Postblogging Technology, February 1954, I: Howard and Me

R_.C_.,
Shaughnessy,
Vancouver,
Canada




Dear Father:

We are finally and securely back in London. It is February, James' appointment is a quarter done, and I am pleased to report, as  you've no doubt heard, that I have found part-time work to keep my hand in. Since, unlike some magazines, I can read between the lines, I thought that Aviation Finance would be fun, because if there is a place in Britain where we might have the next "Affair of the Poisons," it will be here. (Don't look it up in the Encyclopedia; read a novel if you're inclined to learn more, and notice that I didn't say "know.") 

Around the old lodgings, the children are flourishing, our host not so much, as he has been taking quite a ribbing for suggesting that the Comet crashed because it is a hunk of junk, and not because dastardly saboteurs blew it up. I have tried not to have an argument with him, and have prevailed on James to do the same, because there is some reason to think that de Havilland has not delivered the soundest of planes, and I guess time will tell, which seems to be the theme around here right now. And also because it is hard to get a place in London right now! Anyway it's probably the it's-not-going-to-be-a-real-recession getting us all down in the dumps about the future. 

At least we'll have tupperware parties to make fun of! (I would make fun of Howard Hughes, but frankly he sounds ill, not eccentric.)

Your Loving Daughter,

Ronnie

The Economist, 6 February 1954

Leaders

"Weapons to End War" This isn't the article about the British Army adopting the FN .30 rifle and denouncing as "laughably far off the mark" Shinwell and George Chetwynd's suggestion that the Army had been buffaloed by American pressure and that the .30 calibre rifle was too heavy, could not be fired automatically, shot a bullet that was too heavy, and that the decision wasted all the money invested in the .280 rifle. It's about atomic weapons and is one of the better tours d'horizon that I have read in the magazine, in that while it doesn't get anywhere, the stops along the way are important things to think about. After I get over the horrifying notion that one night of atomic bombing might be no worse than years of conventional war, that is. Also, we look in at the byelection results, not very good for Labour, and have to put up with The Economist ranting on about how agriculture policy has a choice between cheap food (which is good), or dear farming, which is bad. It doesn't. It's going to take both, and the taxpayer is going to have to live with it, and the sooner you get over it, dear Economist, the happier you will be. 

"Latin American Customers" The problem is that those darn Latins keep trying to export their commodities at excessively high prices. We, obviously, refuse to pay, and so they don't have the money to buy from us. So the real key here is to lean on the Latins until they remember their place. 

Notes of the Week

The Berlin Conference at some point turned into a pointless social obligation, and someone should tell the Prime Minister, even if it does break his heart. Labour is in trouble because the TUC wants pay raiss,which are downright anti-British. The new FN rifle is so good and excellent that Labour is a bunch of idiots trying to make political hay for even thinking there is a problem with it, much less saying so in the House. The Japanese trade treaty is being objected to on the grounds that it is a trade treaty with the Japanese. The third year report on the Soviet Five Year Plan has some suspicious bits, especially concerning agriculture. It sounds as though Czechoslovakia, at least, is thinking about drafting its next five year plan in terms of increasing integration of the Eastern European economies. The Economist gets very upset at a comment from the Home Secretary to the effect that even though there is no civil defence, everyone is trying hard, and that's good enough. It's not! Cmd. 9051, a Treasury investigation of the net contribution of Scotland and Northern Ireland to the finances of the United Kingdom (revenues received versus spending allocated) was supposed to resolve a debate over whether Ulster and Scotland were being financed by England, or vice versa, and didn't. The Economist urges us to keep right on arguing, which really doesn't seem that helpful!  The Economist asks whether we should really be worrying about which China is on the Security Council when we can ruminate about whether there should be a Security Council at all? President Shishakly of Syria has been the magazine's sort of politician, getting Syrian finances in order in spite of a complete lack of foreign aid, and even holding free elections. But now he has arrested hs political opponents, probably because he is feeling a bit precarious. When the Government gets out of meat, that means it will be out of the slaughterhouse business. So who will be in charge of regulating slaughterhouses after decontrol? It's an important question! There's a scandal at the Tate Gallery involving it buying a Moore instead of some paintings that I would explain further if I thought you were interested. Politicians don't want to touch the debate over regulation of gambling pools (which is heating up lately), and the magazine is upset about that, too! And about the prospect of Government regulating private (public! The English are crazy!) schools in a way different than they currently aren't doing. Imagine just walking into a private (public!) school and arresting an abusive schoolmaster, and making the school fire him? Imagine! What about freedom? Over in South Africa, the Malan government is pushing its current plan for putting the Coloureds and the English over its knees and giving them a good paddling whenever it likes with no back talk, now with the help of seven United Party Members of the legislature who are going to vote to with the government because they like a paddling, too. Also heating up currently is Spain's position is that Gibraltar belongs to it, give it back! 

Letters

Frederick Leith-Ross writes to argue that convertibility is possible, and is the only alternative than a continuing spiral of devaluation. Douglas Seligman notes a change in The Economist's agricultural advocacy, but the editor explains that he is mistaken, the magazine is just being inconsistent. N. A. De Kun urges Britain to dispose of the Bugandan legislature on the grounds that Buganda compares very unfavourably to the rapid progress in legislature-less Congo across the border. Felicity Palmer points ou that The Economist isn't just inconsistent and unrealistic about agriculture policy, it also gets its facts (about feed prices) wrong. 

 

(Not the same Felicity Palmer, but what the heck.)

Books

Stephen Longrigg's Iraq 1900--1950: A Political, Social, and Economic History is Brigadier Longrigg's admirable portrait of a rich, young country. Frederick Law Olmsted's The Cotton Kingdom is Arthur Schlesinger's single volume abridgement of the original three volume travelogue and portrait of the antebelleum South that was so influential in Britain during the Civil War. It's an odd undertaking for Schlesinger, but he's the famous Harvard professor, so if that's how he wants to spend his time, that is how he spends his time. Walter Heller and others have edited Savings in the Modern Economy: A Symposium, and the review is one of those series of aphoristic comments on one sentence summaries of the papers included. It turns out that savings are a bit more complicated, at least in some economists' minds, than a load of money that the bank can loan out to businesses if they can pay them back at the bank's offered rate of interest. That's so simplistic! Or not!  Sir Olaf Caroe has Soviet Empire: The Turks of Central Asia is a book about Soviet Central Asia that explains that the Soviets are very naughty and the Turks are very nice. George Hoffman and J. M. Houston both have advanced geography textbooks of Europe out, A Geography of Europe and A Social Geography of Europe, respectively. The reviewer preferred Houston's ySocial Geography.Shorter notice is given to a collection of economic papers and W. J. Weston's Law and the Countryman, which sounds like it could be a very eccentric book, but turns out to be a collection of articles from Country Life.

 

American Survey

What a scumbag!

"Economic Balance Sheet" The Administrtation's annual Economic Report to Congress congratulates itself on bringing unemployment down to its lowest peacetime level and beating inflation, but has little to say on whether the "readjustment," or "descent from an overtime economy" will turn into an "orthodox recession" or "something a little more unpleasant." Apparently, the President's advisers on public relations passed on strict instructions that there was to be no mention of "recessions." The Report does, however, imply that there will be a recession in the spring, but a recovery by fall, based on housing starts, which are not falling off,and could, in fact, go higher, and the fact that the stock market isn't in a speculative position, while inventories are falling. We close by worrying about the effect on the rest of the world, and rubbing in the idiocy of the Deputy Secretary's remark four months about how America had returned to sound finance and away from socialistic fallacies like Keynesianism. 

"'Buy American' Shocks" The Department of the Interior's decision to buy a transformer for the Bonneville Dam from Maloney Electrical instead of Austrian or Italian firms for between $70,000 and $140,000 more  before escalators comes on top of previous favourable treatment of Westinghouse over American Elim (the Austrian company) and English Electric raises questions about Republican treatment of the Buy American Act. 

American Notes brings us up to date with the Bricker Amendment, which now has no chance of getting through the Senate, although some kind of compromise language is theoretically possible. The President is upset about the Army's sudden decision to court martial Corporal Dickenson Corporal Dickenson, who initially refused repatriation, and Colonel Schwable, the highest ranked officer to confirm germ warfare allegations.  The price of coffee might be up for good reasons related to weather, but that doesn't mean that there's not evidence of collusion for the FTC to investigate. A commission has recommended an increase in congressional pay is up, and as usual Representatives have to pretend to be against it. The new Republican approach to trust busting, of not busting trusts, is already leading to less trust busting. Thanks for that! 

"Additives or Octanes?" The higher quality gas containing new "additives" that has just been introduced in Britain has been available in the United States since last summer thanks to an aggressive Shell campaign promoting TCP, or try-cresyl phosphate, originally developed for the Air Force. Shells' sales success has led its competitors to push for higher octane blends of gasoline because they don't have an additive that can compete. However, additives in the past have lead to increasing problems with metallic deposits in engines, especially on the spark plug. As the deposits are conducting, there is short circuiting that heats up the cylinder, causing pre-detonation, which the magazine confusingly tries to make clear is not regular knocking. Shell says that TCP helps prevent deposits. Its rivals disagree about how effective it is. The Economist is amazed that one company's study can find that 95% of cars suffer from predetonation, while the other company's scientists find that it is only 5%, but ventures that the better approach seems to be improving the quality of gasoline than ameliorating problems with additives by adding more additives.  

The World Overseas

"Tibet Behind Curtains" India and China are negotiating over Tibet. Specifically, Delhi wants a consulate-general in Lhasa and consulates in Ytung, Gyangtse and Gartok. India does not want to be excluded from Tibet as it has been from Sinkiang, for prestige as well as business reasons, and China can't afford to cut trade with INdia, having had to import rice from India during the famine last year. Unfortunately the Tibetans are being difficult, and the Chinese would like to keep Indian influence out, so there's the problem, right there. The East Bloc is reaching out for more trade, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade is what is currently keeping the United States of Europe, French Socialists are talking about some kind of voting agreement with the Communists, which would be terrible, the Belgians are opening up a college in the Belgian Congo to show that they've put "Exterminate the brutes!" behind them. Although given that it is denying all political power to Europeans residents I have a feeling there might be some thought that there are still would-be Kurtzes out there. We get caught up on the Norwegian economy, which seems to be doing fine, socialism apart, and a Berlin Diary catches us up with the much-anticipated conference. 

The Business World

"Trade with Japan" Japan needs to trade with Britain to earn sterling to pay for commodities from the sterling area, and that is how it will be, too bad for the "traditional export industries." Rubber prices are going in a direction and that is worth a Leader. If you want to know what direction, buy your own copy! At least artificial rubber isn't making a comeback. 

Business Notes

"Productivity Regained" After a rough year in 1953, we review productivity and find a 4% decline in production per head from 1938 to 1953, and a 12% increase in national income per head over the same period. So productivity is down, and it is up! Or we're doing a terrible job of measuring  it, and could stand to worry about it less. The Transport Commission is in a spell of indecision over whether to increase rail rates. There is a disappointing lack of lack of coal going into what will probably be a warm winter. One continues to negotiate the return of Persian oil to the market and the cut British interets are going to get of it. Everyone is buying shares, while gold flows are slackening, probably because the tourist season is over. Bank deposits are down, Dunlop is offering shares, two regional electrical boards are merging in Scotland, America is doing a poor job of managing its bumper cotton crop, although some kind of incentive package is probably forthcoming to make sure that British industry buys all it can. A long list of aviation firms but also financial capital companies have invested in Air Finance, Ltd, which is to provide financing for aviation exports. The Ministry of Supply, which is to say, Duncan Sandys, has been very unsatisfactory on the question of what Britain is doing about supersonic flight. RCA's announced atomic "battery" is very interesting, but details are scanty, although while combing through the literature the magazine found a Harwell study of the effects of radiation on transistors, so that's interesting! The Government has appointed a commission to look into stabilising commodity prices. The British Commonwealth Scientific Office (North America) still exists and is doing its best to liaise with the AEC and other Americans. The cinema industry is strapped for cash, just ask it about that, and not about how much money it makes selling ice cream and confectionaries to its audience, because what possible relevance is that to anything? Vacuum tube production continues to grow like Topsy.

Flight, 5 February 1954

Leaders

"Exeunt, As Expected" If someone paid me a million dollars to guess the point of these three paragraphs, it would be that people shouldn't get so excited when planes are delayed. But I'm cheating because I am relying on Flight's track record. Speaking of which, it is upset that the BEA Helicopter Unit is on hiatus because there was so much "progress" at so little a cost. Because, like all the passenger helicopter enthusiasts, Flight just can't figure out that REGULARLY SCHEDULED HELICOPTER FARE PASSAGE IS NOT PRACTICAL. It is too slow, too loud, too unsafe, and can't land nearly as many places as they say it can. I'm just a French major and I know that!

From All Quarters reports that airport export sales are at a record high, and Flight, bless its soul, takes the perspective that Sandy's statement to the House disclosed "a considerable programme of research into the problems of supersonic flight," with lots of supersonic planes coming on. Uncle George would point out that the F-102 is a flop, and, if he were married to James, he would be hearing about the Fairey Delta supersonic test plane, and conclude that in this case, Flight is right and The Economist is wrong. Frank Beswick did, however, get in the last word by explaining to the minister that he meant level supersonic flight. And he's right in the sense that, James says, the British supersonic fighter has been wrapped up in delay since forever, so it is just the Delta, and not loads of planes. Speaking of stories in The Economist that might or might not be as full of details as the situation calls for, Flight notices that Furness, Withy (owners of Royal Mail Lines) have joined Pearson and Guiness in taking large shares in Airwork. BOAC has ordered five Comet 3s, and the USAF has agreed to take on the major share of expenses for USAF bases in Britain.

"Simulating the Sabre: First Redifon F-86E Simulator Handed Over to the RAF" This is the first mobile simulator, specified in the contract to cost no more than $3.5 million (wait a minute, I have to look under the cushion!) and for delivery within 18 months. So good for Redifon! The simulator is an analog machine,  aside from that not much to say.  RUSI's delinquent members, the ones who snore in the library, and the ones who keep making embarrassing remarks about the help at the top of their lungs were sat down for a lecture on "Applications of Water-based Aircraft" from G. W. Williamson of Shorts the other day. It was mainly about how flying boats were so very important in the Battle of the Atlantic. So if WWII happens again, we won't be ready as it stands. And down France way, a pair of SFECMA experimental deltas have shown up with forward

tails, or canards, which are a good solution to some delta problems, but come with their own problems.

Here and There reports that Italy will be building a licensed version of the Bell 47D, that CF-100s have very long range  for jets, that several private flying clubs contributed to the search for the RAF Washington (B-29) that went down over the Irish Sea, that the Canberra has new official distance records, that two private builders swear that their racing jets are ready for purchase by any playboy sportsmen that might be interested. Dividends really are up!

Aircraft Intelligence reports that the next French fighter will be a canard delta, and meanwhile Dassault says that the Mystere XX (Avon, thin wing) will be cleared for Mach 1.2 in level flight. India getting Ouragons is news again. The Bell XV-3 will be one of those Tom Swift helicopters with rotors that swivel so it can be a regular plane in level flight. The McDonnell F3H-1N Demon is about to go into service with the US Navy, as is the North American FJ-3. 

A. W. Goodliffe, "Pressure Refuelling: A Modern Method and  its Advantages: Components Described and Explained" A very detailed description of a 50psi refuelling system to be used with the "hypothetical" fuel system of a modern fighter such as the Swift or Hunter. It's quite long but very interesting. The "hypothetical" fuel systems are either not much changed in the last ten years or are not being fully described, and the descriptions and drawings are of things like hose end clamps and float valves. 

Correspondence

C. Nepean Bishop is sad that the Central Reserve Flying Schools are closing. R. C. Shelley and R, M. Bruce remember the old days, before the war. O. W. Neumark has thoughts about how instrument gradations should be marked and illuminated, with light intensity variations for particularly rapidly-changing displays. Flight illustrator and aeronautical artist Frank Wootton gets an appreciation with a four page portfolio of selected works.

"Helicopter Forum" Flight reports from same. Various interested members of the public submit the same old questions (and some new ones; rotor life is a problem, it turns out) and get the same old answers. No, there won't be high-speed helicopters, helicopters in every garage, or helicopters landing on Post Office roofs. 

"Small-Turbine Quartet"   Blackburn is almost ready to start producing SNECMA mini-turbines. AGARD research papers are available in bound form, Flight was impressed at the new tractor for pulling Vulcans, there is a two-seat Vampire trainer now, the Colonial Office, Tiltman Laboratory, and the Ministry of Supply are working on aerial spraying for the tsetse fly.

Civil Aviation reports that it has read The 'Bristol' Quarterly article about the Britannia's commercial prospects and is very impressed. Aeofilm is doing commercial colour air photography, the Comet 2 will be amazing on routes like San Francisco-Hawaii, Paris-Dakar, Kingston-Montreal, New York-Bahamas, and Entebbe-Johannesburg. That's quite a selection of routes! The Qantas Constellation that will be ferrying the Queen around Australia is quite luxurious. Flight visits Lufthansa and finds that it is ready to go in full Germanic sprit of efficiency. If you've forgotten about the Cirrus Autocar, here's a reminder that you can buy it as a crop sprayer now. The rights to the Navion have been bought by a new group of American hopefuls. 

The Economist, 13 February 1954

Leaders

"Mr. Butskell's Dilemma" To those unfamiliar with English as she are spoken, Rab Butler is the Chancellor now, while Hugh Gaitskell was Attlee's last Chancellor. Combining their names is a clever way of suggesting that there is no difference between the parties on economic policy. which is silly, but what everyone says. So: Labour backbench MPs want the party to focus on economic issues leading up to the budget, and the wave of wage disputes in particular. And "Mr. Butskell" is for moderation and steady as it goes! So while Labour is going to do that, The Economist imagines what "Mr. Butskell" won't do from the left. He won't argue that the Tories are said to have not delivered prosperity, as under Labour, wages rose by 24%, whereas in the first two years of Tory rule, they have risen 14%. And whereas prices rose 43% in the seven years of Labour rule, they have only risen 10% under the Tories. Checkmate! The other arguments is that prosperity hasn't been shared equally, since dividends are rising faster than wages, but as an eyerolling article later in the magazine shows, this is misleading. Instead he should wait until the next fiscal crisis, due to the American recession, when Mr.. Butskell of the right will have to act. Only it won't come, so he should wait for nothing; and, in fact, push back against "wage-driven inflation" that is pricing out British goods in some markets,which both versions of Mr. Butskell won't like.

"The Italian Danger" Communism. Communism is the Italian danger. Glad to spare you some reading!Almost as long is the Leader about "East-West Trade," which could be good, could be bad, and should definitely be controlled.  A final Leader establishes that the push for pay increases to offset inflation is based on misunderstanding the index of retail prices. An appendix purports to show that dividends really haven't gone up that much. 

From The Economist of 1854, "Safety at Sea." Safety at sea is good, and is definitely the government's business. It's just that it shouldn't do anything about it because regulations are bad. I bet if  you read a real newspaper in 1854 you'd know what is being talked around. (I missed this feature last week,, which was about Prince Albert making some statements about in the realm of foreign policy, which depending on how you parse, as opposed to vaulting, vast sentences full of dependent clauses, the magazine might be for or against. Probably against. 

Notes

The Economist is very impressed by the way that Prime Minister Bidault faced down Molotov at Berlin. The Economist goes on to explain why Molotov's plan to neutralise Central Europe is not on, and especially not for Britain. Tory backbenchers are in revolt over taxes. The Labour  front bench still supports US bases in Britain, which is good, but is getting the vapours over the impact of Japanese trade on Lancashire textile interests. There's to be a board to watch over the nationalised industries, which, the magazine scolds, Labour should be for, but isn't. 

"New Threat in Indo-China" Viet Minh troops are reported to be bypassing the French strongpoint of Dien Bien Phu to threaten Luang Prabang again, on a new axis of advance, and earlier in the year than last time. Everyone is watching closely, as Washington thinks that things in Southeast Asia  have made a "distinct turn for the worse."  As a result, the Administration has sent 400 ground crew to support the French. Sentiment in favour of negotiations in Indo-China is increasing in Paris, in spite of the hard line Bidault took with Molotov in Berlin. The impression being given that a solution to the Iranian oil problem is at hand is quite mistaken, because the Iranians aren't to be allowed to have all that oil money, as they'd just waste it on corruption. For whatever reason this leads on to a chin-stroking commentary on the Aga Khan's recent statement and the possibilities of Islamic reform. Everyone now agrees that Oliver Lyttleton is doing a fine job as Colonial Secretary. He got in and out of Nigeria without starting communal riots, and was only a little in favour of "White rule forever" when he was in Northern Rhodesia. The Economist is sure he learned something from the experience. The Economist scolds White voters in Kenya for voting for only White voters voting. That's just not goint to work, it explains. Rule by all races, or rule by bayonets, for which the magazine expresses a certain attraction. The Ministry of Housing is way over target, so the magazine calls for more private building to take the pressure off subsidies. The Economist went to a soiree with the Prime Minister of Canada, who seems nice, but perhaps a bit hard to follow, so the magazine went to the library, looked up some Canadian Hansards, and got some quotes from Lester Pearson to the effect that Canada expects to continue in its self-defined role as well-meaning neighborhood busybody for the foreseeable future. The Queen's visit to New Zealand, which led to one of the reporters along for the ride commenting that she always thought that Maoris lived in trees, has upset New Zealanders, who think they're not being taken seriously enough. Next up is Prime Minister of Yoshida of Japan, who will explain why Japan thinks that trade with China is a good idea, and we should probably go along since otherwise the Japanese might, you know, like last time. Teacher pensions are an issue because teachers don't want their contributions increased from 5% of income to 6%. The Registrar General's Statistical Report for England and Wales for 1946--50 shows that women are marrying at a higher rate than before the war,

and "there is no longer any surplus of women at any age under 40." The former imbalance was caused by the decline in the relatively higher rate of death for boy babies. One quarter of women marrying between 16 and 18 will divorce within twenty years of marriage, falling to one-sixteenth for women marrying at 23--7. The higher divorce rate has not had teh expected impact on birth rates, so that "although the nation is not yet reproducing itself, the number of potential mothers is no longer falling. "the demographer's nightmare of a rapidly dwindling population is banished . . . " Somewhat related, the Americans need to do something about cases where American soldiers in Britain have babies and then go home and there's no-one to support the baby. Those health centres that were going to be built under the NHS never happened, but group practices are the same thing only on a smaller scale. 

 

Letters

L. Shipman points out that the reason that German exports are doing so well in Latin America is that they are doing a good job of sales and supporting exports. Klaus Betzen of Frankfurt points out that Britain isn't doing enough to sell itself in Germany. T. M. Fitzgerald gets into an argument with the Editor about whether Australia or Britain have the high ground over sterling balances. 

Books

Abram Bergson, Soviet Economic Growth: Conditions and Perspectives is the result of a symposium that is the most important thing to happen yet in applied economics. American experts have agreed that the Soviet national income is increasing at between 6.5 and 7% per year, far faster than any Western country, and with no slumps. Can Russia maintain this pace? It probably can, and the Soviet economy will be four and a half times larger by 1970. The West needs to pay attention to these findings before  it ends up in the same boat as late Qing China. Roy Jenkins' Mr. Balfour's Poodle is about years ago, before the war, and so are Hoover's memoirs, which have reached Volume II, The Great Depression, which does not impress the reviewer, who finds the whole thing enormously immodest, self-righteous, and unreflective. T. C. Mendenhall has The Shrewsbury Drapers and the Welsh Wool Trade in the XVI and XVII Centuries, which is about how the Shrewsbury Draper's Company managed the wool trade for two centuries. The Welsh cloth industry employed 100,000 people in a cottage industry, and how they defended it. D. S. Chauhan's Agricultural Economics and George Goodall's Soviet Union in Maps both get short reviews. The reviewer thinks that Chauhan's treatment of Indian agricultural economics is incomplete, but the atlas is good.

 

American Survey  

"Security by Numbers" Last October, it was reported that the new security scheme has led to the separation of almost fifteen hundred civil servants since the previous June, and in the State of the Union Address, Eisenhower raised the number to 2000. The grounds for dismissal are now so wide that, as case studies reported by the Washington Daily News show that civil servants are being dismissed as "security risks" for reasons that cannot possibly be seen as related to security or subversion, and the original promise that there would be no stigma attached, has not been followed through. Only 11 cases were actually security risks, and the investigations of 7 of those began under the Democrats Now that Congress has triggered the dismissals (and resignations ahead of dismissals), it is going to look at the cases and find out just how incompetent the Administration was, exactly. The NYSE's monthly installment investment plan for stock buying is the latest way to get the everyman involved in investing, and increase the pool of risk capital, too. 

American Notes

The Federal Reserve is now officially for cheap  money because losing elections is bad.

Albert Beeson's appointment to the National Labour Board has raised  another of those questions about conflicts of interest "with which the history of the Eisenhower Administration has been studded." He also appears to be as dumb as a wall stud from the way he trips over his own mouth. The President's package of tax reforms has been sniffed out by the Democrats as a "rich man's tax bill" and another example of "the trickle down theory of prosperity." It seems likely that the revolt in the House will lead to the Administration losing a billion dollars in excise  tax revenue to keep its corporation taxes. The Commodity Credit Corporation has overspent its appropriation and is in trouble, along with the nation's farmers, who are responsible for all the calls for credit in th first place.

The World Overseas

More about the Berlin Conference, schemes for German neutrality, and the EDC lead off the feature, followed by more about the Commonwealth finance  ministers' meeting and the Randall report, from the Canadian perspective, which is that, although the Canadians don't want to be seen as "dispensers of unwanted advice about the United Kingdom and its sterling partners should do," they can't count on the United States for much, should not worry about the US downturn too much, and should seize the moment to allow non-resident current deposit sterling accounts to go convertible, even if there is no reversing course if it proves to be a mistake. France's budget negotiations continue, the Benelux countries continue to deepen their union and increase their exports, in spite of setbacks, planning for elections in Malaya continues although they have a long way to go, the Lagos talks over post-independence Nigeria went well,  Argentinian grain surpluses have put Peron in a position to "take the brakes off" and woo American capital while reaching out for more trade with the Soviet Union and also the Caribbean. All of this activity seems to be emboldening domestic opposition, though. This week's diary of the Berlin Conference is only half a page.

The Business World 

"The Maze of Markets" The booming London and American stock markets show that the market is discounting the American recession, but still seems unrealistic to the magazine. 

So they moved him to the Colonial Office, which he
fucked up by being too liberal and too fascist, at the
same time, until the release of his love letters to the
Crown Prince of Iraq were released after the coup 
there. To the backbenches for you, Lord Lennox-
Boyd!

"Enterprise in the Air" It very much looks like the Government's policy is not for private industry to complete with the public airline corporations, but to carve out private monopolies in areas for the first company to find the werewithal to bid for the license for them.There are two former parliamentary secretaries to the Minister of Civil Aviation on the Labour benches, so they have been able to press the case aggressively in the Commons. For example, BOAC had been developing plans for an all-freight airline on the Atlantic, for which it would have to buy planes, but it was not allowed to apply in June, and in the meantime private services on the same route would not expire, making it very difficult for BOAC to make a business case. This was how Airwork eventually ended up with an effective monopoly, subject to American approval, which has Seaboard and Western crying foul, since it has been trying to get such a license for seven years now, and can't, because it is a nonsked and the regular airlines won't let it.  The minister, Alan Lennox-Boyd, looks very bad.

Business Notes

There will be no changer in the purchase tax. £228 million has been added to the budget by the Supplementary Estimates, but the overall budget hasn't changed because of underspending  at other ministries. A 10% increase in train freight rates will hopefully bring the Commission back to solvency. January trade figures are unchanged, the magazine thinks that the Commonwealth Finance Development Corporation is off on the right foot with its investment in a natural gas pipeline in Pakistan, there has been a hitch in the Iran oil plan, plans are afoot to make home mortgages even easier to come by, because subsidies are expensive and nothing could possibly go wrong. Record steel production raises some questions about whether demand for steel plate will hold up after the current "hump" in shipbuilding has passed. The picture of profit for the reprivatised steel companies is more mixed. Woolworth's is doing well, there are new talks to reshape the European Payments Union, the engine fire that brought the Britannia down is found to be "unavoidable," because of "the failure of certain components under unexpected loads," and is "not likely to require any drastic redesigning of the engines themselves." This means that the Britannia can be expected to go into service only a few months behind the original schedule., but the financial costs of losing the first prototype, with its type approval, will be much more considerable. Domestic coke fuel is off the ration,a merger in the agricultural chemical industry (mainly a need for capital to invest in the new artificial pest control chemicals) and a sales drive for artificial fertilisers show that something is up in the industry. It is guessed that Soviet gold production is at 7 to 8 million ounces and the amount on the market is mainly a sign that the Russians are trying to prove that they really can make the deals they are dangling in front of British and other exporters. Rayon prices are resurgent, lead and zinc prices are recovering from their steep fall last month, the Savoy Hotel takeover fight is very sordid, the price of edible oils is easing for many complicated reasons that probably do not reflect a trend to lower prices in the long run. 

Flight, 12 February 1954

Leaders

"Per Ardua" The Comet crash and now the Britannia forced landing are very discouraging, but Flight insinuates that it is just like the early history of the DC-6, and what a successful plane it turned out to be! We still don't know what caused the Elba crash, but fifty modifications have been devised. The Britannia crash landing has derailed the plane's campaign for a C of A rating, but there need be no  more than a few month's delay to the intended service date of May, 1955. 

From All Quarters reports that Air France is buying more Comets, that the Napier Oryx "gas generator" may "now be mentioned," along with new Avons, Mambas, Double Mambas, Gyrons, and Conways. The Douglas YC-124B Globemaster is flying. Captain  J. Laurence Pritchard gave a speech to the R.Ae. S. denouncing "state-mindedness" and "research secrecy." More usefully, at the same session Dr. D. Williams of Farnborough gave a talk on "Aeroelasticity and Electronic Computors," in which he explained that computers do a lot of calculations so they're a big help working out laborious computations, as in the field of aeroelasticity. The RAF continues to order Provosts, several new appointments in the guided missiles field, of P. E. Pollard to the British Joint Services Mission in Washington and therefore his replacement at Farnborough, W. H. Stephens. A fuller explanation of the Britannia mishap explains that an oil fire broke out in the starboard inner nacelle due to overheating. Which we already knew! 

"The Gas Turbine and Civil Aviation: Precis of Sir Miles Thomas' Sefton Brancker Lecture" The only really new thing I see here is an overt recognition that as new engines come along, notably the turbofan, we're going to be forced to put the engines in pods, American-style. 

Here and There reports that Washington is sending B-26s (Douglas Invaders) to Indo-China, that the Swiss Air Force is going to buy several hundred Venoms, that Mrs. Diana Bixby of California is going to try to beat the 75 hour around-the-world record flight set by Bill Odom in a B-26 (see above), flying a Mosquito. The Under Secretary for Air has explained the RAF's new policy of no more sonic booms than necessary to the Commons. Investigations continue to identify the pilot who flew a Meteor under Clifton bridge last week. Lectures on the importance of consulting industry before specifying radio equipment for new aircraft, the importance of safety in the air, and the Blackburn General Freighter will be heard around London over the lunch hour this week, or at a party already. Valiants are flying out of Brooklands, which, whatever its merits as a speed circuit, is in a natural bowl and has a maximum runway takeoff distance of less than 1300ft, and let's see a B-47 do that! Flight has received an interesting brochure about the ARA's new transonic wind tunnel and associated laboratory, which will be built very soon now. Our Frank Correspondent in Canada has thoughts about trans-Atlantic Comets. They're not enough. You Brits are "squares," he says. Secondite, an insulator based on rice husks, has been demonstrated in London.

John Sydney, "Mantle of Safety: Australia's Flying Doctor Service  Celebrates Its 25th Anniversary: John Flynn's Vision Realised" Four pages on doctors flying to their patients in Australia since 1929. 

Aircraft Intelligence reports that the DH110 is officially the Sea Vicen, Westland Whirlwinds are becoming available in quantity, and Canberra B.2s are being upgraded with some  modifications. The B-36J is being developed for photoreconnaissance, a replacement Convair YF-102 is now available for flight trials, and corrects various control and stability issues evident in the first one. There is conspicuously no mention of it going fast, though. SNCASO has developed its Trident rocket-powered plane into a prototype interceptor, the 9050.A French magazine repors that the MiG-15 has been developed as a two-seat trainer and all-weather fighter, as an experimental variable sweepback machine, in an afterburning version, with folding wings for carrier deployment, with thrust reversal, and with an auxiliary, fuselage-mounted ram jet. W. T. Gunston is off to Germany to visit 2nd TAF, which has Sabres and Venom fighter-bombers now. 

"Heat Problems in Aircraft Structures: Points from the Institute of Physics Conference on Thermal Stress" Supersonic speeds heat aviation structures. Metals lose strength, air crew cook. Very technical papers on measuring these effects, and on insulating planes, follow. 

"Helicopter Forum" Again, not very much of any great interest. Filling out the last page of the report is a new method to plumb, or measure, water depth with weights lowered from helicopters, which sounds a lot more practical than tip ramjets, a Swedish Air Staff report on Russian night fighters, and the formation of two Pilotless Bomber Squadrons in the USAF. The Industry reports changes on the English Electric, Dowty and Rotax boards, the BSI's new standards for dessicants for packaging, and an informative film by the Garringtons firm of the GKN group on forging, We've Come A Long Way, explaining how the company has come from a blacksmithing concern via forging connecting rods to making jet turbine blades. 

Correspondence has E. B. Williams congratulating the GPO on the nice new airmail stamps, "Pedantica" being upset that the new Venom and Sea Venom have no ejector seat, editors replying that the Venom FB.1, at least, does. W. O. Doylend is on about how there should be a model aircraft museum, and J. B. Plunkett of Air Charter, Ltd ridicules some poor American air correspondent who chanced to speculate that the Elba crash was caused by the Comet exceeding its critical Mach limit. 

Civil Aviation reports that various services and airports are seeing increasing usage, Glasgow is getting a new air terminal, Qanta is buying Super Connies, the first production Comet 2 is back at Hatfield after its Entebbe proving flight, Comet services have been resumed, the Avro Tudor has regained its Certificate of Airworthiness after   modifications by Air Charters and Air Traders, which intend to operate it in passenger services to Germany and Nigeria.Pressurisation has been removed, and the electrical and heating systems have been overhauled, is the gist of the changes. Flight gives Lennox-Boyd's reply on Atlantic freight operations in the Commons a bit more space. Britain has one dedicated air freight service across the Atlantic, Airworks, while America has three, Pan Am, TWA, and, to a lesser extent, United. KLM also has a service. On the face of it, America is protecting the "flag carriers" against nonskeds, while Britain is protecting a nonsked against the flag carrier. It is estimated that 10,000 tons of cargo go by air across the Atlantic right now, much of it as makeweight in passenger airlines, but the superior cost structure of all-freight services might allow an increase to 20,000t. This would have enormous implications for the British industry, which might have to buy American to make up the cargo volume, since the Britannia, which is expected to be the most efficient cargo plane ever, is still three years away on the route. As to whether BOAC and Hunting (which also applied) are being excluded by government action, no-one is willing to comment.  

 

Fortune's Wheel gives us some background on the story about the Lykes, an extremely rich Florida family that therefore deserves to be in Fortune, the story about how some people see doctors as money-grubbing and distant, how Charles J. V. Murphy couldn't get Howard Hughes to talk about the "blowup" at Hughes Aircraft, but could get him to take him on an evening flight over LA in his Constellation, which sounds like Hughes, a nice letter about Fortune's modern art covers for a change, a textbook edition of Economics Readings in Fortune, from Henry Holt, and an unusual apology for several errors in last issue. 

Business Roundup reports that even though this is the first time that America has entered the new year officially warned of upcoming hard times, everyone agrees that they won't be that hard, perhaps a 5 to 7% decrease in GNP. That's not even a real recession! Although there are some pretty graphics, the gist of the column has been seen in The Economist. While some "tardy" indicators are starting to turn down, there are signs of recovery in inventories and housing already. I note no discussion of Federal Reserve reflation, but considerable concern that Congress will go too far with tax cuts. 

Buried deep in Businessmen in the News, the successor feature to "Men Henry Luce Would Like To Have Lunch With" is a mention of Dr. Evarts Graham and Ernest Winders, who recently (by which is meant four years ago) demonstrated that cigarette smoke causes skin cancer in lab rats, leading the tobacco industry to start its  own medical research group, and perhaps contributing to the first ever decline in cigarette sales. They may not be businessmen, and they're certainly not going to be in the news buried way down here, but no-one can say that Fortune ignored them, exactly. The fact that "skin cancer" is  mentioned and not lung cancer does seem like soft-pedalling news that the industry won't like, but it might be more complicated than that. Lung cancer is a threat to the smoker; skin cancer is a threat to everyone around them who might not like tobacco smoke in the first place. 

Leaders

"Adjusting to that 'Readjustment'" Apparently Eisenhower was the first non-doomsayer to say that there would be a downturn this year, and by that time he had it well in hand. Nothing to worry about here, folks! A review of Capitalism and the Historians, a collection of essays by, and edited by, five eminent economists led by Friedrich Hayek, finds that historians are terrible. Everyone thinks that it is funny that Volume V of the Great Soviet Encyclopedia came with a razor blade so that readers could conduct their own purges. Everyone also finds it funny that Governor Herbert "'White Supremacy'" Talmudge of Georgia was drunk or something at his latest press conference. Two businessmen with Fortune's ears were maltreated at Newark Airport. Airports beware! Fortune comment sarcastically on Interior's decision to spend $700,000 more on transformers from Westinghouse than English Electric and American Elim were bidding, same story as The Economist but even franker. Also in the news, protection for American watches and hard liquor. Speaking of cognac, it is off to France to see if it is going to have a political crisis forever. Maybe, but also maybe there will be political reform soon.

That is quite the picture. 

Herbert Solow, "The Integrity of the Supreme Court" Based on the unpublished papers of Justice Harlan Stone, Professor Albert Mason of Harvard Law finds that putting Supreme Court Justices on the Nuremberg Tribunals was terrible. 

"The Insatiable Market for Housing" Fortune explores the reasons that demand for housing is so strong and so recession-resistant. The American population is growing, household size is falling, old housing isn't very good, and there is pent up demand from the Depression and the War. Besides, Americans can afford them, and houses are getting cheaper, when corrected for the increasing size of houses. No mention of "cheap money." 

 The Lykes own ranches in Florida, orange farms in Cuba, meatpacking firms, and steamships. They're pretty rich, but very approachable, if you're from Fortune. 

Charles J. V. Murphy, "The Blowup at Hughes Aircraft" Murphy's reporting is pretty extensive, but the gist is pretty simple. The Air Force inadvertently gave Hughes Aircraft a monopoly on advanced electronics by awarding them the F-102 "weapon system" combined radar, gunsight, and autopilot, plus the Falcon missile. Hughes is suffering from very real, and rapidly worsening mental illness, and could not run the company. Eventually, lead scientists Simon Ramo and Dean Woolridge walked out and formed their own companies, which precipitated a very strange reform of corporate government in which Hughes was turned over to a family owned medical research charity. Hughes is out, and the Air Force promises not to issue sole-contractor orders for anything so delicate ever again. Will the Hughes  fire control system be ready in time? We'll see!

There is a board shakeup going on at Stanley. They're one of the companies that does tupperware parties (I decapitalised the word to make it generic!). Which is funny, because Tupperware parties are funny.   

"Biggest Production Tool: American Industry Constructs Ten-Story Giant" The Air Force's 50,000t forging press going in at Wyman-Gordon in Worcester, Massachusetts under the project management of Loewys Hydropress sure is big. It is super big. Gigantically big! Lots of pictures big! Our pictures are much better than Aviation Week's which is why it is okay that Fortune is just noticing the Heavy Press Programme now that most of it has been cancelled. 

"Is the Stock Market Obsolete?" People are less inclined to invest in stocks when they're not going much of anywhere. Will that remain the case? Of course not! Does anyone need to read this article? Maybe --if they're stock investors confused about the various indexes. 

"The Polyethylene Gamble" I'm tempted to give this big coverage as a technology story, but it really isn't. ICI discovered how to turn oil refinery bowel movements into a thin, clean, transparent plastic with good electrical insulating properties twenty-five years ago. Knowing when to raise and when to fold, they sold the American license to du Pont, which has more than proved the American market. Now the patent has expired, and eight other companies are building the significant plant required to produce it. The actual gist of the article is that they might be overestimating market demand, because most polyethylene reaches the customer through third party manufacturers, and many of them mishandle the product trying to cut costs, leading the public to be unimpressed with plastic products. If the public doesn't buy as much plastic as expected, all that expensive plant that companies like Spencer Chemicals of Kansas City are building will turn out to be a waste. 

"M.D.'s Off Their Pedestal" Fortune has read a bunch of articles lately about how some doctors are bad. That makes it a trend! Are they bad? Well, some are rich. ("One-tenth of 1 percent" make $75,000/year or more. On the other hand, the total cost of medical training is approaching $22,000, including foregone income, and further to the other hand, doctors' incomes seem to be declining overall.)