Arcadia,
Santa Clara,
California.
Dear Father:
I'm told that, some day, I will look back very fondly at long college vacations and having grandparents at my beck and call when the little darling(s) get to be too much. Well, these must be the golden days. We arrived in Chicago on Friday by train, with a beaming Grandpa and Grandma and a silent and stoic driver (and distant cousin on Mother's side) waiting with hugs and kisses for James. Well, not George. That would have been strange. (Prodigal daughter held her tongue and guiltily carried her handbag at least.) Grandma is . . .
You know what? I am going to leave that sentence, and that thought, behind me. After all, I am calling her "Grandma" now precisely so that I don't slip back into that cold and slithering "Mother" of my teenage days. Chicago is exactly as cold and snowy and windy as I remember, but so what? We're off to get a Christmas tree in an hour and there is a crackling fire in my room and my robe is fleecy and thick. Probably because, like that Warm House scientist says, individual fires make homes colder on net, but I am sure that that is some kind of average across the hallway and the spare room across, and I'm not there, I'm here! All that's missing is Reggie, and he will be here on Thursday.
We'll be doing some entertaining later where I will possibly have to be polite to people I don't want to be polite to, but actually to be fair to my parents they've been very careful in their invitations over the weekend, so none of the fabled Ronnie freeze to go with the Lakeshore wind!
If there are at this late date any qualms about Christmas presents for James, I very briefly mentioned some of the wonderful new "industrial toys" out this Christmas. Doepke has a wonderful set, which I haven't succumbed to the temptation to collect because I didn't want to spend my entire allowance and deprive anyone else of the chance to do the same.
Your Loving Daughter,
Ronnie
Flight, 5 December 1952
Leaders
"Encouragement to Fly" I'd make a joke about hats, because I started making those jokes so I wouldn't have to talk about these silly bits about air force reserves and privileges and subsidies, but you might think I wasn't dealing with a Leading Article seriously enough. And you'd be right! I'm not!
"Weighty Considerations" And I'm not the only one. C. T. Wilkins, the lead designer of the Comet, recently pointed out that a single pound of weight saving on the Comet was worth £55 on a passenger flight, £38 as freight. Which is why BOAC should recruit very small people, especially dwarf stewards. I feel as though Flight is leading me gently around a terrible accident scene disguised as the obvious (and horrible) joke about fat stewardesses.
"The First Avro-Built Canberra" Not that anyone will care by next week, unless Avro somehow sells the plane to the new German Air Force, but they have delivered the first of its contracted Canberras, engines to follow at some future date.
The Pathfinders have had a Ball and the Oxford University Air Squadron has had an annual dinner. A select lot of Air Marshals popped into both and some of them gave speeches about how nice it is that all the top-hat nobs and "It" boys realise that it is an air age, and commiserate with them that the Yanks get to fly Sabres around town while they are stuck with Harvards. Hawkers apprentices also had their annual dinner, but with no toffs invited. Maurice Prevost has died, and Auster wants us to know that they have a salesman over in Japan.
Aircraft Intelligence reports that Rolls Royce seems to be operating a Griffon-powered prototype Frith helicopter, that the A3D has just made its first test flight, that various US fighters are getting new canopies similar to the one on the Republic XF-91, that the F-84F will not have wing root intakes, but will have air brakes, that the CF100 Mark 4 has just had its first test flight, that there is progress on the Max Holste 1521 Broussard, Matra Cantineau helicopter, Fauvel Av.36 glider, and the Breguet Super Deux-Ponts, which might eventually have Wright Turbocompound engines.
"The Battle of the Bangs, Round 4: A New Foray from the House of the Hunter" The controversy over the cause of the loud "bangs" being heard from supersonic aircraft continues. The current contribution is from J.W. Fozzard, a senior mathematician at Hawker, with further comment from B. A. Hunn. As far as I can tell, the conventional wisdom that it is caused by breaking the sound barrier, is at least roughly right.
"The Teacher's Dilemma" The Daily Mail says that there aren't enough advanced science teachers because they aren't being paid enough, which is why there are 273 unfilled science teacher positions in the United Kingdom right now, and one-fifth of science teachers are underqualified.
Our American Correspondent reports that due to the election there was practically no aviation news last fall, and notes that in at least one case this was deliberate, with the re-opening of Newark Airport strategically delayed until after the election, and news of its very expensive ($9 million) runway, necessary so that aircraft will no longer fly over populated neighbourhoods, was drowned out by Eisenhower being nice to McCarthy and Truman being mean to Eisenhower. Also, there are new regulations on air carriers, mainly for noise reduction, and talk of technical measures, too, because otherwise it is quite possible that all the New York-area airports were going to be closed. The Super-Constellation has had its first test flight, with 63 ordered. There are also 50 DC-7s now on order. It is advertised as cruising at 350mph TAS with turbocompounds, carrying 65 first class or 95 tourist passengers, with an 84lb/sq in wing loading, and requiring a 6400ft runway. These aircraft have been ordered, in spite of their near-certain obsolescence within five years (of service entry, I guess is meant) because tourist-class traffic keeps increasing in the United States. The Canadair CL-21 looks like it might be the next "can't fail" DC-3 replacement to fail and drive its manufacturer out of the airliner business. (OAC even utters the fatal words, "few efficient aircraft fail." BECAUSE THERE ARE FAILED "EFFICIENT" DC-3 REPLACEMENTS LITTERED ON THE RUNWAY IN FRONT OF YOU, YOU MORON!
The RAeS has heard a nice talk about the latest Blackburn wind tunnel weight balancers, and Geoffrey De Havilland has won this year's Guggenheim medal for the Comet.
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J. Vivian, "Are Flight Dispatchers Necessary?" Some people are saying that they aren't, that the aircraft captain is basically enough, but Vivian doesn't think so.
Flight really liked episode 3 of Victory at Sea. "Occurrence of High Rates of Ice Accretion on Aircraft" is out in the Professional Notes of the Meteorological Office of the Air Ministry.
Correspondence
Years ago, before and during the war, correspondent Philip Moyes flew a meteorological version of the Halifax, which he thinks everyone has forgotten. John Grierson had some experiences flying jets that he thinks that The Sound Barrier ignores or sensationalises, and someone has let Geoffrey Dorman have writing implements again, so please stop that.
(Nobs fly too!)
"At the Royal Institution" The lads heard a nice letter from C. T. Wilkins on the Comet, presumably where the "No fatties!" Leader came from. It is mainly to the effect that strict weight control was needed to make the Comet practical, and led to decisions in other areas, such as the long, thin, heavily-loaded wing, the lack of further sweepback, and constrained design around the engine outlets to reduce vibration. Even then, the load factor is low for an airliner.
Civil Aviation has bits about the ICAO forming a technical aid department to help some countries that might need it, continuing progress in reducing tourist rates, a rise in chartered flights this month, and a report that the De Havilland Rapide crash at London Airport on 1 September was caused by turbulence from a passing Stratocruiser. The Ministry of Civil Aviation has put up 11 Solent flying boats for sale at an asking price of £35,000, no reasonable offer refused, down from a purchase price of £150,000. Tourist flights are up 42% for BOAC's Atlantic services. The first Comet being built for Air France is ready for test flights. Brazil has ordered four Convair 340s.
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Service Aviation has interesting notices about HMS Glory going off for its third tour off Korea and the RAAF squadron which has been providing transportation services in Malaya for three years finally rotating home after replacement by an RAF Valetta squadron.
The Economist, 6 December 1952
Leaders
"The Claws of the Dove" The Economist is as disgusted by the Prague purge trial as everyone else, particularly noticing their anti-Semitic character. But then it goes on to denounce the Vienna Peace Conference as basically the same thing, which seems ridiculous to me! The basic idea is that all those intellectuals and artists and leftists are bad for wanting peace because wanting peace will lead to a worldwide Communist takeover, and you can tell that Communists want to take over the world because they are running a disgusting show trial in Prague.
"Cortisone for Politics" Cortisone shots are good for arthritis, and the British political system is arthritic, so The Economist is happy to hear about reforms like proportional representation that might happen.
"Neguib Against the Odds" General Naguib looks like he is at the end of his rope, and maybe he is, so maybe all the investor countries like France and Belgium should help, along with Britain and America. I'm not sure how? The Economist burbles for a minute about how Egypt needs better civil servants, but you'd have to have a hole in your head to think that Belgium could send over a batch of incorruptible and efficient civil servants to run Egypt better than the Egyptians!
"'Gas and Water' Telephones" The Economist is appalled and disgusted that some British towns run their own telephone exchanges, because telephones aren't like gas and water. Hull seems to show the contrary, since its rates are cheaper than the Post Office (which otherwise runs the telephones in Britain), but The Economist detects signs that it is "living on its capital," which obviously has to stop.
Notes of the Week
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"Templer Reports" The situation in Malaya is improving, but we shouldn't let down our guard, because they are trying to infiltrate all the left wing organisations and continue the struggle politically. Meanwhile there is not a similar situation developing in Kenya, and anyone who says that it is, is just making trouble! Although if they keep on complaining they will probably encourage a mass Kenyan rebellion into being, so they should shut up and meditate on the fact that the old Labour government was just as much in favour of capitalism and development and European settlement as the Tories. In the Saar, the fact that the major parties took 88% of the "valid votes cast." The issue, not very clearly explained is that a blank ballot was being pushed as a way of supporting German nationalist parties which had been banned from the polls. The fact that only 24% of ballots were turned in blank, as against the 40% expected, shows that Saarlanders are just fine with being occupied by the French and everyone else should now shut up and be okay with it, which I doubt is true, and doubt even more will happen! A more plausible interpretation is that the ballot is seen as strengthening Adenauer against the nationalists, and given a choice, actual German voters have no time for the nationalists.
The Economist of 1852 runs a review of Thackeray's Henry Esmond. I'm really tempted to go down to the library to pull out the volume and see if this was the biggest story of December, 1852. Thanks to years of this feature I know James Wilson like a brother, and he is perfectly capable of putting out an issue with nothing worth writing about except a book review. And it is December (Christmas presents!) and it is Thackeray. So maybe? The Economist of 1852 really didn't like it very much.
Letters
The world lets The Economist have it with both bores this week. Hugh Gaitskell takes on The Economist on convertibility, R. F. Kahn sarcastically explains why dear money is incompatible with capital investment, R. I. Gray asks how all the ERF dollars have been poured down the hole of Australian high-cost industrial development when Australia isn't even taking up as many dollars as before the war, and is building up a new sterling surplus. Joel Bernstein doubts that the American economy is as incapable of soaking up more imports as people say when the trends are pushed back before the war. The terms of trade are against the American consumer, he says. J. R. Sargent and P. Kuhn defend the EPU and the Benelux agreement.
Books
Well! If saying dumb things about economics is going to generate that kind of controversy, let's get on with it with a review of the British Economy, 1945--1950 that explains why Oxford University economics professors are so dumb! (Mainly they don't realise that because Britain has to trade with the rest of the world, everything is impossible and everyone is doomed, as the interwar period goes to show, shut up everyone who thinks that things were going fine until the Korean War.) Hugh Seton-Watson's Decline of Imperial Russia gets a review, and so does Maurice Buckmaster's Specially Employed: The Story of British Aid to French Patriots of the Resistance, both are very much in the vein of "this is not the book I would have written" with not much more constructive to say than that. Well, of course, you say, they are a history and the memoirs of a spymaster, respectively, and don't go to the magazine's expertise like its double review of Spiegel on The Development of Economic Thought and Suranyi-Unger on Comparative Economic Systems. Well, bad news on that front! (They're also too long because decadent Americans don't ration paper.) So that leaves us with Dymia Hsiung's Flowering Exile: An Autobiographical Excursion, which title doesn't give me a lot of confidence. I think most of us have encountered people given to autobiographical excursion, but only because there aren't warning buoys to steer us clear. Well, here's one with a title! And I think the review probably puts a bow on this week's section by being the first positive one.
American Survey
"Segregation in Schools" The Economist can't say that desegregating primary and secondary schools is an unnecessary fuss since everything is getting better in every way (ever more Coloureds can read; the universities are desegregating okay), and why rock the boat? But it can imply it!
American Notes
"Full up in the Cabinet" Various people are complaining about who Eisenhower did or didn't put in the Cabinet, with the new Labour Secretary in particular being seen as a thumb in the eye for Taftites. Also, Henry Cabot Lodge is going to the UN and not the cabinet, and another story covers how Americans might be taking the McCarran Committee's investigation of alleged American communists at the UN more seriously now that there's a grand jury in New York going over the same ground. Because of the famed impartiality of grand juries, you see. (The Economist will have a great American office someday when they've actually lived in America for a while.)
"Wilting Controls" The Eisenhower Administration is committed to getting rid of controls, and they're going ,but that doesn't mean that we can't have another article about the twilight of the planned economy, and in particular the difficulty the Democrats are having in handing over a still-intact system of controls for Eisenhower to dismantle. (So that the GOP takes all the blame.)
"Foundations on the Carpet" The House Committee on the non-profit foundations which corporations have been allowed to set up to take up to 5% of their profits as tax write-offs since 1935, has failed to find the expected nests of anti-American ultra-liberal communists at the Rockefeller and Guggenheim foundations, and in fact committee council Brook Hayes thinks that the committee has done excellent work in showing how good these foundations have been for democracy. The Economist thinks that they could do with a bit more scrutiny in case some corporations have decided that charity begins at home.
A huge new steel mill on the Delaware may be close to tidewater, but might also be too much capacity for the current market. Senator Morse will vote with the Republicans on the reorganisation of the Senate on 3 January so that the GOP will carry the can for the three days before the inauguration, too.
The World Overseas
"Prospects for the Gold Price" Increasing the price of gold would inject desperately needed liquidity into international trade, but Americans don't want to buy all the gold it would summon from the ground at a higher price. As long as world trade is so weighted towards America, the Commonwealth prime ministers can be expected to propose a higher gold price, and Americans to reject it.
"How Thrive the Armourers?" The Royal Commission investigating the state of the Royal Ordnance Factories has some views. For one thing, it looks like the idea that Woolwich is a white elephant and needs to be substantially whittled down, is taking hold. For another, even the ordnance plants in other parts of the country are relatively inefficient. Did you know that there are, on average, 1 Service inspector for every 4.3 employees? This is in large part because the Navy insists on having its onw, separate inspectorate, it seems. Anyway, there are 50,000 employees working in the ROFs, mainly at the engineering plants, since we have enough ammunition, and they don't make the complicated weapons, so what exact good are they? Besides the two plants that make tanks, that is.
Business Notes
Flight, 12 December 1952
Leaders
"Elastic Programme" Flight has pretty much the same things to say about the "stretch-out" of the defence programme as The Economist, and since I have done the issues in reverse order, I am going to make you wait. Flight is a bit more upset that we are still worrying about "the nation's pockets" than The Economist, though!
"Progressing in Strides" It used to be said that British aircraft designers were doomed by their failure to keep up during the war, but that hasn't happened due to some excellent interim or stretch designs. Now, the "four-jet medium bombers" promise a shining new future! Although it will probably involve selecting a smaller number of designs earlier in the process, and producing them on multiple production lines to keep up adequate delivery rates, even at the expense of more tooling costs.
"The Canberras Home Again" Remember when those Canberras left on a South American goodwill tour? Now they're back!
From All Quarters reports that the RAF is getting ready for the Coronation Fly-Past, and that Duncan Sandys' comments explaining the "stretch-out" statement on Defence Production indicates redundancies and layoffs of about 2500 in the 200,000 strong aeronautical industry due to cancellations of Meteors, Vampires, Venoms, Pembrokes, Balliols, Varsities and Canberras. Glosters will be particularly affected until Javelin production begins. Vampire Trainers and NF11s are not affected. The Vulcan is not on the super-priority list, although its production is coming along well, but some of the civil types for the New Zealand Race will probably get super-priority. Speaking of which, the rules for the race blocks and handicapping are now out. The Royal Aeronautical Society has heard two papers on helicopter ground testing, and there have been other aviation events in southeast England this week in spite of the fog.
"Gas-Turbine Lubrication: A New Synthetic Oil Developed in This Country" Esso's Turbo Oil 35 gets a full page advertorial. What is this? Aviation Week? J. C. Gibbings has given a lecture on Aerodynamics of Wind Tunnel Design at the National Aeronautical Establishment in Bedford.
Here and There reports that William Littlewood of American Airlines will give this year's Wright Lecture. Crop spraying companies are now spraying drying agents on wheat and barley prior to harvest. The spate of F-89 crashes was caused by a structural weakness in their wings. Eric Mensforth, the Vice-Chairman of Westland and President of the Helicopter Association, urges municipalities to stake out helicopter ports as quickly as possible before they run out. Dornier Aircraft is coming back into the aircraft industry. J. H. Kindelberger says that a practical intercontinental ballistic missile is just over the horizon. Derby Town Council is protesting the BEA's decision to built a power plant within a mile of the perimeter of Derby Airport, as the 425ft chimney would be a hazard to air navigation.
Aircraft Intelligence reports that the Avro Vulcan will have a ribbon braking parachute, which is an improvement on solid chutes as currently used. The second production Viscount is now flying. A Hercules-powered Blackburn Beverley is now undergoing Certificate of Airworthiness trials, while London and Rhodesian Mining has bought De Havilland's London-based Beaver demonstrator. The
Convair XF27 is expected to "fly in the near future." The latest model of the Neptune, the Lockheed P2V-6, is intended mainly for mine-laying and ASW and differs from previous aircraft mainly in "convertibility features" and avionics. It has a smaller radome and "highly fire resistant" stainless steel engine nacelles for its turbocompound engines. France is developing the Nord 3100 transport from the Nord 2500, while the latest Italian advanced trainer is the Macchi B. 323.
Convair XF27 is expected to "fly in the near future." The latest model of the Neptune, the Lockheed P2V-6, is intended mainly for mine-laying and ASW and differs from previous aircraft mainly in "convertibility features" and avionics. It has a smaller radome and "highly fire resistant" stainless steel engine nacelles for its turbocompound engines. France is developing the Nord 3100 transport from the Nord 2500, while the latest Italian advanced trainer is the Macchi B. 323.
An historical article on the FE2 series of bombers from the Royal Aircraft Factory that served in WWI, by J. M. Bruce, follows. "Older readers" have been enjoying these articles, so here's a longer one with more pictures! Which is fun and good for circulation, but not what we're here for.
"Aid to Approach" Flight reproduces an example of the new MCA instrument-approach charts, and then it is off to visit "The Indonesian Air Force" with Hugo Hooftman.
"Test House Silencing: Methods Employed on the Olympic Test-beds at Bristol" British people are a bunch of sissies about noise, so Bristol decided to do a little something about it, because, ridiculous as it seems, people were upset that they could hear them "several miles away." Basically, they put a bunch of mufflers, some on shutters, around the test bed. The text of Mr. Churchill's statement on defence expenditure, and the leading questions from the Opposition, follow. The only new thing in them (at least, once you're done with The Economist) is that the Prime Minister evaded a question from Arthur Henderson on the effect of the cuts on the front-line strength of the RAF at the end of the programme.
"Jet Transports: US Ideals" The Air Transport Association of America has published Design Recommendations for Turbine Powered Aircraft. It wants 70-80 passenger capacity in four-abreast seating, 11 cubic feet of cargo space per passenger, 5500ft runways (at sea level) for 2000 mile flights, 7200ft for 3200. There should be air conditioning, costs and avionics should be comparable to existing types, aerodynamics should be acceptable, especially in terms of limited climb rate for passenger comfort, so no rocket-like climbs to operating altitude or dives from it, to save fuel!
Civil Aviation News reports that the Comet 3 will be externally similar to the existing Comet but will have a 20,000lb payload allowing up to 78 passengers in tourist class. Your old company will be doing the Pakistan air survey, as I'm sure you've heard. The Air Registration Board has removed its ban on the Tudor, and government machines are available for purchase at £10,000, less than the projected £15,000 required to give it a proper freight door. BEA is chartering some of its Ambassadors to fly royals around. Air India is offering tourist rates while Central African Airways is cutting costs. The 13 July 1952 Proctor accident near Rochester Airport, Kent, was caused by either pilot error or fuel starvation. American Airlines is the first to ever make more than £1 million in a month from air freight alone. IATA has recommendations on runway lighting, ICAO is still arguing about the international phonetic alphabet for radio, V. A. M. Hunt gave a talk on "Air Traffic Control Today and Tomorrow" to the Royal Aeronautical Society this week. He mainly focussed on radar, which is a real help on less well-controlled air routes and will be necessary when turbine aircraft come into heavy use, as visual checks of separation distance will not be enough. He also talked about efforts to increase landing rates at congested airports. The last direct passenger service between Canada and Australia has come to an end with the scrapping of the ship involved, so the airlines had better step it up! After-season bookings for Atlantic flights are unexpectedly high as business executives switch from liners and tourists take advantage of off-season rates. Floyd Odlum says that Convair could have a 200 seat airliner version of the XB-60 in the air by 1955 if someone would just pay for it!
Air Marshal Sir Richard Saundby has given an address on "The Air Battle" to the RUSI, which, from the summary, sounds to be in the "years ago, before the war" genre, beginning in 1914 and reaching the Battle of Germany at the bottom of the third column, spending two paragraphs on it before it is off to Japan, and the conclusion that air superiority is good. Questions such as, "Can I go to the bar now?" were then fielded. 
Correspondence
So, anyway, years ago before the war, the Brisfit was quite the thing and the Koolhoven "BAT" might or might not have existed. After we get through that, there's a boring letter about actually relevant things from A. W. Selwyn, Assistant Secretary (Technical) of the OUAS. Lord Hives says that they are not getting adequately trained men from the schools. Assistant Secretary Selwyn points out that it isn't possible to train them when all the good engineers and scientists are going to industry instead of the schools and universities, and maybe he should stop complaining about the quality of university men until he has put his money where his mouth is and endowed some chairs.
The Industry reports that Lord Aberconway told the Westland annual general meeting that the company has a £10 million order book, that the Whirlwind is distinguishing itself in Korea, and that the problems with the Wyvern are almost sorted and that it would go to the fleet soon. The associated company, Normalair, is doing fine, too. Petbow of Kent has some nice generators for runway and hangar use.
Leaders
"Atlantic Alliance" The meeting of the ministers next month occurs against a background of general optimism about good results, but also fears about the future and the prospect of a fun little food fight between Germany and France over German rearmament within the European Defence Community on the one hand, and the French trying to get out of their obligations by citing Indo-China, which is completely different from the British supporting Western defence by sending troops to Malaya.
Meanwhile, Labour is being very rude in the Commons. It is almost like they do not want to let a Government with a very small majority rule like it has a very large one. Meanwhile, everything seems to be going well in Denmark, so that's nice!
Notes of the Week
President Eisenhower wants less war in Korea, General MacArthur keeps saying more war, and the new Secretary of State seems to expect WWIII. Nobody knows anything! WWIII or not, the Americans better get behind Britain over Abadan, or the communists are sure to take over in Iran, and, more importantly, London will fall down on the carpet and hold its breath until it turns blue. General Neguib is going to have a referendum on the future of the Egyptian monarchy, and Labour is due for to stare into its own bellybutton for a season or two over whether there is some connection about Bevan's return to the front benches and all the procedural wrangling with which they have been slowing the Commons. Rents might be allowed to go up in Britain if and where they can be proven to pay for necessary repairs as the British rebuild their housing stock.
At this point I thought I would point out that, according to my Funk and Wagnalls, Kenya has a total land area of 224,961 more than twice that of the United Kingdom, and a population of 6 million, less than a seventh! While in North Africa there has been rioting in Casablanca and a political murder in Tunis leading to a French crackdown on Tunisian nationalists while leaving French settlers alone. The French continue to insist that these things are only happening because foreigners pay attention to them. Maybe the fact that the French aren't doing as badly in UN voting over Tunisia shows that the world agrees with them? The horribleness of the UN is shown by the fact that the Indonesians and Guatemalans are pushing a resolution condemning British land policy in Tanganyika even though they aren't spotless themselves. And in Venezuela they cancelled the election in mid-count and the army took over the government, which absolutely isn't a coup d'etat! The Economist is sad and disappointed with everyone, up to, and including the average Venezuelan for possibly voting wrong.
The Economist of 1852 is on about "Fiscal Half-Measures." A letter from "An Old Subscriber and a Steady Reader" complains that cutting the malt duty in half won't make any difference at retail, and keeps the whole, objectionable burden on business, so all it accomplishes is a loss of revenue.
Books
Letters
J. W. Hatch explains why The Economist's proposed "Atlantic Payments Union" is idiotic. C. J. Stewart has his own ideas for constitutional reform. Roy Lewis and Angus Maude defend the bank employee wage figures they used in their book. J. H. Ray of the British Trawler's Federation explains the Federation's problems with Icelandic fishing restrictions. "A Greek" has concerns about some arcane corporate finances, L. Murray Stewart and "An Actuary" have opinions about insurance and pensions. John G. Walker thinks that cities have no place subsidising operas and symphonies if they can't make money on their own.
American Survey
"Korea at First Hand" President Eisenhower went to Korea to see what he could see. Americans were very relieved that he didn't die. (I wasn't! I never understood that fuss at all. President Roosevelt flew to Teheran in the middle of a war!) Then he relieved everyone even more by sending out a very moderate press release. He's not going to bomb more, he's certainly not going to bomb China, he is going to continue to increase Republic of Korea troops as quickly as he can, and he is not taking the offer of Koumintang troops that the GOP (but not Chiang) keep presenting him with. For one thing, it says here diplomatically, Koumintang troops aren't battle-ready yet. For another, it would just restart the Civil War.
"Shopping Goes Suburban" There are shops in the suburbs now that everyone is going out to live there. It says so right here, so it must be true!
American Notes
"Labour Under New Management" The presidents of the CIO and AFL have died within a short time of each other, They're still upset at the Truman Administration, mainly for the unfairly large settlement with the UFW, and are feeling out more unification. Government is too big these days but the GOP probably can't reverse the trend. Business is doing its best not to break out in a chorus of demands for tariff protection, so as not to embarrass the new Administration. A post-mortem of the last election shows that existing spending limits on campaigns are unrealistic. The price of meat is too high, Alger Hiss has refused probation because he won't admit that he is guilty, 95% of American bank accounts are covered by Federal deposit insurance, and Senator Wiley has launched a boycott of "Red" Christmas ornaments being imported from eastern Europe to put $75 million in "Communist coffers."
The World Overseas
"Dollars for Defence Industries" The Economist explains that "offshore procurement," in which America pays for European guns from European factories, is "Europe's third chance" to overcome its chronic dollar deficit. Will it work? The first two chances did nothing to reform industrial structure or the terms of trade. This one could, by building up European capital goods industries and allowing them to compete around the world more efficiently, later. Two articles cover the peace treaty ratification debates in the German Parliament, which have had many twists and turns, including for some reason straying into the territory of German reluctance to pay for defence. There is also a discussion of France, where Premier Pinay is "becalmed" in spite of winning the confidence vote on his new budget, because his tax reforms are so controversial. Of them, the most interesting and perhaps important is a sort-of value-added tax on all sales, which could finally get at the subterranean streams of the economy that have so frustrated the French tax collector over the years. We'll see how that goes! He is also promising a reduction in spending in Indo China thanks to the new Viet Namese army and American aid.
"Revolution in Chinese Villages" The Batchworth Press has a book on Chinese land reform based on Chinese official statistics. It does not sound like it is going well, except for the cadres, who seem to be following the trail to prosperity blazed by the Soviet bureaucracy. Pakistan seems to have weathered the financial crisis brought on by the failure to sell the jute and cotton crops. The World Peace Conference in Vienna turns out to be Communistic and not pacific, and also a bit dispirited because of the Slansky trials.
The Business World
"Can Cinemas Pay?" Arthur Rank says that since a third of the earnings of British cinemas in 1950--1 came from ice cream sales at the cinema, movies don't actually pay and after going round and round the numbers for a while, The Economist agrees with Rank that the Entertainment Duty (which subsidises exhibitors) has to come down.
Business Notes
The proposal for a Finance Corporation for Industry to support development in the Commonwealth gets the lead Note because it comes straight from the desk of the publisher's nephew, I guess. Commodity prices are "improving." Japan might be a new and dangerous competitor in textiles, but now there's a chance to play with Japanese bonds, and who can pass that up? Exports are down in November on preliminary data. Steel output is hitting its 16.1 million ton target. Coal consumption is finally cutting into stocks again. Although the reason for that is cold weather, The Economist is wiggling like a puppy over the chance to run another "Coal Doom!" Note. The last Utility scheme, in furniture, is over. The recent flood of soap suds on the River Lea is probably a bad thing! Probably something should be done!
Wool textile workers are going back to work, shop sales are up, the swap of 15,000 Brazilian cotton for 70 Meteor jets will probably go ahead if the Brazilians can guarantee good cotton. The Brazilians would like to sell mixed cotton, which might be acceptable if we don't end up with bad cotton. The price of Persian lambskin is up, French sterling holdings have been unblocked, zinc is off control, trends in manpower are for labour to shift out of textiles, although the growth in engineering manpower slowed in the last two months of the year.
Business Reports wonders if it is time to call the turn to recession. Yes, business profits are up, but so are inventories, and farm income is down, presaging lower consumer demand. Capital outlays are falling, the machine tool backlog is "melting." Eisenhower weather might be chilly weather.
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Fortune has advice for the Eisenhower Administration: i) Don't cut taxes to pre-Korean War , like the Republican chair of the Ways and Means Committee urges. Reform the income tax, let the Excess Profits Tax expire, enhance the current prosperity without letting inflation take hold. Don't listen to silly people who say that the electorate voted wrong. Don't listen to the New York Stock Exchange, which only represents itself; or business executives who think that labour has nothing to complain about when they could just buy stocks. (Which are often out of reach of the working man's pocket.) Also, Corliss Lamont is terrible, not least because Fortune is going to miss The Daily Compass. Communism is terrible, especially the Czech kind. Corporations should give more money to colleges, and probably will, with tax changes. That story about how the next two months are the "stabiliser's last stand" again.
"Business After the Defence Boom" There's probably going to be a recession, Fortune repeats for roughly the millionth time. It sure looks like there will be!
The problem is mainly falling defence spending, but it does not look as though other parts of the economy can make up for the loss of defence spending. Industrial capacity is built up, consumers are stuffed with stuff, savings are falling (relatively), cars are too expensive these days, there's no place for new homes, customers are worried about the future, and population growth is falling. Business needs to innovate, might want to think about getting into electrical generation, and stick with consumer durables, which will probably hold steady on the spending side, at least. It will probably be a "middling" recession.
There's the obligatory story on the art of selling, and then a look at the recording industry, which is doing its best to keep up with the demand for classical recordings, and is making heavy use of magnetic tape recording to produce new recordings in a timely way. A large part of the reason that a recording of Stravinsky's Fifth that would have gone for $12 in 1939, will go for $6 today, is that pieces can be spliced together from tape instead of requiring repeated individual recordings. Also, the covers of record albums are very nice these days. And speaking of unexpectedly beautiful things, a piece on the new industrial toys that are not news to the mother of a two-year-old-boy, but might be to a proud grandfather. There really are some beautiful toy bulldozers out there these days!
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"The Instrument Frontier" looks at the helium refrigerator, mass spectrometer, ultracentrifuge, helium cryostat and x-ray diffraction. Did you know that x-ray diffraction might be taking pictures of the structure of molecules soon? Linus Pauling of CIT thinks we're on the verge of understanding even the big protein molecules. John Rust is the king of cotton picking machines.
Ronson is in trouble from cheap Japanese imports, and Fred Musser is the biggest Christmas tree grower of all, and Fortune asks whether head office should follow all the houses and the shopping to the suburbs. Probably!
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