deficit can’t go below £250
million/year. It is being compensated by British exports to the sterling zone
(said unrequited exports), but this doesn’t make any sense, because a positive
trade balance with the soft currency zone is irrelevant to the hard currency
trade deficit. In a separate note, The
Economist floats the idea of “directional control,” which would be,
essentially, to deny India access to its sterling reserves so that it couldn’t
buy British stuff, which would be brutal and unwise. The other thing to do is
to use Marshall aid to finance “unrequited exports” and wait for world trade to
come back to normal. The bit about India
leads to a third note, about the expiration of the short-term agreements with
Egypt and India about the sterling balances. Negotiations with Argentina
continue. The British would like to kick Egypt out of the sterling zone, which
would reduce the rate at which Egypt could draw down its money in London, but
are having more trouble with Argentina, as its sterling balance looks to exceed
the £150
million it will have to pay to get its railways back.
 |
| Utility fashion! |
Southern Rhodesia is planning an “impressive expansion” of its tobacco production, which will greatly relieve the dollar deficit by increasing the supply of sterling zone tobacco imports from 55 to 70 million tons, although given that imports from America are still 300 million tons, there is still a long way to go. Rhodesia blames British traders for refusing to buy all the tobacco produced for the British consumer that was available, for complicated reasons that seem to go back to the inclusion of American tobacco in lend-lease[. . .]. The Rhodesians would like to increase production to meet the full 300-million-ton American import, but this would require something called a “native resettlement programme,” as even the current crop requires 200,000 native labourers, who are in short supply.
Flight, 8 January 1948
Flight, 8 January 1948
Leaders
“A Tribute” Juan de la Cierva, who did not invent the helicopter, did
invent the autogiro, which is like a
helicopter, and he’s dead, so Flight can
tribute him, and run an article about autogiros while mentioning that Cierva
Autogiro Company is working on the Air Horse, order yours today.
“Going All-American” Flight is
upset that Aer Lingus is selling its Vikings, supposedly because they are uneconomical,
but Flight thinks, because it got a good
price, whereas it is stuck with its DC-3s and five Constellations, hence going “All-American.”
“An Anomalous Situation” The BOAC financial statement is out, and it
lost even more money than BEA, so it is time to complain about the British airlines’
association with Aer Lingus, which involves them in any Irish losses, and is “anomalous.”
“In Memory of a Pioneer: Cierva’s Work on Rotating-wing Aircraft” More
about Cierva.
 |
| Flight sure knows how to pick 'em. |
Here and There
Someone said that a P-80 went 780mph recently. Trans-Canada Airlines
is building a ticket office in Prestwick, so that passengers will have someone
to scream at, besides mechanics. Thomas Cooks is organising air tours now.
The Koumintang is buying planes in North America, including Canadian
Mosquitoes, which really seems like a bad idea all around. De Havilland is
building a gigantic fatigue testing rig for airscrews. The Bristol Freighter
that flew in New Guinea flew in New Guinea.
“Latest Bristol Piston Engines: Some Details of the Civil Hercules and
Centaurus Series: High Take-off Power and Low Consumption” This goes to Uncle
George’s lectures about how The Sleeve Valve Is Just Not On. On the other hand,
the Brits are bound and determined to sell Vikings and Ambassadors. So, if you
want to buy a new Viking or Ambassador, you can have a 760 series Hercules in
the former, and a 630 series Centaurus in the latter, and they will be quite
nice, except for the part where you have to machine the sleeve valve in special-purpose
plant every few hundred hours.
 |
| Two more lost causes. |
“High-Speed Research: The Design and Work of the Large Tunnel at Farnborough”
Farnborough’s new large wind tunnel, opened in 1942, is specially designed to
investigate compressibility effects at transonic speeds. It has quite a nice
supporting mount for models, which measures roll, yaw and side forces with a parallel linkage, or, as the Admiral says, “Nineteenth Century voodoo science.” It was
running from 90 to 100 hours a month until recently, when a reduced staff made
it necessary to cut back to 30 hours. Much of the recent work has focussed on
the effects of sweepback. Sweeping the wings back increases the minimum speed
for compressibility onset but has all sorts of effects on the performance of
the wing that should be known about before pilots go up in planes with wings
shaped like the daydreams of science fiction magazine illustrators. Several
workers are going flat out to see what happens when the wings are really swept
back, what happens when elevons and tails are rotated at high speeds, and what
happens with sweptback tailfins.
 |
| Very scientific control room. |
In shorter news, the eyewitness to the “bunting” airliner described by
“Kibitzer” is Herbert C. Ryland, a London accountant, who was injured seriously
enough to have to be hospitalised, and the second pilot, who righted the plane,
was Mr. Mel Logan. Flight is informed
that the RAF has not, in fact, been invited to the Cleveland Air Races. US
airlines found that while their operating revenues rose 19% last year, their expenses
rose 31.4%, due to difficulties in achieving economical operating costs as
route miles and aircraft flown have increased. Since the end of the war, the
fleet has increased by 350 four-engined and 120 twin-engined types to more than
900, while route mileage has increased from 46,000 before the war to 115,000
now. One potential source of economy is the use of “Union Station” airports
like the ones at Cincinnati and Willow Run.
 |
| Chase YC-122 Avitruc |
“Slingsby Sailplanes: Details of Current Range: The Ultra-Efficient
Gull IV” Even a silly girl knows that falling slowly is more fun than falling
fast.
“Air Work: The Organisation Behind the Many Activities of a Large
Private Enterprise” Airworks maintains, repairs, and operates a wide variety of
aircraft from airports all over the world, ranging from the ones that a company
might need to look for oil in Ecuador, to the ones that Airworks needs to
maintain air operations all over a continent. They have many mechanics, and all
sorts of gantries and machines.
“Upturned Leonides: Early Power Plant Tests” The Alvis Leonides has
been chosen for the Gyrodyne, and Alvis hopes to sell it to other helicopters,
so it makes sense that they have designed a Leonides that can be turned on its
side, so that its drive shaft points up. That is, this part is easy. The hart
part is making it run without the engine oil draining out the side, or
whatever. In shorter news, Flight’s
book reviews scold Brassey’s Naval Annual
for doing a bad job on plane statistics, but is pleased that it publishes
articles about planes and ships by Admiral Thursfield, Captain Altham, and
Francis McMurtrie. And while it is not actually a book review, the next bit is
about thrilling “lectures on scientific and technical subjects” for the “junior
set” organised by Rolls-Royce and the like. Take your junior this Christmas
(well, not actually Christmas, because Christmas is over, but maybe you forgot
to buy him a present, and a thrilling lecture on jets beats some silly old
genuine Roy Rogers lariat any day. I’m sorry, I am being sarcastic again, and
will escort myself to the door.)
“Servo-Control: Helicopter Stability Achieved in New Hiller 360: ‘Finger-tip’
Loads on Stick” The idea is that with the right set of counterweights and
pivots, the “control force” a pilot exerts on a control such as a helicopter’s
stick, is translated into enough force to wiggle the rudder. The demonstration
of this in the Hiller 350 by Frank Peterson is very impressive, as well it
should be, considering that it was copied directly from the Bell machine, plus
patented “gyroscopic action.”
Civil Aviation News
“Provisional Air Traffic Control” The provisional scheme for air
traffic control over southern Britain is out. It does not introduce any actual “Control Areas,” which will be
announced by Notices to Airmen as they become effective, but it does lay out
the Rules of the Air as will apply to Control Areas and Zones as they are
established. The first will be the Metropolitan (London) Control Zone, and it
will be established quite soon, at which point there will be considerable
controls on private flying around London, so get your slow falling out of your
system now!
“Irish Airlines Policy” Aer Lingus will soon fly two Constellation
services a week from Dublin to Boston and New York, and one direct to New York.
It will suspend services from Shannon to Paris and from Belfast to Liverpool,
and the experimental Dublin-London Constellation service will be extended next
spring, with six return trips daily carrying 58 passengers on each aircraft. Smaller
services have until now been carried out by a mixed fleet of Dakotas and
Vikings, but the release of additional Dakotas has allowed Aer Lingus to
replace its Viking fleet, so that it can economise by operating a single type. Flight is still upset. The first
Ambassador is undergoing routine modifications, Australia is changing its
airlines policy. Flight covers the
expansion of US operations again: one-and-a-half million passengers overseas,
sixteen million domestically, millions and billions of new airports, planes,
route miles, routes, with fares lower than before the war. The South Africa-Palestine
service previously mentioned is going to
be operated by a Jewish National Airways, partly owned by the South Africans
and partly by the Jewish agency in Palestine. Mr. Douglas says that transferring fuel
between tanks in flight was dangerous and should not be required in any
conditions of normal flight. More exciting news about Hunting Aerosurveys aerosurveying
Canada, which you can ask me about in our telephone call next Thursday. The
DC-6 may remain grounded until mid-March. Various air services had record years,
notwithstanding losses.
Correspondence
Geoffrey Dorman is still arguing for flying boats. Robert Russell, “a
flying boat captain in the war,” takes up the rest of the letter page, two columns less two paragraphs, to
explain why flying boats are the cat’s meow. It’s embarrassing, especially when
he shares the picture he has in his head of a gigantic flying boat steaming
right up to the terminal in a specially-designed flying boat base.
 |
| Please just let it go. |
The Economist, 10 January 1948
Leaders
“Freedom and Order” Mr. Atlee’s radio talk this Sunday impressed The Economist much more than it usually
does, because he had tedious and sententious things to say about religion
and modernism at Yale University Liberty, Communism,
Order and Other Things That Need To Be Capitalised. I’m sorry. Once you’ve had
this lecture once, you’re done with it forever, if you ask me. And you did! So,
take it from me, this is all cant. (Not Kant. He had a head on his shoulder,
that guy.)
“Local Currency Funds” I know I left my revolver somewhere around.
Just kidding! I’ve still got that little Belgian automatic you gave me! Anyway,
it is about establishing reserves in local currencies to tide the sixteen
governments over until Marshal Plan aid arrives, in great detail. If the world
falls apart next month, we can rendezvous at the lodge in Campbell River, and use
our new leisure as post-apocalyptic feudal barons go back to this issue and
read the article and find out why it happened! (I hope the long-liners are all
right with this scheme, because I don’t think I could land a king coho.)
“Canada’s Economic Future” One doesn’t normally get a chance to write
a column about how Canada is doomed and needs full technical efficiency, in The Economist, so Our Canadian
Correspondent lets rip. Canada can either end its long-term, but low price export contracts with Britain in favour of exporting to the United States at much higher prices, or not. The reason that it might not turn to American
markets is that American markets are unstable, and prone to sudden turns to
tariffs. The long-term British contracts are stable, but less remunerative.
“Towards a Bill of Human Rights” the Uno is considering whether it
should have a convention or declaration or some such, of universal human
rights. If so, what should be in it? The Russians are keen to have more
economic rights, and less civil rights. You can have a job, but also a free
trip to Siberia if you think that Comrade Stalin is a fink, sort of thing. Whereas I suppose the American alternative is that you can have unlimited
freedom of speech, but perhaps not the strength to talk, because you are
starving to death.
Notes of the Week
“Danger Signal for Europe” Congress is talking about Marshall Plan
aid, and this week’s talking sounds like less money, so, danger signal, but in
a good way, since it reminds Europe that the Plan will have to be re-authorised
each year, which will presumably discipline European use of the money. I am
going to go ahead and fold in another note about the “Change of Mood,” here,
which is about how the British are getting too complacent, and should think
about cutting imports drastically right now, to save the last remnants of the
dollar loan, in case something goes wrong with the Marshall Plan aid. I have no
idea why it thinks that, since its argument is a metaphor about drowning people and lifeboats, and metaphors aren't actually arguments. Is that what they teach in economics classes? Because I had the
impression there was more math involved. I’m also going to mention that there
is a note about the anti-communist offensive in the Labour Party, the unions and
the civil service, because maybe you've been hit on the head and forgotten the last hundred years or so, and don't know about anti-communism.
“Half-Measures for Half-Germany?” Half measures take half of Germany
half of the way to having an effective government and financial order.
“A Near Miss” Time to talk some more about not quite making the coal target. Perhaps the
current “press” will subside and production will fall! Perhaps the lower
calorific content of the coal will matter. However, at some point one has to
acknowledge that output has been rising steadily for over a year, and so has
output per shift. The union might want more miners, but it is possible that
with less voluntary absenteeism and a touch more mechanisation, the current
labour force of 718,000 will hit the 6-million-ton export programme.
“The Third Force: Victory or Defeat” I am . . . well, I hardly dare
say what I think about arguments
about “third forces” in politics. I could stand having a few more of them if
they end with as much force as the last one I had . . . But girls don't talk about that! So enough about my torrid private life! The point is
that everything is going to Hell in a handbag in France, even if there is now a
“third force” in the unions, and General de Gaulle is just waiting for his
opportunity to be another Macmahon Boulanger Louis Napoleon Bonaparte! Because
of the communists. It’s the communists’ fault. (It is funny to see the French
Communists taking up the Italian line of defending profits!) I also shouldn’t
be making fun of my friends’ worries about de Gaulle, even if I can’t take them
seriously. His is a deeply silly man, and I am sure that the French understand
that.
“The Kashmir War” Indian troops in Kashmir are being driven out of
parts of the state by raiders from Pakistan, due to the winter snows closing
the passes and preventing reinforcements from reaching them.
India’s appeal to the United Nations has arrived in Lake Success, but there is no certainty that this will stop the fighting, and if Indian frustrations boil over, they may go to war down on the plains, where they can get at the Pakistanis. It is hoped that a Uno Commission can seal the borders to prevent the raiders from entering Kashmir, and then negotiate a peace with the local Kashmiri rebels. Elsewhere on the subcontinent, Burma celebrated independence on 4 January, and your grandfather can smile down from Heaven. Another note mentions that this means that the Secretary of State for Burma ceases to exist, and that Lord Listowel moves to be Minister of State for Colonial Affairs, giving welcome support to Mr. Creech Jones, who, although he will be slightly relieved by the withdrawal from Palestine, is overwhelmed with work as he organises Africa for production. Speaking of which, a commission is off to Northern Rhodesia, where it is suggested that the laziness and inefficiency of African labour is caused by the fact that they are not being compensated fairly or given opportunities to advance. Meanwhile, the European Mineworkers Union will have nothing to do with the commission on the grounds that it stands for “equal pay for equal work,” and that, in practice, means that the African will never be paid enough to encourage “equal work.” The Economist comes around to thinking that the attitude of the European workers is the main obstacle to progress, but has no suggestions for fixing the problem, which extends throughout southern Africa. (Being against workers trumps being for Europeans.)
 |
| Gilgit, infamously oft-beleagured mountain town. |
India’s appeal to the United Nations has arrived in Lake Success, but there is no certainty that this will stop the fighting, and if Indian frustrations boil over, they may go to war down on the plains, where they can get at the Pakistanis. It is hoped that a Uno Commission can seal the borders to prevent the raiders from entering Kashmir, and then negotiate a peace with the local Kashmiri rebels. Elsewhere on the subcontinent, Burma celebrated independence on 4 January, and your grandfather can smile down from Heaven. Another note mentions that this means that the Secretary of State for Burma ceases to exist, and that Lord Listowel moves to be Minister of State for Colonial Affairs, giving welcome support to Mr. Creech Jones, who, although he will be slightly relieved by the withdrawal from Palestine, is overwhelmed with work as he organises Africa for production. Speaking of which, a commission is off to Northern Rhodesia, where it is suggested that the laziness and inefficiency of African labour is caused by the fact that they are not being compensated fairly or given opportunities to advance. Meanwhile, the European Mineworkers Union will have nothing to do with the commission on the grounds that it stands for “equal pay for equal work,” and that, in practice, means that the African will never be paid enough to encourage “equal work.” The Economist comes around to thinking that the attitude of the European workers is the main obstacle to progress, but has no suggestions for fixing the problem, which extends throughout southern Africa. (Being against workers trumps being for Europeans.)
“BOAC’s Challenge” In these pages, the main problem is the horrid
airliners BOAC is stuck with, or, in the Tudor’s case, not stuck with. The Speedbird
division is far and away the most efficient one, operating its planes for the
equivalent of 8 hours a day each day over the Atlantic.
“New Anglo-Egyptian Talks?” Various signs point to the possibility of
new talks, in which Palestine and perhaps Sudan will be on the table to address
the sterling balance issue. In Greece, meanwhile, the successful defence of
Konitza is no reason for optimism. The Americans have sent some marines to the
Mediterranean Fleet, so that’s good, but their newspapers think that they
shouldn’t send good money after bad, in which case Greek aid won’t be
reappropriated in June, and everyone will be doomed.
“Choice or Planning?” The January sales, in which women’s fashions
were dumped on the tables while men’s utilities could not be found, are
evidence that central planning doesn’t work. A related story calls for a
revision of the Rents Act, going into details about differences between rent
controls for furnished and unfurnished flats.
Letters
 |
| Included because it's a nice picture. |
From The Economist of 1848
This week features a letter to the paper, from one D.E.C., about an
article about the gold mines of Russia. While it is true that Europe is
dependent on Russia for its specie, and that this is bad, it is much worse that
it is dependent on Russia for grain, along with America. For while if America and
Russia compete to supply Europe, it can play the two colossi against each
other. Just as soon as Russia and America combine, “it will require a united
Europe to match the fleets of the Republic, supported by the legions of the
Autocrat.” Cheery!
American Survey
“The Wallace Announcement” Oh, dear Father. I feel like a Victorian
novelist, dancing around the substance of the New Year’s matter. And, yes, as
always, Grace, I know you read this, and you know what I will say. Anyway. We shan’t talk about any argument
here, for, what, the third time that I have danced around it in this letter? There
are many details here about the logistics of Mr. Wallace’s challenge, which you
can hear about in some detail from your son, who has thrown some of his considerable passion into the campaign. As to the question of whether Wallace will drain off enough
Electoral College votes to elect Governor Warren, or, here in the real world,
Tom Dewey, by taking California, Illinois and New York, well, let that alone. Or not, as The Economist ends by suggesting that Wallace’s
candidacy serves the aims of the Communists by making a “reactionary” victory
in the United States more likely, leading to the failure of the Marshall Plan, domestic
depression, and the achievement of “major Soviet objectives.” The more the American right wins, the more the left wins? How does that even make sense?
American Notes
Congress gave President Truman the cold shoulder because his radio
Message on the State of the Union was so well received. His support for a
higher minimum wage, and labour discontent over Taft-Hartley is buoying his
public support, and the GOP is on the back foot.
“Retreat from Cheap Money” The Federal Reserve has been gradually and “timidly”
retreating from low interest rates since March of 1946, allowing it to fight
inflation without checking ever-increasing amounts of credit.
“Typographers on Trial” Taft-Hartley bans closed shops, and the international
Typographical Union is dead set on them, so it has refused to sign a contract
under Taft-Hartley. Now, this is being challenged by newspaper employers, and
the result is a strike, followed by a Labour Board Referral to the courts, which
will test many provisions of the Taft-Hartley Act, and much more important ones
than blither about political contributions and Communist affiliation. The Economist interprets the closed-shop
preference in terms of fears of technological unemployment –I don’t know if
that is how the typographers would express it, so that’s why I use “weasel words”—and
points out that the Chicago dailies are using photo-engraving to get around the typographers, so that the strike is promoting the technological change that the union opposes. Ironic!
“Eggless Thursday” Thursday is eggless and poultryless no longer, even
though the campaign against the distillers continues. For though livestock
uses 80% of the country’s grain, and distilling, 3%, the distillers are easier targets. Also getting their way are the railroads, with rates
going up again, and possibly the synthetic rubber industry, which may get new
subsidies to maintain stand-by capacity. This would reduce room for “fresh
concessions to the rubber planters.” In shorter notes, Ewan Clague is the
latest person to see no evidence of a depression, soon. GE is the latest
company to combat the wage-price spiral by cutting prices, especially on radios
and televisions. And the Musicians’ Union ban on making records has gone into
effect, putting all the musicians who were working overtime to put up stocks of
master-recordings on vacation. Now we’ll see who outlasts whom.
The World Overseas
“European Coal Organisation” Would be a good idea.
“Is Australia Moving Right?” The bank nationalisation scheme seems to
be threatening the Labour Party[s dream of running Australia into the 1960s,
with a landslide defeat in the recent Victoria elections, called because of the
nationalisation bill. It’s more complicated than that, but an Australian could
probably explain better. In unrelated but thematically aligned news, the
Communists have suffered a setback in Czech politics involving ministers going
hither and thither, with dismissals and arrests. If I’m dismissive, it’s because I doubt that it will go anywhere.
The Business World
“Cheap Money Epilogue” Interest rates on equities are going up in
Britain; The Economist jumps on
table, takes swig from open bottle of tequila, does the cockroach dance while
the City tries to keep up on a cheap piano.
“Steel in 1948” 1948 production is likely to hit 14.4 million tons,
annualised, in December, for a total possibly in excess of 12.7 million tons,
against a target of 13.5 million tons, subsequently revised down to 12.5
million due to coal shortages. The 1948 target is likely to be 14 million tons,
and, provided enough pig iron and scrap can be found, will probably be met. Since export production will be limited by
steel, The Economist calls for
offering higher prices for scrap, which is not a call for “dearer steel,” it
tells us.
 |
| Wait a minute. When did they start adding soda ash to the smelt? |
Business Notes
We ;ead off with notes covering the latest negotiations over the Soviet,
Canadian and Danish contracts, with some looking forward to Egyptian, Australian
and New Zealand talks. The Canadians want higher prices, the Danes want coal,
and The Economist wants more information,
in case the Ministry of Supply is selling British interests down the river for
more bacon. Carriage of the Soviet trade will be “equitable,” not split evenly,
and the British government will give all possible aid to acquiring the goods
the Russians need, extended to wool but not, as the Russians requested, tin, as
this is to be subject to an international allocation scheme. In addition to
what has already been agreed, Russia may supply wheat, pulses, pitprops, cellulose
and canned goods, while Britain may supply oilwell tubes and tinplate. The
Egyptian agreement seems “surprisingly generous,” in giving Egypt a whopping £6
million a year in hard currency equivalent out of its sterling balance, in
excess of trade earnings. No wonder the net gold and dollar drain for December
was £40 million.
In other business news, there is a boom in life insurance sales in
Britain, just like here in America during the war. The Economist, with an eye to the declining rate of increase in
National Savings, divines paradoxical and ignorant behaviour on the part of the
public. I, as my philosophy professor would say, would be more inclined to “check
priors.” (“Objects in this self-reflection may be closer than they appear!”) But
what do I know? I’ve only had two lectures so far! But he is a very cute, bear
of a man, so unlike my literature profs. Hmm. Not my only teddy bear, of course, but.
. . There’s also a to-do about the Brits rearranging the administration of
electricity, which is just up The
Economist’s alley, and even more so some recent statistics, helpfully provided
by a contractor, showing that there has been a drastic fall in the productivity
of the building trades. So that is where the decline in full technical
efficiency has been leaking!
 |
| All clear? |
“Copper Refining without Dollars” Some copper will be shipped from
Northern Rhodesia to the United States to be refined to electrolytic copper
standards, and paid for by percentage of finished product rather than with
dollars, hence without dollars; but because British copper supplies are only being
met with difficulty from Canada and Chile, where the price is going up thanks
to a new tax on exports, it is also an expensive experiment.
“Silver Hoarding” There is a shortage of silver coins in Britain,
which the Mint is meeting by an increased emission (that seems to be a direct
translation. Someone at the old Qing Board was being very saucy!) of
cupro-nickel coins. The Economist has
no idea why there is a shortage, but
that doesn’t stop it from theorising about people hoarding silver coins against
some drastic action to cut the British money supply –as opposed to, say, massive
smuggling last spring. Check your priors! (I’m almost turned over to a new opinion
of beards. Almost.) Surely not unrelated is the end of dollar-area silver
supplies for industrial purposes as of December, which is especially dire news
given the need for 88 million ounces to repay silver obtained under Lend Lease.
“Wages in 1947” The current Ministry of Labour Gazette just proves, once and for all, the existence of inflationary
pressures in the British economy, so all you scoffers, scoff no more! In more
technical news about finance, it is speculated that the “money velocity” is
falling, which seems to have something to do with bank deposits, but nothing to
do with the ridiculous lineups before you can get your money out. Also, the
price of cocoa and chocolate is going up, and so is tin, although this is an “enigma,”
requiring “further explanation.”
Flight, 15 January 1948
Leaders
“Another £8 Million Gone” Guess how much BOAC lost last year? The worst
single contributing factor was the failure of the Tudor.
“The Dilemma” BOAC is currently operating 60 large airliners of nine
types, which might be adding to its operating loss due to the maintenance
difficulties in reaching high operating hours with so many types. The problem
is that, by reducing the number of types by buying American, BOAC will draw
down precious dollars, while threatening the survival of the British industry,
an issue for national security, not BOAC. Flight
suggests, once again, buying DC-4Ms, which are available in Canadian
dollars, and sterling in the case of the engines. It also hopes that the Tudor
II will still be bought.
“BOAC Report: Activities of the Corporation and Review of Operating Conditions
with a Statement of Accounts for the Year 1946/1947” Flight is interested in planes, BOAC with the causes of its
operating losses, which probably have more to do with the many routes which it
must operate, the nearly 25,000 employees and almost 500 ground installations. Now,
with that out of the way, it has some harsh words about the York and the Halton
in particular, but also the Sunderland/Hythe. It turns out that converting military
to commercial aircraft is hard, and, bearing Uncle George’s grudge out, the
Halton was particularly awful. In shorter news, R. A. Bruce, 78, formerly of
Westland, and Rex Pierson, 57, of Vickers have died. Bruce’s death is “sudden,”
Pierson’s not. Also dead, although for some reason not mentioned here, is G. R.
Challenger.  |
| I didn't have much luck googling Challenger or Bruce, but the latter search did lead me to the Westland Limousine (1920) for some reason. Enjoy! (The art is from Flight.) |
Here and There
Airwork has fitted out a Viking for GCA training. Two Miles executives
have resigned. S/Ldr W. T. S. Williams, producer of Target for Tonight and RAF documentary films, died after an
operation on Christmas Day. Most of the rest of the short news is appointments
and elections (Jack Northrop is to be president of the IAS in 1948!), but there
is a picture of a Chinook engine.
Civil Aviation News
 |
| Equal time for Smiths. |
“SR/45: Preliminary Survey of the Big Saunders-Roe Flying Boat Now
Being Constructed at Cowes” To quote Grace, and, believe it or not, we had the
nicest lunch, “The giant flying boat that no-one wants is still being built, to
keep Saunders-Roe in work, in case some day it actually manages to get a plane
accepted into the RAF.”
 |
| Sorry about the picture quality. Not sorry for making fun of Saunders-Roe. |
“On the Wing: AW52 Air Tests Commence: Control Systems” Flight has pictures of the AW52 in the air
and wants to point out that just the fact that you can formate with the AW52
and take aerial pictures of it, shows how much Armstrong Whitworth has done
about achieving stability and control in a tailless machine. Because the
control surfaces are flaps at the back of the wing, they lack the moment to
turn the aircraft and correct pitching at low speeds. Corrector surfaces geared
to the controls correct this by applying a very powerful force, but the
necessary trimming device might have impaired the lightness of the flying
controls. (This is like that story about the giant prewar Junkers airliner thatonly one, gigantic pilot had the shoulders to fly.) Stick-free stability is
even harder to achieve. The flying trials are testing the extent to which the
correctors should be automatic. They are also working on the low fore-and-aft
stability due to the close limits on centre of gravity movements. They are also
working on the tendency of the tips of swept wings to stall before the roots
but using slats to remove the boundary layer by suction. The slots should,
ideally, have flaps controlled from the stick, so that they open further as the
plane banks, climbs, or throttle is reduced. This requires some kind of gearing
so that the flaps “know” how to respond to various degrees of throttle and
rudder movement. They are also fiddling with the de-icing mechanism, but that’s
true of every plane, these days.
 |
| Oh, hey, Jack Northrop. Want to see a flying wing that doesn't crash? |
Arthur H. A. Bastable, “Aircraft Pneumatics: Some Current Applications”
People think that pneumatics are being driven out of aircraft by electrics and
hydraulics, but they are WRONG. Good high pressure pumps and multi-purpose
valves that will do things like seal aircraft doors better than the alternatives,
are just around the corner.
“Search and Rescue: Extended Duties of New S. R. Organisation” The
former Air-Sea Rescue Organisation is now for rescuing even if you don’t crash
in the water. The “Notes to Airmen” manages to say this in only three
paragraphs.
Correspondence
G. Reid-Walker writes to tell Flight
that it cost him £205 to operate his Piper Cub 13C for a year, and he hopes
his itemised list of expenses is better than random speculation. F. S.
Symondson writes to say that all the men who defend women fliers in the ATA
have been coerced, that women can never be as good at being ATA pilots as RAF
pilots, and all the ATA jobs should have been left to male RAF pilots who didn’t
want to be RAF pilots any more. L. Heather writes to say the same. The Editor
says: “This correspondence must now cease.” C. S. writes to say that given the
choice of which Constellation to fly on, he chooses Air France, because it has
the best food.
Fortune, January 1948
Editorial
“Who’s Utopian Now?” “American democratic capitalism is in fact the
great forward experiment of our time, that while promising no cheap utopia it
is itself utopian.” Way back in 1848, Marx and Engels said that the previous hundred years had seen the
bourgeoise achieve “more massive and more colossal productive forces than have
all preceding generations together.” So, steamships railways telegraphs opening
new continents canalising rivers “whole populations conjured out of the ground.”
Fortune points out that was the era
that ended with the Mexican War. The next century was even better! Marxist
reforms are irrelevant, because we have achieved atomic power! All those
predictions about wages under capitalism falling to subsistence levels came
true for Communist Russia, while America is rich due to private enterprise. It even
has a budget surplus! Demand runs ahead of supply! Above all, the American consumer
is king, as shown by Uncle Henry “cracking the automobile fraternity.”
In fact, the worst problem the world faces right now is that America’s
foreign export surplus has risen from $1 billion in 1938 to $8 billion in 1947,
leading to inflation as foreign markets pay with gold; and since the main exports
are food, which is scarce at home, this is a problem, too. How do we solve
these big problems? First, government must continue to play its part in
providing the “indispensable framework” of private initiative by public
services such as the TVA and Grand Coulee and social services. Second, there
must be sound fiscal policy, so in other words, doing something about
inflation. Finally, America must be willing to serve as the “shield of
democracy.”
Books and Ideas
Fortune’s back matter is
back! In the front, but close enough! Now I don’t have to be embarrassed
amongst the blue stockings by taking it instead of The Atlantic (although my status amongst the serious set is derived
from having a fiancé, and now that my secret is out, perhaps I can give up spectacles
and prim skirts and magazines with long review sections!). Never mind, false alarm.
Ideas here consists of a review of Benjamin Selekman’s Labour Relations and Human Relations, a book about fly fishing, and
a New York club that collects dime novels. Page over, and things get a bit better, with a review of Roy Harrod’sbrief Are These Hardships Necessary? Harrod
points out rationing has been made necessary by capital investments in housing,
electricity, coal mines, steel works and so on. Fuller technical efficiency, he
thinks cold contribute more to British productivity than new works, for
excessive investment just leads to inefficiency. Less capital investment is
better; and would be better, says the Harriman commission, in Europe, and even
in America. Finally, there is a kind review of Stassen’s Where I Stand, and a less kind one of the Committee for Economic
Development’s Taxes and the Budget: A Program
for Prosperity in a Free Economy, which is strange, since I don’t really
see much difference. They’re both calling for “deficit in depressions, budget
surplus in booms,” which is what everyone
calls for.
Fortune’s Wheel says that the
painters who did this month’s cover, refused to explain its symbolism, so Fortune does so, instead. It then covers
Gilbert Burck, Eileen Durning and Fenno Jacobs’ travels in Africa as they
visited Unilever’s far-flung empire. It sounds enormous, exotic, and very
tiring. In an erratum section, Fortune apologises
for crediting General Cable with inventing the “wafer” method for analysing
cable structure, which was, in fact, originated and developed by Kenneth S.
Wyatt and associates at Detroit Edison.
“Unilever’s Africa: Lever Brothers’ United Africa Co. Is the World’s
Largest Trading Company: Thousands of Natives Profit From It: But Thousands
More Dislike and Fear It”
Unilever is best known in Europe and America as a soapmaker, but is a
combination of soap and Its business starts with West African palm oil, which,
considering the African traditional economy, is paid for with goods that
Unilever has to bring in. (Workers are paid in coin; but there has to be something
to buy!) Unilever has had its difficulties in Africa, particularly with British
colonial authorities, who are reluctant to let it buy land to form plantations
like the ones that started Unilever, in the Solomon Islands, or the ones in the
Belgian Congo. But it has got there, in the end, and so far the plantations in
British West Africa have worked out fine. You just can’t tell the natives that,
because for some reason they think that it is unfair that they are paid far
less for a given job than a European, even though it is completely fair, for
reasons that I’m not sure I grasped upon reading. The company is also promoting
the groundnuts scheme, which will produce even more edible oil for soap and
margarine, and be the economic salvation of Africa, not that angry young
Africans will understand.
“$25,000 a year: AD 1948” Uncle George tells me that business
magazines like to run articles about how people are feeling “pinched” in spite
of making ridiculously large amounts of money, in this case, $25,000/year. As
he points out (I think he meant this personally!) people of means, for example,
the daughters of wealthy commodities brokers, have little appreciation of the
value of money, and spend beyond their means without realising it. So when they
complain, they are ridiculous, and everyone can point their fingers and laugh, which
makes for a good article. For example, Jim X, of San Francisco, makes
$25,580/year as the employee of one corporation and director of two others. The
“extra” $580 is from investments. By splitting his income with his wife, which
is allowed under Californian law, he reduces his reported income to two halves
of $12,500, and pays $5700 in federal income tax, instead of the $7000 to $8000
he would otherwise pay. Counting state, social security, property taxes and licenses
on two automobiles, his total tax payment is $6600. This is more detail than Daddy
has ever shared, and, actually, for this sheltered girl, an eye opener. I assumed
that the tax payment would be more like $25,579! The rest of the article
details his expenses at great length to arrive at the Xs being forced to
stretch to make ends meet, for the pointing and the laughing.
 |
| I had no idea that the "Obscenely well-paid person thinks that he's middle class because he can't budget" genre was so old. Or that Fortune had them pegged in 1948. |
“The Executive Forecast” This is the new name for the Fortune Survey, perhaps? The drift of
it is that executives don’t expect a depression this year.
“Shall We Have Airplanes” Fortune
investigates just how awful Aero
Digest has become, and concludes that the aircraft industry, which in 1934
was smaller than the chewing gum business, and in 1944 was $3 billion larger
than its next competitor, shipbuilding, has seen its working capital shrink by
$100 million in 1947, to 15% of the total at the end of 1947. One might wonder
why an industry which made so much money in the war couldn’t just live on its
fat for a decade or so, but between high taxes and the ever-increasing cost of
developing new aircraft for defending democracy by blowing up Moscow, it
cannot. Now, there is a risk of several major bankruptcies. Fortune tells the story of the private plane
bubble, the massive losses taken by the airlines, and leads us as far as the
President’s Commission, and to the verge of the purchase programme laid out in Flight that will save the day, if
Congress will fund it. Meanwhile, the curtailment of 1945—6 transport orders
(which would have put more capacity in the air than all the Pullman cars in
America, if carried through) means that aircraft are being sold at prices that are
well below break even for the time being. That is, as I understand it, the
Martin 2-0-2 is priced to make a profit at a production run of 200 aircraft,
but only 28 have been ordered. Martin has to take the contract, or it will
never make money on the 2-02, but as long as it is only producing 28, it is not. Hmm. See, if this is the way the
industry works, I can quite see why it can’t make any money without the government!
“Austerity to the North: Even the Prosperous Canadians have Met up
With the Dollar Crunch: Result: A Brutal Slash in Imports: An Important
Decision on the Future” The fact that this “radiantly healthy economy” is in
trouble, demonstrates the imbalance in world trade. The only solution, which, to an extent, Canada
planned upon, is a world trading depression to cut Canadian consumption, employment
and incomes; or else the Marshall Plan. For if it brings the non-dollar
economies back, Canadian trade with them can secure dollars for American
imports. If not, Canada must sell more to either the United States, or else to
Caribbean countries like Cuba, which have a reliable source of American
dollars. The problem is that Canada is already doing its best to sell to
America, and with limited exceptions like pulpwood, where it can do more processing
at home and realise increased added value, there are few obvious ways of increasing
this trade. It has few goods with international reputations like French wine,
British woollens and American typewriters, and its sole advantages are a lower
wage structure, which the unions don’t like, and cheap water power, which
itself is compensation for lack of cheap coal.
“Ralston-Purina: Chow and Cows” Ralston-Purina is a very large maker
of animal feeds. It does research! It also puts the secretarial pool into a
chorus line to entertain plant visitors? I’m not sure I approve.
 |
| It seems that the women's movement has taken some very rapid backward steps since 1944. . . But, heck, why not put the secretarial pool in short skirts and have them do can can dances for visiting sales reps, because what could possibly go wrong? |
The fundamental basis of its business, in case you were having trouble
coming to some kind of a conception of it –I sure was!—is “feed mills,” which
grind those “coarse grains” into all of that poultry feed that is being wasted
on chicken for Tuesdays and eggs for Thursdays. However, they also do research,
for example, into hormones, which have been used to tenderise tough old rooster.
(You feed them female sex hormones, although as far as practicalities go, that’s
on a level with finding a diet that makes chickens lay green-yolked eggs.)
“Webb’s City: $12,000,000 Drugstore” St. Petersburg, Florida, has a
gigantic drugstore that does big business. Thanks to James Earl Webb, a “dapper
individual” and a “medicine man.”
“What Power Shortage?”
The average American family uses nearly 300 kw hours more per year
than in 1939. Over two million more families appeared last year, 75% of them
rural. The overall industrial use of
power has increased 84% since 1939, and the newest industries use the most. The
capacity is simply not there, even if power generating reached 280 billion kw
hours in 1944, up 160 billion from 1939. But, at war’s end, industry needed new
equipment to maintain, never mind increase, generation while it faced a massive
accumulated repair bill. Through 1952, it is expected that generating capacity
will increase by 15 million kw, or 57% of all generating capacity built over
the last 65 years. The new capacity will cost $6 billion, and if demand
increases at the current rate, will be inadequate in 1951. There will be power
shortages this year, although they will probably be restricted to industry. Even
private utilities now think that the Federal government isn’t investing enough
in power generation.
Without New Deal hydroelectric projects, we now realise that WWII
would have taken a very different course, as that power provided all of our
aluminum, magnesium and enriched uranium.
“Home Workshops”
Many men of means are tinkerers –just don’t sit in one of Daddy’s
chairs!
 |
| In fact, Mr. Noettke's chairs are perfectly solid. He just can't get the joins smooth, in large part because his work table is warped, which he won't learn until 1951. He also enjoys it when his daughter is around to tease him about them. |
The best part of the tinkering is the power tools that you can now put
in your basement shop. Anyway, that’s what Daddy says. He loves his Delta tablesaw, and, sure enough, Delta of Milwaukee shows up in this article, although
not for a long way down. Sears and Montgomery-Ward also distribute Boice-Crane,of Toledo, Logan Engines and Duro Metal Products, of Chicago, and the St. Louis
Lathe Works. Getting back to the drift of the article, Half of the GE engineers
surveyed have workshops at home. Other home hobbyists include doctors and dentists
and Vannevar Bush.
There’s legends about men of business like Henry Ford, who used their
home workshops to invent all of their new inventions, but many of the pleasures
of home workshops are simpler. Like having pipes that don’t leak in the middle
of a building boom.
Shorts and Faces
“Ivory Hunting on the Charles” There’s a college on the Charles River,
near Boston, isn’t there? One that has something to do with “ivory,” or “iv-“
something, anyway. The idea here is that even though the supply of Harvard
Business School graduates is at an all time high of 1200 per year, still there
are three jobs for each one. Not merely due to their training, but also all the
intangibles that come with a “B.S.” man (Fortune’s
joke! Fortune! So don’t look at
me!). For example, they dress well and have nice wives. See, this is what Daddy
warned me about when I plumped for Stanford. “All right for San Francisco, but
you need an Ivy League husband if you want to make it in New York or
Washington.” At the time I just thought that it was his outsider’s
chip-on-the-shoulder. Little did I know! Then, of course, Mom took a hand . . .
B. S men, we’re told, expect $300/month. This takes the commercial banks,
which will not go over $260/month, out of the running to start with. However,
they hope for a “change in the market,” one day soon.
“Outside the Groove” Wendell Willkie’s brother, Hermann Frederick, is Vice-President
in charge of production at Seagram’s. He used to be a chemist and came out of
that with a belief that men should not be allowed to “get into a groove.” As a
result, and the point of this article, he
has evolved a process of training management at Seagram’s by
continuously rotating them into new jobs, some of them fairly menial ones
covered by the union contract. Some men quit, but others thrive.
“Battleships as Advertised” A short piece covers Julius Lipsett, the “Battle
of Newark,” and the breaking up of the New
Mexico.
“Drilling by Failing” George Failing builds, operates, and rents
drilling rigs in Oklahoma, which is funny, because his name is “Failing.” Also
worth a brief article, but not another paragraph, is Justin Schiess’s F. A.
Ringler Co., which specialises in pressing the hides of “prosaic” animals like
cows and sheep into fake alligator and lizard skins. This business makes up
only 45% of his company, since the rest is the largest embossing-plate
manufacturer in the United States, and, temporarily because of the absence of
German competition, the world.
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